Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

Yikes, flash crash, more shenanigans. Guess the big boys aren't done accumulating.

All those folks having to shut off their S9s still have next month's data hall bills to pay.....so much for their HODL plans. :

My guess, in general, is miners pushing this sell to play it safe with halving 2 days away..due to real-life economic plan ahead issues...

then everyone else piled on. Day Traders, your mom, etc. Panic/Panic/Panic.

But what do I know according to Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner in Economics..this whole BTC/Crypto thing is doomed to beanie baby bust.

Then again, I'm too dumb to know any better. (I think Paul Krugman has been claiming this since around 2014 at least)

Moving on through the Zen of Cluelessness is how I roll.

Brad

(soothing the balm of BTC/crypto addiction)

I´m about to puke..

We dont deserve this 2 days before halving..

I could not agree more. This 'sucks' to be 'eloquent' about it all.

[Biodom]

Post this 2020 halvening miners will cease to be the biggest sellers of Bitcoin. It'll be the dawn of the crypto exchange as the leading seller.

The biggest sell pressure on Bitcoin will soon be from exchanges selling their BTC fees collected into fiat.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1258966521071599616?s=21

BUT: When the bitcoin price doubles, and trading volume stays the same, the exchange trading fees selling pressure in bitcoin halves.

Second I think over time there will be pressure on trading fees collected by the exchanges, as mentioned in one of my previous posts. 0.5% and higher is insane and not sustainable in a competitive free market environment.

Use maker taker

If you are not the maker, you are doing it wrong

Does it just mean placing your sell above the price? or something more elaborate?

Thanks

That, or placing your buy below the current market price at time of order entry.

with market price being the lowest ask or LAST trade?
Binance, kraken and Coinbase say that maker is the order that is not immediately executed.

[jbreher]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

[Arriemoller]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Not this again...
Most of these fatalities stay one or two weeks in a hospital, take up quite some resources like ventilators and have to be quarantined in ICUs.
Do you grasp the gravitiy of this?

You are an idiot.
We are doing this right now, right here.
We have doubled our number of ICU beds in less than a month, and we are not using them all, not even close.
Is that so hard for you to grasp?
Or do you just like to be locked up buy your government? you are Austrian after all, you guys love hard disciplin, so history shows us.

[HairyMaclairy]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus.  We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total.  Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.  

The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice.  Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders.  Many other European countries will also be in the same position.  

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash.  It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try

[Arriemoller]

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Sweden has a Case Fatality Rate of 12.3%.  Obviously the real CFR is lower than that, but impossible to tell what it really is due to lack of testing.

So?
You can't use Swedens fatality rates for anything, only cases in hospital are being tested, that gives you numbers that are useless.
As I said, the latest European studies in Germany and Italy, among other places, where there are villages/regions  where just about everyone is tested, show a fatality rate among infected of about 0,36-0,2 %

And where the hell did you get the idea that healthy people who get infected will die in 60 days?
You are starting to sound like Ibian

[HairyMaclairy]

We are in heated agreement.

• The Swedish statistics are useless due to low testing rates.  You cannot draw meaningful conclusions from the Swedish experiment yet.  

• I said healthy people who die, take a long time to die.  It takes them 45 - 60 days to drown in their own lung fluid as they fight every step of the way.   Old, fat people don’t have the same fighting ability and die much quicker.  This means death rates for recent infections (less than a month old) are too low because you have not given healthy people a chance to die yet.  You should not draw any inference from this about the proportion of young, healthy people who die - obviously it is a small proportion of the total cohort.  

[jojo69]

  You can keep your liberties.  

indeed

we can

[infofront]

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

Will do.

[HairyMaclairy]

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

Will do.

I will admit some admiration for that fighting spirit (from a distance of 1.5 meters)

You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

[aesma]

Wow nice red stick there, with my small time trading with all the orders programmed in advance I made what I expect in a week in one hour. It was wild and I had trouble inputting the orders fast enough, Kraken is rate limiting me it's annoying. I'm not a bot !

[lightfoot]

I'd think it would take more energy to escape the sun's gravity (i.e. "the solar system") than fall into the sun, unless you're in a high orbit like a comet.
Physics Man's speculations leave out lots of specifics.  Do you first have to launch a rocket from the earth?  That adds a bunch more energy required.
And what's with the Delta V business?  That's just acceleration, which is an instantaneous measure and doesn't tell you how much "propellant" you're going to need for the stated job of going to or from the sun.

Well, in order to fall into the sun you have to stop orbiting it. De-orbit is tougher than you think because you're starting off with a lot of velocity from the Earth. Now you can lose energy by doing flybys of the inner planets, but since they are smaller than Jupiter you lose less energy than you can gain by a Jupiter/Saturn flyby. So it is easier to go out of the solar system from Earth than into the sun.

Messenger's wikipedia page (mercury orbiter) probably has a good write up on the process.

[aesma]

We are in heated agreement.

• The Swedish statistics are useless due to low testing rates.  You can to draw meaningful conclusions from the Swedish experiment yet. 

• I said healthy people who die, take a long time to die.  It takes them 45 - 60 days to drown in their own lung fluid as they fight every step of the way.   Old, fat people don’t have the same fighting ability and die much quicker.  This means death rates for recent infections (less than a month old) are too low because you have not given healthy people a chance to die yet.  You should not draw any inference from this about the proportion of young, healthy people who die - obviously it is a small proportion of the total cohort. 

I'm in your camp. It's not gleeful though, even if I will enjoy Trump losing, because the US economy is always leading the others, so if the US economy is very bad, then my economy will be very bad. Fortunately in my country (France) bad economy doesn't mean bad life, but my stock portfolio will suffer.

[Toxic2040]

[Hueristic]

I just read the plot to "Clear and present danger".


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-security-videos/detained-american-claims-he-plotted-maduros-capture-in-venezuela-tv-statement-idUSKBN22I2PJ

[Biodom]

Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  

OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.

Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.

As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.

At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus.  We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total.  Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.  

The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice.  Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders.  Many other European countries will also be in the same position.  

Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead.   You can keep your liberties.  

On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash.  It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try

I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

[edited out - distasteful recommendation] ... or less painful way: rebuy at ~$5-6-7k and become a millionaire within the next 12-24 months.

You really think that we are going to reach sub $7k prices?

are you suggesting that mindrust should set buy orders at three different levels?  $5k, $6k and $7k?

Its not a bad idea though..

I do have couple of buy order at lower levels, can wait 5-6 months. Who knows if we get to see another flash sale, anything is possible. if not then who cares.

For sure, I think that it is a good idea to have some buy orders set up, yet I was asking serveria what he was recommending that mindrust does - but at the same time, probably my main point was that mindrust does not seem very receptive to any kind of plan that would cause him to get stocked up on BTC in any kind of short period of time.

Of course, when it comes to the strategies of many of us who are already into BTC, and if we have already been into BTC for any amount of time that even approaches mindrust's quantity of time in BTC (he registered on the forum in late 2013, but he was saying that he made a lot of mistakes in earlier years, so he was refining his BTC strategy in either 2017 and/or 2018), then we have been planning and employing our strategy for a while, and we have likely tweaked our strategy and perhaps even made some mistakes along the way, too. 

So, yeah, even if some of us might have gotten into BTC as later bloomers (let's say late 2017 or even 2018, which I think might be your story, JSRAW), we have at least had some time to establish some BTC base.

Furthermore, we may have largely been able to get to a kind of minimum threshold level of comfort with our BTC holdings in order that we are not likely to FOMO when the BTC price goes shooting up (assuming at some point in the next couple of years BTC has pretty decent odds of shooting up). 

But anyhow, even if some of us might consider that we want to really be prepared for up, personally, I still consider it to be a great plan to have some amount of money prepared for all the way down to $3k, and yeah, there may be some people who do not even feel that they want to plan for BTC prices below $5k or $6k, and that is fine too... so long as the BTC accumulating person has some kind of thought through (and likely personally tailored) plan about how they want to treat their dollar reservoirs versus BTC stash and also considering cashflow that might come available with the passage of time (yeah, maybe some of us have been having some drying up of some of our future cashflow expectations.. or at least uncertainties regarding some sources that previously had been thought about as more assured).

Anyhow, combination of DCA, buying on dips and HODL should be considered in such a way that accounts for those kinds of $5k to $6k possibilities and perhaps even lower, even if, currently, we might consider those lower price points to be somewhat less likely.

[Arriemoller]

Liechtenstein had a total lockdown and their deaths were only 2905 from COVID. So obviously total lockdown is the way to go considering the number of deaths is lower.

Yes, I suppose 2905 out of 38,000 is a whole lot less than 3220 out of 10,000,000.
Seen any good movies lately?

You are not good at detecting irony, are you.

[JayJuanGee]

Woah... Any news??

bitcoin is dead

Mining death spiral, started early.. but instead of a mining death spiral, it is a BTC price death spiral.

Tried to buy some, coinbase says bitcoin not supported, lol. More shenanigans. Off to another exchange.

I had some buy orders in around the $9000 mark on Kraken.
Seems I could have gotten them a lot cheaper!
Still, must not grumble as for a while, I thought I had missed the train.

Registration date = December 15, 2013.

In other words, you have had 6.5 years to accumulate some corns.  

[JayJuanGee]

Would be lovely to think this is washing out the leveraged longs before a mega pump

Sadly I think that is wishful thinking

Hard to take you seriously, these days hairy.

Remember back in the good ole days when you said that $9,485 was "a gift"?



 

I´m about to puke..

We dont deserve this 2 days before halving..

hahahaha

of course, we deserve this.  

When Vegeta?

Good point.