Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/ships-finally-moving-chinese-ports-rates-soar-200313085112600.html

China getting back to normal.  

Just in time to arrive in the USA and such and no one will be in the stores to buy these.

Timing it seems worldwide on many things from BTC/Crypto to whatever is in a conspiracy to befuddle us all it seems.

round and round and round in the same place for a bit, it seems.... looks around in same place if not backslid...sheesh

befuddlement will bring the world together

Stores in the U.S. are normal or packed with hoarders rn, but either way, think Amazon delivery buddy.  

Searing, I know you sort of revel in worry and anxiety in general but you still hodl on regardless which is admirable. However in times like this perhaps a little positive outlook would be good for the morale of the newbs if you can muster that up.  Just a thought.

Not negative IMHO, but pragmatic....I'm just saying as of the timing now the bottleneck eases in China it likely will happen at our end. But that is the timing of 'black swan' events

I gather a particular and unlikely combination of factors in the most unexpected and usually dire of directions.

As to moral boosting, assuming that BTC/Crypto MAY act as more of a speculative asset than store of value kinda thing, at least for a bit. If the Fed is dumping as they say on this Monday,

additional stimulus, as within the last week, a total combined of $2.5 Trillion dollars to stimulate the economy.

Well other countries, with how can I say this, with less of a stellar lookout for their own citizens may stop or

halt bank withdrawals and such as happened in Cyprus back in (2013?) I think.

Authoritarian leaning or more than leaning countries will start to print money on a scale likely even worse than the USA with the

corresponding inflation, loan and credit card interest rates may explode. Which is such developing countries could/would be catastrophic!

If this acts on a damper on how they use their money, the inflation rate of the particular countries' money explodes, limits on bank withdrawals, etc, etc.

If such DOES happen, then Plan B that is BTC/Crypto MAY again acts as a store of value. What we have seen so far is just temporary.

 Indeed, you could say, from an 'emergency' point of view BTC/Crypto has acted 'exactly' as it should in this pandemic crisis.

You need fast 24hr cash in a falling market that you can move across borders instantly to

fill up your emergency fund for 'real-life issues'. Like most of us, even in countries better off, not enough of a personal emergency fund coming out of the blue, black swan event that it is.

Now that this has passed and people start to look at the results of what they may have had to do as individuals to get through this, be it gov't or individuals and

look at the debt and other things (unfortunately, likely needed to do fast for a stable society and economy..even if you were only tossing $$$ at the problems)

you may have to do in this pandemic. I mean it is a frigging Black Swan Event, almost everyone believes that is the case.  So now you stop and think about what are the costs?

Is BTC/Crypto an alternative? Is this method now indeed both a speculative asset for quick emergencies as we have seen as well as an eventual alternative store of value to boot?

In a couple of months, BTC/Crypto may indeed look very good in the aftermath of all this pandemic and its 'black swan' flavoring.

But IMHO, this will be BTC/Crypto's moment of truth on if it is indeed a speculative asset only and like others and may come back due with modest adoption

but really is like other speculative assets take years to do so...so BTC/Crypto proven in this trial by fire, NOT to be a store of value. Just another speculative asset.

Or it does have some aspects as a store of value in a world that seems likely to have a lot of debt/credit to pull itself back into some kinda normalcy, especially, in developing countries?

So, kinda sad I have to go the route, a major frigging disaster of epic proportions, to frigging tell,  if BTC/Crypto to thrive, and act like both an emergency quick action 24/7 ATM for major

emergencies as we have seen. But also FINALLY prove to be a legit major store of value, when things settle down and the reality of economic costs come into play.

IMHO, BTC/Crypto was always the backstop against a black swan event like we are seeing now. This 'supposedly' is why I got into this and (mostly) in full HODL mode.

But again will BTC/Crypto rise to the occasion? Looks like this year of 2020 is when we are going to discover this.

Anyway, why I HODL, even though I like to play and game 'what if' senarios probably too much.

But man, I never saw this one coming in the manner that it has, that is for sure! Thus the universal view of this pandemic and unexpected results of every-one of this as

a black swan event.

anyway, for what it is worth

Brad

[Lambie Slayer]

Im a good bit of pages behind so sorry if someone already posted this.


Here is some serious Bitcoin Bull Porn right here.  

The (Central) Bank of England released a paper Thursday on Central Bank Digital Currencies, CBDC's.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/paper/2020/central-bank-digital-currency-opportunities-challenges-and-design-discussion-paper

Its long and mostly boring but a new idea is buried in it.

"There may also be benefits from remuneration for unconventional monetary policy. If interest rates are, and
continue to be, low then central banks are likely to be constrained by the lower bound more frequently than
historically was the case. A CBDC that could be remunerated at a negative rate   could be used to relax that
constraint, to the extent that the constraint was caused by the fact that cash pays zero interest (Bordo and
Levin (2019)). "

They just realized they can solve their problem of negative rates. You see they would like to have negative rates as the ultimate way to ruin savers and force them to spend their money on stuff they dont need and stay living paycheck to paycheck forever. Bankers know if they have negative rates for personal bank accounts then people will just withdraw their money and stash it. Cash pays zero interest and defeats negative interest rates.

Their solution is to give everyone Digital Banker Bucks and when they wanna have a negative interest rate, they just make your Digital Bucks disappear over time in your digital wallet if you dont run out and buy stuff with it.

To confuse people about the theft, the devious obscurantists call it "Negative Remuneration."  

Add that to the purposely confusing jargon vocabulary like Repos, Quantitative Easing, OMO, and POMO.

No wonder they freaked out about Libra, it was hard money compared to this.

[HairyMaclairy]

OpenBazaar users not affected.

It's a beauty.

I wonder why did they ban anyway?

People are buying pallet loads to resell on EBay at a profit.  This stops the product from reaching people who need it (or they have to pay 10x the price). 

Profiteering is a criminal offense during wartime.  This is the same thing. 

[bitebits]

What is money when you can call it a strange word 'repo' or 'term operation', then produce 500bil of it (actually, 4X500bil=2 tril) ON DEMAND.
It makes for a silly impression when I look online at my paystub.
The meaning of 'money" is somehow lost.
I guess this is why I am in bitcoin.

Because it is not money but a currency.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28903508/pistons-christian-wood-tests-positive-coronavirus

The NBA had every player in their league tested. Thats 300 players. 3 came back positive.

It a small sample but this is about the size of many presidential polls.

These were all people who appeared perfectly healthy at the time. Even Rudy Gobert, the first one tested, woke up Wed. feeling fine and ready to play a game. He had been feeling mildly sick for two days prior.

You see now what happens when healthy feeling celebrities start getting tested in mass. Tom Hanks, his wife, three NBA players and the first lady of Canada all have it. They all feel fine with little to zero symptoms. Amazing what happens when you dont only test people on deaths door.

300 NBA players showed a 1 percent infection rate. These people have not left the country, they all were in the middle of playing season when this started.

Wouldnt surprise me if 1 percent of the U.S. population is infected. Lets just say for some crazy reason an NBA player is 10 times more likely to catch Coronavirus than the average American. That would still imply we have 32,700 actual Coronavirus infections in the U.S. and only 61 deaths.

That would imply a .18 percent infection mortality rate. A bit less deadly than the Swine Flu.

Yes a bit more out of the 32700 infected could die, but its crazy anyway to assume that an NBA player is 10 times more likely to catch it than a regular person.

 

[HairyMaclairy]

People aren't suddenly shitting more.

You clearly aren’t watching the stock market

[VB1001]

“Flattening the Curve” is a deadly delusion

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

Good morning WO,s

[Paashaas]

There are 156,798 confirmed cases worldwide affecting 153 countries with 5,839 deaths.

- Countries reporting first cases: Gabon, Ghana, Trinidad and Tobago, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Suriname, Aruba, Guadeloupe, Cayman Islands, Uruguay, Venezuela, Guatemala, Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia, Rwanda and
  Uzbekistan.

- While in lockdown Italy reported 3000+ cases.

- First deaths confirmed in India and Scotland.

- Israel closes malls, restaurants and hotels.

- Colombia will deny entry to foreigners who have been in Europe or Asia in the last 14 days, closes border with Venezuela.

- Moroccan minister tests positive.

- Jordan closes border, suspend passenger flights, and ban public gatherings.

- Iraqi Kurdistan puts Erbil and Sulaymaniyah on lockdown.

- France is shutting down all restaurants, cafes, cinemas and non-essential retail shops.

- Spain declares national lockdown.

- Wife of Spain's prime minister tests positive

- Norway stops international flights from Monday morning

- Latvia closing border on Tuesday, immediately bans gatherings with more than 50 people.

- Czech Republic closes most stores and restaurants.

- Switzerland closes all schools.

- Berlin bans all gatherings with more than 50 people and closes cinemas, casinos, museums, and other entertainment venues.

- Everyone arriving in Australia must self-isolate for 14 days.

- US extends travel ban to UK and Ireland from Monday.

- Saudi Arabia has suspended all international flights for two weeks.

- Denmark temporarily closes borders to foreigners.

- Europe is now the world centre for the coronavirus outbreak, according to the WHO.

- Peru will suspend all flights to and from Europe and Asia for 30 days beginning on Monday.

- Lufthansa and Delta Airlines in talks for financial aid.

- UAE suspends tourism industry.

- The London marathon has been postponed until October 4.

- English Premier League season suspended.

- Formula One calls off Bahrain and Vietnam GPs following Australia cancellation, Zandvoort is highly unlikely.

- Chinese executive who called Xi a 'clown' over coronavirus response 'is missing'.

- Chinese official pushes the conspiracy theory that the U.S. Army is behind the coronavirus.

[JayJuanGee]

1 BTC being still equal to 1 BTC? I can give two shits about that.

Really I never understood what's the point of repeating that all the time.

Btw, 1 USD = 1 USD. So what?

1 USD= 1USD
sure.
Do you know the meme of the emptying cart, this well explain that even if 1 USD has always been equal to 1 USD, the true value (something similar to purchasing power) has been going down since inception (or 1971 at least).

So once again,
saying 1BTC=1BTC you are implying your numera ire, your basic unit of account,  is the BTC, not the dollar.

Your numeraire, your store of wealth, is the BTC, not the USD.
You are not investing USD in BTC (and price is going up).
You are investing BTC in USD (and price is going down, hence, don't hold in USD more than you are willing to lose).

When you increase your Bitcoin account you are not buying  BTC! You are selling USD!

This is, to me, the true meaning of this sentence.

I do understand what they think they mean... it is just that it is nonsense.

You now say 1 USD = 1 USD (because that's not arguable) but also say, as if it was a differential advantage of BTC, that the "true value" of USD has been going down. Great... because that's exactly what I mean when also BTC "true" value has come down... as in past days dump. In both cases, it doesn't mean anything if 1USD=1USD or 1BTC=1BTC. Also, something that obvious (it's a fucking equal not even a function) doesn't need to be repeated as if it were gonna change anytime soon. It won't. I know 1BTC will always be 1BTC.... no matter what that implies.

Also, when I do increase my BTC count 1BTC=1BTC... but look, when i do sell my BTC... 1 BTC still is equal to 1BTC! Wow! Magic!

The supermarket cart, OTOH, is a *GREAT* example/moto to use. 1BTC=1BTC is lame.

I guess we can agree to disagree on this one. I will never think it is a good slogan/moto to use when talking about BTC... much less during a dump. It sounds like the typical loser statement to me. As in... "the important thing is to participate, not to win"... Yeah, right.

Anyways... wake me up when 1BTC != 1BTC. That will be really interesting.

Your frustration regarding some of those kinds of talking points come off as completely justified to me, bitserve.

I have similar frustrations with the converting 100% to BTC crowd, and some of the hoopla to suggest that everyone should just be 100% in BTC and only use BTC for everything blah blah blah.

I don't really have any problems with attempting to advocate increased BTC liquidation avenues, yet the reality of the current matter remains our living in a fiat dominated world, so ultimately the value of BTC remains a floating currency relative to fiat, and the circumstances of BTC holders will also vary depending on whether they earn money in fiat or BTC and also how much value they need to pay for all their various living expenses, including how those are billed.

And surely many governments have not exactly facilitated clarity in terms of spending BTC... those fucks..... so besides the volatility risk of going back and forth between BTC and fiat, there remain potential accounting burdens.  And, ain't nobody got time for dat.

In any way that BTC HODLers are attempting to accumulate value, they likely going to need to account for dollar value of the assets from time to time.. whether it is merely to ground themselves into a kind of reality or it is a way to figure out whether it would be in their interest(s) to engage in some reallocation attempts.

Sure BTC could become dominant in several ways, but for the next 100 years, it is quite likely that there are going to be other assets and currencies that are going to need to be measured relative to bitcoin, and even if BTC were to become the one and only asset/currency that remains valuable, it is not like we can eat the shit, so it is still going to be measured in terms of goods and services and sure other kinds of things of value that might also be labeled as currencies or assets or collectibles.

For example, how many years will it take for the value of 1 BTC to equal the one hour services of 13.5 hookers,  the purchase of two brand spanking new mid-line lambos, and 69 helpings of blow?  Might take a few years before we reach that level of purchasing power... so you better fucking buy back some BTC, mindrust, if you want to hang with a few of the WO boyz (and girl) who have actually reached the superfluous level of double digit BTC!!!!!!!!!    

[VB1001]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

We will see the data of deceased today, the contagion curve continues to increase, but yesterday the number of deaths decreased and the number of recoveries increased, if today they follow the same trend, it may be a good sign.

[Tash]

“Flattening the Curve” is a deadly delusion

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

Good morning WO,s

Excluding China 3226 currently are in critical condition. 1518 of them in Italy
The average age of Italy's death from the COVID-19 dis ease is 80,3 for men and 84,2 for woman
Some countries have much better success rate than others, the aged cruise ship passenger are in better shape than a lot of others
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg54030813#msg54030813

edit
South Korea and France, what a contrast

[Ibian]

Spain enters official nationwide lockdown.

So does France from midnight.

Looks like everyone is starting to take this shit seriously. Except maybe UK... I donno if it is because they are doing good or ignoring the problem.

Ignoring it. They are going full commie, with all the usual problems that come with it.

[VB1001]

China is already in the process of contention, if their data is correct and they do not lie to us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

[JayJuanGee]

Today is the first day in like 2 years my nocoiner friend mentioned BTC and that he'd like to buy because he heard "it dropped 50%"   Bullish!  

Wow. Most people of that ilk think either 'it's ded' or 'it'll go lower' and then buy 5 minutes before the peak several years later.

Your man sounds like he was born to it.

When i picked up the kids at school today (which is closing down for at least two weeks now) i heard other parents talk about investing in bitcoin, because the price sunk $1000 (...) "No, it's even down $2000! ...", "Then i'm gonna buy for sure now!" ... (and so on). I didn't join the talk, but what i really heard from it was:

"Bitcoin is low, i'm gonna catch the falling knife"
"Bitcoin is even lower, i'm finally buy the blood and become a coiner"

So i guess that BTC will tank even lower after the rise from $4.x cools off.
Many people gonna loose their newly invested money to the whales, at least to some good percentage.
I'll wait for it. I can still buy on the way up until about $6.5k if i'm totally wrong.
My final word (opinion): Bitcoin will go lower before the slow rise to next ATH. When i look at all the pumps after 04/2019, i'd say the bottom could be somewhere between $3 and $3.5k.

You sound a bit too bearish, out of memory.  After a quickie 63% correction, it is likely better to be betting on up rather than down.. although I know that you are not shorting.. but you are hesitating to buy, and I suppose that is not really bad.. it is just seeming a bit overly pessimistic.

Good morning!

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

Fair enough response OOm, but I still believe that some additional clarification should be warranted, here.

Your post had come off as a bit pessimistic to me because you seem to be asserting that we have gone into a more bearish posture, which I believe is NOT completely convincing, because I am having difficulties conceding that this particular market has gone back into bear mode, even though the correction had gotten pretty damned severe..  but we have to see, yet, if the price is going to recover, or if we are going to significantly fall out of line with our current dominant BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe effects.

So, yeah if we linger down in these sub $6k prices for any kind of significant time, then maybe we might need to start to worry a bit... perhaps?

Otherwise, any of us should be considering if we are still in BTC accumulation stage or if we are in maintenance or liquidation stage.

If any guy had been in accumulation stage that involves DCA and buying on dips, then I don't see any reason to stop in those behaviors, even if you might have to adjust because your cashflow only comes in so rapidly.. so it takes a while to generate more cash if you already used it for both your DCA purchase and your buying on dip purchase.

I am having doubts about whether I should need to go into more detail here, with examples and such because maybe I would be going into overkill mode, but each of us should figure out where we are at and anyone in accumulation mode that employs DCA and buying on dip should be continuing with such.. but of course, such practice might partly be suspended because of a need to wait for MOAR monies to come in  through whatever are the normal cashflow channels.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.

I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

Thanks for sharing, no shame really. I'm also similarly positioned using bitcoin as my 100% savings. The only difference is that I don't need the capital I've allocated for any reason in the short term (except in emergency). I have a somewhat reliable income stream I can reasonably live from.
If you'll entertain, its a great lesson really.  Is your investments in Bitcoin to help bitcoin evolve or for some other reason?
Other reasons get complicated very easily as I'm sure you are aware and as Bitcoin stands it's ground, it will claim the advantage over unaltruistic investments.

A most prudent means to attempt to maximize bitcoin investment and savings is NOT to put 100% into it... because then when you need value for $ expenses, then you are fucked... you have to sell at the wrong time.

So of course it remains prudent to figure out your cash flow in such a way that you are neither having to cash out bitcoin at a time that is NOT at your own choosing and you have enough cash to support your various $ expenses.

Sure, from time to time, there could be shortages, but there should also be diligent efforts made to avoid those kinds of mistakes, especially with such a volatile asset, such as our lil fiend known as king daddy.

[eddie13]

- Chinese official pushes the conspiracy theory that the U.S. Army is behind the coronavirus.

This could be the most important part of the news right now IMO..

How much TP will you buy when it becomes obvious that WWIII is imminent?

China blaming us for a biological attack? Them's fightin words..


I think it's something china stole out of a lab like in in Canada, and then leaked from their wuhan lab..


Are they accusing the USA of a biological attack?
What are they trying to say?
Pretty sure we would nuke a motherfucker that bio-attacked us (I would)... So where do we stand?

[HairyMaclairy]

China is already in the process of contention, if their data is correct and they do not lie to us.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Infections often come in 3 - 4 waves.  China may have beaten Wave 1. 

[JayJuanGee]

Cool! I just noticed my bid for XMR at 0.0065 got filled and that its 0.0074 now... nice!

Never heard of it.   

[VB1001]

Now everyone will stay at their homes in the hope that things get under control asap and maybe there won't be needed an extension of the full lockdown after this 15 days pass.

Hi bitserve, to do it well, apart from closing bars, restaurants, gyms, cinemas, restaurants, yesterday, when the alert plan was announced, and the president said that "everyone stays at home", it is useless.
If you force a part of the country to shut yourself up at home, but the president says:

That people can go to their jobs on Monday, the contagion will inevitably continue to increase, he is stupid.

Spain as always, making a fool of itself due to its political leaders.

I hope that we can overcome this crisis without reaching extreme situations.

[JayJuanGee]

glad you're OK tocic

hope you can stick around

+1 WOsMerit

 

Thanks for the update, but some things cannot be explained or predicted by TA.
TA always reacts to events and has almost zero predictive ability.

+1 WOsMerit

 

Just do not check the price of the coins.

Impossible.

+1WOsMerit

 

Look who comes back as a "stingy as ever" fuck.  



 


Gotta give you a +1WOsMerit for that...  toxic_moxic...