So I would venture to suggest 'bring[ing] this back into peoples heads' is not helpful seeing as it has as far as I can see nothing useful to add to the discussion other than responses illustrating the multitude of reasons why it is so useless when comparing to usd/btc charts.
I have to say that you, judging your response, seem to have at this point a better understanding/ability to critique said charts. I agree with most of that you have to say with regard to the usefulness of the said chart, as I mentioned in one of the prior posts I was simply judging it from a quasi-aesthetic stance. Seeing similar patterns etc. I have to say if everyone put as much thought into stuff they post onto here as you did then this would be infinitely more educating than it is at times. ...
Looking at these charts trying to predict the future is wasted energy. You could as well open a fortune cookie to see what the price is going to do.
I couldnt agree with you more, but as humans we are trained to see patterns in (all) things. This is the speculation thread though so if we are gonna be using fortune cookies anywhere then no better place than here. But to reiterate you are right it is somewhat useless, which also lead to me not directly giving a definitive answer in relation to the 'where are we now on there' question. Thanks for your compliment  Please don't think I am an authority on charts etc. I'm part going by what I've learned from others here, part putting apparently disparate facts and observations together and part making shit up that I don't really know anything about  |
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Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !? Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today. My guess is they might treat them with a little more care. However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays. Also we can't necessarily expect - even were people to play with their bitcoins more fast and loose - for that in any particular month to be reflected in the profit and subsequent dividend. What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat. However I'm tending to believe evoorhees when he says there's stuff going on behind the scenes on the development/advertising front so we may well be seeing that on a more significant rise again soon. As an aside, does anybody know of any fundamental reason the stocks are on the rise again? I suspect unless we see a large dump bringing it back down it is because those who were taking their time over a couple of weeks dumping every recovery have finally reduced their holding sufficiently to stop, thereby allowing the demand that had never quite disappeared, to have their effect on price, thus encouraging others who had been waiting to see if it would bottom out do do likewise. Either way, on all counts I have nothing to complain about and will just use this opportunity to thank dooglus once more for continuing to provide this data in visual form Cheers |
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What if we are still in the bubble? We had some crashes before the last one, wich recovered very fast, but some saw mt.gox lag stopping everything. What if this last crash is like them, just bigger because mt.gox lagged much more and was unavailable for like a day or more? This would mean that crash will recover soon. Price is already increasing.
You mean that the bubble froze mid-burst like this (I never tire of looking at that photo)?  If so then what do you think are the reasons its bursting did not continue or is not continuing to accelerate (let alone show signs of recovery) right now? If you believe it was a bursting bubble then is the assumption it 'should' have burst back to zero? to single figures? to where? And on what basis do you believe this lower figure is a more 'valid' or 'correct' evaluation than the price currently traded? |
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... I just wanted to bring this back into peoples heads since we are looking at charts, or supposed to be, but this is looking awefully similar to the 30d charts of BTC OK, with this image being so prevalent I'm guessing I'm not the first to break it down a bit to see if there is anything of value in comparative terms to be gained from it but I'll have a crack at it anyway... What would one expect the volume to look like on the rapid drop? Assuming the 'mean' (I'll get to that) represents a stock value reflective of the underlying asset value/expected return then should one not expect the total of the sales for the duration of the total drop to be somewhere in the region of the total purchases from take-off (plus the amount that takes it under the 'mean')? Even if it is nowhere near that I would still expect to see immense amounts of volume from those with 'fear' and 'capitulation' getting out with no intention to return. In other words if this was what was going on with Bitcoin one should expect to see the biggest volume of sales coincide with the biggest drops in price. But what if most of the people and most of the substantial holdings from the various stages of the build-up just step out of the market altogether for the drop - or sell speculatively a small proportion of one's holding upon seeing what's happening with the intention of buying back in - and maybe even bringing even more money to the table towards the bottom? Again, where would one expect the main volume to be seen then? Oh wait... looks like lots of coins have changed hands in the last phase of the dip...  Indeed. Yesterday saw the 24h all time high for bitcoin volume on MtGox with 550k BTC, beating the previous one at 400k BTC during the bottom at 2$. As labestiol points out the biggest volume here is as it hits the bottom. Let's zoom in a bit...  We should be wary of reading too much into this apart from anything else because the lag, MtGox going off-line and activity around that. However, it looks to me like it didn't take much to trigger the initial drop and the volume came in with buying pressure when it was first thought it had bottomed and was about to start going back up. Likewise I think, (though not so obvious*) with subsequent drops. In virtually all cases (other than immediately after MtGox came back on line) the big buying has been on the bottom or on the rise. This suggests to me a vast amount never got near the market because: - It's held not by speculators in the first place but by those more interested in the bigger picture;
- It's held by speculators who would not touch a fast-moving market run on a broken trading engine with a barge pole;**
- Their bid orders were pulled off the order book as soon as it became obvious this was no mere blip in order to wait until the price got low enough to buy back in.
I would venture to suggest (accepting the iffy accuracy of the picture due to MtGox) that the market was moved immensely by a small number of people and not a large amount of coin. In which case why is it not climbing today as rapidly as it fell? Simply I would venture to suggest because there's no need for it to. There's no rush. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere in a hurry. There are still some who believe bitcoin has a value related to its use and who believe that to be lower than what it is. And they - along with the nervous who got bitten over the last few days - are reluctant to jump in too soon. But Bitcoin's use isn't dependent on it having a value of a particular size. And this gets me onto the last point. That first illustration is to do with stocks. The 'mean' is not a mathematical mean. It suggests there is an underlying value backed up by the company's assets, customers, trade and dividends. Bitcoin has none of the above. Those who say it has 'no intrinsic value' are to a surprising degree correct so it could have no value in principle. However in order to be of use it has to have 'some' value in terms of fiat for people sending money abroad or spending it with service providers to be able to swap in and out of fiat. But for those purposes as I said it doesn't matter how big or small that 'value' is. The 'mean' in the illustration represents a steady line upwards but unless the vertical axis is on a logarithmic scale this can't represent the adoption of bitcoin either - not by numbers of users, numbers of merchants, number of transactions or of anything. So I would venture to suggest 'bring[ing] this back into peoples heads' is not helpful seeing as it has as far as I can see nothing useful to add to the discussion other than responses illustrating the multitude of reasons why it is so useless when comparing to usd/btc charts. *Why I think it is not so obvious is that people were trying to get back in at every sign it may be bottoming out. ** I'm still struggling to get the mentality of those whose reaction to seeing a broken trading was to panic and try and sell on it. If they really don't understand Bitcoin well enough to see nothing was going to happen to it and that the the only option they could see was to trading blind on a market that happend some time ago then as harsh as it sounds maybe it's not such a bad thing they lost their shirts and went. |
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New fiat money is incomming next week from people who wanna pick up some of these cheaps coins.
Remember that real money transfer to exchanges takes about 3-4 days in most countrys. That's money which was send to exchanges right after the crash happened.
I'm thinking Gox will now be wasting their time with a lot of those verifications. Then again, I often tend to underestimate how illogical people can be. That's why I'm not rich. Is your suggestion Richy that the 'logical' people who are in the verification queue will not buy? You've earned my respect with past posts so I'm intrigued as to your thinking behind this. As I wrote in my big post earlier I have been struggling with the reasoning behind the belief that it makes less sense to buy today when the price is so much lower than it was last week or even two or three weeks ago when it was last around this price. I may have got you wrong but if that is where you're coming from I'd appreciate some light being shone on this one. |
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*Pokes head out of bomb shelter*
Is....is it safe to come out yet?
Thank you First post to make me lol for some time |
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Two of my co-workers who hold no coins have been following the bitcoin market since I first told them about it in 2011. Both asked me today for advice on opening & funding exchange accounts and upon hearing about the typical delay involved in getting funds to an account enquired whether I would sell them some of my coins for cash.
Do not underestimate the number of interested parties who have been sitting on the sidelines thinking they have missed the boat and are now chomping at the bit to get in. The difference between now and 2011 is that btc has already demonstrated that it can rise from the ashes once. That is a very important difference.
I wasn't on site today but received a call this afternoon from the project office where two or three were asking how to buy. They had been telling me they were thinking about it for some time and once they got reassurance from me that nothing substantial has broken and there is no imminent threat they've decided to take advantage of this price drop to jump on board Unfortunately with UK banks being amongst those with the most to lose it is still a pain to buy bitcoin here but I reckon at least two of them will figure it out. |
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Wow, I don't know why I put myself through it but I have finally caught up with this thread since I went to bed last night (though I have managed to get other stuff done in between)! Some of the accusations that there was too much bull circle-jerking going on were I think not without some justification but at least it was generally fun and bear put-downs were on the whole good-natured. In contrast the bear circle-jerking seems to have quite a nasty feel to it and I really don't understand why. From what I understand most of them did quite well from the big drop but they hardly seem in celebratory mood. For those whose intention from the start was to use bitcoin as a trading vehicle who managed to make tons of money and are in the process of walking away successful: Congratulations and good luck with whatever you move onto next I don't get coming on here with big 'told-you-sos' and proclaiming the death, or at least the long-time crippling of bitcoin. If you're done what do you care? Why is it important to you to share your opinion in such a manner. Bye If I were going by the mood here as to what's changed I could be forgiven for thinking the price going back to where it was a few short weeks ago is going to have a devastating and long-term impact not only on the price of bitcoin but on its acceptance in practical applications for the foreseeable future. But despite my diligent reading up here and elsewhere I am failing to see one reason why this should be so. Bad press? Gimme a break! It's been mainly rubbish press all the way and the better press has tended to focus on its potential not so much on its meteoric rise in price. The big drop tells me there was a substantial amount bought on the basis of price hype and it is those naiive speculators along with the profit-taking speculators (that's not a criticism by the way) who, along with the ridiculous MtGox scenario, have caused the drop. But I know I am not alone in having just held on the way down as we had held on the way up and I suspect there are many (together representing a significant amount of coin) for whom the last couple of days means very little. Whilst I can understand why what just happened may 'feel' just like June 11, to conclude from that that it is 'just like June 11' is to ignore everything that has been going on over the subsequent years and especially this year and last and this month in particular and instead purely to focus in on the rise and fall in price. Is the claim that it is useless as a medium of exchange reasonable considering there are two days when you could with bad timing have been left with not enough money to buy what you'd exchanged your fiat for? For the very few who were doing this for the very first time in the last couple of days they might have been put off but what about all those who have benefited time and time again from increases, sometimes not insubstantial, when the market was going the other way? Are they suddenly going to decide Bitcoin is a bad idea after all? And volatility? There seems to be a bear consensus that the big drop means Bitcoin is useless as a store of value. As a store of value with a predictable any-time-accessible fiat valuation of course it is - and if it took this drop for anyone who bought for that reason to click that it is volatile then they really didn't do any homework before jumping on board. If they constitute a high enough proportion of those who just lost out and cashed out then they may well cripple the price for some time but not its utility. But I have an inkling a more substantial proportion of the money held by those using it as a store of value are those who are confident because of its potential that there's a reasonable chance it will at least retain its value. I understand to many the high risk v. high depreciation means it is considered as an 'investment' but it is still storing value (just riskily and with potential ridiculous gains). I am sorry for those who lost their shirts even whilst not feeling too sorry for them for having ignored all the warnings and gambled more than they could afford to lose. I am pleased this big drop has happened because it means we're unlikely to attract the same kind of money in any significant amounts for some time. You can repeat 'your investment may go down as well as up' until you're blue in the face but the chart with a drop like this is much more powerful as a lesson. I don't mind the speed at which the fiat price of bitcoin will rise again. It would be handy if I were able to sell off a couple at a silly profit but I don't need to. I just think it is inevitable - and probably quicker rather than slower simply because that's how ideas spread by networks of people. Also if Bitcoin is ever to be playing its gov't-abuse-protective role say in a small village in one of the more despotic countries in Africa so a mother can sell her rice for bitcoin to buy her vegetables for her kids we need to be thinking such trades will likely be in satoshis which also means the price per whole bitcoin will be immense. I'm not saying it will or it won't but I think it could - and that in this day and age it could happen a lot faster than many people imagine. And I'm quite happy to play my small role in increasing the odds that this comes to be. Thank you for reading Thanks for the thoughts; I am a fan.  One small correction: The women in the village in Afric would be using silver grams rather than bitcoins as she does not have a computer or an android or even electricity or running water for that matter. But, she's still 'on our side' as she's using a deflationary store of value that is not easily controlled by a central bank. Thanks You may be right but not for many for long if the mobile telephony adoption rate continues as it is has been of late. One of the delights is that developing countries are not bound to go through the stages represented by a gradual roll out of land-line networks, the growth of phones in homes, mobile phones, smart phones. They can easily (providing a means of charging them is found - for which solutions must be being found) simply skip to the latest tech which will also give them access to everything you and I have on our smartphones not least bitcoin apps |
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Wow, I don't know why I put myself through it but I have finally caught up with this thread since I went to bed last night (though I have managed to get other stuff done in between)! Some of the accusations that there was too much bull circle-jerking going on were I think not without some justification but at least it was generally fun and bear put-downs were on the whole good-natured. In contrast the bear circle-jerking seems to have quite a nasty feel to it and I really don't understand why. From what I understand most of them did quite well from the big drop but they hardly seem in celebratory mood. For those whose intention from the start was to use bitcoin as a trading vehicle who managed to make tons of money and are in the process of walking away successful: Congratulations and good luck with whatever you move onto next I don't get coming on here with big 'told-you-sos' and proclaiming the death, or at least the long-time crippling of bitcoin. If you're done what do you care? Why is it important to you to share your opinion in such a manner. Bye If I were going by the mood here as to what's changed I could be forgiven for thinking the price going back to where it was a few short weeks ago is going to have a devastating and long-term impact not only on the price of bitcoin but on its acceptance in practical applications for the foreseeable future. But despite my diligent reading up here and elsewhere I am failing to see one reason why this should be so. Bad press? Gimme a break! It's been mainly rubbish press all the way and the better press has tended to focus on its potential not so much on its meteoric rise in price. The big drop tells me there was a substantial amount bought on the basis of price hype and it is those naiive speculators along with the profit-taking speculators (that's not a criticism by the way) who, along with the ridiculous MtGox scenario, have caused the drop. But I know I am not alone in having just held on the way down as we had held on the way up and I suspect there are many (together representing a significant amount of coin) for whom the last couple of days means very little. Whilst I can understand why what just happened may 'feel' just like June 11, to conclude from that that it is 'just like June 11' is to ignore everything that has been going on over the subsequent years and especially this year and last and this month in particular and instead purely to focus in on the rise and fall in price. Is the claim that it is useless as a medium of exchange reasonable considering there are two days when you could with bad timing have been left with not enough money to buy what you'd exchanged your fiat for? For the very few who were doing this for the very first time in the last couple of days they might have been put off but what about all those who have benefited time and time again from increases, sometimes not insubstantial, when the market was going the other way? Are they suddenly going to decide Bitcoin is a bad idea after all? And volatility? There seems to be a bear consensus that the big drop means Bitcoin is useless as a store of value. As a store of value with a predictable any-time-accessible fiat valuation of course it is - and if it took this drop for anyone who bought for that reason to click that it is volatile then they really didn't do any homework before jumping on board. If they constitute a high enough proportion of those who just lost out and cashed out then they may well cripple the price for some time but not its utility. But I have an inkling a more substantial proportion of the money held by those using it as a store of value are those who are confident because of its potential that there's a reasonable chance it will at least retain its value. I understand to many the high risk v. high depreciation means it is considered as an 'investment' but it is still storing value (just riskily and with potential ridiculous gains). I am sorry for those who lost their shirts even whilst not feeling too sorry for them for having ignored all the warnings and gambled more than they could afford to lose. I am pleased this big drop has happened because it means we're unlikely to attract the same kind of money in any significant amounts for some time. You can repeat 'your investment may go down as well as up' until you're blue in the face but the chart with a drop like this is much more powerful as a lesson. I don't mind the speed at which the fiat price of bitcoin will rise again. It would be handy if I were able to sell off a couple at a silly profit but I don't need to. I just think it is inevitable - and probably quicker rather than slower simply because that's how ideas spread by networks of people. Also if Bitcoin is ever to be playing its gov't-abuse-protective role say in a small village in one of the more despotic countries in Africa so a mother can sell her rice for bitcoin to buy her vegetables for her kids we need to be thinking such trades will likely be in satoshis which also means the price per whole bitcoin will be immense. I'm not saying it will or it won't but I think it could - and that in this day and age it could happen a lot faster than many people imagine. And I'm quite happy to play my small role in increasing the odds that this comes to be. Thank you for reading |
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Apologies if this has been posted recently - simply too many posts to even attempt to play catchup!  Fascinating to me. Ask sum on a steep climb again is positive news but I don't think we can claim to be out of the woods until the bears representing the record ask sum decide to take a substantial amount of it off the order book to ambush the bulls at a higher price. My suspicion looking at the market since MtGox reopened is that it won't take that much longer for the jittery fingers on the sell button to calm down and relax a bit. That's my projection anyways |
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naturalnews is mainstream media? humph... news to me. I was thinking that. Some mainstream might have the same overall message but that reads like amateur journalism. The 'officially a failed experiment' bit illustrates more than anything the writer's thinking if a statement is made emphatically enough it makes it true |
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What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!
I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place? Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there. I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late It'll be a while before they see gains again. Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility. I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold. If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO. What does everyone else think? I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front. $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run. I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!! i think we will see 50% swings all night long! Add into the mix that the whole time this has been going on I'm guessing the newly expanded MtGox verification team will have been beavering away processing loads and that 2 am utc is 11 am in Japan so we'll have Friday's new fiat hitting the exchange too... |
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What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!
I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so far in the first place? Seriously, people selling coins at $50 was a bit out there. I concur. Once the idiots realized they were just being panicky idiots, they started buying again... only problem is, once you've sold at $50, it's a little too late It'll be a while before they see gains again. Please stop living in 1 hour timeframes, this is an obvious bull trap. When Gox opens we are going sub $50 for at least 3 days, give or take some wild volatility. I'm not so sure, the price was going up from $120 before Gox pulled the plug. And the other exchanges are now recovering that the most-panic-y people have sold. If the other exchanges are back to $120 when Gox opens, it's going up from there IMHO. What does everyone else think? I'd be reluctant to assume too much on that front. $90 to $120 is by normal standards a massive jump to expect to happen in an hour and if it does happen it's not a very solid basis for a bull run. I have to conclude I have no idea what is going to happen in the next few hours - but I have no plans of going to bed for some time (it being 1am in London)!! |
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To people wondering what is actually happening in this thread:
Suckers trying to convince other suckers to buy back in so that they can dump. The goal is to actually turn this around but they will settle for dumping.
I'm glad someone is here being the cynic assuming everybody's motivation for writing anything here is an attempt to manipulate the market for their own game because we all need reminding sometimes that there are always some who will play it sneaky. However I'm also pleased it's others because although I may lose out from being naiive now and again it's a small price to pay for not going around thinking the worst of everyone all the time |
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What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!
I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so in the first place? Edit: I'll elaborate because I've been pondering this one and would appreciate your thoughts on my analysis/hypothesis/fantasy of what happened and why: From recollection there was an ask sum of around $16 million USD just prior to the collapse. Despite this the heavy volume of trading didn't kick in until it first looked like the dip was bottoming out so I'm going to hazard a guess that much of that ask depth (well as much as could be managed given MtGox technical limitations) was removed as the price was plummeting therefore it didn't need much panic or speculative selling to drive the price down pretty low. There was then an immense amount of buying at the first mini recovery until it became obvious for whatever reasons the bears weren't done yet so once again buyers stepped back and withdrew to watch and see how low it was going to go. With MtGox as (to date) the main price driver out of action there was no need to rush, no need to be afraid to miss the boat on buying back in and also it probably took some time to reassess how they judge the current market, many for the first time looking at prices over multiple exchanges prior to deciding how to play it. So a relative few in number with not an enormous amount of money had never seen the market go down and had bought stupid only to lose their nerve as soon as it looked like a serious downturn. This was exacerbated by a combination of bitcoin-flush speculators who have been waiting for a decent scalping opportunity for some time and the lack of a realistic margin market that could have calmed the waters. Then there's the whole trading blind thing which I'm guessing meant loads of people have simply stayed out and watched relatively few people take the market a very long way. I would like this to serve as a lesson to all who come to Bitcoin for the first time in the forthcoming months and for those who were in the MtGox verification queue that the market can fall too and subsequently will be a bit less rash with their purchasing. This should mean however long it takes before we pass where we were at peak yesterday (I'd be more surprised if it were very slow than very fast) the set of circumstances that led to this are unlikely to happen to the same degree again |
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What the hell is suddenly causing all the exchanges to rise?!
I totally missed it because btccharts was down for like 30 minutes before I noticed.
That there wasn't really a fundamental cause for the price to fall so in the first place? |
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use Campbx pricing, it APPEARS to be accurate-- there's a running ticker / rss / api hereMt.Gox is a turd that needs to be flushed. Why would you go with that price alone? Being 5th USD exchange by volume in the bitcoincharts table it doesn't even figure in my calculations that uses 4 let alone BitPay's that uses 3. I'm all for lessening the dependency on MtGox but I'd be reluctant to trust latest prices there alone as a reliable indicator, nor that of any other single exchange other than MtGox when they together represent such a small proportion of trading volume. |
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I just warned my siblings who were considering using LocalBitcoins.com to buy at today's bargain-basement prices that the prices offered by the sellers (especially GBP) are totally off kilter. The reason being most traders use a calculation for their dynamic pricing that includes the mtgox price. I'm finding the most reliable way of getting an idea of bitcoin valued in usd now is to use BitPay's listed prices (or formula).* So what I'm recommending my siblings do (and will offer you folks too) if intending to buy on LocalBitcoins whilst MtGox is broken is to click on whatever you need to to get a phone number then make contact with the seller to ask if they would set their price manually to reflect (plus whatever commission they normally would add) the BitPay price. You have the justification if you wanted to make a purchase from the many services offering BitPay as a payment option that is the calculation that would be used to calculate your bill in bitcoins. So don't lose out * I actually like the principle behind BitPay's means of calculating price and would like to see it more widely used. I have a variation on it that uses the top four USD exchanges by volume as listed on BitcoinCharts.org/markets that uses the average of the pair of Asks that are closest together. |
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After the massive increase in price today shown by The-Real-Link's video the volume seems less exciting but really it is impressive at a record $22,696,282.53 for the day which is 10% up on yesterday's which was also a record. The third highest also shows up in the chart of the last 10 days:  |
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