Call it a day after losing 1/4 of the profit again. 

Kind of my traditional way of thinking when I am playing card games, dice, or any type of game that is played fast. I know I will lose because like you said, the house will always win it back. But there's a choice to not let them take everything.

The temptation will pull you back and you cannot stop it. Let it pull you but just for just a little amount and have the mindset that after losing it you will stop. If it wins more and reached your quota then do the same.

All of us who gamble know how much that could be tempting whenever you are betting, and you are winning. You might think that you are the King of the World or something like that. To that extent, it would seem impossible to be taken down not until you lose it all. I know I have experienced that.

Experienced players probably would limit themselves to a certain amount on their balance and just continue another day. I have experienced this, and it's effective. Just have limits, and I think you would be okay.

i think you mean.. what if the prohibition is not as short as the bitlicence (literally hours with pre planned deadline)

where they done a scheme where they banned exchanging in new york after X date.. but months prior told businesses to get prepared and apply for a licence which became active hours after the date.. thus it felt like (for those businesses that applied for licence) as if there was no ban, no delay of service.

i do not see this as being that short(hours) .. but i also do not see this as being as long (over decade) as the 'prohibition' of 1920-1933

i see this as a upto 2 year delay/halt.. with a looming 'threat' where mining is could be permanently banned will be made.. after the 2 year period is up..

but within the two year "delay/halt" they will introduce licences for mining companies that can prove the source of their power is renewable to be active by the end of the 2 year delay/halt period(or sooner).. giving the government upto 2 years to set up the licence application department and regulations departments to over see mining operations.
(it takes time to train new staff in new tech, so dont expect licences being offered in the next few months)

after all if it was just a temporary thing. where 'open/unlicenced uncontrolled mining was allowed after 2 years. mining farms wont care about wanting to legitimise themselves to comply with any temporary delay/halt

..
NY state(local government) used to entice companies in via tax breaks and grants.. this way instead of giving real money away or avoid taking money away from treasury.. they can invent a new 'product'(licence) that comes at a huge fee when they dont want the business as much. and offer discounts/free licences when they want the business.. that way they can control how much mining comes into NY using up the renewable excess capacity, further controlling how much mining happens in NY

(.. all this is my opinion based on what a savvi business man would do if he was a politician)

Thus regulating the BTC miners which "they" might have some rules in the end how and who are the people allowed to mine BTC. This is really not making the cryptocurrency as a whole a decentralized system. Interesting things might happen in the near future as to who's running this show.

here is another perspective..

lets use the scenario of the 2014 bit licence and also the 1900's alcohol prohibition..

if something is previously open and has no laws. a government cant just offer licences/permits to it.. they first need to outlaw/ban/prohibit it. .. to then bring it into their purview (jurisdiction) to then set terms of use in their licence/permits which hey can later sell/offer.

i dont see this as a "permanent ban" scenario.. i see this as phase one of establishing a permit/licencing scheme

I'm quite rational in this respect and I don't get carried away because I'm on a winning streak, or a losing streak for that matter. I think a lot of people put too much hope in gambling and then get carried away and lose too many chasing losses or end up losing what they had won because they didn't stop in time. Not understanding the underlying mathematics also contributes to this.

Every time I gamble my objective is once I hit a good shot in a single game I will stop playing and this call for a day because I know not all the time has a good profit of course this is the time we become too much greedy that we want to earn more.

If you have self-awareness and consciousness you can make control yourself when is your limit already always set a plan if you have a lot of money to wage and do not interfere with the amount go for the endless game but if not make a plan.

still down for me. Two players have made it in to wager but have not used to chat box to explain how. No contact from Admin

does anyone thinks they finally snap?  seem very surprising because they didn't show telltale sign.

Could it be? Yes, but will it be? I do not think so. There is really no reason to do something like that because it will not really be worthy of the profit they could make.

The biggest concern of any business in the world would be to make a profit, and even if you could make a profit with something, if it is not enough then it makes no sense. Think about it this way, if you spent 6 months working on something, and it gives you 10 bucks per month, would you do it? I would not do it even if it paid me 10 bucks per month forever until I die, it just doesn't worth 6 months of my time. So, it is not even just about spending money, even spending time matters in this situation.

I get what you're saying but why is No KYC the proposition for Lightning and not for on-chain? If an exchange or casino is regulated, it won't matter if they're using Layer 1/2/3 or whatever, they can't promise no KYC.

Maybe I'm not understanding why this also helps sell L2 though. When L1 already by default doesn't need KYC, that's been the entire USP of using on-chain non custodial services...

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Very stupid guess about my age, because you could have checked I registered on this board more than 9 years ago... Actually, I think I'm one of the oldest here, but I'm not the subject. I've been through 6 countries of the list you gave, this Spring (yes, I travel a lot), and this is what I've noticed. In one supermarket in France, there was no more pasta, but I went to another one, and everything was normal. In one supermarket in Italy, there was a sign telling not to buy more than 3 bottles of oil. That's about it.

The medias are always over reacting, just like markets, and people get scared, but there's no reason to panic, yet. At least in rich countries.

Yeah, we're mid-way through the year, just months into the winter, so even if 2023 Q4 is the bull run, that's far too short a bear period -- given that we had a whole year of rally just behind us.

Also that the next halving probably needs to be factored into the timing (the rally doesn't come with it but only about a year after it).

Really need the economy to "realise" it's bad though. May job reports was another higher-than expected month in the US so we're again presented with false bits of hope like that.

Boom and bust is a natural economic cycle that has existed in free markets since they began. It is like the sun rising and the sun setting. What you are describing with quantitative easing and quantitative tightening is government meddling in that process which usually ends up going wrong at some point. Quantitative easing, like you say, floods the market with cheap money which occurred after the financial crisis all the way back in 2008, it was jolt to bring the economy back to life which was helpful at the time. However giving away cheap money keeps people happy and makes it easier for politicians. It should have ended after a couple years, with maybe the next ten years paying back the original overspending to balance the budget. They left the money tap on for far too long though and just ended up blowing the balloon up for a bigger burst next time around.

It is almost impossible to predict the Fed’s policies in the coming period, especially during the second and third quarters of this year, but it seems that we will face it.

Either consider inflation as the problem and start withdrawing liquidity and raising interest rates, or trying to accelerate the economy to push it away from recession as the main problem.

In any case, we are facing a state of uncertainty and therefore a lot of markets will be very turbulent during the next few months, and some random variables such as closings in China, food and energy situation will complicate a lot of calculations.

Therefore, you cannot say that the scenario you mentioned will come true.

Yeah, we've all seen this before haven't we? Our parents have seen it before really, and since the 1970s was in the generation they were born in, even our grandparents have seen it before.

Don't even need to look so far away from home, in my tiny enclave in Southeast Asia it's the same old cycles of banking problems, followed by fiat printing, interest hikes, and relentless bailouts. Our most famous CEOs, politicians, corporate moguls have all bankrupted several times in the past decades. Whereas for the regular joe, bankruptcy is the end of adult life, for them it's a chance to give speeches about how they had to fail 10 times to succeed finally.

Bull run in 2023? Not so soon though I think. That'll be too little pain to bear (laughs+cries).

I've read a few articles explaining that a food crisis is coming, I want to tell you something about it. There will be no food crisis for me.
Price of pasta, price of cooking oil, rice or meat will increase 20%? 30%?

That's all right. I don't care much. I can handle it, just like most people in developed countries. We don't spend much on food, increasing that budget by a third is perfectly fine.

I imagine that we all had very high expectations in this respect, but on reflection, El Salvador does not seem to be a country where the population in general is massively adapted to new technologies, so it is normal that bitcoin adoption is slower despite being legal tender. If we add to that the volatility and the fact that the price has not gone as well as many of us expected, I think it is normal for things to be slow.

Regarding the Chivo wallet downloads, I think this has already been discussed in another thread. It is normal for them to decrease, as the population of El Salvador is finite and once practically everyone has downloaded the APP, it is normal for downloads to decrease.

Well many were expecting this month to be bearish because it’s when QT starts. However you need to understand that it was priced in a long time ago.

Look at the yields, everything is already priced in. So keep in mind when it’s very obvious that something is bearish and everyone is bearish the complete opposite can happen. That’s usually how the markets are. That’s why there are many bottom shorters and top longers out there.

Absolutely. For me, Lightning is about cheap and fast payments as well as privacy. It's definitely possible that you also have legal advantages when building something fully off-chain instead of using on-chain payments, but I'm not sure about that.

In general, it's been proven that crypto-only casinos are easier to run long-term and I believe it's actually the standard model today. I may be wrong, though, since I'm not a big betting man.