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1401
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 15, 2018, 02:53:23 PM
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Anybody mind explaining to me how tether works and how it's relevant to bitcoin price at all?
1. There is a blockchain that is unlike any other in that it has no protocol defining the coin supply automatically. It just gets added to manually on an arbitrary basis by a human being 2. The ability to do this is under the exclusive power of a private company registered in the Cayman Islands with a couple or more private shareholders 3. There is a notional idea that the amount of coin supply represents the amount of "real" $USD that is sent to the bank accounts of that company registerred in the Cayman Islands. But this is simply an unverifiable fairy tail as far as regular traders and observers are concerned HOW IT AFFECTS BITCOIN 1. Many of the biggest exchanges in the world that quote "USD" prices for bitcoin are actually trading bitcoin against this "synthetic blockchain dollar" as opposed to real bank deposits 2. In particular, the largest exchange in the world (is it ?) - or one of them, Bitfinex 3. Bitfinex also happens to be owned/run by the same owners of the Cayman Islands company that produce the "fake" dollars, So this would effectively allow them to create any amount of liquidity for nothing on the USD side of the trade and buy of the bitcoin on their own or other exchanges, thereby creating hugely artificial market pumps/dumps. We do in fact see Bitfinex leading the price in a lot of pumps as we did today 4. There are some well researched articles showing that the Bitfinex/USD Tether operation has essentially been responsible for the ENTIRE price rise in bitcoin right from $180 to where we are today Having said that they do claim to have proven the funds and even if tether is worth 0, it still only accounts for only 2.01% of the total market cap of bitcoin, so appart from the FUD value, it's relitivly meaningless. They've surely had enough USD to back the USDT in circulation at certain points. At other points in time, they probably haven't. This is why they were able to get a law firm to sign a letter basically saying "they have enough money to back all the USDT at the moment," yet accounting firms run away in horror as soon as they see Tether's books. |
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1402
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 14, 2018, 07:33:12 PM
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Fake chart. Real unemployment doubled after 2008 and never went down. There is not a "next" financial crisis because the 2008 one never left in the first place. It's one big downward spiral while they rig DOW numbers to try and convince people it's not. In the end, they will be forced to remonetize metals as the unserviceable debt implodes everything. Or they will refuse, everything implodes anyway, then the free market does it naturally. The free market is not going to choose any valueless, imaginary, digital ponzi schemes to replace the previous digital ponzi scheme that just imploded either. The market is going to take a flying leap back to the most ultra safest thing possible, and we all know what that is - physical metals.  My personal experience, while anecdotal, is contradictory. I'm the GM of a construction company. We've had a very hard time finding workers for the last several years. We've had to significantly boost our rates of pay and benefits to workers. Also, we've had so much work, that we've been having to turn projects away every year. All of our subcontractors, competitors, etc. who I've talked to are in the same boat. |
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1404
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 12, 2018, 05:47:22 PM
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Anybody think close to $10,000 is possible by the end of 2018. I’d love to hope so, really don’t want to see us dip (and stay) $6,000.
I think we all know that we’ll obviously see another ATH but it’s so frustrating living out these multi year bear markets. I hope we don’t grind around the current price level for too much longer.
Would love to see above $10,000 again before too long. Psychologically it just seems an area of strength to be north of 10k, probably just me though.
A surprise ETF approval could bring us that high, thought it may be temporary. |
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1415
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 03, 2018, 02:47:58 PM
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Bitcoin doesn't give a fuck what regulations we put on it. If it ever does, we'll just use Monero.
For crypto transfers, large or small, it's a good solution indeed. But if conversion to fiat is needed, it's back to KYC/AML one way or another. In several years, I'm hoping we won't need fiat conversion. But yeah, we're pretty much stuck in KYC/AML hell until then. |
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1416
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 03, 2018, 02:04:46 PM
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Still, (I think) Bitcoin was not meant as a way to evade tax or capital controls but to be your own bank by having direct control of your money.
BTC might initially have had those former uses, but is steadily moving away from its experimental past, and that is a very big positive. Regulations treating BTC as a mainstream asset, including AML and institutional KYC, are already essential at the fiat interface, but the treatment of transfers in crypto alone are a different question. On one level, regulations about crypto transfers are defacto recognising it offically as money. That may not be a route that monetary authorities want to go down at present. In most juristictions, all valuable assets are required to be registered in some way,and that usually is a positve in terms of ownership law and security. If BTC is outside that system it will always have a deficiency in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition. I would envisage BTC and some other cryptos eventually coming within all of that, with most others remaining in the grey zone ,with the concomitant freedoms and also drawbacks of that status. Surely the primary facet of cryptos (and the one for which BTC was born) is to provide a parallel monetary store and exchange system, as a refuge from the eventual insolvency of the current fiat regime ? Over the long term, the free market should decide whether that is a worthy, recognised or necessary function. Bitcoin doesn't give a fuck what regulations we put on it. If it ever does, we'll just use Monero. |
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1418
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 02, 2018, 03:07:30 PM
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Jay, don't take it to heart. Some people can't be helped, and they only learn when life teaches them through pain. When bitcoin reaches a high enough number, they always come back. With all due respect, mister kingcoiner, who exactly are these people you are referring to? I don't buy Bitcoins. I sure as shit don't panic buy them. I sell them. Oodles of them. The only question is: Will I wait for yet another leg down to finally pull the trigger. Interesting aside: According to contemporary action theory there is a clear distinction between the structural causes of events and the triggering causes. The structural cause of my cashing out is set. The triggering cause is any minute now. And also and finally: Don't encourage Jay to be a goon. It's not good. It seems to me you used to be more fun. Godspeed Rosewater. |
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1420
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 02, 2018, 03:50:32 AM
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Just bought s'moar. Dollar cost averaging on its way, especially on the way down as someone else has drilled into our collective heads  I hope my timing is lucky this time around. Not so much for the small advantage of buying slightly cheaper, but as a good start for a year final bull run in bitcoin's best tradition. Every moon climb begins by tackling a hill. I've had some laddered buy orders sitting around for months going from $5,200 to $3,800, or something like that. Tempted to cancel those and just buy in around current levels, as bull season has begun. I'll likely buy in higher if I see confirmation that the bear trend is over. Of course, you can tweak your orders at any time; however, I doubt that it hurts having orders that go down the spectrum of possibilities, just in case. Largely, since about early February, I have maintained buy orders down to $3k; however, I have tweaked them from time to time, too. I have also held onto a decent size reserve of funds that are ready to buy down to $1k and even lower, even though I have continued to have considerable doubts about any of those price levels being reached in this particular correction cycle. Part of the satisfaction of cashing out at higher levels and all the way up to $19k was to be able to adjust and to have a reserve that goes further down the price scale, just in case the BTC price corrects further than expected and longer than expected (which continues to be within the realm of reasonable (even if extreme) possibilities). Accordingly, I would not completely cancel any of those orders down to $3,800, yet you can tweak them in a couple of ways by changing their size or their increments and/or just pulling some more money from other places in order to buy more around the ballpark of current prices. Ultimately, the way that you tweak should be to accommodate your own changes in sentiment, yet completely cancelling or taking BIG moves seems to be more of a gambling approach rather than a meaningful attempt at some kind of semblance of sound investment (if bitcoin can be placed into such category with its continued expected extreme volatility potential). That's true. It would probably be more responsible to keep the laddered buy orders, but maybe move them up to a more realistic price area. |
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