Its still pretty buggy, and not yet completely finished (still need to implement saving the settings for the auto invest divest and a few other small things) but the main logic is done. It has not been thoroughly tested, as it takes a lot of time and i would like work closely with the OP on testing etc. simply click the Auto Invest/Divest settings button (top right) to go to those settings ans set them to what you need. The original code for the bot is already open source, but i have not yet commit this version yet, i will do so after bounty has been given out (to me or whomever gets it) Download DiceBot at: http://seuntjie.com/Downloads/DiceBot-AID.zipImplemented features as requested: works on win x64 standalone exe, should work on wine all in one package, just run the exe, no additional knowledge needed. no browser needed auto logon implemented no whale alarm yet, but will implement I closed his bounty a long time ago when I had no takes. I did get a python bot designed though it had not been of much use due to all he frequent server resets of J-D due to DDOS issues. By the way, noone would run a standalone executable without the source. |
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Maybe the whore wasn't paid. Depends. Back then, I could probably get the service for free. The payment was you would live to see another sunrise.
Prostition is said to be the world's oldest profession. Kings and tyrants and emperors are not professions. Entrepreneurs and merchants do not practice a profession.
And thieves and bandits are strictly speaking not a "profession".
The first prostitute was probably forced into it without pay. The next one decided she would charge for it.
If prostitution is simply defined as providing sex in exchange for an item of value, how is it different from marriage and half of all other relationships out there? |
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There's still other casino's with 1% edge also. I'm not sure what their max bet is though.
20 BTC is the max of the other 1%ers |
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I'll keep to my word. If you worried, we can escrow the bets.
Congrats, mechs - wager paid this morning Someone should def be giving Kibbles a +1 trust.. In the bitcoin world, this is def worth a trust. That was the first thing I did |
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I would say adjusting max profit up to 0.5% is ok to do anytime when Nak isn't playing or waiting on a deposit to arrrive in the middle of a session as it only really affects him anyway, so don't worry about giving too much notice.
I would probably leave it at 0.25% though as it seems to be doing quite well and with investment going back up the max bet will soon be 100btc. Don't feel pressured into raising it back up a bit if it proves that 0.25% is working well.
It does seem that Nakowa's "strategy" less effective at the lower 0.25% max profit, variance certainly is. |
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Yup, since doog seems persistent to keep the max bet lower, I'd like to also request for at least 0.5% max bet for the time being.
While I work on the change, I am happy to put the max profit back up to 0.5%. Half Kelly seems like a reasonable compromise. How do I do this in a way that doesn't piss anyone off? Changes without notice are "out of order". Where do I announce it? I don't have any way of contacting most of the investors. Do I just post here "max profit will be adjusted to 0.5% of bankroll at (midnight tonight, UTC)" and leave it at that? How much notice does it need? That's only 2 hours away, and so probably not long enough. What about "midnight pacific"? That's 9 hours away. Thoughts? How much notice do people need? And where's a good place to put such annoucements? Announce it here, in the blog and in the FAQ and don't do it until Sunday UTC. That gives a few days for investors to divest if they wish. |
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(6) Dooglus, you're doing a fantastic job. Most of us investors know this, even if we don't always show it. Maybe some of us didn't completely agree with your sudden maxbet reduction yesterday, but seriously, j-d is the first gambling site that I feel comfortable with both as an (occasional) gambler and as an investor. Keep that in mind please, whenever you start doubting your project.
+100 to this Also I would rather raising the max bet to 0.5% as a compromise between investors rather than rush in this new complicated "choose your own risk option" until it fully tested for no us intended consequences. |
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It isn't that simple. If it's the most profitable but you can spend 6 months in the red because of the high variance of the rare big bets, it loses one of its most attractive features, liquidity. And no, it isn't necessarily "being scared".
And remember it not a fixed bankroll. When whales play, many players divest increasing variance of those remaining. When bankroll goes down a lot, many new people reinvest and dilute the share of bankroll and therefore ROI of those that stayed invested. The 1% Kelly assumes a fixed bankroll for the house. |
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It would have been a total of 20k loss between yesterday and today, with the old max bet (assuming he would have followed the same pattern). Site would have been up 15000.
That is so inaccurate a statement it borders on absurd. Just because the max profit would have been 4x higher (well not really, many more would divest) does not mean he would have followed the identical betting pattern x 4. He typically has an amount up or down he stops at. I personally would be fine with 0.5%, some like .25 and some want 1% or higher. I think Doog's idea may be a good one to let each player choose their own max profit and this risk level, though I am worried it will have un intended consequences. For example, individual variance for some investors will go off the charts and you will have bots which keep the investor highly leveraged for smaller bets and when large bets detected, knocks down the leverage to being under leveraged leading to big swings in max profit and those investors not using such a bot more exposed than they intended when everyone else abruptly lowers their max profit % with bots or when online, while they are offline. |
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Gambling is ten thousand years old. Prostitution is the world's oldest profession. People have been paying for both using whatever currency existed at that time. It starts there. Later on, they buy food with shells or rocks.
If prostitution was the world oldest profession , how did the first whore get paid if everybody else was unemployed? With shells and stones stupid. |
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I've just checked JD chat logs, and I see that Dooglus acknowledged math was on our side, but "we couldn't count on Nakowa coming back after winning".
When somebody pointed out that gamblers always come back, Dooglus said that "Nakowa already walked away with 4k in August".
Wow. Just wow.
First, is obvious that Nakowa didn't "walk": he just stopped for a few weeks and CAME BACK. For Christ sake, he was playing yesterday, and you say" he walked in August"? Doog, as a casino operator you should know how gamblers minds work. They might stop for some weeks after a big win, but the more they win the more they will think their strategy is unbeatable. Nakowa will come back to "prove his points", until variance hits him hard, and at that point he will lose everything very fast because he thinks he can "spot patterns", and he won't be able to accept he might lose.
As a poker player I've seen that story over and over and over.
IMO a very poor management decision was made based on irrational fears and highly unlikely scenarios, I'd dare to say totally negligible scenarios from a statistical point of view. And we all know our business is based on probability, right?
The hard cold facts:
We have pissed off and treated badly our best customer ever
Investors who did not divest are left holding huge losses that won't be covered for months
If dumb investors do not understand that a casino is NOT a "stable" investment, you just add a big disclaimer explaining what the word "variance" means. You do not screw up with your best customer who, additionally, is giving a HUGE promo to your site, condemning most of your investor to remain holding a bag indefinitely.
The math works if you have a fixed house pool and the player will always keep playing until house is ruined. however, no ether of those are true. The more the whale wins, the more that was being divested leading to a run in the bankroll. Also, Nakowa is not a computer simulation which will go on forever. Once the house through a mixture of bad luck and fear divestments went down low enough, it would not be worth it for Nakowa to keep playing. |
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(...) he announced the 2nd gen would be 55/45 (...)
I don't remember he announced that, and I can't find any record of him saying this in his history. Could you link me to that announcement? Of course. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2246754#msg2246754I actually fucked up - he said "65/55" not "55/45". My mistake - all 3 are ITRS nodes or half nodes. If it does turn out to be 65/55 while the competition will have 28nm tech going out around the same time, well then we will be going back to sub-1 values. I really hope that is not the case. |
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I bought a few more shares at <2.
The divs alone are worth it at this low price.
Only if the dividends are maintained. I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation. It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized. You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now. It will see 1.2 BTC before 3.2 BTC. I'll quote it. Gentlemans wager of 1 BTC? You pick the exchange. I am more like 0.5 BTC sure;) BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares. I win if any trades for 1.2 BTC before 3.2 BTCYou win if vice-versa deall? Sounds good! No short selling on your part. I'll keep to my word. If you worried, we can escrow the bets. Congrats, mechs - wager paid this morning kibbles is a man of his word and made good on his wager. |
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A uniformly distributed random number is still a random number, Dabs. You're saying here that the results aren't random because they're random?  I'm challenged because I don't know how to explain it. I'm trying to say that while the pattern fits and looks random, it is predictably random. Please investigate this more and claim a few millions when you find a flaw in SHA256. Maybe nakowa is the NSA and broke SHA |
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Using dice sites with bitcoins wagered stats is misleading.
Because eventually, the bitcoins wagered will exceed the maximum amount of bitcoins in existence.
Wagered actually means what was bet, and the coins are reusable. If I bet and win, and I bet again, it's the same coins being bet. If I bet and lose, and I bet again, then maybe that is more accurate.
But people do not lose all the time. They lose depending on the percentage chance to win.
Also, JD is off-chain, meaning all action is internal. You don't see any action on the blockchain unlike SD where everything is in the blockchain. But people don't like that either because it's polluting or bloating or spam.
You only see deposits and withdrawals, and since it uses bitcoind which generates new addresses all the time, we can miss out on much of the transactions.
The only thing we can see for sure are the JD cold storage and online storage and part of the hot wallet.
I am not sure just because the transactions occur off-block chain that it makes them any less significant. True you do not see all the dust spam like with on-block transactions by entities such as SatoshiDice, but the coins transfer you see in and out are quite large my quantity. It seems that online gambling has been a hit for bitcoin, but this may not be a good thing due to bad publicity for policy makers. I suspect the psuedoanonymity also will work out well for porn sites who will start adopting it with time. Noone wants that foot-fetish site to show up on the family credit card statement. But I suppose, porn and gsmbling and the vices are always the innovators. I remember pay-per-view and DVDs got big with porn well before mainstream media. |
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This topic is unfortunately very misleading. If I bet 10 Bitcoins 100 times at 99% win odds, that would be 1,000 Bitcoins wagered. The amount of Bitcoins wagered is a fine way to compare casinos, but using it as a stat compared to the rest of the economy is 100% wrong. 17% of Bitcoins wagered through Just-Dice in 20 Months is not accurate.
It was in 2 months. |
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Just for that, I am going to raise the house edge to 10% with my mind-control power over Doog
Considering that you claim to be the largest investor, what you say to Dooglus unfortunately has an effect on his decisions. You manipulated him because you know he's stressed out over the last few days and you fucked over the other investors while doing it. 13,000BTC will never be recovered because of you. All I know is last time OP was updated I was 5th largest - and I know 3 above me dropped out including Dooglus. I have no idea where I am in the pecking order now. Regardless, with a lot invested and a lot lost, I would have no motivation to do anything to reduce site profitability. Also, I did not tell Doog to drop the max bet - I suggested increasing the house edge on a sliding scale for bets over 50 BTC. However, it was difficult to implement quicker, so he took this action instead as a stopgap. There is way to much focus here on one player who is a attention whore, liar and drama queen - albeit with a huge bankroll, high risk appetite, extreme luck and disciplined gambling style. |
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I want to have a no-limit casino to invest , like you can bet all the investment , which was like 30k or something , be able to bet 30k than. Thats more fun , casinos should take some courage to run , even if its not your money to run , even better if its like that.
Could not agree more. The fearful investors are messing this up for everyone. If there's no/little chance for the house to lose, then there's little/no chance for the players to win, and the whole thing loses its luster. If you don't like a provably fair game with a 1% edge and a current max profit per bet of 80 BTC, then gambling is not for you. It waaay better odds than vegas and any other bitcoin gambling site atm. mechs, you are being destroyed with logic and reason by almost everyone in this topic and the https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=301428 poll topic. All the other investors were willing to risk 30,000BTC to try and recover nakowa's losses because they understood math and were willing to take the risk. You are the one who should have divested if you didn't like the variance. Instead you pleaded with dooglus to totally fuck those 30,000BTC investors. You're a greedy and selfish. Because of you, the casino has lost its best customer. Because of you, other investors won't ever recover their losses. Nice work. Just for that, I am going to raise the house edge to 10% with my mind-control power over Doog |
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In a totally perfect world I agree that the Kelly criterion should be followed. However, there are two things that need to be taken into consideration in this situation.
-The possibility of some flaw in the RNG.
-The possibility of Nakowa cheating.
[snip]
Those are not the only reasons. Kelly criterion is about maximizing growth. Individuals (investors) however might also have a (differing) view on risk management, i.e. they are willing to accept less-than-optimal growth in trade for a lower chance to lose everything/a lot. And another point: simply calculating the optimal value according to Kelly assumes a static system which j-d is certainly not: assume bankroll size of a whale stays the same, but as a result of normal variance, the bank is down substantially and investors get scared and start divesting. While the whale wouldn't have been able to break the bank before, he might be able to do so now. Both are valid reasons to stay below the Kelly value. The max profit is a rolling calculation against the size of the bankroll. People divesting means lower limit. But that limit only applies to a single bet, not the cumulative earnings of a whale. EDIT: to clarify, as the whale keeps playing, then bankroll goes down, and so does maxbet. the limit of that sequence is still a broken bank  The prior earnings of any player occur independent of future earnings. I guess you're saying something like if the whale has a larger roll than the house, he can absorb enough losses to eventually bankrupt the house, but while there is always a non-zero probability of this happening regardless of house or whale roll size, I think that the odds are substantially against it as a result of the house edge. Long run, whale should always bankrupt eventually unless he can quit while he's ahead. With the lower limit today he shipped back BTC3k, there is certainly a risk of this happening. And to think that if we hadn't lowered the limit, he would have shipped back 12k  . You assume he would make all the same bets except at 4X the amount. He would have likely made different bets and would have stopped himself before reaching 12k in a single day. |
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Such volume makes Just-Dice a great fee mixing service (just don't gamble your coins away)
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