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621  Economy / Speculation / Re: Argentina heading for a repeat of 2001 collapse on: June 18, 2014, 01:03:10 AM
The more interesting takeaway from this is:

1) The U.S. Supreme Court is telling banks they must give access to Argentina's assets stored in their banks.
2) Bitcoin can be used by countries just as easily as it can by individuals to protect wealth from seizure.

If Argentina so decided, it could transfer all assets to Bitcoin and there is nothing their creditors could do, short of war (sending forces in to seize the private keys), to collect.
622  Economy / Speculation / Re: What big company will be the last to accept Bitcoin? on: June 18, 2014, 12:49:38 AM
The US Gub'mint  Wink

I'll be more specific in my answer:  The IRS.
623  Economy / Speculation / Re: Data backing continued exponential price increases for Bitcoin on: June 17, 2014, 11:06:18 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law
624  Economy / Speculation / Re: Data backing continued exponential price increases for Bitcoin on: June 17, 2014, 09:48:20 PM
I've been analyzing further.  When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential.  Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.
625  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bubble incoming! $3800 - $4000 expected on: June 17, 2014, 08:18:01 PM
We are now in a pennent. This wil probably break out to the top. Next point of resistance wil be 650 to 660.
Pennants are short-term continuation patterns that mark a small consolidation before the previous move resumes. The sharp move up of the flagpole usually occurs on heavy volume. Target of a pennant: The length of the flagpole can be applied to the resistance break or support break of the flag/pennant to estimate the advance or decline.



Good call.
626  Economy / Speculation / Metcalfe's Law: Bitcoin Price and Adoption Analysis for the Future on: June 17, 2014, 04:00:50 PM
We have now hit an all time high for Bitcoin adoption, and it looks to continue its upward trend.  As you can see, Bitcoin's price is heavily correlated with the Metcalfe's Law value of Unique Addresses ^2.  I see no signs of this correlation changing, nor of adoption slowing.  This implies a continuation of the exponential rise in Bitcoin's price.  Sometimes adoption leads price, and sometimes price leads adoption.  You can see this if you analyze the long-term trend in the top chart.  At this point it looks like adoption is going to lead price.



Here is the chart zoomed into the right side of the chart for better analysis:


Edit: Updated 9/8/2014 with latest data.
627  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pool Double-Spend Solution on: June 17, 2014, 02:26:05 PM
good idea. It is not possible to determine where a block came from. The statistics currently only work because pool operators allow their blocks to be easily identified as "mined by xyz", they could just as well begin mining anonymous blocks.


If you folks like this idea, can we get it pushed through to a core dev.
628  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pool Double-Spend Solution on: June 16, 2014, 08:26:57 AM
The mining app should give whatever data is available through getblocktemplate to a Bitcoin client.  That client should check it and tell the mining app if the block looks acceptable for mining.  Each client can implement the check however it sees fit.  But the interface offered by the client to mining apps should be standardized.
629  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pool Double-Spend Solution on: June 15, 2014, 05:30:44 AM
The idea is not bad but im not sure if we are ready technically to implement it

What would be the next step here?  What is the process for getting this idea before those who design standardized client functionality?
630  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2014, 04:38:23 AM

I really like that.
631  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2014, 04:34:11 AM
Typical Bitcoin.  Up 50 points and it's going to the moon.  Down 50 points and Bitcoin is dead.  Certainly you've been around long enough to see this?  The worse the gloom, the bigger the bounce will be.
632  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are we still on for July? on: June 14, 2014, 04:32:26 AM
There's still another black swan event coming up: Bitlicense.
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-taking-bitcoin-exchange-applications-2014-3

"Lawsky also said the state will issue a final regulatory framework for digital currency businesses no later than Q2 of 2014."

On the contrary, that would result in a huge influx of capital into Bitcoin.  That's the opposite of black swan.  For those who'd rather stay on the down low, you always have the option of using exchanges outside the U.S.
633  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2014, 04:21:16 AM
FUCK!

that is all.

goodnight.

I'd give you a beer, but all my coins are in cold storage...
634  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2014, 04:18:49 AM
I can't figure out how fonzie got off my ignore list. Remedied now...

635  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2014, 04:16:19 AM
Why the sudden gloom?  Price is falling a bit but still way up from April.

Some bad news that I did not see? Karpelès bought GHash.io?  The FBI seized the blockchain?  Satoshi committed seppuku?

Well, that depends Professor.  Do you live in California?
http://www.sacbee.com/2014/06/10/6473631/california-teacher-tenure-firing.html
636  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2014, 04:05:27 AM
We haven't made any new lows here.  I'm not sure what you're complaining about.  My own analysis shows we could go down as low as 420 before the exponential rise.  Any lower and then I start to worry.
637  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pool Double-Spend Solution on: June 14, 2014, 03:43:09 AM
The idea is not bad but im not sure if we are ready technically to implement it

The new mining protocol is already implemented.  We need to design the client interface that mining apps will use.
638  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pool Double-Spend Solution on: June 14, 2014, 02:14:49 AM
It's the latter.  But the mining app still needs a standard way to compare against the data in the blockchain.  We want this to work the same on all Bitcoin clients.  Then the miner simply runs a Bitcoin client, the mining app, and points the app to the pool and client.  And voila, no more double spends being hashed by miners connecting to a pool.  This protects against a pool operator directing his pool of miners to hash his double spend attempts.
639  Economy / Speculation / Re: FBI Seized coins on the move on: June 14, 2014, 01:33:56 AM
No.  Hold.
640  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Pool Double-Spend Solution on: June 14, 2014, 01:19:33 AM
we need a standard way for mining apps to query if a block is a double-spend from the Bitcoin network.  This needs to be queried not from the pool (obviously) but from a Bitcoin client.  We need to make this easy for mining apps to implement so they pick up this functionality quickly.

Since the pool creates the block, and doesn't broadcast it until AFTER it is solved, it is impossible to determine if the block that the miner is working on contains a double spend unless you get the information from the pool.


No, that's the old getwork mining protocol.  What we're discussing here is the newer getblocktemplate protocol.  Please read more about it here: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Getblocktemplate.  What we need in addition to this is a way for mining apps to check the blockchain and compare against the current block.
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