There are a lot of variables, such as when each input was mined?  Was it 2009 or 2010 so it was likely CPU mined?  Was it 2011-early 2013 when it was likely GPU or FPGA mined?  What year thereafter was it mined so that you could see the likely ASIC hardware used.  Then you'd have to have a guesstimate of the cost/watt of power.  You'd also want to then look at how long each block took to be mined since if it took 10 seconds, that is a lot different than 20 minutes.  Would you also include just the one miner who did it or all of the network attempting to mine that same block at the same time? The hash rate of the network vs the hash rate of a single miner?

You'd have to trace each input back to the block that mined it and calculate which it was.  You would also have to look at the percentage of a block that it was, e.g. if it was a full block reward (50? 25? that would depend on the year) that ended up in the "balance" or was it 1/10000. 

Do you also want to include the blocks that included the transfer from the block reward block to now and see what percentage of each block led to the current "balance"?

Of course, all of it would be an estimate and there are probably even more variables to take into account depending on how close you want to get to a true answer.

The correct answer is "no one knows."

I will say though that I've heard people say "they are going to wait to get in at a better price" since before US dollar parity.  And then when it was over $1, they were waiting for it to go back below $1.  Same at $10, $30, $100, $1000, $2000, $10000, $20000 etc.  Then at times like March of 2020, many people who had been waiting for a better price when it had been $10000 or $20000 didn't buy then either.

There are no guarantees about where it will go and no one can answer it.  The only thing to remember is that if you bought or mined at any time in the past (except perhaps in the last hour) you are way ahead right now as long as you bought and held.  

If you are unsure, you could figure out how much you want to buy and buy 10% of that amount per week over the next 10 weeks.  Dollar cost average into it.  No one knows if that will result in buying at a better average price or worse average price though.

Perhaps he just woke up. A lot of people should be waking up.  If the social networks and payment networks (e.g. Stripe) can stop the President of the United States from using them, no one is safe, let along a billionaire President.  The fascists and other authoritarians want to shut people without whom they disagree down and do not want to engage in debate.   The simple way is to stop those people from having a platform or being able to fund their speech.

As such, censorship resistant, distributed, p2p platforms such as bitcoin or twister are critical to anyone who cares about liberty.

Hopefully that is something Musk has realized now.

Just regarding the title

In the long term, I think it will work just as well in SA as compared to other countries, that is to say, very poorly.   People want to control what other people do with their lives and the products of their lives and that rarely works out well although they continue to attempt to do it.

"6 to 12 months" is a long time, but this is certainly welcome news.  The SEC is going to run out of reasons to disallow and ETF because there will be multiple vehicles to own bitcoin on the US markets.

You are right, the fee cut is a good thing.  Competition helps everyone.

I am surprised that it is only US corporations so far.  Anyone (individual or corporate) with any sense anywhere in the world should have some percentage in bitcoin in order to protect themselves.  Once some US corporations start, others will follow and other ones around the world will do so too.

I think back to 1993 when the WWW was very new and many people were naysayers and didn't understand it and didn't care to take the time to figure it out.  It took quite a while, in fact one might say more than a 10-20 years, before people really began to understand the impact it would have.  (That doesn't even include the internet itself and email prior to the www).  Hopefully this is the real beginning of people understanding the value of crypto, and bitcoin in particular.

Tesla doesn't have "the owner" it is s publicly traded company.  It has many people who on stock in it. 
Likewise, they didn't have to do this so that "they can finally accept bitcoins as a form of payment" - they could've accepted bitcoin as payment without buying ANY bitcoin, let alone $1.5 billion in bitcoin.

Any usage is good.  If Tesla is buying for their treasury, they aren't in it to trade, they are in it for other purposes, so why would this increase volatility?  If anything, bitcoin held by people not trading and who are using it as part of their portfolio and asset allocation decreases volatility.

If you are asking about alt coins vs bitcoin, bitcoin is the way to go.  There is still another order of magnitude or two remaining in fiat price if adoption continues as it has in the past.  Maybe more.  Most alt coins are centralized and don't have the mining power behind them helping to secure the network.  Many also have centralized developers.  Most are pretty scammy.

As far as what will happen tomorrow price wise, no one knows what the short term will bring, yesterday no one knew Elon was going to tweet about Tesla today for example.  There will be ups and downs.  If you aren't sure, buy 10% per week for 10 weeks.

People said similar things at $500, 550, and 600.  And then again at $5000, 5500, and 6000.  People even said the same type of thing at $50, 55, and 60.  The people that sold at any of those points may be regretting it now. 

A 50k-60k price range implies little growth from here.  The previous halvings and fiat price growth thereafter have been orders of magnitude increases. Things like Taproot, and corporate adoption have the potential to increase fiat prices (not to mention inflation) by 1 or two orders of magnitude, not "only" 10% or 20%.

Anyone who has bought and held except for at the high today has done well.  Since no one knows where bitcoin will be in the short term, all this trading in and out is only making the exchanges/markets rich.  Just buy some and hold for years.  The odds favor you doing well if you do so.  Obviously doing so at any point prior to today would've done better than doing so today.

The entire dogecoin stuff is fine for a humorous, fun thing, but (at least when it started) it was a continually inflating coin so it is a terrible store of value for the long term.  I don't have a problem with dogecoin, it just isn't someplace smart to hold money long term.

I said it in another thread, but Tesla's bitcoin purchase tells us everything one needs to know:  money talks, dogecoin walks.

Not to mention all the CO2 generated by complaining about bitcoin generating too much carbon.  :-)

Kidding aside, what about the amount spent on securing fiat  but the guards, the armored trucks, the airplane security, the security around printing presses, bank security while processing it. Perhaps you included that in moving it around, but there is just nonsense from naysayer luddites in this kind of thing. 

If you are trading, that is one thing.  If you go to your Tesla dealer and say, "here is 1 bitcoin for a Telsa" and your dealer then pays their employees in bitcoin who then buy groceries in bitcoin, then who needs trading? 

To me this just encourages people to stay in bitcoin.

Their actions (buying bitcoin) speak louder than words (re Dogecoin).  Dogecoin may be fun, but it is continually inflating so isn't a good store of value.  

Money talks, doge walks.

I hope you are wrong about bolded part, but time will tell. :-)  It certainly isn't there yet. Being able to remain in crypto without having to use centralized fiat gateways is a good goal and one that many people are working to make happen.  A driving factor will be "cancel culturing" people's ability to accept payments (like their social media).  Look at Stripe cancelling Trump's ability to accept payments (https://www.cnet.com/news/stripe-reportedly-quits-processing-payments-for-trump-campaign-website/ ) etc.  

The more the authoritarian collectivists attempt to shut down dissent by both muzzling people and preventing them from even accepting payments, the more likely people will realize they can stay in crypto.  I fear that this type of cancelling will continue to increase which could encourage this.

Who knows for sure though.

The more people in bitcoin, the longer bitcoin exists and the higher the fiat price, and the more stable it becomes which then knocks off one point of Steve Forbes' argument.

Agreed, but over what time period?  Fiat currencies lose value - by design - over time in order to pick the pockets of the masses of people and redistribute that value into someone else's pockets.  Steve knows that, and kind of deals with that "fixed value, being tied to gold or something".  Bitcoin handles that by being fixed in supply.  Bitcoin will eventually have a more stable value.  This is the "boot up" phases where the fiat price will be unstable, but appreciating for probably at least another order of magnitude or two until it reaches supply/demand equilibrium.



Says who?  Discredited statist economists? This is a feature, not a bug.  

I'm respect Steve Forbes for many things, but he isn't fully up to speed on crypto.

Authoritarians around the world who don't trust their citizens to make their own decisions, but more importantly, they want to control them. They want to control their speech speech and their money. Fascists do it privately like FB, Twitter etc, and socialists/communists in government do it like this.

Could they do it?  Perhaps they could scare some people, but the smart ones now are buying bitcoin so that when the gunmen who are trying to control India go for the bank accounts even more (e.g. like banning big notes in 2016), they'll have assets that are out of reach of them.

I was referring to his physical stature.  He mental stature may be similar, or he may just be a shill for the authoritarians.

I think he is a shill for the fiat loving "fat cats".  LOL

My thought in what he was implying was that he was saying bitcoin could be the next GME due to the large number of short positions that have been opened by hedge funds recently.  Eg he says "Now, data has revealed hedge funds are short bitcoin to the tune of more than $1 billion, even as retail traders pile into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies."

To me he is implying that given the large short interest, there could be a short squeeze on the exchanges if people buy bitcoin as they did GameStop and then don't sell enough to let the hedge funds cover their short interest.

The thing is, $1 billion in bitcoin isn't all that much compared to the market right now.  I guess we'll see.

Authoritarians around the world who don't trust their citizens to make their own decisions want to control them. They want to control their speech speech and their money. Fascists do it privately like FB, Twitter etc, and socialists/communists in government do it.

Vote freedom, not "free" stuff.