Best guess, right now, is that it reverts to 200 WMA after a capitulation spike far below. I could live with that quite happily.
I agree with you. I think talk of staying down at 300WMA or 400WMA is apocalypse porn. I like Murad's analysis and it's certainly not impossible, but it's towards the bearish end of the spectrum of realistic scenarios for me. Other end is heavy defence at ~$3,200 and only a brief dip below $3k. |
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Like the 200wma. It's the talisman that the previous ath was in the last bear market. Too many people think it can't be broken. Consequently it's begging to be broken.
I don’t think anyone is saying it can’t be broken. It was broken a number of times in 2015. Staying deep below it is another story tho. Well, barely, you're right. It kind of bumped along it for a while, was never deep below it for more than that capitulation spike. But it does seem to be the line in the sand a lot of people are drawing, one way or the other. I am not denying that there will be a global tightening of sphincters when (if) the 200WMA is crossed. But it’s going to be defended like fuck. The order book gets fatter than a Kardashian ass real fast. Best guess, right now, is that it reverts to 200 WMA after a capitulation spike far below. I could live with that quite happily. |
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Like the 200wma. It's the talisman that the previous ath was in the last bear market. Too many people think it can't be broken. Consequently it's begging to be broken.
I don’t think anyone is saying it can’t be broken. It was broken a number of times in 2015. Staying deep below it is another story tho. Well, barely, you're right. It kind of bumped along it for a while, was never deep below it for more than that capitulation spike. But it does seem to be the line in the sand a lot of people are drawing, one way or the other. |
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I feel like your charts are often pull-from-thyne-ass. Historically bear market lows have been set before 11 months prior to each halving. We should expect the same again.
I appreciate that. I will note that for the majority of traders the greatest mistake is having expectations. I think it's not being prepared to change their expectations on the basis of new information. Like the 200wma. It's the talisman that the previous ath was in the last bear market. Too many people think it can't be broken. Consequently it's begging to be broken. |
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In TA-related news, Top Crypto Trader Says BTC May Go Up if it Goes Up, Go Down if it Goes Down. https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/01/26/bitcoin-btc-could-be-gearing-up-for-a-big-move-as-sideways-trading-persists/Although this weekend is off to an involatile start so far, Mayne, a popular cryptocurrency trader, noted in a recent tweet that Bitcoin could very well climb higher in the coming days if it is able to break above a few key levels.
“$BTC if we break above the grey block you can add or wait until a break and close above yearly open to add,” he said, with the referenced “grey block” existing around $3,650.
Mayne later noted that Bitcoin has moved closer to this region, and if it is able to break above its yearly open at approximately $3,700 it could see a price surge up to $4,000.  That's TA in a nutshell. That's newsBTC in a nutshell. I don't know where they get their writers but there is zero insight or accuracy. |
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It stuck to the £10 notes. I didn’t have any £5 notes this time. I used a good old black permanent Sharpie - £1 for 3 @ Poundland  I'm totally going to start doing this. |
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Going to the bank in a bit so thought I’d have a bit of fun but also do my bit tor the community  Totally merited. Hopefully I'll see one of these circulating in the future. Does the dye stick to the new £5 and £10s? |
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Sure, looks like a very simple 'DIY ATM' that anyone can use. Hand over cash, merchant (or whoever) prints you out a slip with a code you can redeem into your wallet. Not sure what's going on behind the scenes but I assume it's a little more sophisticated than printing out a plaintext privkey. |
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For this to make sense, am I to assume, according to this twatter consipracy theory expert you quote, that 2 Russian GRU officers being there were merely 'visiting Salisbury to admire cathedral spire' and had nothing to do with what happened while they were there?
So far they published videos of those 2 dudes walking around Salisbury while being Russians, not much else. Not a single video puts them on the scene of the crime. We don't see them touching the doorknob, we don't see them near the bench. Only "walking around Salisbury" charge is 100% proven. Agreed, it is very suspicious the Skripals didn't have a CCTV camera pointing at their doorknob. Also, it makes perfect sense two guys would fly to UK with the sole intent of seeing Salisbury Cathedral's 123-metre tall spire. It is the tallest in the country and a tourist magnet. |
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If the Democrats refuse this deal, I fear we'll legitimately be facing a civil war situation. God help us all. I'd offer to help but you lot lost the right to that when you threw that tea party back in the 18th century. And we're kind of busy with our own impending civil war. |
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Including batching in 2019 - but also including Proof of Proof txs, which apparently count for ~20% of network activity or something. Still, demand is demand. |
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Exchange Security :  Erm... Cryptopia actually got hacked. I'm pretty sure it should have a worse rating than 'B'. I mean, I'm all for having a shot in the dark based on criteria on paper and everything, but at some point that comes up against the cold, hard reality of someone nicking all your cash. |
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Yeah well the idea is the price gets trapped between the 200 Weekly MA (purple line) and the downtrend. It is left with nowhere to go so gets forced up and breaks the downtrend. But the price is still around the same level as it is today - it just tracks sideway in a range of $3250 - $4,000.
This is the scenario I see as most likely. But I won't rule out a final capitulation event, crashing below 200 WMA and coming back above it in short order. It would feel weird to end a cycle without that. Kind of like watching a film with a deeply unsatisfactory ending like The Birds or Contact. |
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Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.
100% agree. This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only. The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in. Really we have two choices. Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer. I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management. Ah, cheers for the clarification. I doubt the cycles will be that different but a few days/weeks could make a lot of difference. We'll know soon. |
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Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.
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The Telegraph acting like CoinTelegraph. [sigh] |
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Today in Krakow
Tomorrow trip to Auschwitz
Thinking about Roach
Been there and it's sobering. I did it so I could look fucks like roach in the eye and say 'have you even been?'.
The banality of evil is the truth... and good men saying nothing is what allows it to prosper. The sheer scale of it is hard to grasp. Then you see an individual pigtail or shoe. |
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Wall Observer thread
has turned towards poetry.
Capitulation.
A little late to the party but I heard this one recently: Haikus are always Heptadekasyllabic Exactly like this. Though I don't think the party will even start until $3200, and then it could go either way. |
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^^ Not bullish. Ready for a long squeeze.
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