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341  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The last month is among us.. on: May 10, 2013, 09:28:52 AM
yeah, i will mine litecoin, but for bitcoin i suppose it's gg by then

the bitcoin algorithm can be switched

in some scenarios, sha-256 ASIC hashing will congregate to a few select players effectively centralizing bitcoin creation within a few months, switching the algorithm can and will currently alleviate that

I have heard the 'centralizing' projection SOOOO many times but have yet to hear a persuasive argument as to what is going to cause said centralisation.  Care to elaborate?
342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 08, 2013, 01:46:53 PM
Shorting BTC is starting to be available on different platforms. When that spreads, we will see more downward pressure.

I am shorting it... and I know it will fall. Its just making all of you a fool

There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds. BTC has nothing to back itself. No Equity. Pure liquid capital investement. When the anonymous japanese runs away with all your money.... people will cry here

My guess is this is pure troll (and Rampion, I think he's probably referring to Satoshi not Karpeles) but what's interesting about it is that there are people out there who believe so strongly in the simplistic 'gold-backed-or-valueless' thing that when shorting becomes easily available a significant amount of money will be bet against Bitcoin in this manner.

I can't see enough of the bigger picture to tell what how this would affect the market but my guess is they'll have to be borrowing btc from somewhere to short it so if there's a high demand then maybe there'll be profit to be made in lending at a reasonable interest?
343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 08, 2013, 01:31:32 PM
Shorting BTC is starting to be available on different platforms. When that spreads, we will see more downward pressure.

I am shorting it... and I know it will fall. Its just making all of you a fool

There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds. BTC has nothing to back itself. No Equity. Pure liquid capital investement. When the anonymous japanese runs away with all your money.... people will cry here

Excellent, it's people with this mentality that we need to see shorting if such confidence in their belief is actually reflected in their positions.  This should help stablise prices as people get caught in a credit squeeze and have to bail out of their positions.

Bring it on Smiley
344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 01, 2013, 10:08:15 PM
What is the rationale for this "crash"?

It started with 1 semi big dump yesterday and just as i expected this manipulating and playing around will eventually go wrong. People get tired of it and refuse to buy anymore. It might kill the coin.

No, it can't kill the coin though it might just kill the incentive for those wanting to jump on board purely as a get-rich-quick scheme.  If it forces people to think a bit harder prior to jumping in then all the better because those who do buy will be more likely to be buying sensibly and with more realistic expectations, a considered accepted risk of loss and most likely a better idea of what they like about bitcoin and why they'd like it to succeed.

It's all very well those jumping on board fearful of missing the boat when we were on that massive rally and wanting nothing but to see the value of their investment going through the roof.  Everyone should feel free to buy for whatever reason they want - but they shouldn't come crying to me when it all goes Pete Tong!
345  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: May 01, 2013, 01:08:40 PM
Looks like 3,760 BTC profit for the month:

Quote
2013/03/31 67842.92656762
2013/04/30 71603.40834462
            3760.48177700


Do you have a list of the above chart from previous months?

Regards
They're further back on this thread since dooglus started doing them.  They shouldn't be too hard to locate but if you are going to do them would you mind posting the rest of us the list of the links to the relevant posts please?
346  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Pay With Bits Wants To Be The *M-Pesa* For Bitcoin" Sending BTCs with SMS on: April 29, 2013, 11:20:17 PM
why time and time again does the cart come before the horse when it comes to bublicising prospective bitcoin-related services?

I believe that there are a few reasons for that. For one, most Bitcoin users are a bit more forgiving of innovative and yet raw websites coming out. They can look past the lack of ergonomics and joe six pack simplicity and are willing to jump through some hoops to use your service (look at how people exchange government currency for bitcoins).

Secondly, Bitcoin is sort of highlighting the fact that patents and copyrights are not exactly necessary as most new services within Bitcoin have become the de-facto company for that service. Look at MtGox and the amount of problems they are having. But because they were first and are trusted, they get the traffic. BitPay actually has competitors. There are other services that do what BitPay does, but because they were first, they are considered the main company for merchants accepting bitcoins. Look at SatoshiDice. I have not been there since they first opened, but it was just a web page with tables of numbers.

Getting out the door first yields you rewards.

Casascius is a worthy addition to that list too.  I already knew all of what you wrote but it helped to read it so thank you.  I think sometimes I get a little frustrated and need more to take my hat off to those doing the pioneering with their warts-n-all services that do, for those who don't fall by the wayside, appear to get better with time.
347  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 29, 2013, 10:13:13 PM
Real profit is certainly really taking over the expected profit..

And yep, this is definitely going to be the lowest month for SD in terms of EP.

Yes, seeing expected profit go down is bad news.

I'm thinking it might be due to the crazy rallies in btc values this month. I can imagine many gamblers switching from sdice to btc gambling.

If that's true then expected profit should be up again next month as the mania in btc fades away.
Repeat something enough times RS and you come to believe it to be true.  Search hard enough in the forum and I'm sure you'll find more excuses to express your gloom and doom about what you're so convinced is going to happen to bitcoin in the weeks ahead Wink
348  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Pay With Bits Wants To Be The *M-Pesa* For Bitcoin" Sending BTCs with SMS on: April 29, 2013, 10:07:21 PM
This was a project created at the hackathon.

Prototype stage at this point.
Given that don't you think they got a little too excited with the release and the website not really making it clear that it is the case?  I know we're all excited but as someone pointed out above why time and time again does the cart come before the horse when it comes to bublicising prospective bitcoin-related services?
349  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Pay With Bits Wants To Be The *M-Pesa* For Bitcoin" Sending BTCs with SMS on: April 29, 2013, 10:00:50 PM
How is that a "catch"? Do you mean for the business model?

For the users it seems perfect anyway (IMO).
I think the 'catch' as far as there is one is I can't see how for a simple sms phone the private key can be kept anywhere other than with the service provider such as it was with the mybitcoin wallet so we can't get the client-side encryption we're used to with the likes of blockchain.info so at the end of the day it comes down to how secure is it and how trustworthy the providers.  M-Pesa would stay out as long as they can because their margins are crazy but if it came down to it their brand already has the trust so it would take some beating.  But by all means let's see these things get out there - with awareness of the risks of letting go of the 'be my own bank' concept.
350  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Who wants Casascius coins in the UK? on: April 29, 2013, 09:28:11 PM
Casascius is auctioning rolls of 50 0.5BTC coins and 1BTC coins RIGHT NOW!. The auctions will end at 22:00 UTC.

I personally dont have the BTC to spend 25BTC on the 0.5 coins or 50BTC on the 1 coins. But I thought I would post it here just incase anyone wants to pool together to make a bid?

I can only go for 4BTC's worth at the moment.

Side note: separate to this venture, me and a couple of others are looking to start a business reselling physical coins in the UK - we are currently in early planning stages and hope to become fully operational later this year. We are not yet at a stage where we can buy a roll of coins.
Hi again HowGudAmI,
I'm not into the pooling thing but I have some rolls on order so I'll tell you what I'll do - given that you're interested in reselling:

I'll sell you four coins of your choice (1s for 1.45, 1/2s for 0.875) and if you can show me you've sold them for at least 1.7 and 1 respectively I'll sell you the four you were after for yourself at cost (1.26 and 1.45 respectively).  Does that sound reasonable?
351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 29, 2013, 07:19:05 PM
I love it - a magnificent balance of bulls and bears convinced the market is going to go their way whilst the market alternates between looking like it's going to start a crazy up or a massive drop alternately.

For those who didn't see it over the weekend I wrote a blog piece about why this pleases me.  Be warned it's a bit longer and more convoluted than it needed to be but I think I have a slightly different take than what I have seen around here.  Enjoy Smiley
352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 29, 2013, 05:33:02 PM
We will hit 130$ today big sell-off will be today

I hope so - I want to get back the Bitcoin I sold for $139 Sad

I don't think you will:

Quote
BRINGING BITCOIN TO THE MASSES
Payments - Anytime, Anywhere, by Anyone.

www.paywithbits.com

Video, etc. in the "Press" section.

Rather a large announcement really for something which (according to the developer) was hacked together in 24 hours!

notme and I had an exchange about it on this thread this morning.
353  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-04-28 Pay With Bits Wants To Be The Square For Bitcoin on: April 29, 2013, 05:27:32 PM
Did anyone try it yet ?
http://paywithbits.com

I sent a sign up text yet I haven't got a text back.
Likewise from the UK.

built in 24 hours (according to its developer)- a little premature methinks to be thinking of it as a solution to world problems!
[/quote]
354  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Pay With Bits Wants To Be The *M-Pesa* For Bitcoin" Sending BTCs with SMS on: April 29, 2013, 05:26:08 PM
It looks interesting, but the paywithbits website lacks basic info, like how to fund your wallet. . .

This.  And also no way to withdraw from phone to external addresses.

I had friends in different countries sign up so we could try it out.  USA signup got a text response, but in other countries, the signup message was never acknowledged.

So for now, a nice announcement of intentions...but not enough functionality to call it even a beta system.

built in 24 hours (according to its developer)- a little premature methinks to be thinking of it as a solution to world problems!
355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 29, 2013, 12:39:05 PM
Just an indication on today's volume to date despite the rally...



Makes a nice wide bottom step doesn't it?  ...  for the time being!
356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 29, 2013, 07:54:47 AM
I don't see what are the fees  Embarrassed

Edit: And I don't know how to send bitcoins to my phone number  Undecided
There's not a lot of info on their website is - and I can't find any discussion on here about it either.  Have they just come out of the blue?  I sent an SMS to 'signup' about half an hour ago and am awaiting confirmation.  I think the main thing I'd like to know is whether the users' in-the-cloud wallets are accessible by the company or whether they're more like blockchain.info's only accessible by the user.  Not wanting to be a wet blanket but if the former then everybody signing up ought to familiarise themselves with the mybitcoin history!

I don't see how it could be the latter.  You are sending them an sms, they have no way to access a private key on your device.

This is what I'm finding confusing.  Going by the limited information on the site alone it says: To make a transaction simply text your request. ex. "send '555-phon' 10 for beer".

Please bear in mind I may have got this totally wrong because I am not a techie.  But my understanding of that is that you're sending your payment SMS to the service provider not the recipient - in which case isn't it just an on-line wallet service with SMS instruction for payments and SMS notification of receipts?  If so then the private keys of the wallets associated with the phone numbers surely have to be kept on the service provider's side.  In which case, my question is: Are they only accessible via instruction from the phone or does the service provider also have access to them.  Unlike Blockchain.info wallets where the encryption/decryption can be done on the client side I can't see how that could be handled by an sms-only phone.

I'm not saying the service provider is untrustworthy but if my understanding is correct one essential aspect of Bitcoins - i.e. not needing a bank - is absent.  Maybe paywithbits.com is more trustworthy than Barclays or Mpesa?  I don't know but it's a big step away from what in Bitcoin world we're used to and I'm reservedly excited about this as something I'd like to see go viral in developing nations until I understand more.
357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Amount of posts here vs Price on: April 29, 2013, 07:42:24 AM
Have been browsing speculation board a lot past few days.

Am surprised how few posts are actually made.

Another confirmation for me that a market cap of a few billion is hard to sustain at this point.

Since the price of bitcoin after all depends foremost on the amount of speculators.
'amount of speculators' is a bit vague.  If you meant the number of speculators then I would disagree that it is primarily the driver.  Closer to the mark might be volume held by speculators - or did you mean volume traded by speculators?

Whichever it was I doubt I doubt there's a correlation between that and the number of posts here that could be of any predictive value in determining price.

But those looking for 'another confirmation' to feel more confident about their belief - whether up or down - will find it almost anywhere if they look hard enough Grin
358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 29, 2013, 07:35:23 AM
I don't see what are the fees  Embarrassed

Edit: And I don't know how to send bitcoins to my phone number  Undecided
There's not a lot of info on their website is - and I can't find any discussion on here about it either.  Have they just come out of the blue?  I sent an SMS to 'signup' about half an hour ago and am awaiting confirmation.  I think the main thing I'd like to know is whether the users' in-the-cloud wallets are accessible by the company or whether they're more like blockchain.info's only accessible by the user.  Not wanting to be a wet blanket but if the former then everybody signing up ought to familiarise themselves with the mybitcoin history!
359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 28, 2013, 04:08:56 PM
Ask orders appear to be being taken off the table.

360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 28, 2013, 03:55:05 PM
Looks like we are into a mini-bull phase up to ~$140, assuming TA works on these very short-term ranges (and it doesn't hold up too well even long term these days cosidering the ridiculously low volume ~.~)
You're right about the 'ridiculously low volume' today:

OK, Does anybody want to take a walk down the volume stairs of the last few days Wink ?



To give this a context, today's has more than half a day to go but even if it stayed where it is it is still an equivalent dollar volume to an average day in January (the top step, the 24th April having been the fourth highest day trading ever).



But surely if volume is what it takes to make TA 'work' it makes as much sense to use it today as it did to use prior to the first week of February when these kinds of volumes were the norm.  I don't remember hearing TA advocates not bothering to use their tools until the overall volume rose.  Just sayin...
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