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I just love this slow grind higher.
Sneaking out the door...
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The bitshares guys keep harping on bitusd but the real killer app IMO is bitgld, which tracks the price of gold and actually pays interest in gold. For those who want a decentralized, trustless, gold backed digital currency, this is the best you are going to get without having the real thing, which obviously cant be sent over a communications channel. This is the financial equivalent of people playing fantasy football and mistaking themselves for athletes.  |
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So who can explain how Bitshares or Counterparty is going to issue shares on the Blockchain?
Will a company issuing 1M shares attach these permanently to 1M Satoshi's? How does the market trade an independent value for the shares if a Satoshi goes to $100 per or if a tx free goes to $100 per?
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We seem to have our own version of rewriting history here in the US now. I can't seem to find the infamous Cramer video anymore where he talks about manipulating S&P futures pre hours when he ran his hedge fund.
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plus, anyone leaving coins on an exchange deserves to lose them.
I don't know if I would go so far as to say, "deserves". The scantily clad woman walking down the "wrong side of the tracks" in the middle of the night doesn't deserve to get raped. Yet... at the same time, she had better adjust her behavior before something bad happens to her, because she is playing with fire. There are shit people on the planet, that's a fact. Innocent people don't deserve the bad shit that happens to them, but they certainly play a key role in it by refusing to protect themselves. When we (those who do protect ourselves) point out their failure, we are labelled as "blaming the victim". In today's global economy, those who protect themselves can still end up as victims thanks to the actions (or inactions) of those who don't. This is when it starts to get complicated. Are people shorting this market with bitcoins which "belong" to others? Probably. Should people be free to make stupid decisions? Yes! How do we protect ourselves from the stupid decisions of others in a global economy? That's the tricky part and probably why many of us are involved with Bitcoin in the first place. I wish I had all the answers. yeah, that was written out of emotion. |
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that is pure evil  When who does what? Ah I see, my phone app doesn't show full convo. haha, your question actually has merit. who's the real devil? the lender, the shorter, or the exchange enabler? |
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i used to listen to Willie religiously. unfortunately, he's too gloom and doom with lots of unsubstantiated sources ala his London guy. |
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that is pure evil but i agree with him. plus, anyone leaving coins on an exchange deserves to lose them. |
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hit sub 80 oil. amazing charade ya got going there, Fed!  |
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this is an incredibly weak bounce for silver and bodes poorly for gold and the stock mkt. looking to reload the shorts somewhere around here. i only pause b/c we have a weekly/intermed term buy signal on gold that will occur only at the end of this week which should be good for somemore upside from here. dicey:  yep, Dow futures ain't lookin so good. my short term setup indicates even more downside to come in the next days. but as always, look out for the invisible hand!:  |
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mother f*ckin A. this is exactly what Aaron Swartz killed himself over. yet MIT stood by and did nothing during his torment by the FBI:
The memo from Harvard's faculty advisory council said major publishers had created an "untenable situation" at the university by making scholarly interaction "fiscally unsustainable" and "academically restrictive", while drawing profits of 35% or more. Prices for online access to articles from two major publishers have increased 145% over the past six years, with some journals costing as much as $40,000, the memo said.
More than 10,000 academics have already joined a boycott of Elsevier, the huge Dutch publisher, in protest at its journal pricing and access policies. Many university libraries pay more than half of their journal budgets to the publishers Elsevier, Springer and Wiley.
Robert Darnton, director of Harvard Library told the Guardian: "I hope that other universities will take similar action. We all face the same paradox. We faculty do the research, write the papers, referee papers by other researchers, serve on editorial boards, all of it for free … and then we buy back the results of our labour at outrageous prices.
"The system is absurd, and it is inflicting terrible damage on libraries. One year's subscription to The Journal of Comparative Neurology costs the same as 300 monographs. We simply cannot go on paying the increase in subscription prices. In the long run, the answer will be open-access journal publishing, but we need concerted effort to reach that goal."http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/apr/24/harvard-university-journal-publishers-pricesif you haven't watched this video, you need to. such a sad story: The Internet's Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXr-2hwTk58note the 14 yo kid at the end of the video who discovered a cure for pancreatic cancer due to the release of the medical literature by Aaron. |
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way to go Greece. anyone with a long term chart?  |
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16000 crossed 9x today.
That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked. along with the end of day ramp. altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was. it can get truly ridiculous. Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm. Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy. My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times. Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar. i don't trade options as i'm very averse to time pressure. of course, the flipside of that is i'm exposed to infinite losses in either direction if i'm stubborn. i prefer to rely on a mixture of fundamentals and swing trading using cycles and other assorted indicators. as far as your theta trade, i've never understood how taking both sides of a trade and then selling the profitable one is any different than just shorting or buying a put after the underlying has gone up 2x or so. there are all sorts of strategies like this and they usually work until they don't. You didn't get it.. you're straddled so you CANT have infinite losses. Equity curve should look like a slight downward slope then big spikes up... that's a successful curve in my eyes with low risk.. however I dont know I think that more people doing this type of thing increases theta so much as market open that it removes any profit from the 2 hours that there is volume. Long term traders will tell you to cut your losses short and let the runners run... thus you're losses are the fees for opening the trades and closing from no movement and your runners are the free trades that you got from closing your winning side of the straddle at aggregate breakeven or in profit. i wasn't referring to your straddle when i said that i am exposed to infinite losses via long term trading. i think i understand what you're saying regarding your theta trade. it presumes a repeating pattern of 6h or so of downward movement with a late day ramp? you set up the straddle at the open, let them market grind down until your put has approx doubled or whatever, cover the put, and then wait for the last half hour spike? my point was, why not just buy 2h before the close? |
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16000 crossed 9x today.
That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked. along with the end of day ramp. altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was. it can get truly ridiculous. Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm. Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy. My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times. just to be clear, this is why i know the stock market is irrational and seldom reflects real valuations. 300-500 pt ramps repeatedly in the face of rumors that never came true have solidified this principle in my mind. i'm going to sit out this stock mkt volatility as i can't tell you how relieved i am to be in invested in a math based fixed supply currency. yes, it's volatile at times (but that's only b/c it's 5.5 yo) and prone to manipulation as well but not nearly as bad as the stock mkt. |
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16000 crossed 9x today.
That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked. along with the end of day ramp. altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was. it can get truly ridiculous. Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm. Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy. My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times. Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar. i don't trade options as i'm very averse to time pressure. of course, the flipside of that is i'm exposed to infinite losses in either direction if i'm stubborn. i prefer to rely on a mixture of fundamentals and swing trading using cycles and other assorted indicators. as far as your theta trade, i've never understood how taking both sides of a trade and then selling the profitable one is any different than just shorting or buying a put after the underlying has gone up 2x or so. there are all sorts of strategies like this and they usually work until they don't. |
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16000 crossed 9x today.
That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked. along with the end of day ramp. altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was. it can get truly ridiculous. Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm. Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy. My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times. |
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Actually, if we had 15 or 30 sec charts, it would have crossed 16k probably 20x.
The algos will hunt you down.
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