SgtSpike: ok. Have you considered the possibility that the bubble might pop before July 1st? You might want to get 20 BTC now rather than 40 BTC later. As they say, 1 bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush  |
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- you make an instant profit the day the sale is made
Get Hardware cost in about 1 day --- then all profit
Look at it from this viewpoint: when starting an ASIC project you have the choice between: (1) pre-selling the device and getting the money today even before starting most of the project's work, or (2) spending months to develop it then maybe mining your money back, if no competition as launched before you, if the exchange rate has not dropped, and if you do not get delayed by the complexity of scaling up a mining farm (again, see ASICMINER). Frankly, you should understand why most chose option (1). - you "lock" such profits in USD
go to mtgox and convert BTC to $ or any other money
- scaling up is easy: no mining farm to maintain, just shipping parcels to customers
who want to ship product to customer ? they complain -- lose orders -- want support-- return product to be fixed - put shit comments on forums---
- easier to put rig in warehouse and turn on
If it is so easy, perhaps you should just go offer your services to ASICMINER and show them how it is done They still struggle to deploy more than 6-7 Thash/s 2 months after they started (Feb 12) and they supposedly have another 5-6 Thash/s powered off doing nothing due to lack of power/cooling and network scaling issues, while Avalon has deployed 20 Th/s to customers in 2 months (batch 1), and is about to ship 40 Thash/s in the next month (batch 2). |
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But it needs also luck. 51% of hashrate is not enough to succesfully create longer blockchain.
At less than 50% you need luck, but at more than 50% it is guaranteed you will eventually overrun the blockchain. See graph on page 8 of https://bitcoil.co.il/Doublespend.pdf Currently, friedcat, with 10% of the network hashrate, has a 1 in 1000 chance of succeeding in a double spend, even if the recipient waits for 6 confirmations. |
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This whole 51% attack fear seems way overblown to me though. In order for one to succeed would you not need to convince someone to accept a zero-confirmations transaction, seconds after the attack was made? And then, run out of there like a bat out of hell?
No. A majority attack allows the attacker to recover his coins that were sent out in transactions confirmed by multiple blocks. This is pretty much the ultimate blow to confidence in Bitcoin. With that said, it is not in friedcat's financial interest to perform such attacks, as it would undermine the validity of his own Bitcoin wealth. |
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SgtSpike: I am willing to buy you out.
I am incredibly busy right now, and do not have time to look up all the details, but can you confirm that Micon vs. you is the same bet as Micon vs. me, except the power requirement which is 150+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. you) instead of 350+ Mhash/J (Micon vs. me) ? If that is the case, yes I will definitely buy your 20 BTC share.
Micon: after I buy SgtSpike out, I can add more coins.
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Suppose, you have equipment to produce ASICs. Why would you want to sell those ASICs to anybody instead of mining bitcoins and other coins yourself?
Because this: You don't understand the whole context of the Avalon project. It is very simple:
Avalon was started by 2 young engineers who had almost no money (*), and no or little experience designing ASICs. They had no choice but to sell pre-orders at a low price (due to the overall risk and uncertainty of the project) to acquire the initial capital required to develop a 110nm chip and the machines ($200-300k or so). Once they successfully manufactured the first batch of Avalons, they honored the pre-orders because they are ethical persons. If they had say at this point "f*ck you, customers, we will mine with your hardware and not ship it to you", this would have enraged the community, destroyed their reputation (so no batch #2 and no batch #3 sales revenues for them), and it would have possibly disrupted confidence in Bitcoin due to 2 guys controlling the majority of the hashing power, possibly destroying the exchange rate and their potential mining profits.
That's why. If you knew the 2 guys, you would see they care deeply about the future of Bitcoin and about ethics.
(*) ngzhang did not make that much profits from previous FPGA sales, and yifu did not bring capital AFAICS.
Also, selling hardware guarantees that: - you make an instant profit the day the sale is made - you "lock" such profits in USD - scaling up is easy: no mining farm to maintain, just shipping parcels to customers Whereas mining is inherently more risky: - what if an ASIC miner competitor causes the difficulty to quickly increase before you deploy your own mining capacity - what if the bitcoin exchange rate crashes - maintaining a mining farm introduces additional complexities (case in point: ASICMINER supposedly manufactured 12 Thash/s, but they have been unable to deploy more than 6-7 Th/s for 1.5 months) - etc All in all, it is a risk/reward tradeoff. Yes mining can be more profitable, but it is a lot riskier. |
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It'd be better to say that I used to think of Bitcoin as a currency, but now realize it's a speculation backed pseudo-commodity. There's nothing wrong with taking investments or loans in a currency, inflationary or deflationary. Taking loans in commodities that change value 300% in a few days, not so much.
Generally loans are long-term. It is mostly irrelevant if there is a "300% swing over a few days" (short term). What matters is the long term. And taking loans in currency that is inflationary in the long term is totally fine (most of the world economy demonstrates it), whereas taking loans in currency that is deflationary in the long term will always be a bad idea. |
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I wish I could afford to have that same sentiment, but all my debts are in BTC, so when I make BTC, I pay debts regardless of the price of BTC. Let this be a reminder to anyone, never make loans or bets in BTC unless you're purposely trying to add risk.
You have 5k+ posts and you are only now figuring out that it is a bad idea to take debts in a deflationary currency? |
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willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB. I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.
How about:
100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date: 6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.
I am not sure BFL can ship by June 1st... |
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They are a full YEAR behind schedual!
6 months. Not a full year. Please don't spread misinformation. With that said, I agree with your criticism that we need more competition. Beside Avalon and BFL, we have ASICMINER, and the "100TH-mine" company ( you can buy shares, see business plan and thread). Disclosure: I am long on 100TH-mine. |
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I think you need to look at your math again. If he buys BTC75 worth of shares at BTC0.75, that would give him 100 shares exactly. Using the last dividend, that would net him BTC0.25555300. Which, as you pointed out was small. Using the lowest dividend from a week without lots of expenses (March 7th) of BTC0.01917149, would have earned him...
Counting on future dividends of 0.01917149 is an unrealistic estimation. This amount was paid back when friedcat was trying to return all the money (or, as much as possible) to the IPO investors. Since then, friedcat has reduced dividends significantly. As others have estimated, dividends are expected to be around 0.006-0.007 (assuming no large expenses) given that AM has about 10% of the total hash rate. |
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Please take this debate about the cheapest power somewhere else, thanks. Yes, I have actually been to Douglas county when I was GPU mining. This is not a debate. You asked for feedback. I gave you feedback. I was expecting an answer where you would explain why power cost does not seem important enough to make it the #1 priority... |
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Agreed, very good interview. Colas gave correct technical answers, while explaining Bitcoin's potential and risks at the same time.
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Come-from-Beyond: really sorry but I just gave the deal of selling a small amount of BTE at .0003 BTC to btbrae (he purchased the rest at .0004), and my price is now .0006 per BTE. You may want to buy from phantastisch as he has a slightly better price than me (.00055).
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btbrae just agreed to buy at a rate of .0004 BTC per BTE I am now increasing my rate to .0006 BTC per BTE. I limit the amount of BTE sold to 1k per trade. |
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I am selling 1k BTE for .4 BTC.
I'll give u 0.2 BTC for 1k BTE. If interested, pm me. I would consider .3 BTC. But I will sell no more than 100 BTE at this price (so .03 BTC for 100 BTE). Sorry, I can't transfer less than 0.1 BTC. Wow, what online wallet has such restrictions? You might want to ask them to lower the limit. |
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I am selling 1k BTE for .4 BTC.
I'll give u 0.2 BTC for 1k BTE. If interested, pm me. I would consider .3 BTC. But I will sell no more than 100 BTE at this price (so .03 BTC for 100 BTE). |
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I am selling 1k BTE for .4 BTC.
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