A lot of IPOs releasing in the last couple weeks has been making it very hard to speculate
We're in for a few ho hum IPO's and 6 weeks of doldrums before shit starts hitting the fan. If ever there was a safe time to take a break from bitcoin and go enjoy a beach somewhere, it's now. He-he true but then again bitcoin is always interesting so much can happen in 6 weeks here Although leaving it in a just dice or Coinlenders CD would help for the summer break Convenient earnings when your gone lol. Neither exactly safe: 1. Just-Dice: you literally gambling your money with a 1% edge! A little variance can make for large losses. And then there is always the counter-party risk (though I do trust dooglus personally) 2. Coinlender CD: 25% APR, really seems too good to be true. Pirateat40 redux anyone? Even if he is well intentioned, at those generous rates, a couple wrong bets and he may not have the funds to even pay back the principal. Significant counterparty risk Nothing wrong with a paper wallet in a safe:)
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Friedcat needs to exceed expectations tomorrow to really give this stock any hope of breaking out of this downward trend. All these mining IPOs may just be hype, but with people sitting on a lot of profits, many will be eager to lock some in in any sign that AM may have some real competition.
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So he could not even get a bid which is below the price he paid for them. Clearly, others are not confident they will deliver in time for an ROI or deliver at all. The only one I would buy hardware from at this point is ASICMiner and even they missed their last pre-order delivery.
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Bitslame, You should have accepted by bid when I offered it. With the way Asicminer is tanking, you are not going to find a better one anytime soon. Looks like the beginning of a selling panic in the midst - only news tomorrow that exceeds expectations will offset it. Then again, friedcat has done that many times before, so I would not be surprised. By Thursday this will either be well under 3.5 or back up close to 4.0
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I tried explaining this to him for a very long time..
It won't work. He's a persistent bugger, he's having fun though, so fair enough.
Do you still think Martingale is worse than the equivalent single bet? I thought we had been through that before and that you finally agreed with me. We were going to bet on it, until you realised I was right, no? I agree, but the way Dabs is doing it, he would be better off just doing a one off bet? But where would the fun be in that?
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Slight correction in the works.
Will be more than slight - we will visit 3 before 5 (as I said earlier). There is no support under this stock. Even a little "less than positive" news and this will nosedive. A lot of weak hands here - underwater speculator and those sitting on profits who will panic sell. Under 3, this will be a buying opportunity and that may occur as an intra-day low soon. Keeping my coins on the sidelines to get in during the inevitable bloodbath.
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The worse part, it is like he is not even putting much effort into it. Couldn't he take a few minutes to lift a photo from Linked in? Pretty lazy scammer. Coindesk has lost all journalistic integrity in my book. I tried to leave a comment on the article with a link here and some proof this is a scam and they did not approve the comment. I am starting to wonder if Coindesk it participating in this scam themselves. Seriously, noone even knew about them until coindesk wrote the article which is what gave this blatant scam an air of legitimacy. If they did even 5 minutes of basic research, they would have found all the blaring scam evidence we have. This is below the par of a Junior High School newspaper. I am not sure whether the journalist and editor are Incompetent, Lazy or Dishonest. Those really are the only 3 options or some combination thereof. Pathetic
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It just funny those two worthless coins listed and yet XPM is ignored by them
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What is sad is the investiagtive work in this thread if far better than the crap work Coindesk did.
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Investors ----> J-D Bankroll ----> Dooglus Coinbase Account -----> Dooglus Bank Account -----> Dooglus in Bora-Bora drinking Mai Tais with Deb in a grass hoola skirt
So much easier to follow than that monstrosity pirateat40 put together.
I notice you leave it ambiguous as to which of us is wearing the grass skirt. I saw a bit of talk in the on-site chat today about how Deb and I hadn't been online, and invested had just hit 40k so that must be our "trigger point" and we're doing a runner. In fact our dog was sick and we took her into the vet in town. I checked in to the site several times, refilled the hot wallet twice, spoke in the chat, etc. I'd like to be able to take the occasional day to attend to non-site things without it causing a panic. Maybe in time I'll be able to... I'd hope not to have to announce it here that I'm going to be offline for a few hours. I guess it's a testament to how available we have made ourselves to the site's players and investors that they notice when we take a day away! You are holding over 4 million USD worth of coins. I could see why people might be anxious:)
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I don't understand why you start the bidding so high. I guess if that really the least you would sell them for it makes sense but difficulty skyrocketing. I'd dump these fast if I were you. You will not make even 100 BTC mining from them with how the network hashrate exploding this week.
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Are you kidding, you actually put money in these guys? Couldn't you wait a minute to see if it was legit or not. Coindesk even put poss ponzi in the TITLE. Mate look at the post above you, get your money out now. He is either a shill for this scam or just a fool who does not deserve his bitcoins. More likely the former
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Not my post, but worth quoting:
Alright. I think I have a pretty good idea about what's going on here.
There is only one employee that works for MetaNeural Engineering, LLC. He works from an apartment in Florida, and bought what's called a "Virtual Office" based at the building in Colorado,
8400 East Crescent Pkwy, Suite 600 Greenwood Village, CO 80111
He made some hacks, made an add-on, or downright copied software that was created at WardSystems. Maybe he's a disgruntled employee, or maybe he really did make something novel, whatever. I'm not willing to pay a thousand dollars to find out if his software is legitimate.
He forms the company MetaNeural on Jan 31st, 2013, and put his site together in February, then he decides to branch into a couple dubious Bitcoin businesses.
One is a Bitcoin laundry, the other is "BitEnsure".
Speculation; His original idea was to get a lot of people to use his Bitcoin laundry, and skim some coins off the top. Acting a lot like a fractional reserve bank. He probably uses those coins to make trades and leverage his bets on the market.
Maybe some trades go south, maybe he wants more leverage, or maybe he just gets greedy. So he forms "BitEnsure" to do essentially the same thing his Bitcoin Laundry does. He piles the money together, skims off the top, and makes bets on the market.
He figures, "Hey, my business is an LLC, and my company has no assets. I have nothing to lose, either I make great bets on the market and everyone wins, or I don't and only they lose."
All along the way he puts disingenuous information on his sites about clients he works with, fictional employee's he doesn't have, job listings for jobs that don't exist, and states MetaNeural has experience of "years" when it's only been around for about 6 months. All to garner more trust from the community to get more coins in his betting pot.
Does that sound about right? Mr. WhateverYourNameReallyIs? I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. He could just be trying to mass coins and then cut-and-run, none of this "betting" nonsense.
At the end of the day the bottom line is this;
He's presented a false image of his company (repeatedly), there is only one employee, he's avoiding liability at all costs, he has no boss, partner, or stockholders he's accountable to, and he's hiding his identity.
Do not give Bitcoins to this guy.
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That SEC diagram is a mess and Dooglus is a man who appreciates simplicity. When he does eventually take off with the entire J-D bankroll I expect the diagram to similarly be an elegantly simple to follow roadmap.
First, you will see a bunch of boxes labeled "investors" ranging from 0.1 BTC to 1000s of BTC and it will look like Investors ----> J-D Bankroll (500,001 BTC)
Then, the rest will be an elegant, easy to read railroad track as so: Investors ----> J-D Bankroll ----> Dooglus Coinbase Account -----> Dooglus Bank Account -----> Dooglus in Bora-Bora drinking Mai Tais with Deb in a grass hoola skirt
So much easier to follow than that monstrosity pirateat40 put together.
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This was a good explanation. To simplify it: A single bet with a particular probability of winning has a higher expected value than multiple bets with the same combined probability.
Not true. Someday I will try to write out the expected value of a martingale sequence. Has somebody done this already?
You should do it. I would in general suggest working out whether what you're saying is true before saying it, rather than after. Here: suppose you have 3 BTC, bet 1 BTC at 2x, and if you lose, bet the other 2 BTC at 2x. 2x bets have a 0.495 probability of winning. You win 1 BTC total unless both bets lose. Both bets lose with p=0.505*0.505 = 0.255025, and so you win with p=0.744975 The equivalent single bet would pay out 99/74.4975 = 1.32890365448505x and would return 3.98671096345515 BTC. That's less than the 4 BTC returned by the martingale sequence with the same probability. Your correct that my first statement was wrong. But your simple example is not a martingale sequence. To figure out the EV you need to average over all the possible outcomes. Here is the math for a single bet: Bet - B house edge - e probability of win - p Expected value - EV = (1-e)B, on just-dice EV = 0.99 B Of course for a single bet you either win (1-e)/p or lose B. I believe that for a martingale sequence EV will be less than 0.99 B, where for the martingale case B is the starting bankroll. Thankfully their is a max bet - even if very high it capped at 1% of Bankroll. Or you could see some crazy bastard making a 5000 BTC YOLO roll at 2X, win and really destroy the bank.
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I think it pointless - BTC-e needs a bribe basically;)
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Does anyone know how much pirate is estimated to have stolen, and the dollar value? I thought it was more than 100k BTC, but I may be wrong.
If I remember correctly, somewhere around 500,000 btc. This was when it was trading around $10, so $5,000,000 total. In the SEC statement regarding Pirate, I believe they said he only profited around $170,000. Either he threw most of it away trying to trade on exchanges, or there is still a large majority of it out there hidden by Trendon Shavers. Ok, well if Dooglus is anything, he is a perfectionist. He will not run off until he at least ties pirate for 1st place. (Makes note to self to auto-divest at 499,999 invested).
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while I think the share price may take some more dips around 3.8, I think we are near the bottom of the slump. I believe the jumps in hash rate are related to new hardware coming online, which means new hardware for sale will follow, soon. With increased dividends from hardware sales, share prices will increase, likely hitting 5 btc within a few weeks.
I think there is not a lot of support under the share price since a lot of people sitting on profits they not locked in yet. Also a lot of speculative weak hands. Any negative catalyst and this will down below 3 quickly. The long-term may be up, but I bet this see 3.0 before it sees 5 again. Regardless of your long-term perspective, their will be a better entry point for new coins.
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Over 40,000 in the betting pool now? That is a chunk of change
Dooglus is waiting until 100,000 to run off with it all:) Would that make it the biggest Bitcoin heist in history? Totally. He would make the pirateat40 seem like the little leagues!
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0.51 BTC
Hmm, Dooglus should add a minimum bid increment of 0.1 or it gets ridiculous.
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