My mind is open and I think a lot of us here [lurkers included  ] are trying to learn too, so please continue to share why you believe 0.5% or 1% is too high. I think by now it's clear that the discussion will not converge to a consensus. I'm looking forward to when investors can specify their max bet percentage individually. Maybe the 1% people will end up with the lion's share of the profits over the long run. Maybe they'll go bust, leaving the .25% people the winners. Who knows? (We all know, we just disagree!) I hope that dooglus will build in some kind of statistics so we can gain some insight from other people's experience. (Maybe the equivalent of creating a 1 BTC investment in each tier and reporting the balance once a day. I'd love to be able to load that kind of data into a spreadsheet.) I am still confused about the exact implementation of this "select your own max profit" and how it will work. |
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Again, out of nothing, you call me lier; when I put the site profit to -5k, you called me a cheater when you knew I played by rules. As of the exploiot, I repeat again, you didn't fixed, although it'd be quite simple, you just cannot figure it out.
You only fixed me, most likely by ignoring some results of big winning bets. The result? After you fixed me, the system subsquently fixed other three dolphins within 24 hours, the site's income roared, 1000 BTC in a day. How long did JD take to recover from -2000 to 0 in the July? You experienced that: several weeks.
Here is the summary as I take it: you found an exploit, used it, ran up a big profit, exploit is still there but dooglus sabotages your bets. So wouldn't it be logical to create dozens, if not hundreds of new accounts, keep using the system and bankrupt the site? Dooglus can't know all those accounts are yours. Smaller bets just mean you bankrupt the site at a slower pace, but if you use many accounts you'll achieve your desired goal. Use TOR if you need dozens of different IP addresses to achieve your desired outcome. You'll be very wealthy and get your revenge on JD. What could be better? 1. Creating dozens of accounts won't help me, and I've already done that. You just missed the point. 2. I AM WEALTHY, before I won 11k from JD. 3. There's no REVENGE. I don't hate Doog or JD. I'm still considering whether I should invest JD, since JD now is a very effective whale-hunter. Nothing you say make sense. You seem liked a bored guy with a lot of coins and in need of some attention. |
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Fully agree with CoinHoarder.
The peoples with pay for VPS and mine PrimeCoin it's botnet's or serious miner's? My opinion - they serious miners.
IMO botnet's can't take control of PrimeCoint network until serious miner's with VPS mines PrimeCoin, because diff is to high and computers which controlled by botnet's in 80% cases it's a regular home users computers without much CPU power.
rdebourbon is working on a primecoin miner for the parallella (parallella.org). It is a $99 computer (essentially just cpu and cache on an ARM architecture) that can be infinitely parrallized. I think this may be the ideal primecoin miner by a $/XPM mined basis |
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Will there ever be a max to the investment side?
I don't see any reason why there should be. Unless people are betting a ton of BTC there isn't really a reason to have 1M BTC on the site. Doesn't really matter to me was just curious. As investment rises, the return per BTC invested will drop unless volume increases in concert which history has already shown will not be the case (other than the odd whale attack). |
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OK, so I'm announcing it. At midnight UTC Friday I'll change max profit to 0.5%. (half Kelly).
That's in 25 hours. I'll have the site spam this news to the chat periodically too.
It's done. The max profit is currently 220 BTC per roll, with the bankroll at 44k BTC. Thanks doog! I'm really enjoying the site you've built. Will you still be thanking him when we take a 5000 profit swing down and all these weak hands (which re-invested after a bounce in profits following the nakowa bloodbath) rush for the exits and leave you holding the bag with ever increasing variance? It only a matter of time before their more wild swings and they won't all continue to be upwards. |
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On the other hand: He should be reluctant to elaborate on the exploit since he's part of a competing business and that favors him, but that fact also makes you wonder why he still isn't playing. Reducing the max bet doesn't change strategy or eliminate the exploit ... it just causes it to take more time to bleed the house dry. Regardless if your mad the rules were changed, most people would still be playing if they could basically print money.
I think the reason he's stopped playing is because his luck ran out and he has realised he had nothing more than luck on his side. All this FUD about the site being unfair is just that - FUD. His goal is clearly to discredit Just-Dice with a view to gaining traffic at his own pyramid scheme dice site. If he has a strategy that works when the max bet is 300 BTC then it will also work when the max bet is 75 BTC. You just bet a quarter as much on every bet. Nothing else changed. But he doesn't have a working strategy, he has superstition, too many coins, and a disregard for their worth.So he says he has an exploit that is different than the previous two he told me were "the exploit". So is he lying this time, or was he lying the previous two times? (That's not an exclusive 'or'). I'm not sure what the dynamics here are but I'm pretty sure this is not how most casino operators talk to their whales. Not that this means it's bad. I'm wondering though if you want him to continue playing? Or would you still rather not have his business considering the stress it brings? I think Dooglus is right. This guy spreads lies and tries to discredit J-D and Dooglus. Dooglus is a man of honor while Nakowa is a crieton. I do not know if he has a actual system that works better than hitting random bets. I do know he is dangerous due to his bankroll and his success at breaking the bank is due to psychology. Negative variance for bankroll causes divestments, which causes few investors to shoulder more variance, causes more variance and so forth. You have to admit, the psychology is opposite of what it should be. People divested on the way down and only re-invested after significant profits on the way partially back up. Really, if any strategy, you should invest on a large variance swing down and divest on a large variance swing up. RS: I do not think anything said here has any effect on whether or not Nakowa plays at the site. He is either a compulsive delusional gambler or a man with a system. Either way, he will return to J-D since Dooglus pays out and offers the fairest odds and largest max profits per bet. That is at least until something better comes along. |
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btc > ltc > ftc or mincoin (mnc) > dvc
What about xpm? |
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Seems like 1 through 4.
Either way, I hope he doesn't come back when max bet is back to 230BTC in a few hours.
Are you trying to use reverse psychology? Its too obvious to be true  There is no need, he will eventually play again. Just a matter of when. |
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I should have closed the thread. It was posted back in July with no replies for 10 weeks. I will close it now. Sorry for any confusion.
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Seems like 1 through 4.
Either way, I hope he doesn't come back when max bet is back to 230BTC in a few hours.
English definitely does not seem to be his native language based on his grammar. He will come back when he seems someone else win big and then think he can do better. I actually am concerned with investment way up and the max bet approaching 250, he can cause a lot of damage with variance on his side again. |
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Either Nakowa is:
1. Trolling
2. Playing dumb
3. Truly dumb
4. There is a language barrier
I honestly do not know which one it is
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As a JD Investor, lowering the max profit decreases variance. For instance betting your life savings with 51% is stupid. Betting your life savings in 100,000,000 bets, with a 1% edge, will put you ahead by a large amount, with little variance, in total gain.
You keep returning to this variance thing. What you call variance other people call luck. There is no such thing as variance, just the house edge and a nice bell shape called normal distribution. Betting your life savings over 100,000,000 bets and betting it all on a single bet carries the exact same risk and reward. You risk less by wagering less on each bet, but if you sum up all those little "risks" across all those millions of bets you end up with the same as just making one single, large bet. In your terms, placing many small bets means you have to be lucky and win 50,000,000 times. Placing a single bet means you only have to be lucky once. -Michael That is wrong on so many levels. VARIANCE by having on massive bet can even cause rare odds to occur. By making it many small bets, it is more likely to follow the predicted distribution Eg. let's say house had an edge of 90%. In one big bet, there is a 10% to lose it all (not that unlikely). If you divided it up into 100 million bets, it will come pretty damn clost to the predicted profit. |
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Nakowa, you have proven even a complete idiot can be a good gambler. You are like one of those idiot savants who cannot brush their own teeth but can count cards through a 8 deck shuffle.
Mechs, you amaze me. There is no "good" dice gambler, the dice is completely random. The dice is not black jack, poker or sports betting. Nakowa, you did not answer my question: what should Dooglus do to "unfix" you, so you can keep exploiting this yet unfixed flaw in J-D? the fool has balls of steal and somehow accumulated a huge bankroll. variance works in his favor since when he gets on a win streak with huge max profit, it causes a run in the bank. My guess is it will happen again and soon. |
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Has anyone else noticed since we gone to 0.25% variance is way down and profits way up?
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Crazy bets like that are like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. |
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Nakowa: just use a third party tool to check your rolls, they will completely match what you had during your last sessions - the site is PROVABLY FAIR, meaning that you can check for yourself that there was no cheating, and that's a fact. The lag, if it existed at all, had absolutely no effect on the dice numbers. This is non debatable, Dooglus already proved himself uploading a screenshot, you can check by yourself using a third party tool - end of the story.
If you think the problem here was the max profit %, no problem - in a while you will be able to prove to us how your strategy beats the house if the max profit is taken to 0.5%.
It's suspecious about lagging, not "provably fair". With the same algorithm, the game could simply ignore the previous winning result, and place another bet (win or lose, doesn't matter, equivalent to raise the house edge two folds higher), and give the player a tremendous hit, especially when betsize is large. Don't know whether I've made myself clear. Nakowa, you have proven even a complete idiot can be a good gambler. You are like one of those idiot savants who cannot brush their own teeth but can count cards through a 8 deck shuffle. |
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Looking at it, my guess is yes even though it structured differently than some J-D and J-D like dice games. Ultimately, the decision would be up to Dooglus of course. |
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EDIT 2: however mechs, this is an interesting discussion about bitcoins current main uses. Which are gambling and drugs at the moment. We do need the legitimate uses to eventually out pace the other stuff for people to take bitcoin seriously.
I think it will catch on bigtime with porn websites soon. Anonymity and fast payments ideal there. And it good consumer protections since noone wants a sketchy porn site to have their cc info. |
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Unique coins wagered is far far smaller than the wagered amount shown. I had a few accounts at one point wagered almost 5,000 bitcoin and I have nowhere near that amount.
I would estimate that 95% of the total wagered is reused coins.
Perhaps 100,000 unique coins have gone through the site, and that is an extremely optimistic estimate.
Atleast 170,000 have gone through the site judging by the transactions through the cold wallet http://blockchain.info/address/14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86Is that the investment address? Anyway you can still bodge those numbers on blockchain. I have an address somewhere with over 10,000 bitcoin received. Again I have no where near that amount. If you withdraw to block chain and deposit back to Just-Dice again then it will add total received to that number. So I am probably quite close considering the total amount must be lower than the amount reported on that address. EDIT: also look at one of S.Dice addresses http://blockchain.info/address/1dice8EMZmqKvrGE4Qc9bUFf9PX3xaYDp I doubt a million unique bitcoins have run throught that one. To determine actual unique amount of coins wagered you would have to do full taint analysis on every transaction. And even then that can never be 100% accurate. It the cold wallet = investment + balances not invested. There probably another 1000 BTC between the online wallet and hot wallet |
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Unique coins wagered is far far smaller than the wagered amount shown. I had a few accounts at one point wagered almost 5,000 bitcoin and I have nowhere near that amount.
I would estimate that 95% of the total wagered is reused coins.
Perhaps 100,000 unique coins have gone through the site, and that is an extremely optimistic estimate.
Atleast 170,000 have gone through the site judging by the transactions through the cold wallet http://blockchain.info/address/14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86 |
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