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361  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: January 08, 2014, 01:58:31 AM
Morici v Hashfast Technologies
Case5:14-cv-00087

http://198.27.67.106/hashfast.pdf

detrimental reliance.   Grin

making promises in a public forum that lead to financial decisions can result in liability attaching, and damages being owed.

Josh, you'd better implement your plans to evade process servers now.
362  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: For Individuals looking to get into the Mining Game in 2014, please read this! on: January 08, 2014, 01:25:16 AM
A lot of these doom and gloom 'mining is the devil' approaches fail to take into consideration what is happening right now.  In the last two hours BTC has shed %20 of it's value...TWENTY PERCENT people!
For a retail investor who has say 5-10k to work with this is a nightmare.  Imagine two people who began their BTC investment today.  One guy bought 8k worth of hardware and started and the other one bought
7BTC.  Now of course no investment is judged by what happens in such a small time frame but that having been said...

Which one of those two people do you think is having a worse day?
Yes, I know there are plenty of days where it runs the exact opposite.  But even on those days the guy mining can watch his existing and new BTC go up too!

I am still really new here and learning but from what I have seen there is a negative bias towards mining that seems to have it's own agenda.
JMO.

Let's take your example for a moment and see where it goes.

So Andy goes out and buys a 2 TH/s miner from scamfast labs for April delivery.  $8000
Brian buys $8000 worth of bitcoin.  10 BTC.

Tomorrow Andy is broke and Brian has 10 BTC.  And it's going to stay that way for a long time.

Fast forward to April:
Brian has 10 BTC.  He might be happy, he might be sad depending on the exchange rate, but he still has 10 BTC.  And he could do whatever he wanted with it at any time.  If bitcoin hit $100k one day and he thought that was too high, he could cash in for $1M and walk away.

Andy still has nothing.  He checks bitcoincharts and sees that the network has crossed 100 Ph/s and is still climbing.  It's going to take 140 days to get to 10 BTC if difficulty stops now, and more like a year if there has been no price appreciation and growth starts slowing.  He better get hashing soon!  Now where is Andy's scamfast machine?  Better check the forums.  Ah, Joe from Scamfast Labs is promising shipment in a couple weeks.  Well that's 1 less bitcoin Andy will ever see, but it's not so bad, I guess, just 2 weeks.  But wait, why is this guy complaining that his January order hasn't shipped yet?  What does that mean for Andy's delivery date?

Brian still has 10 BTC.  Used in hand sytems are selling for 4 BTC / 2 Th/s.  Andy realizes he's a sucker.
363  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s on: January 07, 2014, 02:59:56 AM
Damn Bruno.  These guys have you wound up!

Admit it, were you the buyer of 200 BabyJets in batch one?
364  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Asic miner giving the best return on investment ? on: January 07, 2014, 02:32:13 AM
So which asic miner available as of now would you advise ?

Take a look at http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ bottom of the page for a list of companies selling bitcoin ASIC miners and availability. Butterfly Labs has a 50 GH/s Bitcoin Miner in stock now: https://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage/50-gh-s-bitcoin-miner.html

The best deal on a miner that ships immediately is a Bitmain Antminer. Antminers are far superior, and cost lest per GH than the old, power inefficient, 65nm crap BFL is selling.

The group buy link is here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=392860.0

+1, what Kendog said.

After a little fiddling, you will be very happy.


$17 / Gh/s ?  If losing money makes you happy, just send your BTC to me.
365  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Ice Fury - missing part on: January 07, 2014, 02:25:41 AM
That is a chip capacitor.  You should be able to buy a replacement from digikey if you can find out what capacitance is supposed to be used.

366  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Bryan Micon's Butterfly Labs Scammer Investigation including Josh Zerlan on: January 06, 2014, 08:55:05 PM
The only people you find complaining on Bitcointalk for the most part are competitors or known trolls like Entropy, Bicknellski, etc...

To answer your question though: No there is nothing valid they bring to the table that qualifies as a scam. Just angry butt hurt trolls who can't stand the fact that all their idiotic "predictions" and false claims turned out to be lies and they are exposed for what they are. So they try to flood the threads and forum with more junk in hopes that people will forget.

Respectfully, you've been just as guilty of that. It's been a very eye opening thread, to say the least.

I have no dog in this fight, just wish there could be some sort of dialogue..."hey, this is what you've done wrong, and here is the evidence" and counters of "We haven't been perfect, and here's how we're working to improve."

Name calling doesn't restore BTC or help reputations.

You can distill it down to this:

BFL knowingly made fraudulent representations about the performance and delivery of their ASIC hardware to generate sales.  Fraudulent representations were continuously and repeatedly made by Josh to keep the flow of order money coming in until the company could cure their default and actually ship hardware.  Delivery actually occurred more than a year after the original promise dates if some reports are true.

Josh in particular would regularly promise shipments would begin in 2 weeks when it was definitely known to be false as silicon fabrication schedules would make his statements impossible.

Josh, as an early adopter of Bitcoin should be enormously wealthy, and a very happy camper.  Instead he is filled with rage because essentially everyone in this community considers him to be lower than dogshit.

Personally I think someone who made a large investment in BFL could make a compelling case for damages resulting from detrimental reliance upon BFL's public statements.  But I was never stupid enough to spend a dime with them, so I don't particularly care beyond the entertainment value of the whole soap opera.
367  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] on: January 06, 2014, 05:28:17 PM


Zumzero:
If you do not like Bitcointalk, feel free to try your luck elsewhere.  If you feel that the powers that be are conspiring against you, consider voicing your concerns in the Meta subforum.  This is not the right thread for airing your grievances.

If I was zumzero I would be banned. Why the hell do you think I am zumzero when I've been posting on here for 4 months? Is everybody zumzero?

You are a fool. Admin has access to my ISP address and zumzeros, mine has remained the same for 4 months, zumzero lives in another part of the country to me and his IP is banned. Do you get that? Too much for your little brain crumbs?

Tell us how many weeks you think are in a year again, last time you worked it out to be 48 didn't you.

Good job outing yourself as StuartUK.

You posted "zumzero lives in another part of the country to me" as Stuart a while back.  It must get annoying trying to remember which sock said what when you are talking to yourself all day long.
368  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Bryan Micon's Butterfly Labs Scammer Investigation including Josh Zerlan on: January 06, 2014, 04:21:22 PM
Well, I just read through all 27 pages of this disaster of a thread.

Can someone take the time to distill exactly what the "scam" is?

I get that they delayed products a long time and had questionable refund practices during the delay, but is that it? Is there something wrong with the products themselves?

If you actually did read the thread you would know.

"Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"
369  Economy / Securities / Re: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] on: January 06, 2014, 12:15:32 AM

There is a lot of front end data handling in SHA-256 that you skip for bitcoin proof of work.  Off the shelf modules are not very efficient.

FPGAMINER maintains a very nice set of open source VHDL libraries for bitcoin though.  I assume Ken mostly copy/pasted his work.

The easic press release was from their director of marketing.  I always found that suspicious.  Just a sales guy crowing about a deal.  Not an engineering guy.
So, they possibly could have seen this opportunity as a marketing move more so than anything else? "Lets do it, we will get a lot of great publicity even if it is total BS."

Possibly.  Most companies are happy to take money from you.

People here read it as an endorsement from easic.  I read it as easic announcing they landed a bitcoin customer with the subtext of "Anybody else out there?"

As I have said before, easic trades off initial NRE and faster time to market for lower performance, lower silicon density, higher power consumption, and higher unit costs.  Since the time to market advantage has been lost somehow, easic is largely a write off going forward.  Ken's unit cost per Gh/s is probably higher than Cointerra's retail price.
370  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Historical analysis proposal: Mining vs. Buying on: January 05, 2014, 11:35:55 PM
Avalon batch II had positive ROI in BTC.  Batch 3 was ~30% loss.

ASICMiner hardware had to be horrible losses, except perhaps some of the last batches of USB units.

I think KNC I was a loss, as well as bitfury. But I didn't buy those so I couldn't say.
371  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Cloud mining that allows me use my own pool on: January 05, 2014, 07:14:48 PM
That would require them to actually own as much hash rate they're selling.  That's asking quite a lot from "cloud mining" services.

LOL.  Too true.

It's never ceases to amaze me at how Bitcoin participants consistently reward the least ethical people in the business.
372  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Bitcoin mining vs investing on: January 04, 2014, 03:46:01 PM
This subject has been tackled many times.

Buying Bitcoin mining hardware versus buying Bitcoin is a risk.  Sometimes you can end up with more Bitcoin buying gear, sometimes you end up with less.  Sometimes you end up with a lot less.

The mining market goes through cycles where irrational actors distort the market and make it a bad investment.  Since early this spring, the market has gone from irrational, to bat-shit crazy in a few cycles.

To be successful with mining you have to compete with the irrational actors throwing their money down a hole.

Most of the winners to date have been the people standing with a bag at the bottom of the hole.  :-)

Think mining bond sellers, mining investment sellers, cloudhashing, equipment flippers, and manufacturers.
373  Other / Off-topic / Re: Happy New Year (CST) or: I haven't lied or spread falsehoods since bet was made. on: January 04, 2014, 02:02:01 AM
Lol what?

Seriously! Some bitcoiners have referred to the bet as a bribe. At the onset, I received a handful of PMs/emails suggesting that I shouldn't post anything at all to secure the win. I opted to post my ass off, calculating ~900 posts. If any one of them contained a lie, I'm sure Josh would have brought it up then, not waiting until January 1, 2014, to start reading ALL my posts penned since November 8th.

I could see how people would see this as a bribe.


The same folks would really be pissed off if they learnt that while at Inside Bitcoins (LV) I told Josh excellent talk and later congratulated him/BFL for filling all the back-orders.

Excellent talk?  Did you actually listen to it?

Retailers will build their own mines for free transactions?
If 50% of miners decide to reject a transaction it will never process?

Josh's talk was a mangled mess that only demonstrated that he doesn't really understand bitcoin.
374  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Split from: A call to the Custom Hardware community: Please let the world know about HashFas on: January 01, 2014, 04:27:20 PM
Remember Tom from bASIC Huh
He did the same thing,just before he closed shop...............he paid most everyone back,but............  Roll Eyes
A clear distinction in Tom's case is that there weren't absolutely unambiguous statements made to customers that any refunds would be the full amount of Bitcoin paid.  In the case of HastFast case people (thought they) learned from bASIC and asked for, and received, clarification on this point. HF had learned too, and made all the right promises— full refunds of the amounts paid, investor funded, MPP to cover reasonable increases in difficulty, a named professional design time, etc.

Perhaps the mistake that people keep making isn't that they're failing to as a particular question or sniff out a particular red-flag. Perhaps the problem is just trusting at all for something this substantial when failure leaves the defaulting party holding all the cards (and all the coin).

Next time someone shows up asking for pre-orders with promises development paid by investors not pre-orders and full Bitcoin refunds we should demand using a trustless multisig escrow in the blockchain to eliminate the risk of a failure to make good on the promises.


Hopefully people will learn, and the terms of sale will change.

I doubt there will be any positive impact though.  It's too easy to attract fresh suckers with Google ads.

The expectation should be terms of sale that align your interests with the supplier.  When the supplier already has all your money, he really doesn't have much incentive to deliver.  It actually costs him money (shipping at least).

Paying fully in advance for gear that is not ready to ship immediately is essentially saying to the supplier, "I don't care, do whatever you want, there's no urgency about this".
375  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: "The mods are in on it!" [OT from VMC thread] on: January 01, 2014, 08:00:15 AM
What do you want— if its active threats, sure— I'll remove them just to keep the tone more polite.  But disclosing someone's name?  I do not have a flyswatter big-enough to put a cork back in the genie.

There is clearly a PATTERN.

If you can't moderate based on that what good is it having moderation.

There is a concerted effort to defame people and lie and having had to report more than 20 to 30 of these alone from Inaba on my reputation at what point does a sanction get implemented? I get you are busy and have a life and all but at some point you know what is happening here right. I am just one person that has been lied about continuously by the "pro"BFL types and Inaba himself.

What can you do? Warn em. Ban em. Right? It isn't about freedom of speech or openness it about people purposefully intending to derail every thread that negatively reflects the REALITY of the BFL situation. At some point you have to be an honest arbiter in this do you not?

I do think you're being too hard on gmaxwell specifically.

The problem is far above him.

Hint: it would be the guy who profited by withdrawing all his funds from the pirate ponzi before it collapsed

There are social and business networks driving activities on this site that simply aren't visible to the casual visitor.
376  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: What are the actual good companies out there? on: January 01, 2014, 07:17:40 AM
The asic market is still very much a gamble.

I personally think Cointerra is the best organization in the running right now.  I met with their team, they do have credible technical backgrounds and they are demonstrating good performance against their schedules.  But there are plenty of pitfalls to catch even the best engineers in product development.

Bitmine appears to be good as well, and they will have smaller devices that might fit your budget better.

Wait a month, and a lot of uncertainty will be gone from the market.  But the backlog of orders from the winners might be 6 months at that stage as well.

Mining is not easy money, no matter what the lucky few might tell you.  Don't play with money you might actually need.
377  Bitcoin / Hardware / Meta-thread on the moderation of HashFast threads on: January 01, 2014, 01:42:35 AM
Concerning yourself with the future actions of others is a waste of energy.
The future of others is also the future of Bitcoin.

If small independent miners keep losing their shirts on deals like this we'll end up in a case where only huge consolidated operations with captive manufacturing will be profitable. The end result would be an enormous centralization of hash-power which would undermine the security assumptions in Bitcoin, and result in the ultimate failure of the cryptocurrency... which wouldn't be in the interest of anyone currently mining or holding coins.

Besides, the future actions of others may include my friends and future friends. Not everything is about making a profit denominated in coins or dollars.



You really didn't care when it was BFL ripping people off, so what makes this different?  Is it that you are one of the people that were deceived?

Don't get me wrong, I've been screaming about this for 18 months now.  But I'm surprised to see this new attitude from you in particular.

If you want to improve things, as a mod you can easily have a positive impact. Abolish all discussion of hardware that hasn't shipped in volume to mining speculation.
378  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: New Topic on: January 01, 2014, 12:13:31 AM
I am talking about nearly every thread created by BFL pitching their ASICs in the late spring / early summer of 2012 being hidden in off-topic.
Hm? Link me to some of them.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83985.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89922.0
I'm sure there are many more, but that should be enough to make the point.

"I'd be treated with more respect if I paid 18K at a car dealership." isn't a thread created by BFL pitching their ASIC.

The other is though, heck if I remember why it was moved— and it was _probably_ me that did it, as I think I've done most of the thread moves in the form. If it was it might have been because by the end of it was totally offtopic and I wanted people to start new ones, or it could have just been a mistake.  I'll ask that it be moved back.

A lot of both the PRO and ANTI BFL people behaved in ways that made me think they were double-agents really shilling for the opposite side. I've seldom seen behavior so reprehensible.

It got badly out of hand.

Of course, in the same time frame if you said pirateat40 was running a ponzi scheme, or mining bonds were an investment designed to part fools from their money you would be flamed into oblivion.

It's a shame the message of "I'd be treated with more respect if I paid 18K at a car dealership." didn't get through.  The idea that it is reasonable to pay 100% upfront months in advance of delivery has cost many, many people on here huge chunks of money.  I did spectacularly well investing in FPGAs that everyone thought were worthless because of the fraud perpetrated on this community by BFL. 

Better yet, they soaked up most investment money interested in Bitcoin so difficulty stayed largely flat from June '12 to Feb '13.

Thanks Josh! :-)
379  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: New Topic on: December 31, 2013, 08:57:08 PM
I am talking about nearly every thread created by BFL pitching their ASICs in the late spring / early summer of 2012 being hidden in off-topic.
Hm? Link me to some of them.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=83985.0

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89922.0

I'm sure there are many more, but that should be enough to make the point.
380  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Total Hashrate Forecast Q1, Q2 2014 (Community work) on: December 31, 2013, 08:51:31 PM

AMD buys components for 100s of millions of boards.  

You are off by orders of magnitude. AMD sells less than 1M high end (game grade) videocards per quarter. And thats AMD, consider the bazillion OEM's that sell cards that are price competitive, yet are much lower volume, probably in same ballpark if not below some bitcoin asic manufacturers 6 months from here. Sure, AMD and nVidia will have a volume pricing advantage, but its not going to matter for this comparison, and its not going to be anywhere near a factor 2x.

Quote
Packaging costs for the kind of silicon being used here often higher than the silicon.  

Packaging is priced per ball typically. The bitcoin asics arent that high pin count, there is no way it would cost more than $10 per chip. More likely $2-5 in volume. FWIW, I calculated using $10 in packaging cost, though I think $2 is probably closer once they achieve volume's of 100K's.

As for MCM's. If it were more expensive to package 4 dies in a chip than doing 4 chips, why would they?  You might argue for watercooling that the cooling is significantly cheaper, but even KnC is using MCM's with off the shelve air cooling.

Quote
And yield can suck at both the silicon level and the packaging level

Its not going to suck for everyone all the time, which is what matters. And yield shouldnt be a problem, considering these chips have dozens of "cores" that can be disabled if defective. They should achieve very near 100% yield if you allow a few bad cores per chip. Anyway, I assumed 90% yields, which is probably low for these chips.

Quote
That just gets you to a bare board.  To get to a system level you still need cooling (high performance = high cost), a case, and power supply.

Monarch doesnt have a PSU. SHould miners include that in their ROI calculation? Yeah. WIll they? Doubtful.  Many still have piles of PSU's. And even if you dont, a PSU doesnt become worthless after one year or when mining is no longer profitable. As for case, look at KnC. Just 2 sheets of plied aluminum. Cant cost more than $10 in volume, if that. You can buy full ATX cases with fans for that much.

BTW, chip cooling is included in that BOM. In fact, its about the most expensive part of the videocard.

Quote
All that puts you in the range of $400 / Th/s cost at best.

I dont think so.

Quote
Then you need to account for overhead.  Each of the professional companies have staffing on the order of 10 people, many of whom command high salaries.  Offices, health care, travel and marketing all have to be shared over the units sold.  Let's assume your typical company moves 50 Ph/s in 2014, and has $2.5M in operating expenses.  (that would be tremendous sales, and low costs).  That would add another $50 / Th/s to the system cost.

Yes there has to be a profit margin to pay the overhead. Im calculating BOM. In most businesses a 10% margin is what it takes to operate. Put it at 20% if you want. But keep in mind, once difficulty has gone up that much that market prices approach marginal cost, the alternative for those asic vendors is shutting their doors.

Quote
Prices will come down, but not as much as you think.

Lets check back in 24 months.

In 24 months it won't matter.  You were talking about the next year.  In 24 months if bitcoin survives, there will be 14 nm devices on the market and pricing will be totally different.

Your packaging numbers are reasonable for 5W chips.  For the 500W, GHz devices we are talking about now packaging is going to be more on the order of $25++.  Getting clean signal and power into these devices is difficult at high clock speeds.

Good point about the size of the card market. I overlooked AMD acting as a foundry in that space. It still leaves miner hardware manufacturers orders of magnitude too small for the pricing you anticipate.

I don't think any hardware manufacturer will operate with 10% margins.  This is not a commodity market.  It's an extremely specialized niche with a volatile underlying valuation and huge regulatory risks.  Investors will be looking for greater than 50% margins AND offloading of risks to customers through pre-payments.

Finally, there aren't enough hobby miners to support the suppliers currently in the market.  So, yes, all in costs per Th/s will absolutely apply to purchase decisions going forward.
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