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2301  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best time to buy or wait a little bit ? on: July 14, 2022, 05:59:47 AM
keep 50% of my money in cash in case it goes more down and get good average to put orders like this :

25% @ 15,000$

25% at 11,000$

will have a good average price


That's the best approach you can do when it comes to trading, split your orders in smaller sizes and trade over a longer period of time. Nobody knows exactly when we will reach the bottom, it's predictions and only time will tell if we were right or wrong.


No one knows, but some indications that Bitcoin has already reached the bottom of the bear cycle. I know I currently sound like a broken record, but I was broken record too during the whole of 2019, screaming at everyone to buy the DIP, and HODL. Cool

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Similar to your approach I have been buying bitcoins for the last two months now. Buying every 4 weeks seems like a good interval to take advantage of the dip abs get a good average price. Your 2 orders are fine if the price will drop further. But what if the worst is already behind us and prices are recovering? Than you will have missed out on investing 50% if your money.


If the price is recovering, you buy EVERY DIP, which will end higher than the last DIP, average up instead of average down.
2302  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | 0.28% House edge | Live tables | Baccarat |Slots| InstantWithraw on: July 14, 2022, 05:38:28 AM
Not true Smiley French Roulette house edge is 3+%

Well actually its exactly 2.7% house edge for french roulette

Haha yes you're right, I was 10% off, and you are on the dot, my friend.

Ohh. Haha. I didn’t do the math but I usually feel comfortable that I’m getting better house edge at that game. Maybe the 50% refund gives me the vibe of that.

No need to do math, the house edges of all games are published. And yes, that's why when people "complain" about people who wager on roulette, they shouldn't. 2.7% house edge is about 10x more house edge than Blackjack. In simple terms you'll lose 10x more money on roulette wagering than on Blackjack.

So people should really really not complain Wink

Wind_FURY Indeed rocket dice looks nice and I'll try that on my next farming, autobet is desperately needed! CPI numbers probably going to be more than 9% but more important is end of month interest rate hike ;(


You're right! CPI printed 9.1%, BUT unexpectedly, Bitcoin closed the day with a small green candle near its daily high. I'm starting to have more conviction that we have already reached the bottom of the current bear cycle. Let's wait for end of month announcements for interest rates and the GDP. If rate hike + negative GDP, but Bitcoin reacts strong, it might be TIME to = Buy EVERY DIP! Cool
2303  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best time to buy or wait a little bit ? on: July 13, 2022, 11:10:51 AM

Im planning to buy btc price around: 19500$ at the time of writting .


I have always always promoted, Buy the DIP, and HODL, which soon I might change to, Buy EVERY DIP, and HODL, depending on macro-economic conditions.

BUT, I'm gambling with last week's signature campaign payment from BlackJack.fun, with a 10x leveraged position. I know I'm gambling, and this doesn't affect my savings in cold-storage. I'm merely doing this as an experiment. Hahaha.
2304  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🔻 List of Casinos and Sportbooks to Avoid on: July 13, 2022, 10:08:45 AM
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25. BCH.games         They are converting all Bitcoin deposits to altcoin BCH and you can't withdraw Bitcoin anymore from their casino


Is that true? BCH.games is not only using a currency that's an actual attack on Bitcoin, but the casino ITSELF is a kind of social engineering attack on newbies who might not know the difference between Bitcoin, and the shitcoin called "Bitcoin Cash". OR, not a social engineering attack, it could be a scam. They keep your precious Bitcoins, they give you the fake-Bitcoin.
2305  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | 0.28% House edge | Live tables | Baccarat |Slots| InstantWithraw on: July 13, 2022, 08:19:56 AM

Shower thought. Lower the amount you bet, and play a game that you can "lessen" the probability of losing, and then increase the number of rolls you make per session? Rocket Dice? Cool

I'm not a very great gambler, but I believe game can be very good for farming the hourly/daily wager competitions, and if you have enough Bitcoins, probably also the weekly competitions.

Yes, that's my normal style, lowest house edge, smaller bet size, many rolls. But that's blackjack and I can play maybe max 100 or so hands in one hour. The site always seems to freeze every now and then and makes it annoying to play a lot.

That's why I asked for auto a while back though may disagreed Smiley

Rocket Dice is pretty good though yeah I should check it out more. Thanks!


What's better with RocketDice is less house edge than Black Jack, which varies in Black Jack because it always depends on your cards and the banker's open card. Plus in RocketDice there's an auto-play feature. You can leave the game playing, and farm while you're on the job. Haha.

I'll try it next. I'm currently gambling in a Bitcoin trade with this week's $100. I'm currently using 10x leverage with entry price of $19,500. The current bear cycle's bottom might already be in. Wait for the Fed's announcement about June's CPI. If it's less than 9%, that's good enough to indicate that the rate hikes and the tightening is working. Legacy markets and Bitcoin might surge. Cool
2306  Economy / Economics / Re: Thoughts on CBDC's and long-term effect on the cryptomarket on: July 13, 2022, 06:45:09 AM
States are developing and issuing their CBDCs, that is, digitized national currencies, primarily because they will be much more efficient than their current non-cash payments. For them, this is the most important thing.


It will also be more efficient for the government to control society through CBDCs, and for them, that's the MOST important thing. They don't care if it's more efficient for you to use as long as it's the most efficient for them to control YOU.

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CBDCs should not directly conflict with cryptocurrencies. These are completely different financial assets with different functions and tasks. CBDCs are likely to compete with the current private stablecoins, and as such, they may soon enter an unpleasant period of government regulation and partial bans. But we, in order to discuss this topic, first of all need to see their functioning and interaction in practice.


Financially no, but from a philosophical, and an ethos standpoint, yes. A CBDC world would make owning Bitcoin very very necessary.
2307  Economy / Gambling / Re: KYC casino or no-KYC casino, but with no bonuses/no cashback? on: July 13, 2022, 06:13:10 AM
I believe Macaw.casino is one of the first gambling services that will have a sign up-less feature, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5405538.0

The casino requires the user to make an account for now, but if their schedule for new features are on time, it will be removed and the casino will run everything on top of the Lightning Network. THIS is the ACTUAL point when I opened this topic.

Our questions will be answered when sign up-less feature, and no-KYC are implemented.


Hello,

Bch.games has sign-up less feature. You are registered instantly with browsers cashe. Therefore if you want to delete your cashe just add email to the account and its saved.


I'm very sorry, but I don't like to acknowledge, and help promote a casino/service that mainly uses a forked-shitcoin that claims for itself as the "real Bitcoin", when in truth it's nothing more than a social engineering attack vs. Bitcoin and what it stands for. I started the topic with the context of the possibility of Bitcoin casinos being built on top of the Lightning Network, and what our fellow posters thoughts are about it.
2308  Economy / Economics / Re: Thoughts on CBDC's and long-term effect on the cryptomarket on: July 12, 2022, 10:55:53 AM
A lot of people see this as bullish for the Crypto currency market for obvious reasons, nevertheless I still believe the adoption of these CBDC's will be forced onto us.
Speculation is good but it must done in a ""healthy" not delusional manner. CBDCs have not been launched yet and I know one thing for sure is that the governments love to tax its users and therefore the primary objective will be about taxing and focus will be on crypto and how we spend it - that is where the CBDC will come in. It can also be just another cryptocurrency which can be used in crypto exchanges to buy/sell other crypto - like another altcoin.


Because of the programmable nature of CBDC, and because the real purpose of such a currency is MORE CONTROL, there's a high probability that CBDCs will be programmed to ban its users from sending them to places/services where they convert their CBDC to cryptocurrencies.

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I still dont get why you think that they will be forced upon you. Unless of course you are suffering from the "Everyone is trying to kill me" syndrome.


I believe it will be, the government will use Fear Uncertainy Doubt, and propaganda to make everyone believe that CBDC = Good for their "safety and security".
2309  Economy / Gambling / Re: KYC casino or no-KYC casino, but with no bonuses/no cashback? on: July 12, 2022, 10:22:16 AM
I believe Macaw.casino is one of the first gambling services that will have a sign up-less feature, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5405538.0

The casino requires the user to make an account for now, but if their schedule for new features are on time, it will be removed and the casino will run everything on top of the Lightning Network. THIS is the ACTUAL point when I opened this topic.

Our questions will be answered when sign up-less feature, and no-KYC are implemented.
2310  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | 0.28% House edge | Live tables | Baccarat |Slots| InstantWithraw on: July 12, 2022, 05:41:54 AM
^^^ People complain more about free stuff than not getting anything, it's the weird way of the world. Get undeserving welfare and people complain, get no welfare and there's less complaining.

Anyway, I'm still a little hurting from last week, didn't get far up weekly wager and now wondering if it's too late or bad call to try make it a bit higher with the time left. I hate losing more than I planned but also hate missing out on targets lol


Shower thought. Lower the amount you bet, and play a game that you can "lessen" the probability of losing, and then increase the number of rolls you make per session? Rocket Dice? Cool

I'm not a very great gambler, but I believe game can be very good for farming the hourly/daily wager competitions, and if you have enough Bitcoins, probably also the weekly competitions.

I think most of us here is using the minimum bet when farming wager. Rocketdice, French Roulette and Plinko are the best games oin Blackjack.fun that has a low house edge. I just don’t have the math to determine the housed edge on each games but those 3 are the best to farm. @slaman knew this already since he is doing this for a long time.  Cheesy


I asked the question twice which games were the best for the hourly and daily competitions, but I never received a reply directly in the topic, or I might have not seen it. I only saw the suggestion of Plinko and Roulette in one of Dewi Aries' posts. NOW we know the secret! Plus not bad for farming the hourly competion during times when the casino is not so busy, and with just .03 mBTC per play. Cool
2311  Economy / Economics / Re: Thoughts on CBDC's and long-term effect on the cryptomarket on: July 12, 2022, 05:23:50 AM
CBDCs are an improved or worse version of cash, depending on how you look at it. For banks and governments that want to control citizens more and more, they are an improved version, as they allow tracking each and every transaction made, and it is said that they can be programmed with certain characteristics,

"A CBDC is a currency issued by a central bank, which has the possibility of programming the money so that it meets certain requirements and particularities. If you want, you can even set an expiry date to encourage consumption", says Manuel Beaudroit, in ¿Qué son las CBDC, las criptomonedas que quieren reemplazar al efectivo?

For us users who want privacy, they are a worse version of cash for that very reason, because they increase the control and power that governments and banks have over us.


The more a centralized entity has control over money, the more control they'll have over society. That's never an improved version from the plebs viewpoint, which 90% of all humans are. The real rulers of the world are the top 1%, with the top 9% who are working for them. If that control is a kind of poison for human freedom, I truly believe Bitcoin is the antidote.
2312  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: July 11, 2022, 11:53:12 AM
Self-custody/self-sovereignty over your own property, and censorship-resistance are Bitcoin's main value propositions. This ground-breaking feature has NEVER changed with Bitcoin either trading at $60,000 OR $10,000.

I believe in a few days, I might change the topic's title back to "Buy EVERY DIP, and HODL"! It might currently be another one of "those situations" in a bear cycle again. Cool
2313  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | 0.28% House edge | Live tables | Baccarat |Slots| InstantWithraw on: July 11, 2022, 11:33:45 AM
^^^ People complain more about free stuff than not getting anything, it's the weird way of the world. Get undeserving welfare and people complain, get no welfare and there's less complaining.

Anyway, I'm still a little hurting from last week, didn't get far up weekly wager and now wondering if it's too late or bad call to try make it a bit higher with the time left. I hate losing more than I planned but also hate missing out on targets lol


Shower thought. Lower the amount you bet, and play a game that you can "lessen" the probability of losing, and then increase the number of rolls you make per session? Rocket Dice? Cool

I'm not a very great gambler, but I believe game can be very good for farming the hourly/daily wager competitions, and if you have enough Bitcoins, probably also the weekly competitions.
2314  Economy / Gambling / Re: Macaw.casino ⚡ Powered by the lightning network ⚡ Instant withdrawals ⚡ No KYC on: July 11, 2022, 08:22:03 AM
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Q4 2022: Signup-less feature: We plan to make macaw a complete streamlined lightning experience, meaning all our games will be playable and fundable without the need to sign up to a user account.


This is actually what many Bitcoin casinos/gambling sites should pursue as an eventual objective as a Bitcoin service. Think of a quasi-censorship-resistant gambling service that doesn't need a gambling license because it's powered by a censorship-resistant cryptocurrency.

Macaw.casino, let me suggest something, have a TOR mirror site. Cool
2315  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: July 11, 2022, 06:25:07 AM
No one is trying to call FUD the constructive criticisms against Bitcoin, and the Lightning Network. If you believe that the Lightning Network currently isn't ready for the real world because of low liquidity, and routing problems/bugs, OK. But don't ignore the fact that these are resolvable problems.

thats the promotion, the hype, the hope. .. but please! actually run some scenarios without the pompus utopian best case scenario attempts

actually work it out and see that there are some work arounds but what those work arounds also cause

EG if a route has bad liquidity they then say the work around is for people to open up more channels for other routes. but that ends up with more liquidity needing to be locked up. or dividing peoples value down to have it shared across multiple channels. again causing issues per channel

also again. there is the issue of the hops = X * hops. just to process X
where by running a scenario of the utopian promise of LN being the service everyone uses instead of everyone using the blockchain.
take that down a few notches and say just 1M of coins is locked from an exchange and every one is X hops away.
how much is needed at each hop to also be locked and how many hops is then the distance limit before all 19m coins need to be locked just to satisfy the requirement of the exchanges 1m pegged amount then able to reach customers Y hops away.


I'm not debating your claims, ser. The point of my post is if criticisms are something like what you have said before, that "Lightning transactions are made of IOUs", then that's absolutely wrong and misleading.

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add it all up. see and find the real limitations. and the real issues. observe the bad and dont just dream of the utopia


Who's denying LN's limitations? No one, franky1. We merely don't want FUD. In fact, I believe that it's a limitation that if node operators can't be incentivized by locking their capital in channels, network growth will be slow, or it might also decline.
2316  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: July 09, 2022, 12:05:58 PM
you might want to observe that exchanges do high volume trade and alot of cold wallet to hotwallet movements. so even a few hundred BTC is not a reserve problem for an exchange to lock to a coldwallet for months as their LN stash post peg. most exchanges have hundreds of thousands of coins in cold wallets.. so their reserves are not the problem

however it remains the issue of the routed hops within the network. the more that goes in the more multiples of that is needed just to supply those .. "other people payments" stuff

if LN acolytes/devoted users were wishing to actually have a good network. they would be prepared to actually observe, analyse and bug find issues.. instead of the head in the sand or in the clouds approach i always see

they would not fear making reports about the 'event success rate' of varied amounts. or model the scale of the network of average channels per node and nodes per network and average hops to reach the first 10% of participants, first 50% of participants and the majority 90% of participants..
(bitcoin devs didnt have this fear when they did their block propagation time trial reports)

but nah, LN acolytes fear observing the network and running scenarios, bug finding or actually looking outside the hype.

but hey,
if you want to stay in bliss and avoid stuff, then you will always be left questioning things and blaming it on an egg or a chicken. never realising the more eggs they make the more chickens they make.. chickens that are afraid of everything, and just hop around and never learn to fly.. oh and become very easy to pluck and roast


No one is trying to call FUD the constructive criticisms against Bitcoin, and the Lightning Network. If you believe that the Lightning Network currently isn't ready for the real world because of low liquidity, and routing problems/bugs, OK. But don't ignore the fact that these are resolvable problems.
2317  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: July 09, 2022, 11:40:46 AM
Did anyone read the news about Sri Lanka? The country is currently in a state of anarchy, with its citizens protesting, and breaking inside the presidential residence. It started with a stupid government policy that they will stop importation of fertilizer in a bid to become the first country to be all organic in their agricultural sector. The result, FARMING YIELDS WENT DOWN 50%, causing a food shortage!
2318  Economy / Economics / Re: Sensational Push For Cryptocurrencies As US Fed on: July 09, 2022, 11:20:33 AM
Positive declarations about crypto will encourage citizens to adopt Bitcoin. We need to understand that Fed is not likely to make massive steps towards adopting Bitcoin. Even if they might make plans secretly about hoarding Bitcoin as it might become a global reserve currency, they won't disclose it publicly - you don't want other countries to accumulate at these low prices, don't you?


It's very laughable to expect for it. The Fed's mandate is to maintain the prices of goods and services, and maintain the stability of the U.S. Dollar through policies that are, or should be, "suitable" to the situation.

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I'm not sure about laws and policies, but I think the government should announce if tax payers' money goes towards stacking, crypto right?


The United States is in a position that it does NOT need Bitcoin, but its enemies?  Cool

I believe Bitcoin is one of the technologies that could weaken political strongholds, such as that of the United States, and the G7 Nations.
2319  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | 0.28% House edge | Live tables | Baccarat |Slots| InstantWithraw on: July 09, 2022, 09:33:07 AM
I just noticed that Blackjack.fun has a new promotion in there announcement section on the casino homepage. Vote for the winner on weekly wagering contest and you will get 20FS if the user you vote win the contest.

Procedure: Just visit the Weekly Wagering Contest Leaderboad and click the name of the user that you want to win. There will be a “vote” button once you click the username.


Voted. RealWinner always wins the weekly wagering contest, and the other one who always wins second place is the private user. The other players are merely playing to win third or fourth.

Plus is there a way to know what table games RealWinner is playing? There's probably a strategy in playing with high volume, and breaking even in the games to profit entirely in the cashback rewards.
2320  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin, I salute your final ATH. on: July 09, 2022, 09:10:09 AM
Let's see how this latest prediction plays out  Grin

The price of bitcoin will not stay above $20k for more than 1 month ever again. Guaranteed.

Currently on Day 5 out of 30. The dumbest thing about this "guaranteed" prediction is that Bitcoin can easily spend 1 month above $20K, reach $30K, then drop lower at the end of the year  Roll Eyes

As naive predictions go, this is up there. It completely ignores that Bitcoin can have a dead cat bounce, for multiple weeks even months, before going back below $20K.


What Bitcoin-haters/BSV-Flat-Earthers have failed to understand is that the narrative during the current bear cycle isn't "When will Bitcoin die?", it's actually now "How low can I buy the DIP?" Cool

They will also never admit it, but they are defintely HODLing Bitcoin. sgbett, prove me wrong. You can't.
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