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521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 28, 2013, 05:18:27 PM
The Expensify news has being doing the rounds but I'm finding Falkvinge's take on it intriguing.
522  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Billion dollar cap press release on: March 28, 2013, 04:28:37 PM
I wrote this up last night before it hit $1 billion, distribute at will:

With 10,960,750 bitcoins in circulation at a price of $94.50/BTC, Bitcoin has surpassed the market cap of one billion dollars.

If Bitcoin was a stock, it would still be considered a small-cap company until it reaches $2 billion, but considering March 6 (just 22 days ago) Bitcoin had a $.5 billion market cap, it will not be long before Bitcoin will join the ranks of the mid-cap companies.

Some companies of note that currently hold a $1 billion market cap are Office Depot, Freddie Mac, and US Airways (http://www.forbes.com/global2000/).

With Bitcoin prices holding around $4/BTC this time last year, a price of $94.50/BTC today shows a 2360% increase, if the price were to rise as much over the course of the next year we could be seeing the price as high as $2,232 this time next year. This would surpass the revenue of the United States video game industry. Such growth will certainly peak the interest of industry leaders and investors looking to get a piece of the market and join the many venture capitalists who have started putting some serious money into Bitcoin businesses such as CoinLab's $500,000 (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/24/coinlab-attracts-500000-in-venture-capital-for-bitcoin-projects/) venture capital investment and BitPay who has just received additional seed funds following their initial $510,000 investment (http://www.floridaventuresourcing.com/2013/03/bitpay-raises-additional-seed-funds/).

If Bitcoin was a country, it would be more than the market value of the Democratic Republic of Congo who's M1 stands at $1,016,000,000. This, after having passed Aruba ($868,500,000) and Fiji ($794,600,000) earlier in the week (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2214rank.html). Perhaps this will inspire some small country that desires a currency that does not lose value to switch to Bitcoins and reap the benefits of an established world currency.


Nicely written sire Smiley

PS I couldn't see it on Reddit - have you or someone else already, will you or would you like me to?
523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 28, 2013, 12:56:09 PM
Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.

Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1.  When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time.  Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses.  It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point.
I will add my own response to this, not in the hope of changing Proudhon's mind but in case there are newbies considering giving his opinion some credibility due to his post-count.

Proudhon, Thinking about the owners of these enormous numbers of bitcoins you're implying are 'likely [to be] in MtGox' put yourself in the shoes of serious reasoning bears who believe Bitcoin will fail and whose intention is to get out with maximum profit.  Why, given the evidence for increasing interest, numbers and volume, do you think they would prefer to crash the market losing loads through slippage rather than sell as much as they can at current price then see what happens then  rinse & repeat?

Thing is, for your scenario to work it would need a huge proportion of the volume of Bitcoin holders either to be opportunists who see no future for the currency but are taking advantage of the 'fad' or naive get-rich-quick folk who would buckle and sell at the first signs of a reversal.  I don't believe this to be the case in terms of the latter because we keep having nice dips (such as now) to lose the weak hands as we go along.  As for the former I'm not getting the sense of that.  Do you have some evidence that it is?
524  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Who wants Casascius coins in the UK? on: March 27, 2013, 04:43:40 PM
Sorry guys, I didn't see this in time.  I last week put an order in for 10 x 1BTC pieces.  When all my nephews/nieces/cousins' kids are sorted (I've been doing this for some months now) I'll see what I have left and may sell what I have left.  I do like having them around though so I won't promise.  I enjoyed over the time I've been doing this carrying one or two around in my pocket with my change and receiving inquisitive looks from shopkeepers but they're getting a bit too valuable to risk being damaged by the sterling coin to do that now.  Over Christmass and before I was often even carrying one of the 25s with me and when it got to be worth over £200 that was quite impressive.  But at almost £1,500 it's getting a bit silly for that and I may sell one or two of those in time too.  For now though unfortunately it makes no sense to do anything other than keep them in the safe!

I don't possess any of the silver 10s myself having as soon as I could bought and given those to my nearest and dearest.  Come to think of it I know someone who has a 5BTC piece (just like the 1s) who might be happy to let it go if the price were right.

Now I have written to this thread I will get prompted whenever there are replies so if and when interest is shown I will reconsider my position and maybe let some of the physical go depending on what's offered.
525  Economy / Economics / Re: The entire EU going the way of cyprus.... on: March 27, 2013, 08:48:49 AM
They're only taking money from accounts that are larger than the government insures, correct?

e.g. The FDIC in the US insures accounts up to $250,000, so they would be taking money that is beyond that $250,000? In this case, it's 100,000 euros?

Just want to make sure I'm getting this right. If I am, then the people losing money are fucking idiots.

Why would you ever have uninsured money? Just split it between accounts??
As I understand it that's against the rules.  Not saying it's not done but those who want to keep above board and declare all savings won't be saved that way.  I'm not saying people keeping that much money an inflating currency in a savings account with hardly any interest aren't idiots but...
526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 08:16:37 AM
527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 05:46:49 AM
...yet...



I'm failing right now to see reasons this is going to slow down anytime soon!
528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 05:45:13 AM

529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 05:26:39 AM
Banks told to raise more capital by Bank of England

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21948429

If the intention behind the timing of this is to increase savers' confidence in British banks I suspect it might have the opposite effect of bringing to people's awareness that British banks may not be as safe as they think they area - and that that the Gov't might next time (given the example of Cyprus) not be as willing to throw public money at them whilst they hold huge amounts in deposits.

I hope QT 1.0 comes along fairly shortly because I fear the volumes Bitcoin may soon need to be dealing with especially if the values it represents show the numbers of people ignoring the official 'this is still experimental' line.
530  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 03:43:59 PM

I was wondering about this one since I read it earlier, wondering what Jeff Berwick is planning to do with all the Euros his ATMs pick up because they're apparently soon to bring in export limits.  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21936554

I had until reading both these articles been considered taking a bit of a holiday to Cyprus with a load of Bitcoin and going on LocalBitcoin or just hitting the ATM queues but I had a suspicion it wouldn't be as easy to replenish my BTC stock as it would need to be to be worth while.  Lo and behold...
531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 11:51:16 AM
Have you guys noticed the EUR price at Bitcoin24? It's at 64 right now compared to 60 at MtGox and has been to 69.6 which translates to $89. One could easily make a handsome profit by doing some arbitrage.

How long does it take to withdraw Euros from Bitcoin24 then get the deposit to clear at MtGox? What can happen to the Bitcoin price in that time?

For short-term arbitrage, you just need to keep funding the accounts with BTC and $ then flip. You don't have to move the $ around at short notice.


Problem is: those EUR markets have been higher than mtgoxEUR for weeks now.

When you want to capitalize on this, you should act very fast, not moving euros around. You could for instance send 420 BTC to Bitcoin24 and sell for 63+, gaining EUR 26460. Then simultaneously buy 420 BTC for 61 EUR at MtGox with fiat you have in your account there. You just made 840 euros. A couple of these trades each week and you could give up your job.
I guess the reason many are not doing this is is because it requires keeping fiat on MtGox and is it worth keeping it really worth keeping a chunk in fiat watching the price sail away for the occasional opportunity to arb?
532  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Wouldn't it be more fair if the bitcoins were shared equally? on: March 22, 2013, 12:04:26 PM
They tried to solve this problem with LiteCoin (probably the 2nd best crypto-currency) by making it harder to run away from a CPU/GPU.

Anyone who can build a mining rig with non-off the shelf components like FPGA or ASIC can gain a huge cost/speed advantage over the other miners in the market especially if they keep it to themself.

That seems to be happening with ASIC right now and I do worry about it concentrating the network and killing the project. Bitcoin is becoming less and less the peoples coin, and more and more the coin of the select few.
Are you living in some parallel universe or something?  How with adoption that is happening in front of your very eyes do you get to 'the coin of the select few'?!!
533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 22, 2013, 08:34:41 AM

Morning Proudhon,  I'm not the first to point out if you call top all the time and there ever is a significant fall the odds are you will have called it right Smiley  However I would not be surprised to see a chunky drop in price over the weekend.  I'd actually be happier if it did even to way below my last buy-in price because it assists with distribution, gives a chance to quick-gain folk to get out and in many eyes increases confidence.  All I really want is for there to be a reminder for potential buyers that the price can and will sometimes go down before they get too silly!

But whether this happens now from where we are today or in a week or month from wherever we'll be by then I don't really mind.
534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 06:49:21 PM
People who are newly introduced to bitcoin.  Remember, even though we have gotten tons of press lately we are still nearly microscopic.  Every new press mention brings in new people who will buy for any number of reasons.

And are they blindly buying it at all-time-high? Undecided
Excuse me pointing out the obvious but somebody has to - unless this was the last ever ATH?!
535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 06:32:50 PM


Edit: This shows nothing special - it was just put up at the request of Goat.
536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 06:29:06 PM
Bids remain above 7mil USD, sells struggling to reach 40k BTC.

We're still on our way to Xanadu, gentlemen.


Below 7m according to this (if we're picky) but is it the Bid sum / Ask sum that is being referred to as the mccorvic index - which is currently still around the 220 mark?
537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 06:12:00 PM
£50 GBP
538  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 05:19:38 PM
Guys, with all due respect there's a topic dedicated to this kind of talk... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.0

This is the lounge of the forum!

Next topic is: potatoes.
Fair enough - sorry, I found myself in a serious moment for a second!  Yay, bitcoin is going up forever wayhay  Grin
539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 05:14:53 PM
No kidding. I'd be significantly out before then. I could take care of everyone in my immediate family (pay off their debts) and set my mom and pop up in a house that is fully paid for.

Don't forget the fact that you lose half in taxes  Sad

I can't get a straight answer on this.

Some people say 15%, some say 50%.

Then someone rolls in and flames the shit out of everyone for thinking about paying taxes, lol.

It's going to vary as you have state and federal taxes, but assuming 30-40% for $250k or less will probably get you in the ballpark.

Hopefully by this point I can just pay for their house in Bitcoin then.  Wink
Guys, with all due respect there's a topic dedicated to this kind of talk... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.0
540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 21, 2013, 04:50:56 PM
if anyone can photo of the charts please


10K BTC to $85
20K BTC to $100

We might actually hit $100 / BTC today  Huh. Normally the biggest orders arrive after 12:00 EST.

And there's almost nothing over $100.

Total bids in USD are steady at 7.5mil, sells in BTC have dropped to 30kish.

Latest on this one:


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