DGB trading update:

David Halsey, the author of Trading the Measured Move, likes to say that markets move in measured moves, then extensions, and then straight up. When markets get to that straight up phase, he loves to say “it’s straight up, or not at all”.

That’s where DGB is right now: straight up, or not at all.

He also likes to say that only dumb bulls buy at highs.

That having been said, when markets are going straight up, it’s totally unpredictable. That’s because they are completely emotional markets at that stage. There’s no way to put good targets on the board. For example, using all kinds of TA references, the possible targets range from 900 SAT to 1800 SAT on this current thrust higher. Obviously, 900 SAT is much more likely from a probabilistic standpoint, but there’s really no way of getting a good gauge on things. The last good maximum extension target was 813. That why it’s “straight up, or not at all”. Watch the 15 minute charts for the first trend failure and then dump everything you’ve got left.

Because there will be a full 50% retrace of this move, IMVHO.


P.S. @Xandan, First places happen at highs.

Okay, that's only a power of 3 from here, and I calculate there'll be a 100 or so, and that's being generous. More than from all the other top 20 coins combined once they have got to their own equivalent 1/16th of their own theoretical ratio adjusted BTC value? Were you serious with that? Did you really think about it before you said it?  

I think you'd better go back over your math.

Got to get to .000064 first though. Have fun with that.

As for today, there are 18, and one who has a "net worth" of 1.8 billion DGB, or roughly 30.6 million USD. No bag holders? Alright, I'll agree this is probably not a bagholder. Perhaps it's DigiByte Holdings? https://dgbholdings.com/ Or Rip Van Winkle? Whoever it is, they haven't got the memo yet, or they're asleep at the wheel, or it's DigiByte's girlfriend (someone with lots of blind faith). Or all three of the above?      


https://chainz.cryptoid.info/dgb/#!rich


https://i.imgur.com/XOnB8oi.jpg

My pleasure. And now for yours?

Fantastic coding, wouldn't you say? (In case anyone ever really wondered why so much resistance to documentation.)

I reported all the most evident wallet issues just after its release by the way, without response from the Dev. Did that at the same time I was asking for release notes (which I couldn't find because they didn't exist). Oh well. Tried my best to be a constructive part of something viable anyway, even if it didn't work out.

Caveat emptor.

Yeah. But that was like pulling teeth for a couple of years. Better late than never though . . . I suppose. 

No doubt about it. This is one of the biggest "no-brainers" I've seen in my life! And Keiser's nailed the dichotomy! (Edit: But I kind of like LTC as a store of value too!   )

And it's still relatively cheap . . . but this just might be where the buck stops.  


https://i.imgur.com/fzAOJaV.jpg

Based on a strict particular ALTcoin to BTC ratio, the most undervalued of my current favorite candidates for immediate price revaluation are:

NXT and SYS, both extremely solid 1st generation coins that are more than 500 times undervalued.

BTS and STEEM (already mention in my previous post) are both more than 250 times undervalued.

Want a stalwart that's guaranteed to always be there? How about LTC? 84 million total eventual supply is 4:1 with BTC. How long until LTC trades at $500? So, by that measure, LTC is 20 times undervalued.

Turn this equation around and you've got extremely good risk/reward on these, what I consider to be, phenomenal opportunities, again, as is central to this thread, as long as we're not witnessing a P&D on a massive scale that's beyond imagination. (I know it's hard to buy the highs . . .)

Those are my "stars" ATM. There are tons of 2nd tier coins ... XMG, GRS, DMD, NLG, XMY, etc., ... that are even more undervalued and worth watching closely, but I expect those to correct more than my stars and to give us second, and even third chances, to repeat the experience, but we'll have to see how things develop on that first.  

That’s certainly the “other side of the coin” - “what we’ve known until now” - but assuming that things will always be the same never works forever. Regimen changes can cost a lot of money to those entrenched in outdated thinking. It’s important to avoid falling into that trap, and, well, that’s the reason for this thread.

I think we can all agree that the question about reasonable valuations for solid performing products like STEEM or BTS, to name but two examples, is not a question of if, but when. Those are two stellar examples, Freudian slip intended, but there are many more. Many more. LTC is not going away anytime soon, rather it will be trading at its 4:1 ratio with BTC sooner or later, don't you think?

Sooner or later. At some point there’s a paradigm shift. Sooner or later. Agreed? Could it be happening now?



As I just outlined above, sooner or later we’ll get that new paradigm, why not now?

Japan is getting very crypto friendly very fast. Look out if institutions like the Japanese Government Pension Fund starts getting involved (sooner or later, right?).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Investment_Fund

Money’s number one priority is self-preservation, and there’s big money on the outside looking very seriously at cryptocurrencies, and, in my estimation, already moving into cryptocurrencies in a big way that’s going to get much bigger very soon (but you already know my opinion on that).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-09/bitcoin-soars-over-1700-2017s-best-performing-currency

Man, they're all over the place! And even more undervalued! And better? Perhaps, but that's a decision you'll have to make.

Look around you.

Good going! You know the old saying? Nobody ever went broke taking profits.  

And while it was 5000 times undervalued at 20 SAT, and 1000 times at 100, now it's "only" 200 times. Risk reward has changed at lot and now DGB's also playing in the big leagues. The challenge will be to stay there.

Didn't get a fill on this run. Oh well. Next time.

Can we say goodbye to Pump and Dump? Has the era of ratio adjusted valuations finally arrived?

I first commented on what I identified as the first major influx of fiat capital flow into crypto over a year ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1095434.0

Now a year later, others are starting to get wise too.

http://www.coindesk.com/second-wave-bitcoin-price-growth-may-just-beginning/ (The author’s referring to the 2nd wave *up*, or the 3rd wave in Elliott Wave terminology.)
http://www.coindesk.com/800-growth-q1s-top-performing-cryptocurrencies-posted-big-gains/
http://www.altcointoday.com/billionaire-investor-holds-10-percent-of-life-savings-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/japanese-investors-might-be-fueling-the-next-altcoin-bubble (Take note that P&D legacy influences the author’s title and conclusion – preconceived notions will get you your head handed to you.)

And the articles are becoming more and more proliferate every day.

If you accept the thesis that this “new” money knows basically nothing about the technology itself and only knows that some small part of its portfolio needs to be allocated to this emerging economic reality, and if one of the pillars of modern investing is diversification, then we can conclude that this new money will be spread out over a “basket” of cryptocurrencies. By no means can we even begin to think that non-tech money will target specific cryptocoins. This new money will most likely be targeted at the sector as a whole.

And how will valuation be analyzed and estimated? It will be done just like it’s always been done: by ratio adjustment. If BTC is worth “a” and XYZ coin has a supply 10 times greater, then XYZ will be worth “a” * 0.1. Very simple. Extremely simple. Ultimately BTC will be tied to the USD in the same way, just like all currencies are tied to each other. Of course, there are fluctuations in their relative pricings based on wider economic factors, but just as we never see a 10% overnight change in the EUR/USD, soon we’ll never see huge pumps and dumps again.

I think we’re going to see huge pumps that DON’T dump, and that take prices up to their corresponding valuation levels.

Will we see that in all coins? Take a look at this and answer the question yourself: http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

If your answer is no, then I agree with you 100%. There are tons of shit coins, tons of abandoned coins, tons of scam coins, etc., etc., that will die in the waste bin of crypto history.

Will the rest all go up at the same time, or more or less “in sync”? My analysis says they won’t. These things begin slowly, gain traction, and then go full steam. It’s not necessarily an overnight phenomenon, that is until you get to the Elliott wave 3, which I believe we are entering, but even then it’s a “process”. The whales get wise and stop dumping once they realize the ride is going to be longer and higher. Their resources are also limited (especially in comparison with the huge amounts of ever growing fiat coming into crypto) and they need to be selective and thus drive the prices of a limited number of “early winners”. Their selectivity in turn is seen by the new fiat coming in who fill their “baskets” with the outperforming names. It’s very circular and perhaps even somewhat self-fulfilling. As the “old timers”, the whales as we better know them, sell to the new fiat at much higher prices, they then “rotate” into lesser known cryptocoins, drive their prices higher, and sell once again to the new fiat that keeps coming in. Rinse and repeat until, at some point, there are no more viable candidates left to “invest” in and all the winners are "fairly" priced. Has this process begun already. Will your coin be included in the winning groups? And which group will it be in? The first to rise? The second? Or will it ever make it at all?

Total market cap is still less than 10 percent of Apple’s market cap. That’s just Apple, and just to name a very famous case that is often cited when making relative comparisons of public companies. Now, put Apple into the relative context of a 13 trillion dollar M2 money stock just in the US (more than 50 trillion developed economies combined money stock), and it’s just a drop in the ocean.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

This writing is not definitive, nor is it meant to be anything more than food for thought and something to create lively conversation on the subject where more data, opinions and perspectives are added to the mix. I "invested" less than 45 minutes in this, so please forgive the lack of footnotes and exhaustive argumentation. The idea is to start a conversation that I hope you will engage in and enjoy yourself while doing so (and perhaps even make a little more money too!).

For the perhaps 50 or so coins that really are viable, I think we can say goodbye to P&D and hello to real ratio adjusted valuations.

What do you think?

Something along these lines?  


(You can google it by the way.)

Get this: I've got BTC in a correction already! The internals are correcting lower while it's still rising! I bet 2000 holds as short term resistance and a range develops between 1600ish and 2000 . . . that lasts into mid-June? ? ? ?

Look at the early cycle BTC counter trend leaders like DASH, for example, for confirmation.

The FAVs are all rising. I said this before (but someone thought I was only talking about DGB . . . damn, got to grow a brain there, or learn to read): it's a rip roarin', ball bustin' bull market. Watch total market cap double by July (and that's my conservative estimate). Even DGB will rise!  

I'll buy in the 175-200 range first though.

DGB is always last in the cycle.

But 1000 is possible sometime in the next few weeks. Who knows? This is crypto!

And it's in a major bull market.

Total market cap will have to increase x more than 10 times before even equaling Apple.

800 million!!!!

Even DGB will go up, so relax.

Just got to hold your nose and buy.  

BTW, SYS is even more undervalued than DGB (relative to BTC).  

And it's night and day!

Oh, but the genius is in the code.  


Add: Bullish above, bearish below, 395.

Check out what a successful 2nd tier 1 generation coin looks like: http://syscoin.org/  Or at least a potential survivor.

I'm obviously not talking with them.  

DigiByte wasn't/isn't the only entity I've talked/been talking to.

Open source does not mean your product, especially target market specific strategies, for example, is equally "open".

The elements of surprise and rapid implementation are critical to this project's success (fully compatible with all current technologies in place). The community gets nothing more than information on an as needed basis regarding all marketing, and the long term rewards, of course. ;-)

It's do or die with the 2nd tier 1st generation coins.

I've got something that greatly ups the odds of making it a do.

Offered at 10,000,000 DGB (when it was at 80 and had a dip to the 60s after that, and BTC in the low 1400s still), it was priced as a giveaway.

But priced, nonetheless.

The reason for the NDA and its escrow account is obvious.

Another blown opportunity for DGB.

But, yeah, your premises don't work in this case. There isn't time and all the niche possibilities are all already taken . . . almost.


P.S. Who's said goodbye to whom? Please read what I've written. I said that this wasn't something with the community, but whoever want's to gain troll fame in my book (meaning the best you're going to get out of me is that I read what you say but completely ignore it), please be my guest, here or wherever you like. It's your prerogative. Knock yourselves out.



@ghostycc, It ain't anger. What's that mobster saying? It's just business.

Please! How many times are you going to ask something that's been answered 3 times already? The 0.001 question again? What is it that you don't understand about my answer? And it's childish to suggest that somehow there's a connection of some sort.

You know, this isn't with the community, but if you insist, it will be with you. 

There’s one other concern mentioned here that I haven’t addressed. I’ll admit that this may look a bit sudden and somewhat dramatic, but when I saw what Jared said this morning, I said to myself, this is just unacceptable.


When he said something similar to me last year, as mentioned earlier today, I attributed it to immaturity and inability to field very direct questions, but when I saw the same thing again this morning, said with such condescension, I couldn’t help but reiterate publicly that documentation is good, not bad.

When his response to that was character defamation, I realized that this guy is capable of shooting himself in the head, and I asked myself WTF I was doing here. Okay, with a cost basis of 22 SAT, I knew exactly why I had come back, why I had tried to get him to take DGB development seriously, etc., but the question now was WTF was I *still* doing here after realizing that nothing had changed with respect to long term viability and that this guy was even more unrefined than ever.

Nevertheless, being the ever hopeful person that I am – often to my detriment – I gave him a chance to set things right. We all saw what he did.

No thank you. I have enough information to go on, thank you, and even though this may look like a surprising change of heart, put into the context that goes back to 2014 and seeing that nothing has changed, it is clearly anything but an instant reversal. I’d call it a culminating event that made everything crystal clear and left me with no excuse what-so-ever to keep on trying to justify a long term hold for DGB, or any kind of collaboration, for that matter.

Last year, under similar stress, we saw a similar outcome.

There was something of a “lite” version the year prior.

All interesting development periods with a failure to capitalize.

All for all the same reasons.

Alright, I admit, on the surface it looks sudden, and to a certain extent it is, but when seen as a culminating decision based on years of experience, I think we can agree, it’s not really all that “sudden”.

Most certainly this is an issue I have with DGB. It’s not with the community. I’ve pushed this community hard in the past, but this time I have no intention. I’ve errored in the past in this regard by having unreasonable expectations with regards to community participation. No, I have no issue with you. We see each other on other boards, and we’re all friends.

Oh, and the fact that it happened today? Coincidence I tell you. You know, I obviously don’t control when the DGB god speaks and what he says. ;-)

I rest my case. Everyone has said their piece and anyone with a cent of common sense can see what there is to see here and make their appropriate decisions.

When someone attacks you publicly accusing you of trying to extort them when they actually turned down the business deal of their lives, and then so calmly turns the world upside down and calls you the attacker, well, we all know what that is, or at least those of us who are successful do (because being successful means staying clear of those types).

Good luck Jared.

_______________________________________________________________________________ ________________


I made lots of money with DGB and I'll always remember it fondly, something that could have been great, but it's time to say goodbye. Always best to leave while you're a winner.

Oh, by the way, did anybody think to ask just how DigiByte got on CryptoID? They're soooo busy that they can't even document what they're doing (not even release notes? that should be a cut and paste of the coding . . . more or less . . . anybody with just a little exposure to that knows what I'm talking about), can't get anything right with lightweight wallets, DiguSign, etc., and complain about you reporting the issues, do you think it was DigiByte? Hell no! They don't want you to have that much blockchain info. They don't want you to have a rich list. Has anyone checked to see if what Jared said yesterday really jives with the real data rich list?

If you are answering these questions with a "no", or "don't know", do yourself a favor and do a reality check. That's just one of many examples too. And if you're asking what the others are, go back and read again, starting in 2014. And if you're too lazy, then save yourself the pain and start looking at the 2nd generation cryptocurrencies - many are already doing what DigiByte says it wants to someday do (without a road map of course, we all know the drill by now, maybe it'll change again, but by that time someone else will have it implemented - a day late, a dollar short). With these kinds of attitudes, complacency and arrogance, they wouldn't be able to make this thing successful even if someone gave it to them.

Just my assessment. Good luck with yours.

And don't blame me. 350 is still a phenomenal cash out level.

Cheers