I don't think it has to be an either/or.  Certainly a fiat pump in price is one measure of success because it enables many people who have been involved for a while to keep being involved with less concern.

Eventually the fiat/bitcoin price will stabilize.  The non-elites can get in now (and obviously previously) and if it is a speculative, or in my estimation, a protective investment, the people who are in now will greatly benefit between now and bitcoin to fiat equilibrium.  Probably 10-100 X in fiat terms from here.  So the non-elites can already be on the playground before the elites show up.  Once equilibrium is reached, there will be little reason to get out of crypto, and more reasons to just stay in it.  People in at any point since 2009 could be well rewarded for patience instead of in/out trading.

:-)

If there is more use, there won't be "big sales" on the exchanges and the volume of coins for sale will dry up.  The only way big buys will fill is having the price of the remaining coins go up until the buy is filled.  Eventually it will reach equilibrium where there are few coins for sale, but all are immediately snapped up.

I guess time will show what happens.  An important point is that once people don't need to leave crypto, then there will be fewer sellers since no one needs to sell. 

I think time frames do compress in some things like this, at least for a while. 

Reminds me of "internet time" from the mid-late 1990s though.  :-)



*Since many may not be familiar:
 https://www.technologyreview.com/2001/04/01/275725/the-myth-of-internet-time/

The fiat volume will increase though as the fiat price does. The absolute volume of Bitcoin exchanged doesn't need to increase.  The available bitcoin on the exchanges may even drop as usage increases vs trading. The more usage getting coins off the exchanges, the better.

He might be right. Or not.

Every time is different.  Now you have corporate use really starting with MSTR, Tesla, etc being just the tip of the iceberg.  With taproot, tapscript etc you have plenty of new use cases coming in defi etc.  Speedy trial to activate is bullish in the fiat market.  With large uses coming online and lessened new supply the trajectory is up.  With corporations buying hundreds of millions of dollars at a time vs individuals buying thousands of dollars the economics has changed.

I'll tell you in 2025 whether the newbie was right though. 

A decentralized digital currency (bitcoin by the subject) is being "imposed" or people have "freedom".  

Which is it?  Bitcoin is about freedom, freedom to use it or not.  Having someone impose using it by force is pretty much the opposite of liberty.  Adoption is happening whether or not people are being forced to use it.  People see the benefits of bitcoin as a way to short the money-printing political people who are willing to destroy everyone for their own power and monetary benefit.

As far as "Adaptation" - bitcoin is adapting all the time, as are many other cryptos.  Hence p2sh,lightning, taproot etc.  It is growing and improving all the time. So yes, adaption is possible, it has happened for more than a decade. I am not actually sure if you meant "adaptation", meaning changing, or adoption, meaning getting people to use bitcoin.  If you mean adoption, well, see above.

In short, both adoption and adaptation are possible and happening without any need to "impose" something on anyone else.

Bitcoin is much more portable.  If the people of Venezuela, North Korea, Russia, Europe, Cuba, Africa, Central America, South America, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore or Biden/Warren/AOC's USA (etc) needed to flee authoritarianism (socialism, fascism, communism etc), crossing a border with gold would be much more difficult than with bitcoin.

The number of people who are willing to take from one in order to give to another in order to buy their votes is increasing.  Look at the US Democrat party willing to sacrifice one group to satisfy another.  To them, equality under the law is just something to say, not really believe.  Of course, they are the party of Southern slavery, so what do you expect.  Their philosophy hasn't changed, just the language used to hide their true motives.

Gold is also decentralized, why say otherwise?

You are right.

People are misled by the promise of “free” stuff. They don’t know nothing is free, they are paying one way or the other.  It is the same US political party that owned slaves to get “free” stuff from them and the same philosophy that still thinks it is acceptable to force one person to provide for another. The US Democrat party hasn’t changed their philosophy, only the language they use to describe it and the method of implementation. Warren believes that if her policies “only effect a 5 or 10 thousand” people, it is acceptable to be discriminatory and to force them to work for her for 8 months a year without pay.

Evil at heart.  Their government policies are leading the US and eventually the world to enslavement and destruction. The siren song of promising one person they take from someone else and give it to them is strong.

Agreed, probably good news and I’m sure he’s not the only one doing it.

Price growth will probably result in fiat stability which then lessens the need to get out of crypto to transact.

True, we aren’t there yet though. Another order of magnitude or two, eg 10 to 100 times, of growth from here will help stability. Of course the stability by then might still have 10s of thousands of dollars in volatility, but as a percentage, it will likely be less.  Time will tell. 😀

So a 1031 exchange.  It is a great illustration of the NFT insanity going on.  

I will sell this post as a NFT also, but, since it is quoting Elwar's, makes reference to the US tax code, is part of this thread, and makes reference to current event of NFT craziness, I will start bidding at 2 BTC.

A true collector will want to collect both this post and Elwar's, plus probably every post in this thread in order to maximize the value proposition.


Edit:
It appears this was moved to digital goods as the mods seem to have missed the (potential) sarcasm.  Now with the edit, this should probably be higher priced.

Final settlement means of the payment can't be reversed. Credit cards can be reversed for 3-6 months. I didn't write the tweet either but that is almost assuredly what they meant.   

Now, 3-6 months is a really, really slow payment system.  How can someone buy coffee with it?

I think it is more likely that the bigger skeptics are the entrenched governmental so-called elites. They know that bitcoin will undermine their ability to skim a percentage every year off of everyone's fiat, seemingly below the radar. So I think the banks are one level removed from the true people who are afraid.  People are catching on that governments are not there for their benefit. The governments are there to benefit the people who are running them so they can control everyone else. They do it by trying to divide people by immutable, irrelevant characteristics such as skin color so that people don't notice the evil that the so-called elite is foisting upon them.

As time progresses, bitcoin will likely become more stable.  At some point - in my opinion perhaps another 1 or 2 orders of magnitude from here - it will reach fiat equilibrium and will then become quite stable and able to be used as a currency.

Given the penchant Soros has for authoritarianism, he must only be investing based on bitcoin's investment thesis, not its freedom thesis. 

Yeah, I was attempting to relate personal experience with people, should've been clearer.  :-)

Or they can just buy now.  And could've at any time since 2009. It is all about freedom and choices. People have the freedom to make good choices in buying or not. They can think long term (e.g. buy Bitcoin and keep it for 5-10 years) or short term and go out and buy Starbucks coffee everyday and forgo $2190 of Bitcoin per year. ($6/day * 365).  

I've told people about Bitcoin since mid 2010 and the thesis behind it. Most of those people chose to prioritize a new phone ($600 in 2011-2013) would've bought a lot of Bitcoin. Even at $30 in 2013, you'd have had 20 which are not worth ~$1.2 million.  Or they bought Starbucks every day.  Or they bought expensive wine or beer or liquor.  

Everyone has the same opportunity, and it is the ant and the grasshopper repeatedly.  People want to be the grasshopper short term, but then when the ant is rewarded, they complain.

Investments compounded over decades add up even outside of Bitcoin, but few people will be patient for 50 years. They want what they want now, and then pay the price later.

Their fear is loss of control of their people which means loss of their own power and money. Evil statists the lot of them.  Trust people to be free to make good and bad decisions and live with the consequences of doing so.

Fake reasons like money laundering etc are excuses to control.

Time will tell, but people said the same thing in 2010, 2011, 2012, etc.  Those people sold at $5.  Or $30.  Or $500.  Or $1000.  Or $5000.  Maybe they needed the money and are happy about doing so, maybe not.  It was their choice in a free (at least in some places) world.

If you *need* the money for something, certainly sell, but blanket statements like that have been proven wrong many times.  If it makes you happy, sell.  If you are stressed about the ups and downs, sell.  But don't do it just because someone says "logically that is still not possible and still very far away." It may be a long time, it may be short.  It really depends on you and your goals and what you consider "long" and "short." 

I don't think anyone ever thought it means "never ever sell your BTC".  What it means - at least to me - is that you don't sell until bitcoin has reached fiat equilibrium and then you don't need to sell because you'll be able to transact in bitcoin without needing to convert.  If usage continues to increase, whatever the use, whether fiat inflationprotection, buying stuff, speculation, an ETF, smart contracts etc, equilibrium will be another order or two of magnitude from here.  So another 10 or 100 times in fiat terms from here, or potentially 500k to 5000k in USD terms.  In early 2011 people were saying "dollar parity won't hold" and thought $30, $100, $800, $2000, $10000 etc. was a pipe dream, let alone $50-60k.  Another 1-2 orders of magnitude is certainly possible, who knows when.

At the time when the initial drunk HODLING post was posted, bitcoin was around $800.  All the people who were shouting "bitcoin is crashing" and other nonsense sold.  He held.  I don't know when or if he's sold yet, but if so, he has done well.   It has been the same story since summer 2010 when I first read about it.  Every time bitcoin goes up and then goes down some.  With trading, you may get lucky or unlucky, and lose it all.

The way to get "diamond hands" is to buy and wait.  (I used to say mine and wait, but that ship seems to have sailed for now for many people).





* And I saw his post just as he posted it and though, "this is the dumbest thing with HODL" and look at it now everyone is using it, although it is still idiotic, so what do I know.