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561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 10, 2019, 04:11:06 AM
^That's pretty badass
562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 10, 2019, 03:52:17 AM
A message from the future:

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin link=topic=178336.msg51769658#msg51769658
I’ve had about 5 bottles of Prosecco on my own.

My harem is fast asleep.

Trying to stay still & quiet.

Been snorting coke off the asses of hookers in the lambo since 8pm

I totaled the lambo an hour ago. Gotta buy a couple more tomorrow. The replacement hookers are included Grin
563  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Rogue Wave on: July 10, 2019, 12:03:03 AM
Quote from: Shelby
Quote from: Shelby
It was Satoshi's fault Segwit was compatible with Bitcoin's protocol rules.

We discussed that in the Long-term advance notice! thread.

Satoshi (actually the global elite) outsmarted you. SegWit is compatible with the protocol, but incompatible with a Nash equilibrium, because a huge “anyone can spend” booty piles up (currently 6 million BTC).

Actually, Satoshi very clearly intended for new transaction types to be implemented exactly as Segwit was: https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/posts/bitcointalk/126/

I repeat again that we already discussed that and I rebuked your misunderstanding of what Satoshi wrote per the link you cited.

Go read again my (as relayed by @jbreher) rebuttal of @figmentofmyass’s quote of Satoshi, by clicking the following link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5147618.msg51388201#msg51388201

Let me further quote Satoshi Nakamoto from the link you provided:

The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime […]

I don't believe a second, compatible implementation of Bitcoin will ever be a good idea.  So much of the design depends on all nodes getting exactly identical results in lockstep that a second implementation would be a menace to the network.  The MIT license is compatible with all other licenses and commercial uses, so there is no need to rewrite it from a licensing standpoint.

Satoshi (who is actually the think tank of the global elite who run this world behind the curtain) provided in Bitcoin’s protocol for a political consensus “soft fork” to be attempted, but clearly understood it would not be a good idea. The reason it’s not a good idea is for the reason I have already explained numerous times to you in my prior posts. Specifically that it creates a huge “anyone can spend” donations booty which miners must take, as the only way to restore the Nash equilibrium. A Nash equilibrium is in this context a game theory that forces miners to mine on only one longest chain and thus that makes Bitcoin a reliable store-of-value. The Core BitcOn-job temporary dissolves the Nash equilibrium while the booty piles up (currently 6 million BTC in SegWit UTXO ready for donating to the miners when they’re sufficiently incentivized and ready to start spending the booty to themselves when they win a block).

Political consensus is not a stable Schelling point because it has no fundamental value and no single-best, one-and-only Nash equilibrium (whereas multiple Nash equilibriums is the antithesis of what a Nash equilibrium means, i.e. the miners and token hodlers must have one strategy that is always best, not multiple choice chaos). The economic opportunity cost of the 6+ million BTC booty is a fundamental value. And only immutability of Satoshi’s “v0.1” protocol provides the unforgeable costliness (i.e. not innumerable forks) that gives Bitcoin unique, rare, hardcapped money supply. Political consensus is never assured and stable (i.e. it is only an ephemeral illusion), because it changes with the political wind. Political consensus is a power vacuum (i.e. not a stable value) that the fundamental economic opportunity cost must manipulate and capture. Fools like you do not understand fundamental economics nor the fundamental nature of political-economics. Again I will refer you to the writings of a man with a 160 I.Q. (i.e. 4 SD) and the comments of his numerous 3 and 4 SD I.Q. commentators:

Some Iron Laws of Political Economics

The global elite are rounding all of you sheepeople into a corral for harvesting. Lol. They have this planned out. I explained in the Long-term advance notice! thread that the global elite financed Blockstream to hoist this Core SegWit scam, so they can fleece all the BTC of minions and idiots before they prepare to back Facebook’s 666 Libra currency with Bitcoin, thus making Bitcoin a world reserve currency that the uber elite control and own. You fucktards and your worthless network of nodes and exchanges are not needed at all. The global elite can create everything they need. The only point of this exercise has been to hoist the 666 system on the world in a clever, surreptitious (but in plain sight because people are stoopid), and insidious way so that you idiots would actually rally, cheer, and support your enslavement. Lol. Sheepeople such as all of you who are commenting in this thread, are fucking hilariously stoopid.



You just don't understand the game theory involved.

An idiot who doesn’t comprehend game theory trying to claim I do not understand the game theory involved. Lol.

If you doubt whether the miners have the concentrated resources to enforce the donations of the 6 million BTC (and growing)  “anyone can spend” booty, I suggest you re-read what @jbreher wrote as quoted in the Long-term advance notice! thread.

When BTC is say $50,000 in May 2020 at the halving (the approximate date when Craig is ostensibly promising to initiate the donations taking) and assuming that SegWit booty has grown to perhaps 8 million BTC by then, that will be $400 billion in value with which to finance monopolizing all ASIC production. You fucking sheepeople idiots and your worthless networks of worthless nodes and worthless exchanges are irrelevant. Money (economics) talks, BS (talk, cheerleading, politics, and other hot air) walks.

You keep falsely asserting the most rational decision miners can make is to hard fork away from the majority of the network. You've done absolutely nothing to demonstrate this as a rational move. You perpetually fail to account for the lack of market value of the miner's fork. 6 million hard forked shitcoins valued at $0 is still $0.

Masturbation does not procreate. Politics does not create value. Power vacuums have no value and are merely for the taking by those who actually possess the power to take them against all others who might attempt to take. This is the definition of a power vacuum. A SegWit booty is a power vacuum.

Abstractly I already cited for you well respected research that explains that nodes in a network are worthless without valuable connections between, i.e. the economically relative nodes are those that the global elite provide because they control most of the BTC and the outcomes. It is the relative value of valuable connections between nodes that impart value to the whole network. We can essentially remove 99% of the nodes and most of the value is retained, because most nodes do not have valuable interconnections. The analogous logic can be applied to network effects also.

The global elite have this planned out very well. They will back Libra with their real, immutable Bitcoin after Libra is adopted worldwide due to the strong dollar vortex that will force people and companies of all nations to use Libra instead of their national currencies as their local currencies collapse in relative value to the US dollar which backs Libra (along with UK pound, Euros, and Yen).

After the SegWit donations attack, everyone will think Bitcoin died. The Tulip Mania story will be spread all over the news. The altcoins will collapse into the abyss. And the world will turn to Facebook’s Libra as a more reliable electronic currency that can actually scale and has a stable value relative to the four nation-state fiat reserve currencies that Libra is backed with.

So killing Core BitcOn has been the plan all along so that they could usher in Libra. Then later as the US dollar peaks in value and starts to fail as the world is in total monetary chaos/crisis, they will then reveal that the real Bitcoin never died and that it is worth $1+ million per BTC. And they will start backing Libra with it, transitioning away from the U.S. Dollar to the cheers of the world which will have suffered so much from the strong dollar vortex monetary crisis (further abetted by Libra). In that way they bring us onto a 666 enslavement system which they entirely own.

BECAUSE YOU ALL ARE TOO STOOPID TO SEE WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES.

The only people economically interested in this conspiracy theory are the miners stealing Segwit outputs. There are no other Bitcoin users who rationally, for economic reasons, would fork their software. Thus, you have not demonstrated why there would be any market demand for your shitcoin.

Blah, blah, blah. You’re an idiot who is going to fall into the woodchipper where you belong. You should not disrespect people who are much wiser and smarter than you, but yet you do. Hahaha. My popcorn is ready.

So you have Mircea Popescu, the colluding miners engaging in mass theft, and a few Aspergers-laden retards like yourself. That sure sounds like a network that will see mass/institutional adoption! We're all right behind you! Roll Eyes

Hahaha. Go read @jbrefer’s post that I linked for you, fool.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but you have completely misinterpreted the source of Bitcoin's value. It is derived from its network. You can't have a network with hundreds of users and no economic activity and have it retain any value.

Lol, the only bubble you’re bursting is the irrelevance of worthless nodes and worthless networks.

It's just going to be like the last D&D game you played with your ragtag band of retard friends in your Mom's basement. No one will fucking notice you or care that you exist. Network data shows the network won't even notice you left. You would just be forking yourselves off the network into irrelevance.

Dude I am 54 years old. Keep on dreaming retard. And do not disappear when I am proven correct. I will be curious to see what you can say at that juncture. How will you react mentally and emotionally when everything I wrote is proven to be absolutely prescient?

[…]

Quote from: Shelby
Interested individuals should re-read all the prior discussion.

They certainly should. It's obvious you keep neglecting to address the massive holes in your ridiculous theory, which have been pointed out repeatedly. You merely keep repeating your claims ad nauseum with an attitude of authority, as if that's a respectable debate method. You are incredibly dishonest intellectually.

Quote from: Shelby
Remember I am perfectly happy if no one listens to me.

Good because that's already the position you occupy.......

Lol. You do not speak for those who hodl millions of BTC. The important people listen. Because if they fail to listen, they will be impoverished and not important anymore. So after the SegWit donations restoration of the one-and-only, immutable, no-worthless-scammer-Core-political-circus-consensus, Satoshi “v0.1” real Bitcoin (i.e. not scammer Ver’s BCH nor scammer Craig’s BSV), all remaining important people will effectively have listened to me, or acted on their own analysis which is congruent with what I have written. Given I am the only person who has actively relayed this information from the bowels of the logs at trilema.com, presumably they’ve obtained their information from me or directly from my original source.



Quote from: anonymous wrote in email
We differ when we get to opportunity cost. As in, I don't think it's likely that there is one.

BTC can't be dumped for TRB because TRB will be blacklisted from any and every legitimate exchange and OTC broker. The few shady Chinese exchanges that may list it won't have any liquidity. Similarly, the Etherum DAO "attacker" couldn't spend his ETH anywhere. Hell, CSW sued a few people around the twitterverse and several of the largest exchanges delisted BSV. How much worse shape will TRB be in when the authorities declare segwit booty coins to all be considered stolen property?

Also, it would be much too risky, legally. People would go to jail or get killed for taking the booty. With the booty stolen, major exchanges would lose money, banks would lose money, oligarchs would lose money, nation states would lose money. Those people are the elite, and they would absolutely crush any miners who stole from them.

Besides all of that, it would be a PR nightmare. No one would trust the miners and TRB chain anymore. If the miners could collaborate to steal the segwit booty, they could also collaborate to start double spending on it at any point.

Here is my opinion. You are free to have your own opinion. And one of us will be correct. I dare you to store your BTC in SegWit addresses that begin with a 3 if you have conviction about your opinion. Put your money where your mouth is, I certainly am.

I'm keeping all my BTC in legacy addresses. I've advised others to do the same. However, I'd estimate there's only something like a 10-15% chance that the booty will ever be taken.

Quote from: Shelby
I have a strong opinion which will seem quite judgmental. Unfortunately like most people you are apparently easily fooled by manipulated optics and not able to drill down to fundamental generative essence economics and game theory. Most people are prone to a delusion that reality is that which is openly visible. It’s some sort of carryover from our evolution in our ancestral environment. We are still very much herding animals, so easy to be fooled like sheep.

Essence of Genius

Or you're just too emotionally and/or egotistically (as your link above would imply) invested in your narrative to see or acknowledge other possibilities. Whenever someone says that something is 100% certain to happen, that sends up a huge, red flag. When it's something like the segwit booty being claimed by miners, there are two many moving parts and variables, some known and some unknown, to draw a certain conclusion.

Quote from: Shelby
Regarding exchanges, please re-read what I wrote in an earlier post in this thread. Also re-read my points there about the uber elite trade on OTC which will never blacklist anything that can earn a matchmaker lucrative commissions. The powers-that-be control the exchanges. These “bucket shops” are a dog and pony circus they setup to fool you. It’s analogous to a facade of a building on a Hollywood set.

Indeed (the “PR nightmare”) creating the illusion that Bitcoin died is part of the timing of bringing their 666 Facebook Libra to prominence. I explained that in more detail above. Then later the powers-that-be (i.e. the uber wealthy who will control most of the BTC after the minions are kicked off by the donations taking and the rising transaction fees) bring back the real Bitcoin which never died and start backing Libra with it.

Haven’t you ever wondered why Bitcoin recieved so much airtime in the Zionist controlled mass media? Facebook’s Libra is most definitely Zionists controlled.

The entire point is to fool everyone. Because goyim sheepeople are so easy to fool. It’s akin to taking candy from babies.

Your delusion about the law is especially unremarkable:

Quote
“Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws”

The uber wealthy are above the law. The law is for enslaving sheepeople. My gosh you folks live in some fantasy which does not exist. Please try to come back in touch with reality.

Virtually no one with any power has a significant amount of bitcoin.

Quote from: Shelby
Additionally there’s no law which prevents miners from obeying the immutable protocol. Where did you dream up this illegality nonsense? Cryptocurrency is not banking. There are no consumer protection laws. It is really amazing to me that you would make such a mistake in your thought process.

You're thinking like a computer scientist and not like a bureaucrat. Even common law would be enough to prosecute miners for defrauding thousands of people.

Quote from: Shelby
That is also helps to discredit decentralized cryptocurrency so as to aid the acceptance and preference for the lack of permissionlessness in FacebooK’s Libra. Burning the fingertips of crypto fools up to their armpits is how to make the public view the lack of permissionlessness in Facebook Libra as an advantage over that “scam” of decentralized cryptocurrency which preceded Libra.

Also I had already explained in great detail how the miners who partake will be able to cash out of their free air-drop of Core shitcoins (to altcoins, fiat, etc) using Tether in a way that exchanges will be incapable of blacklisting. Go back to the Long-term advance notice thread and also find the posts I made on Steemit about that specific point.

Quote from: anonymous wrote in email
If the miners could collaborate to steal the segwit booty, they could also collaborate to start double spending on it at any point.

Damnit I am so tired of reading this same nonsense point repeated after I have refuted it so many times. Why can’t you guys assimilate and remember what I write?

The Schelling point is only for maintaining the immutability of Satoshi’s protocol. There is no Schelling point around double-spending. Think it out. I explained this in great detail in the past and I am not going to repeat it all again or go digging to find the post where I did spoon fed the detailed logic. This is exhausting. I am not going to hold your hand every time you cross the street without looking both directions. Go lose your BTC in SegWit addresses. Lol.

Cripes would you sheepeople at least learn something about game theory before slobbering more nonsense.

The Schelling point has shifted to segwit. The fact that the Schelling point was 1MB two years ago is becoming less and less relevant. The Schelling point of money used to be seashells. These things change, and in the bitcoin world they change at incredible speed.

Furthermore, you can't demonstrate conclusively that we're not at a Nash equilibrium currently. The linchpin of your entire theory is based on pure speculation that powerful elites will flood into TRB.

I'll publicly state that this is quite possible, but far from a certainty.

Edit: After thinking about it some more, I'm willing to concede that if the right elites get involved, the other problems could disappear.

I began thinking about the 2008 housing crisis in the US, and how the elites committed fraud, crashed the economy, took millions of homes from people, and laughed all the way to the bank.
Quote
And no one went to jail. In fact, the government gave the banks more money, and executive bonuses hit new records. This seems to be an analogous situation to the segwit booty theft.
564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 08:41:56 PM
Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.

Yeah I wavered a bit on how to word it. I dunno
565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 08:29:57 PM
That's my style Jay!
566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 08:21:28 PM
If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame....

Lets find out. New poll time!

Old poll results:



567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 07:07:58 PM
All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

2022 seems to be the consensus. IMO that's a good indicator that we'll moon before or after 2022. Probably before, since most people also seem to be convinced that the BTC cycles are lengthening.
568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 03:47:28 PM
Something really strange happened today. I came home from work, hit the treadmill, then collapsed on the couch, exhausted and dizzy. I fell into a strange trancelike state. Suddenly, the sunlight coming in my windows turned bright red, and I heard a booming, almost deafening voice:

BEHOLD! I AM KARHU!

Me: WTF is going on...

SILENCE! YOU WILL LISTEN AND OBEY.

Me: Okay...

THE BLOOD OF THE BULLS HAS SATIATED MY HUNGER. I HAVE RETURNED, AND WITH MORE POWER THAN EVER BEFORE!

AFTER YEARS OF PAIN AND DARKNESS, I WILL NOW REWARD MY FOLLOWERS WITH ALL MY GLORY AND WONDER!

BUT FIRST, YOU SHALL BEAR WITNESS TO THE THREE SIGNS:

1. AFTER HIS LONG REIGN IN THIS WORLD, THE FEROCIOUS BEAR SPIRIT SHALL SHOW HIMSELF TO YOU IN HIS LLAMA FORM ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS THE OMEN OF HIS PASSING.

Me: A bear llama?

2. A GREAT MAYOR SHALL RETURN TO HIS PEOPLE. ONLY THEN WILL YOU BE PREPARED FOR WHAT'S TO COME.

3. WHEN THE VALUE OF THE MOONCOIN REACHES TEN THOUSAND SCORE, YOU WILL MAKE A FINAL SACRIFICE TO ME.

Me: You want us to sell our bitcoin at $100,000?

NO! I NOW DEMAND BEAR BLOOD.

Me: So you want us to buy more bitcoin at $100,000? That's crazy!

YOU MUST PROVE YOUR FAITH TO KARHU. ONLY THE MOST FAITHFUL AND RIGHTEOUS COINERS WILL BE REWARDED.

DO AS I COMMAND, AND I WILL BRING MY GLORIOUS BITCOIN KINGDOM UNTO YOU! EVERY FAITHFUL COINER SHALL RECEIVE 7 NASTY, FILTHY SLUTS. FOR EVERY RIGHTEOUS COINER, THE LAMBOS AND BLOW WILL FLOW LIKE WATER.

Me: That doesn't even make any sense.

SILENCE! NOW GO FORTH, AND DELIVER MY MESSAGE TO YOUR FELLOW WALL OBSERVERS!

At that point, I must've passed out. My wife found me asleep on the couch. I'm still trying to make sense of all this...

That's fucking crazy.

I especially don't like the 7 filthy slut limit.

I would rather have a limit on Lambos and blow, and let the filthy sluts flow.... so I am a bit disappointed with these skimpy quotas of riches.

Fuck, I just realized it was supposed to be 72 sluts.
569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 03:38:04 PM
I tend to agree with filbfilb's two likely scenarios, though they could end up being too conservative.



I'd rather see 175K in 2021 than 100K in 2020, but I don't really have a say in the matter. Hookers, blow, lambos, etc. all around either way.

Yeah, but you are also agreeing with a scenario that says down to about $6k levels before up, and such significant levels of down may or may not be in our current cards. What happens if our current level of down to $9,600 is already in?  How about that?  Would that stifle any upward move?  Maybe even causing upward to be more bullish, even though such a scenario would seem beyond our current expectations and seemingly unsustainable, right?

Is this filbfilb in the Tone Vays/Tyler Jenks hyperwave camp?  Those guys were saying down before UP too, when we were in the sub $4ks, and perhaps now, they have a back up "down before up" scenario that they would like to present, that may or may not happen, especially if we might have some decent upwards BTC price pressures that also might include BIGGER players wanting to come in... at least relatively BIGGER players in comparison to earlier stages of 2013 and 2017.

He's not part of the Tone Vays retard club. He posted that chart over a year ago. It shows a bottom between 3,300 and 5,000 at the beginning of 2019.

The fact that we're well above his projection for this point (about $6,000) may invalidate the chart. The chart may not be going high enough, quickly enough, or it could just be wrong altogether.
570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 04:36:26 AM
I tend to agree with filbfilb's two likely scenarios, though they could end up being too conservative.



I'd rather see 175K in 2021 than 100K in 2020, but I don't really have a say in the matter. Hookers, blow, lambos, etc. all around either way.
571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 02:36:15 AM
I'm sad that I missed the discussion about bimbos and fake tits. That's the reason I come to this thread.
572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2019, 02:28:34 AM
I'm an impartial messenger.

Quote from: Shelby
Bitcoin is a govt[powers-that-be who control the nations behind the curtain] created scam to try and distract people from real money (physical metals) and trick them into a digital only, cashless society slavery system.

Actually by now I can agree with you on this point and conclude this is very likely true:

Facebook’s Libra + Bitcoin + Trump + Israel = 666 Orwellian Dystopia

The Rogue Wave

Yet the move away from gold is very natural at this time, because of the advent of the Internet. Gold is archaic because its mass is attached when it’s transacted. Whereas PoW cryptocurrencies’ mass (the miners’ equipment) is detached enabling new paradigms in trustlessness, permissionlessness, and transaction efficiencies.

Yet ASIC mining is a problem because it can likely be cornered by the elite. Later after all the minions are kicked off Bitcoin (by the premeditated Core BitcOn-job Trojan Horse), Libra is a global medium-of-exchange backed by the real Bitcoin, the global elite might be in the position to potentially turn the PoW in Bitcoin into a permissioned system controlled by the Antichrist.

I think it is fair/honest/honorable/open-minded that we must recognize when @realr0ach has made a point which could possibly be true. Otherwise, groupthink gridlock is a very deleterious state of politics.
573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Facebook’s Libra + Bitcoin + Trump + Israel = 666 Orwellian Dystopia on: July 04, 2019, 04:40:27 PM
Quote from: Shelby
That Shelby character must have a lot of time in his hands, writing all those long well-thought out conspiracy theories.




OK, if believing that you are unique, and special makes you feel better.

Quote

He's like a flat-earther of the Bitcoin community.

You got that logic transposed. Remember those who thought the earth was round were considered heretics by the vast majority of their era.

You’re the flat-earther. I can think outside the peer pressure box and propose a theory about the earth being round, which is heretical inside your mainstream world.

But thanks for making my point for me.


I believe in reality, and that any effort by miners to steal Segwit outputs will be invalid, and then cause a hard fork, then leaving your "Real Bitcoin" chain with very little value to the community. While you believe it will be the end of Bitcoin, the end of Segwit, and that you win.

Who's the flat-earther?

An obvious counterpoint would be that "the community" is irrelevant, economically. Mircea Popescu alone probably has more BTC than the 10,000+ people who ran full nodes, signalling for the UASF segwit fork.

That raises an obvious question: Will "The Real Bitcoin" be more valuable to the big players?
574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2019, 02:19:49 PM
You are wrong. The US monetary system (and the EU too) is debt based and made to work optimally under ever increasing debt.

No, I am not wrong.  Debt based fiat requires infinite growth to not collapse.  Without growth, interest rates would need to be set to zero, which is what we already have...and what Japan has had for a long time.  Interest rates are actually negative vs inflation.  Regardless, it's impossible for borrowing to not have a carrying cost.  Trying to nigger rig no carrying costs is just a temporary can kicking ploy that creates epic levels of malinvestment, which then implodes the system in a much bigger crash than having just left interest rates at their normal levels.

You then run into another problem.  The monetary unit literally is debt.  Interest generating loans and the currency itself (which also generates interest) are erroneously classified as assets and used as collateral when debt is always a liability and never collateral.  The prolonged 0% interest rate is guaranteed to create a malinvestment bubble which will bust and create massive deflation and collapse the system when it does from all crosslinked loans going bad because the banks cannot handle any form of deflation.

But back to the carrying cost aspect.  Fiat dollars are considered assets because if you have enough of them, they can (at some times) generate a lot of interest for you.  If interest rates are zero because growth is impossible due to peak working age demographic in every nation that matters, and peak energy use - because energy is what powers the economy and the world doesn't have infinite energy to give - then fiat is no longer an asset and then turns into a liability.  Once fiat is a liability, the world is guaranteed to go back to physical metals regardless in almost every aspect.

There are other ways to keep the shell game going. Governments can eat some of the debt. We keep hearing from the communist presidential candidates that they want to cancel out all student loan debt, for example.
We saw during the great recession the government ate the debt of the ((bankers)). Then, the central banks eat the debt.
575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2019, 02:56:44 AM

What are people thinking buying or holding Scammers Vision Coin? I try an play devils advocate sometimes and cant figure out how you can justify it. At least go with BCash if you believe all the big blocker cult teachings, but what can possibly make you choose Scammers Vision. I really dont get it.

By the way Im not really looking for an answer here, anymore than I want to know why some people like golden showers or to eat poop.  Wink

CSW =\= BcashSV
576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2019, 12:01:53 AM
So, BTC is back up. Fitting nicely into the fib channel (whatever that means), still on the parabolic curve (whatever that means), retracement is not complete (whatever that means), news hawk continue to shank bitcoin so their employer can maintain the ad whore levels, and I don't care. Bitcoin is going to go where it wants to go. Namely up. Maybe a few dips and divots from time-to-time, but the future is decidedly up.

Now, a serious question with a few caveats: Caveats first. I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume that the population of regulars on the WO are spread, somewhat, along these lines: ages 20s 60%, 30s 15%, 40s 15%, and the remainder 50s plus. The percentages don't really matter all that much, they just help me visualize the group as a whole.

Now, again, I believe that most here are what I would call 'bag holders'. Those who have accumulated a stash and have no plans to divest any substantial amount. You do realize that you are the bankers of the future, don't you?

So my question to you all: Have you considered your exit plans?

I fit comfortably in the smallest percentile by age, so this is something for me to seriously consider. Right at this moment I believe that I will begin to withdraw fiat in small amounts when the price stays at 20k or above. Considering my current health, I believe that I have some ten, or so, years to withdraw most of my coins. I have already done some estate planning so that my administrator will, hopefully, know what to do when I pass.

Side note: I've tried retirement twice. It didn't stick either time. Too much time to do nothing much. Youth is wasted on the young.

So, what are your exit plans?

/OG

I would guess that the average age skews a bit higher, like 35-40.

My preferred exit plan is something like what I infer Bob did. I'd begin selling 5% of my crypto/corn per week, beginning at a predetermined price point, until I've sold half. I plan to let the other half ride, mostly, and use it for large expenditures - new cars, vacations, etc.

With the half that is now fiat, I'd buy a new house somewhere warmer. The rest I'd put it in a traditional investment plan - like 80% stocks/20% bonds, for instance. I'd withdraw 4% annually (the standard withdrawal rate), probably on a monthly basis. This would be my "income".
577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 03, 2019, 04:22:19 PM
Oh shit
578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 03, 2019, 03:29:26 AM
Poll results:


I haven't been very active, but am still around.

hodlsleep.jpg
579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2019, 01:54:51 AM
His parents haven't been able to figure it out either. That's why decided to just let him live out the rest of his days in their basement.
580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 29, 2019, 03:30:05 AM
Quote from: Shelby Moore
And mining CAN'T expand by an order of magnitude to drag cost of production up or it would use more power than the entire United States.

Hyperstagflation is coming over the next decade.

Increases in price of everything we need to use, deflation in price of everything we used to buy with debt.

Additionally $200+k would be a peak price after the halving so the cost of production would be halved. And indeed maybe every old ASIC would be incentivized to mine that peak, but the rest of the people will have to buy BTC because there is a limited supply of ASICs.

Wth the $1 million peak probably not until after another or two more halvings after 2020, thus 1/4 to 1/8 of the production cost required by that juncture.

P.S. It’s the limited supply of ASICs that makes the Core SegWit donations attack even more viable.

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