All the states got extra snoopy when we were locked in, started using zoom and generally mucking about more on home pc's and mobiles. Most of the geeks are at home not on site. Expect a big nation-state cyberattack in the next few months. If only to keep the theme of "wtf 2020?" going. Would be sad if the pos terminals in supermarkets failed for a few days. Or large swathes of the West lost power for a while.
Surely a large meteorite strike, Yellowstone eruption event, ozone layer hole and New Coke are all on the menu for the second half of 2020? |
|
|
|
Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.
We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  [img]https://i.pinimg.com/originals/de/2c/86/de2c866545ec46df289b2f4957d1dimg] Nobody knows what will happen Yes we do ! confirmed. long time no see, mate. I’m not half the man I used to be |
|
|
|
Everyone is saying by 2023 we will be rich.
We will be rich by 2021. By 2023 we will be filthy rich.  Nobody knows what will happen Yes we do ! |
|
|
|
41 minutes later...630001 goes through.
Fees up, (some) miners giving up until hashrate drops or the price goes up? I'm very curious to see how many miners continue. Wow, yeah 102 sats/byte Good Start for miners  If you slow down mining, the supply side crunch is dramatically accelerated, driving up the price... |
|
|
|
|
The Bitcoin is dead. Long live the Bitcoin.
|
|
|
|
Fucking hell 600, we have been in this game a long time  He has to change his username to 300 |
|
|
|
Interesting article which helps explain the difference in how Democrat and Republican voters perceive the threat from coronavirus. Objectively speaking, the urban / rural divide has led to very different experience with Democrats more likely to suffer from the virus directly, and Republicans more likely suffer indirectly from the lockdown measures. This has tended to exacerbate the partisan divide. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/5/1/21243357/coronavirus-covid-19-trump-protests |
|
|
|
|
He always was a lazy sod that V8. Never done a honest days work.
|
|
|
|
|
Iceland has extremely aggressive testing so its data is among the best in the world.
Iceland has 10 deaths, 18 active cases and a total case load of 1,801. None of the 18 active cases are critical, so let us assume all recover.
That gives us a case fatality rate of 0.55% with no load on the health system.
Iceland has a population of 364,000. If half catch C19, a 0.55% fatality rate would be 2,000 deaths.
New York has a population of 18,800,000. If half of NY catch C19 with a CFR of 0.55%, then the death rate would be 103,000 people, which is four times the current deaths of 26,000. Working backwards from a CFR of 0.55% suggests that, at most, 4.7 million New Yorkers have caught C19 which is nowhere near enough for herd immunity. It’s probably significantly less due to excess deaths from hospital overloading and poor care in nursing homes.
Applied to the US population of 384 million, a CFR of 0.55% yields a death rate of just over a million people if only half the US population catches C19. In reality, many US hospitals will collapse if we get close to those numbers, pushing the CFR up.
Please note that the CFR rate says nothing about people who are permanently crippled by C19 even if they live. I have not seen good numbers on this, so this is just speculation based on papers written by Wuhan doctors.
The Imperial College model is quickly becoming less important now that we are starting to get real world data to work with.
|
|
|
|
|
Port staff don’t need to come within 20 meters of ship crew to unload a boat. Air crew never touch their cargo. It’s loaded by airport ground staff at one end and unloaded by airport ground staff at the other end.
You need pilots to board a ship to get the ship into harbour, but you could just use proper PPE and isolate the ship pilots.
I’m not making this shit up, it’s official Australian government policy.
The bigger risk is we are not on top of the virus and get a second wave due to asymptomatic community transmission.
|
|
|
|
They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO.
Imagine a truck driver or seaman transporting goods getting quarantined for 14 days. That wont work for long because all workers would be quarantined. Goods wont move from themself thus an automatic quarantintine for everyone will likely not work.  |
|
|
|
|
They can go in supervised quarantine for two weeks or they can GTFO.
|
|
|
|
|
Would you care to explain why it’s not possible?
|
|
|
|
Hey, I know what you are talking about, I live on a self sufficient island as well.
Who said anything about six months? Do you think you can sustain closed borders for - let's say - a few years?
If sealed borders means free movement of goods, and entry via 14 days supervised quarantine, then Yes. Easily. Australia will be in a bubble with New Zealand, but that’s ok. We can go skiing there. |
|
|
|
Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility. *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders. You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in. The virus can only come in, if you let it in.
Do you really believe that? One way or the other, sooner or later, you're going to have to interact with the rest of the world. It is your economy that will be destroyed behind sealed borders. Waiting it out is total bullshit. The Mayans were waiting out on European pandemics for centuries, until Christopher decided to visit. Too bad there was no BG then, uh? Yeah I don’t know about that. We grow about three times more food than required to support our population. We load wheat, coal and iron ore into bulk carriers using conveyors. We offload refined fuel through pipes. We can put foreign aircrew into supervised hotel quarantine for air cargo (spares and new iPhones). If it’s really important for other people to visit, they can sit in 14 day quarantine as well. We have one of the worlds leading vaccine companies (CSL). Not a lot of physical contact required with the outside world. Just in my house I could go off grid for six months right now and not even blink. Lots of solar power, thousands of liters of tank water and plenty of dried goods. |
|
|
|
Was testing of all passengers and crew done on the Diamond Princess? If we don’t know the denominator, then the Case Fatality Rate is just guesswork.
Case fatality rate is at 100% for our life time. That may be so, but most people given the choice would decline the option of dying in the next 60 days. |
|
|
|
I said healthy people who die, take a long time to die. It takes them 45 - 60 days to drown in their own lung fluid as they fight every step of the way. Outbreak on Diamond Princess ship occurred 3 months ago. Yet no significant increase in the last month or so, right? I know you will say that the passengers were probably old and fat. And I will say the crew members were probably NOT old and fat. Was testing of all passengers and crew done on the Diamond Princess? If we don’t know the denominator, then the Case Fatality Rate is just guesswork. The only data I can find is 712 cases and 13 deaths giving a CFR of 1.8% |
|
|
|
US intelligence agencies are reportedly examining mobile phone data suggesting there could have been an emergency shutdown in October at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
According to a report, obtained by NBC News, there was no mobile phone activity in a high-security part of the Chinese laboratory complex from October 7 to 24. Previously, there had been consistent use of mobile phones.
The report, carried out by private experts, suggested there may have been a "hazardous event", specifically at the institute's National Biosafety Laboratory, between October 6 and 11. Analysis of mobile phone data from around the institute also suggested roadblocks were in place between October 14 and 19.
Experts urged caution, suggesting the report may be based on limited commercially available mobile phone data, and that there could be other reasons for varying levels of phone usage. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/north-america/wuhan-lab-phone-records-show-possible-shutdown-in-october-20200510-p54rid.htmlThe Wuhan Military Games were on 18 - 29 October. Some think the first infections of foreigners occurred then. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/french-army-returned-wuhan-military-21988912This might explain the Chinese claim that the US Army brought the virus to Wuhan. They are setting up the lie. |
|
|
|
Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.
OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny. Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages. As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor. At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus. We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total. Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours. The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice. Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders. Many other European countries will also be in the same position. Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead. You can keep your liberties. On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash. It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon. There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon. Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine. It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country. It opens up, infections would go up. I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't. It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders. Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside. Excluding New South Wales and Victoria, both of which have an active cluster, not one Australian state recorded a new case yesterday despite very high rates of testing. State borders are closed. Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility. *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders. You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in. The virus can only come in, if you let it in. We do have a problem with NSW lifting its restrictions too early but other States will keep their borders sealed against NSW while they sort themselves out. I say this with caution because we could easily screw this up yet. |
|
|
|
Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead. You can keep your liberties.
Will do. I will admit some admiration for that fighting spirit (from a distance of 1.5 meters) You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
