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6861  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the weekend the best time to buy bitcoins? on: April 18, 2012, 07:29:21 PM
Is the weekend the best time to buy bitcoins?  I've lots of people say the price dips a bit at the weekends.  Should I wait until Saturday or Sunday to buy my small amount of bitcoins from Intersango or does it not matter really?

Here's a thread with discussion on the topic:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63312.0

There is a pattern where if Bitcoin is in a downtrend, even a short-term one (where the current week's high is lower than the previous week's high), then over the weekend the exchange rate will often be lower than it was earlier in the week.  The concept behind it is that miners and others can sell 24/7 but speculators and investors moving funds from banks cat only add those funds during the week.

For the past couple of weeks, that downtrend has not continued.  Thus conditions aren't ripe for a "weekend dip" this particular weekend.   It could still happen, just that the weekend dip strategy doesn't suggest this weekend as being one where there is a consistent pattern that might be considered for trading.  Also there have been times when the biggest rallies happened on a weekend.  For a speculator intending on making a big buy, what better time to put a ton of cash to work by catching other buyers unprepared to compete for those bitcoins.

Of course, many patterns are eventually recognized and traded against.  So just as this pattern used to see swings of at least 5% and often times 20% over the weekends, lately we are seeing 2% to 5% and less even.

This is expected as we now have the ability to move cash between several exchanges (which helps to make all exchange markets more efficient, fewer arbitrage opportunities) to easily buy on margin and to short bitcoins (e.g., Bitcoinica), to buy and sell CALL and PUT options (e..g., MPEx) and to take advantage of all the other financial innovations.

tl;dr: Bitcoin is maturing and its future may not look anything like its past.
6862  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Question about the GLBSE on: April 18, 2012, 10:01:28 AM
Just today the operator of the exchange was looking to acquire the domain for GLBSE.bit
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77009

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/GLBSE

As far as "owner", there are others with investment towards it, apparently.  There is not an LLC or other corporate entity called GLBSE though.
 
6863  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: VirWox Question on: April 18, 2012, 09:43:45 AM
Im from the states and looking to purchase bitcoins.

If you are in the states, are you familiar with the "deposit cash at a bank" method used by BitInstant and Aurum X Change?

BitInstant will even handle the exchange part if you choose "by e-mail".

 - http://www.BitInstant.com
6864  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Can anyone recommend a trusted BTC escrow service? on: April 18, 2012, 09:37:10 AM
You might wish to try the #bitcoin-escrow IRC channel.  It is attended to by individuals, many of whom are willing to serve as escrow (for a fee).  You can verify their trust history in the #bitcoin-otc Web of Trust (WoT).

 - http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=#bitcoin-escrow
6865  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bitcoin escrow services on: April 18, 2012, 09:35:25 AM
And its back up, but no recent forum login for the BTCrow account.
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=27514

Sites run anonymously just don't have a great track record in the bitcoin world.

I do see that there is the #bitcoin-escrow IRC channel attended by individuals, most whom are willing to offer escrow (for a fee).  They're rated on #bitcoin-otc Web of Trust (WoT)
 - http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=#bitcoin-escrow
6866  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: WTF is up with Dwolla?!? They're even bigger dirtballs than I thought!! on: April 18, 2012, 09:12:09 AM
Need a clean response. Is there another service that allows me to put money into mtgox via my bank account or debit card? (USA) For little to no fee.

If your bank has online bill payment, CampBX will work as a "vendor".  If you instead can wait, they'll take a personal check as well.

There are others (e.g., Get-Bitcoin.com) , but there are higher fees.

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Buying_bitcoins
6867  Local / Pilipinas / Re: Pilipinas (Philippines) on: April 18, 2012, 06:48:19 AM
I just started a website for a service that buys and sells bitcoins for pesos. I closely follow market rates. Check it out here: BTCPHP.com

Do you have any trust history already, such as with the #bitcoin-otc Web of Trust (WoT)?
 - http://wiki.bitcoin-otc.com/wiki/OTC_Rating_System

If not, would you consider accepting escrow to help with a first trade?

For instance, on the #bitcoin-escrow IRC channel, there are long-timers (and others more recent) from the bitcoin community who offer to act as escrow for a small fee (e.g., 1%).  The escrow partner receives the bitcoins from the buyer, you as the exchange send the Pesos (PHPs) (e.g., using GCash) and then the buyer tells the escrow partner to release the bitcoins to you.
 - http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=#bitcoin-escrow
6868  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events on: April 18, 2012, 05:00:50 AM
People asked for clarification here at the forum, I told them how I interpret the claim and put the same statements for others to see on the site. What would be the appropriate thing to do in your opinion?

I'm not sure.  The problem I see is that when there is an ambiguity in a bet, those betting earlier are disadvantaged then when at a later time that ambiguity gets cleared up.

In this specific instance, the bet was fairly clear the way I read it.  If a trade occurred at 1.10 BTC or higher, the statement would be true.  

The way these "share auctions" work there isn't a single IPO price.  The range of prices will be from the highest bid on down to the price paid for last share that is sold:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76594.msg850319#msg850319

And yes, since even a single share can be bid on with any price, the range used in determining the outcome for this bet can be easily manipulated.

So the bet itself was flawed.  It probably should have been cancelled, the bets returned, and possibly a new bet created without the flaw corrected.   Or to let it continue as-is, without comment or correction and deal with the manipulation issue if one exists at the time the site moderators decide the outcome.

Of course prior to the change the grand total of 1.4 BTC had been bet so if anyone has a real problem with the change, it isn't a big financial deal at stake.

But let's say this is like the real world and there are significant amounts of money riding on this.  If that IPO range ends up being 1.09 BTC to 1.15 with the majority of shares trading at or over 1.10 then your change just made the outcome of the bet to be False.  Any rational person functioning as a site moderator would have determined that the IPO price of 1.10 was definitely reached.  Those who had already placed bets on Agree prior to your change get cheated in this instance, essentially.

I trust the site moderators to be rational at the end of the bet had this conflict occurred.  Whatever decision they come up with would be the best decision based on the information at the time it is made.  That's what I am counting on when I place a bet.

So my point was simply, if a bet is bad enough that it needs clarifying, then it is bad enough to be cancelled.  I don't think this bet reached that threshold of needing to be canceled and thus should have been left as-is, ... in my opinion.
6869  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up. on: April 18, 2012, 03:32:22 AM
Are we seeing a start of the Mint Chip Bump?

The mint chip is good for bitcoin?  As in the reason for a price rise?  Other than the free press, why?
6870  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events on: April 18, 2012, 02:43:18 AM
As a clarification I put the "Price is defined as the lowest price paid for the bonds." note on the page. So it is the second definition.

But you did that after there already had been wagers placed, right?

I guess part of the challenge to this is in predicting the outcome of the event, and then there's the additional challenge in predicting what material statements coinjedi will provide after the betting has already commenced.

p.s., Would be great to see the site put up a total of all wagers (agree + disagree) that are open at the present time.  (not exact, but in the range of "More than X00 BTCs in NN open bets".
6871  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: WTF is up with Dwolla?!? They're even bigger dirtballs than I thought!! on: April 18, 2012, 01:30:36 AM
Incidentally, two threads regarding this policy change by Dwolla:

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76866.0;all
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76571.msg853929#msg853929
6872  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How to track real-world bitcoin adaption? on: April 18, 2012, 01:27:46 AM
Just an update where some metrics are available:

Seals With Clubs poker.  I used to remember seeing 25 to 30 users online.  They're now over 50 quite often:
 - https://sealswithclubs.eu

Ogrr, 2,266 members.  They had around 1300 on Feb. 26th  That is about an 8% growth rate per-week.
 - http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2012_02_01_archive.html
 - https://ogrr.com

BitLotto jackpot is over 200 BTC (800 tickets) in under its first three weeks of a month.  That's a record (though there was a big better in the first few days):
 - http://bitlotto.com
 
Mt. Gox can't keep up with all the activity occurring through Dwolla:
 - https://mtgox.zendesk.com/entries/21290798-dwolla-delays
 - https://mtgox.zendesk.com/entries/21269668-outage-23824-dwolla-delays
(it's not Dwolla, its the balance Mt. Gox keeps with them / a cash management estimating problem)

BTCPak selling MoneyPaks at an increasingly faster rate.  $2K in its first week. Total so far well over $25K USD worth and more than 150 transactions.
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64805.msg853621#msg853621

BitInstant - Buy Bitcoins and send through e-mail service! In addition to being able to buy bitcoins using cash deposit at a bank for deposit at an exchange, you can now automatically have that purchase converted to bitcoins and sent via e-mail (thanks to new BTC->e-mail transfer service Coinapult.com )
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76863.0

1209K's betting site, which, like BitLotto, differs from others because the proof is in the blockchain, started seeing growth at 400% PER-DAY this week so the operator shut it down cut the max bet drastically fearing regulatory repercussions.
 - http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/segz0/anyone_want_to_run_my_bitcoin_casino

GLBSE v2 and MPEx exchanges.  You'ld think last week's "IPO" worth $50K USD would have sucked up all the excess bitcoins people wanted to invest.  No sir!   The price on that issue is up 50% from what the shares were going for privately just before the IPO.  And there've been IPOs since and they keep coming!
 - https://glbse.com/asset/view/GIGAMINING
 - https://glbse.com/ipos

tl;dr: Not everything bitcoin-related is turning golden, but there certainly are some rising stars!
6873  Economy / Services / Re: Safe Cold Storage? on: April 18, 2012, 12:07:22 AM
using the paper private key?

Using My Wallet from BlockChain.info, you can import the key and after that use My Wallet's Send Money function to transact.



  - http://www.BlockChain.info/wallet
6874  Economy / Services / Re: Safe Cold Storage? on: April 17, 2012, 11:56:30 PM
off-line transactions can be "injected" into the network/blockchain at bitsend.rowit.co.uk

And also to:
 http://www.blockchain.info/pushtx
6875  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Crowdfunding done right. I wish bitcoin could attract that kind of oomph on: April 17, 2012, 11:29:22 PM

Quote
Unfortunately, Kickstarter declined our project. They didn’t really say why. They just said “Unfortunately, this isn’t the right fit for Kickstarter.” Of course, this isn’t entirely surprising. Kickstarter is a pretty friendly company. And I can’t say I blame them. After quitting my job, I briefly thought of starting up this project on my own, funding it on my own. I got really excited about it for a couple of weeks, but then I realized I am an intensely social person and, besides, I didn’t want to be “that guy.”

But the need, I am convinced, still exists. And so, I give it to you, world. Someone, please, start an anti-social network. I will kick into your seed round.

 - http://www.betabeat.com/2012/04/17/a-call-for-an-anti-social-network/

I'ld like to emphasize:
  Unfortunately, this isn’t the right fit for Kickstarter.

So KickStarter decides what its wants to push to its userbase.  It has the full right to do so, I'm just pointing it out that there are many good ideas that never get their 15 minutes.
6876  Other / Meta / Re: Internal server error after "fixing" broken link. on: April 17, 2012, 11:19:29 PM
Wouldn't a redirect be easier?

  Bitcoin.org != BitcoinTalk.org

(The bad links are http://bitcoin.org/ smf/index.php or http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php  and those need to become http://bitcointalk.org/index.php )

[Update: Ha, here in SMF it automatically translates bitcoin.org/ smf   URLs to  bitcointalk.org/   ]
6877  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Heads-Up: Bank Fraud Alert on: April 17, 2012, 11:18:38 PM
So is this policy in place and active now?   If so would expect a bunch of people who've not already verified w/ Dwolla or have not linked their Facebook to their Dwolla account to be starting new threads complaining that they can't send funds to the exchanges.

But I've not seen that yet.

Was that notice instead a trial balloon?

[Update:  Nope, not a trial balloon.  Shows up like this:



 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76910 ]
6878  Economy / Goods / Re: Who owns GLBSE.bit,I want to buy on: April 17, 2012, 11:03:58 PM
Preparing for a Black Friday?

 - http://www.pokerblackfriday.com/status/
6879  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Just another attempt to sell mobile coins on: April 17, 2012, 10:54:39 PM
Here are two SMS vendors in operation today:

Quote
What countries is the service available in?
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America
- https://blockchain.info/wallet/sms-phone-deposits

And
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Btc-Direct

DialCoin was doing this but stopped temporarily, apparently:
 - http://www.dialcoin.com
6880  Other / Meta / Re: Internal server error after "fixing" broken link. on: April 17, 2012, 10:42:46 PM
I fixed the links on that page.

One down, 520 articles to go.

Well, to be fair there probably are only a hundred or so articles with links to the old domain and path

Someone doing a global search at the db level would be able to identify these articles.   I suppose a search and replace could be done also, but that's an exception to the rule for human-edited wikis.
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