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481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 09:18:12 AM
So where exactly do you buy a .216 kg bag of rice?
482  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 08:33:33 AM
declining...8699 8719.

Why always on Sunday night? Darned stock futures and Asia trading, perhaps.

The halvening pump is over (or near enough). Time to find a new base for the 2021 bull.  

Hairy our dear friend.
Mean’t to spread some hopium.
Not to cut my breath.

A nice base would be ?
Seven full hours till halving.
Could live with 8 k.....



I'm still in favor of his $12k prediction.
That said, any prediction is out of the window atm.
After all, we have the rest of the year to find a solid base for the 2021 bull.

Yeah sorry everything is cancelled

Seriously, 9.4k was a gift
483  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 06:28:13 AM
declining...8699 8719.

Why always on Sunday night? Darned stock futures and Asia trading, perhaps.

The halvening pump is over (or near enough). Time to find a new base for the 2021 bull. 
484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 09:39:10 AM
I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?


630,000. current is 628,710
but nothing will happen. except drunkenness Roll Eyes

edit: so, under 9 days

You have just inspired me to dive into the very back of the liquor cabinet. 

I think this is from the late 1980s.  Should I drink it?

485  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 09:12:08 AM
Hairy!

welcome back!

now get the fuck back in your house


Yeah.  So I started a vegetable garden.  And the fucking possums are eating (ate) all my hot chili peppers.  Everything else is fine tho.  

Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call  Roll Eyes Kiss

Thanks Dude. I did hear a little ding-a-ling.  

It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.

I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?
486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 08:40:52 AM
Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats Grin

Let’s not rush to judgment now

Good to see you hale and hearty
487  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 07:48:09 AM
Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.

You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.

New York State sampling of random 15,000 people in grocery stores seems representative enough.

12.3% positives in the whole State.
19.9% positives in NYC.

About 2% in rural areas.

If you have a false positive rate of between 10 - 15%, I’m not sure you can learn anything from a 12.3% positivity rate.  

That’s pretty much exactly the result you would expect if no one had it.  

Also keep in mind that grocery stores are not random samples.  You still have to volunteer to be tested = self selecting sample.  People who think they have it, are much more likely to volunteer.   If 1 in 50 shoppers volunteer, you can do the math.  
488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 01:54:59 AM
SARS escaped from a Beijing virus lab, twice.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137

Edit: SARS has escaped six labs, including one in Singapore and one in Taiwan. Smallpox has escaped a UK lab, twice.  https://thebulletin.org/2014/03/threatened-pandemics-and-laboratory-escapes-self-fulfilling-prophecies/#
489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 12:58:57 AM
Remember back in early January when I had a cold? I just read on some local fb groups that back in late December early January a lot of people here in Scania were sick with what is now known as covid symptoms.
A consultant working for Tetra pak in Lund got a covid like cold after coming back from a vacation in northern Italy and infected his co workers, a woman working in a shopping mall in Löddeköpinge also had those symptoms and she said that many of her work mates also had those symptoms.
Nobody thought anything of it at the time, just a seasonal cold.

Now a whole ward at a hospital in Helsingborg, Scania, was just tested for covid, and 50% was positive.
The rate of sick and dead here in Scania is also surprisingly low, actually lower then in Denmark that is in lockdown.

I, and many with me, now thinks that maybe we here in the south got the virus early on, maybe a mild string, when it was still unknown here in Sweden, and that's why we are doing so good now, we might already have or be close to heard immunity.


Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.

You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.
490  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 12:34:49 AM
There is a good chance that here or hereabouts is the bottom



Wow this aged poorly lol.  

This one though was ok. 

Just look at that beautiful volume.

This could be the volume spike we need to seal the bottom of the bear market.


491  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 12:12:34 AM
This is a chart.  

I have closed all my open positions pre-halvening and now only in hodl mode.  Will see what happens post halvening.  When I re-enter, I will stay long only at very low leverage (under 1) until post 2021.

492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2020, 08:34:39 PM
Hi all

Just checking in to let you all know i am safely tucked up at home.  Focusing on growing a vegetable garden and ready to just ride it out.  I can’t go to a barber so may just end up a hippie with a ponytail. 

Peace
493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2020, 10:58:39 AM
Fear got the best of you too HM, sorry.

Italian coronavirus clinical guidelines:

Quote
“It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care.”

Those who are too old to have a high likelihood of recovery, or who have too low a number of “life-years” left even if they should survive, would be left to die.”

Quote
In addition to age, doctors and nurses are also advised to take a patient’s overall state of health into account: “The presence of comorbidities needs to be carefully evaluated.”

Quote
These guidelines apply even to patients who require intensive care for reasons other than the coronavirus, because they too make demands on the same scarce medical resources. As the document clarifies, “These criteria apply to all patients in intensive care, not just those infected with CoVid-19.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

So don’t get in a car crash because you may just be left to die, even if it was otherwise survivable.  

Now tell me again that I am overly concerned.  
494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2020, 10:12:40 AM
495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2020, 08:04:17 AM




China is already in the process of contention, if their data is correct and they do not lie to us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Infections often come in 3 - 4 waves.  China may have beaten Wave 1. 
496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2020, 06:37:33 AM
People aren't suddenly shitting more.

You clearly aren’t watching the stock market
497  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2020, 05:56:19 AM
OpenBazaar users not affected.
It's a beauty.

I wonder why did they ban anyway?

People are buying pallet loads to resell on EBay at a profit.  This stops the product from reaching people who need it (or they have to pay 10x the price). 

Profiteering is a criminal offense during wartime.  This is the same thing. 
498  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2020, 08:57:16 PM
Btw guys - you need to back off Mindrust. 

It could be $3k tomorrow, he buys back at a profit and looks like a genius.  These are uncertain times and we can’t be too hard on ourselves. 
499  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2020, 05:52:57 PM
Americans have very short attention spans so I suspect that this Corona thing will end in a couple of weeks.

The longer it lasts the more they will be willing to sacrifice whatever they can to make it just finish already.

The media hype will get desperate for attention but likely they will find some new shiny story to focus on.

It will be a problem for most, if not all of, 2020.  
500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 08:08:12 AM

Problem is I couldn't. My problem was buying too many dips recently. I was casually throwing $5k's. That was a huge mistake and was the main panic trigger for me.

Combined with that, what we just witnessed never happened before in the history of crypto If I am not wrong.

You are right.  That move was a first for crypto, and it is worrysome. It could be an indicator (much as we don't like it, deny it) that the market/trend has changed in some fundamental way.

For me the real negative sign was the failure, in an exponential spike, of 13500 and 10500 (twice), BELOW the ATH.  That had not happened before. Exponential rises to ATH are temporary exhaustions, but below (in TA) signal long bear trends.

Of course, there is the argument that BTC is not like other markets, but with this move in lockstep with stocks etc, it is looking more like BTC has matured .

Now lets hear the bull case.



21 million.


Patience Padawan
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