Anyone who ONLY considers bitcoin in terms of something that you buy or you sell, either does not understand bitcoin, or they are trying to frame bitcoin in terms of trading and/or dollar values.

Holding bitcoin is a way to use it.. .since holding bitcoin allows for the transition of bitcoin through time - and speaking of transitions, bitcoin can be moved around in a variety of ways that may well not be considered to be buying or selling - including when we might move some of them from ourselves and to our selves.. and sure those self to self transaction may not have significant meaning,

....which causes me also to consider that changing the ways that bitcoin are held could also allow bitcoin to be used as collateral or to change the way in which it is owned (shared custody) - which also might not exactly be considered as a transaction that transfers the value.. even though it might transition the value from one kind of status to another kind of status, which is an additionally interesting angle to apply programable money... and the various kinds of autonomy that come from holding it yourself versus having someone else hold it for you versus some other ways to share the holding power... I am not going to even claim to know all of the options and powers of bitcoin, but they do not seem to boil down to merely buying or selling of it.

You are probably referring to one or the other of the below two related threads, which should largely help you to figure out for yourself that the mere fact that something is alleged (dramatized and/or whined about) does not cause it to have merit.....

....but hey, whatever, you are free to believe whatever you like.

Request: Disable merits in the Wall Observer thread

Request: Disable JayJuanGee in the Wall Observer thread

I would say that it is more accurate to say 8 years ago, since in March 2016, BTC prices were largely in the lower $400s.... $420-ish for quite a bit of time, which would be 155x of a price appreciation.

We did pass through the $600s fairly quickly in late 2016.. (which would be 7.5 years ago) but we had to get over the Bitfinex hack situation from August 2016.. and then after crossing the ATH early 2017, we did have a brief revisit of the mid $800s in about late Febuary/early March. .and we did not revisit (ever) sub $1,500 after March 2017..

So yeah, 5 years ago, we were around the time of breaking out of the $4,200 and going to $13,880 fairly quickly (over a 3 month period).. Who can forget the April 1, 2019 breakout?.. so yeah that would ONLY be a 17x to our current price, if we consider from $3,800 for our late March 2019 timeframe, and I recall one of the members (maybe Jshaw) saying that we would never see sub $3,900 again.. and I called him crazy, yet he ended up being correct - absent that brief revisit and lapse of March 12, 2020.. in which we ONLY briefly touched upon $3,850. .. but yeah, sub $6k really was not much of a thing after around May 2019. and maybe we spent less than 30 days in total below $6k after May of 2019.....  since even our correction in late 2019 did not bring us below $6k, until the March 2020 crashening event that took out our good buddy mindrust.. and perhaps some similarly situated guys who were more private in their getting shooken from their coins..

The good ole days... back when crashenings were meaningful.

I will explain that if you try to figure out some short term explanation for BTC price movements, you are wasting your time.

You must get a grip on yourself robin.


Prepare your lil selfie for either BTC price direction or neither, all at the same time, and in terms of that preparation, have a plan for what you are going to do if any of the directions play out at any given time.

Or follow additionally what the dude said.


No one can explain you the MO of BTC's price movement, and if they say that they can, then they are lying.

Generally speaking over a long enough period of time, BTC prices tend to go up.  It is not guaranteed, but that is how it has historically played out and it is likely to continue to play out.

In other words, BTC's investment thesis is not getting any weaker with the passage of time.

I am o.k. with either 8pt or 9pt.

Maybe use 8pt if you want to put 6 or 7 currencies in one table

and then maybe use 9pt if you want to have either one table or two tables of 5 currencies.

I am not really very attached to either idea since you already have been doing quite a bit of work to make these tables really presentable and comprehensive beyond what I was thinking that you would have been willing to do.. .. which surely I would rather send a donation to you directly rather than to your favorite alternative location.. even if you don't want to share your bitcoin address publicly.. which it could be by PM.. but you could even establish a lightning address or even Aqua wallet gives several possibilities in the way that you might want to hold any donation that you might receive.

Those are pretty whimpy predictions.  The prediction starts with today's spot price and then multiplies by 5% each year, and we already know that BTC's 200-WMA moves up more than 20% per year (and 20% was its worst level of increase ever), so even conservative measures of how the  200-WMA moves up, beat that whimpy-assed prediction.

My current FU status chart shows the bottom as $136.5k with 14.66 BTC as fuck you status for mid 2030.. with

5/31/30      $136,455   14.65688302

And my anticipated update shows

5/31/30      $185,233      10.79718532

And, the above are bottom prices... so yeah, it is possible that the 200-WMA starts to underperform 20% per year, but I surely have my doubts... and a bare minimum of 20% per year would put you at similar numbers for the 200-WMA as you are showing with:

March 2024   $32,250

March 2025   $38,700

March 2026   $46,440

March 2027   $55,728

March 2028   $66,874

March 2029   $80,248

March 2030   $96,298

I surely have my doubts about that level of whimpiness, even though it is possible to happen that way, it seems like a less likely scenario.

In regards to your question, most people employ DCA because it is either 1) their only choice because they do not have lump sum amounts available to them, or 2) they move funds from one area to another with DCA because it is the most feasible way to do it... so they might in essence have a lump sum and then they just divide it up into several payments over several months and might even drag out their establishing their full BTC position for 6 months to a year or longer.

Lump sum investing can be considered as a way of front loading your investment, and I am a pretty big fan of attempting to front load your investment, yet at the same time, if you have already been DCAing in BTC for over year a and a half at around $100 per week (so lets say you got around $8k invested) - if we go by your forum registration date.. but you did not front load until now, then you seem to be FOMOing instead of front loading.. ...

but hey, whatever, better late than never, and so under this scenario, you have been holding back and so now after a year and a half of DCAing, you are having regrets that you did not DCA more aggressively, and you had been holding back, and so now you have $8k extra built up that you were waiting for the right time, and the right time did not come.. so therefore, you want to just Yolo it all in.. which maybe does not sound very rational.. but if you are regretting that you did not invest as much, then maybe you have to divide it in half and put $4k in and save the other $4k for buying on dips and just continue to DCA with your $100 per week.    Now in regards to my numbers, you can adjust them however you like to your own actual scenario...

I am just throwing out a possible scenario that shows you had already been investing, which maybe you spent 9 months sitting around and then the last 9 months you started to take bitcoin seriously and realized that you had not been investing as aggressively as you should, so when you invest whatever you have, you will largely be FOMOing in.

Sounds retarded.

We are in a bitcoin thread.

Fuck shitcoins, and get on topic.


It is dumb to trade bitcoin.

Bitcoin is amongst the best of investments if NOT the best of investments in the seeming early stages of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind, and you want to try to trade it?


You are planning to sell all your coins between $100k and $150k?  Good luck with that.  Likely, you are going to need it.

It could be that we are quibbling about semantics, and I personally would suggest that the bare minimum to qualify as an investor in bitcoin is to have at minimum a 4 year timeline to stay in, and perhaps someone 4-6 years might be considered a short term investor.. but yeah, perhaps that is quibbling a bit.. yet my main point of contention is that when guys try to suggest that they are investing if they have less than a 4-year time horizon, and in regards to bitcoin, I would call those guys traders rather than investors if they go into bitcoin with a plan to play this cycle or to get in and out in less than 4 years.

Sure, some of those guys might come into bitcoin and plan to get in and out, and then they might end up changing their mind and end up staying longer  than their original intention, so sometimes it can be difficult to pigeon-hole people too much in terms of what they might be intending to do from the start, to the extent that they even have a plan.. because some people might not have very much of a plan, which might be o.k. too.. especially if the person is DCA'ing, and he might get in and decide that he is going to DCA for 6 months to a year and then reconsider how it is going at various points along the way,

...and I suppose that there is nothing really wrong with that, especially since one of my own pieces of advice is for people to get the fuck started, and to figure out the details as they go, since there is some importance in getting started, even if it might ONLY be $10 per week... and then there is potential for some better abilities to pay attention and to learn when someone has some sort of a stake in bitcoin rather than having no coins and just pondering over the theories about entry points and all that baloney.   The entry point is get the fuck started, and figure out the details as you are going.. while you are doing your $10 per week or whatever amount is chosen as a starting point.


Even though technically, you are likely correct, but that kind of a distinction seems too superficial.


Surely, I agree with you about this, and we know that bitcoin's history is littered with previous BTC HODLers who sold too much too early, and they are later kicking themselves for their short-sightedness, and this kind of history is going to continue to repeat itself.. People who think that they are so smart because they sell their whole stash of 50 BTC that they bought for $250 each in 2015 (and so they invested $12,500 into bitcoin) at $1k in early 2017, and brag because they got $50k for their investment and they made 4x profits... so they are so smart because they are walking away with $37,500 in pure profits.

And, after the fact we know that there are so many better ways they could have played that quantity of BTC, including selling in increments, and ending up being able to sell all the way up to $20k.. and still holding more than half their stash. .instead of selling it.. and yeah maybe they could have bought back and maybe they would have never ended up with 50 BTC again, but now if they are wanting to use their $37,500 in profits, they are only going to get right around 0.5 BTC or perhaps 0.6BTC, if they catch a dip...and 2015 is not even that long ago..

We could come up with some more similar examples using the 2018 to 2021 period to show similar kinds of mistakes of selling too much too early, even though 2017 was a pretty brutal year for the non-believers who sold way too much too early... especially anyone selling below $4,000... and even though they might have had some opportunities in 2018, and 2020 to buy back below $4k, it was not really a great selling point.

Each cycle has its own variations, so none of us really know anything for sure, and so we can ONLY attempt to prepare ourselves within the resources that we have available..

You  are pretty new to the forum, Bravut.. so you may well be really early in terms of your own bitcoin accumulation - especially if we are to use your forum registration date as a reference point.

Like right around 2 hours after the latest FeeBuddy post, I submitted a couple of transactions for right around 26 sats per vbyte, and so as I type this post, it has been about 5 hours.

When I set the rate, I was having a bit of a dilemma, since I could see that the fees were rising, and surely I would not have minded to do 16 or 18 sats per vbyte, but then I thought that I don't want to get too greedy.. so it would be better to try to get it to go through in a day or two.. and not to get stuck too long.. I think that my odds are pretty good that it will be processed in the next 8 hours, but you never know... the last several blocks had been processing 44 sat per vbyte and the lowest ones in the last hour or two were 33 sats per vbyte and even got as low as 28 sats per vbyte.. .so looking pretty positive to  go through, and perhaps we will get back below 18 sats per vbyte in the next 8 hours.

https://mempool.space/mempool-block/0

Edit: The transactions (two of them) went through about 2-3 blocks after this initially was posted.

What does "S tier" and "A tier" stand for? 

It is probably up to you if you want to do an additional table.  An additional table would be more information that we would be able to browse through, even though we probably would be mostly interested in the "S tier"... (whatever that means?), but from time to time, there might be some interesting data in the "A tier" (whatever that means?)


I don't mind it.  I looked at it on my computer and on my phone, and I usually focus on the USD.. but surely it is nice to be able to glance at what it is happening with some of the other currencies... .

I did not really notice any size difference, but I can see that the spaces between columns is a bit smaller.

If you think about it, the font is already quite a bit bigger than the normal text on the forum, so you probably could reduce the font in order to have a bit better spacing between columns and maybe bring the font to the same size as the regular forum text.. . .of course, the bold already makes the bolded ones BIGger than the non-bolded ones.

You need to be careful with some of the processed products, including milk, that is why I mentioned raw milk as being good... and for sure Soya is a processed product, and I am not going to claim to be any kind of expert regarding the extent to which it has benefits..

One of the benefits of real raw milk is that it has natural fat in it, when it is processed homogenized and pasteurized there can be problems with that process.. to take something that is alive and good for you and kill some of its nutrients and to make it so that it lasts longer, but that does not necessarily mean that it is still good for you in terms of inflammation that it can cause.. and yeah some people are more or less tolerant than others... it can be difficult to get raw milk, which is a kind of crime in itself.. .one of the sad things of modern living in terms of some of the foods being overly processed and/or dumbed down in various ways.... and there could be some good milk substitutes, but I am not sure if coconut milk is one of them.. .. and we likely would need to consider the matter in terms of how natural is the process of extraction and/or conversion into milk.. and what other ingredients might be contained in the product, and you might tolerate some of those a lot or think that they are good for you, but it is not always clear about some of the product... or even if they are labelled properly, including some of the GMO bullshit that is not even always labelled or required to be labelled.


I do think that diet and sleep are more important than exercise when it comes to losing weight, yet surely there can be a lot of difficulties to reduce the weight after it had already been put on, and as we get older, we do have troubles to keep our muscle mass.. so surely it is going to be helpful if you are using your muscles in ways that they had not been previously used, because that will contribute to your building muscles and/or toning your muscles and probably facilitate your body to use the nutrients from food more efficiently.. since muscle processes nutrients better than fat.. fat does not process nutrients it just sits there and waits for your muscles to need to use it up.

Even with me, I can feel more muscle definition in recent times, but my body fat has gone up a lot in the past several years, and so it takes a certain amount of activity to stop from losing some of the muscle mass, which I have some of my own limitations in terms of what kinds of things that I am able to do, that I used to be able to do, and several of those used to be able to do activities, I won't be able to get back to being able to do, but I can still work towards improvements in terms of some of the kinds of activities (or the level of exertion) that I can currently do, which includes getting back some muscle definition and energy that seems to have been helped from the 5 times a day pushups...

Right now, day 43 for me with 5,940 pushups, so far.. two more sets for today, still.


Just because it might be a temptation for you, and you consider that it might be a temptation for others to dump (or to sell) here, I get the sense that you might not understand where we are at.

We are not at the top of a cycle, and so a lot of newbies (and even no coiners who are looking at BTC prices) get confused and they think that being at new ATHs in BTC is like being at the top of a cycle, but that is not very likely to be true, especially if you consider the context of both how we got here and what is going on in the space, and also if you might have noticed that when BTC prices pass through previous  ATHs (think about passing through $1,163 in early 2017, and think about passing through $19,666 in late 2020), there tends to not be very much resistance at the previous ATH points, and so even though you are feeling like there is resistance here or there might be resistance here or we are hanging around in these price areas ($69k-ish) for too long, you are sounding mostly like a weak hand... and hey, you can do what you like... or maybe if you sell a bit of your stash you will feel better because right now, the fact of the matter is that your nervousness is showing that you might be: 1) over exposed to bitcoin in light of your own finances or 2) lacking in conviction in terms of your knowledge of bitcoin and/or your own psychology - which may relate back to your finances.  You will may well end up feeling a bit better if you sell some of your BTC, until you stop feeling better after the price continues to go up and you are no longer able to buy back the BTC that yo sold at these here price levels, and you might question why you did not buy more BTC around here, rather than selling...and yeah of course, none of us know, the price can go in either direction.


What is the rush?  If you haven't overinvested then it should not matter.  You can buy some more if the price drops further or just hold, but probably you are looking for a place to sell.. which truly does not seem to be any kind of sign of anyone with any level of conviction.. and yeah.. $100k is also likely another blip on the radar.. and people are making it out as if it is some kind of BIG deal, when it is not.. $100k is just another bump along the road... .. . and in the end.. no one really knows, and so you are responsible for your own level of conviction, and your own level of figuring out how much BTC to have, whether to keep buying and or at what point to sell, if at all..


It is always going to go up and down, and we might even have some 20% to 30% corrections, and maybe also down the road people think that we we will get 50% corrections.

Sure any of that can happen right here or later... Sure, 20% to 30% is easier to achieve than 50% or more, but any of that is possible, and so you should have a bit of a plan to be able to deal with it, and if you need to sell some, then sell some. . but some people get screwed up in terms of thinking that it is all or nothing.

You have ONLY been registered on the forum for less than 1.5 years and if you started accumulating bitcoin since the time of your forum registration, then you have been spoiled because the BTC price has been mostly going up since you registered on the forum, so you may well could have accumulated a lot of BTC and be in a position to sell some...

Yet, I personally doubt that any newbie to bitcoin could easily establish a solid position in bitcoin in only a year, or even less than a whole cycle.. so personally, it seems better to continue to accumulate BTC, but hey, you might have come into bitcoin at a kind of weird time in which you have mostly ONLY experienced UP, so you have developed some bad expectations, including temptations to either stop buying or to sell and to take profits.. and you have to figure out some kind of plan for yourself how to deal with the situation and to assess if you have enough bitcoin or not.. if you don't have enough bitcoin, then you are not even in a position to be selling, so then you should just continue to buy, but to me it sounds like you are not even doing that.. so hey you are the one who has to figure out how to deal with making sure that you have enough BTC.. and probably stop thinking narrowly in terms of some short term profits that you might be able to make by selling and buying back cheaper and blah blah blah blah. that may or may not end up working out as you had expected.


Traders are fucking around with short term price moves and likely to get fucked in times like these when they are likely selling too much too soon.. and investors do not sell until they have already reached a decent status, that is most likely going to be over at  least a whole cycle and maybe even at least a couple of cycles, and investors may only sell parts of their holdings rather than all of it... but hey, there can be quite a few variants of both traders and investors.

There used to be some exchanges that has a "troll box" in which members could live chat, such as BTC-e, and so I mostly was labelling the WO thread as a "troll box" in that kind of a sentiment... just to say the thread could be considered as a place where almost anything goes, except active members in that thread do not tend to be very tolerant of pumping shitcoins in that thread, but if you participate in the thread for a while, there will be deviations into topics (that are not really directly related to bitcoin price tracking) that might go on for days and days or even weeks or months..

I personally tend to prefer to stay mostly on topic of the thread, but I am not innocent of my own sometimes deviations from the thread topic.. and maybe even exaggerating a bit more than necessary.. especially in that thread.... and yeah, sometimes current events might ONLY be tangentially related to bitcoin price movements, yet they can also sometimes end up having some relation to bitcoin's price movements, since nearly everything is likely somehow related to bitcoin in one way or another... even as a bit of a stretch, shitcoins.. hahahahahaha


I was going to say something.. but then I decided to restrain my lil selfie.. .... but you make a very deep and profound point, vapourminer. #justsaying

You are just repeating what you already said.. .which is largely bullshit, and it seems to be coming from the narrow mindset of a trader who does not understand how the concept of investing might well be different from trading, and also how the whole world does not need to be framed in trading terms in order to make sense.

You are not describing any necessary natural progression, even if there might be various truths in regards to people thinking in terms of their own interests, and so in that regard, they may well be thinking in terms of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, if you are wanting to try to put things in some kind of psychological motivation order that is not necessarily revolving around your seemingly narrow view of the world in which you are considering that economic incentives rule the world.. and I am not denying the importance of economic incentives, even though I will proclaim you are out of your depth when you keep trying to repeat that everything has to do with profits.


Yes.. from your point of view.. you do not seem to understand higher orders of thinking.

Some people have already met their basic needs of food, shelter, and safety and they might not be so urgently concerned about those kinds of things, even if you believe that you have everyone (and their motives) figured out... even though direct profits might motivate you, you are hardly in a place to proclaim that everyone else needs to prioritize their aims in life in the same way that you seem to believe that you need to do.


Maybe because people think in terms of a variety of motivations, and profits is just one of them, and maybe profits does not apply in all situations for all people? and not that it should, either.  I already mentioned the hedging behaviors in my earlier post, too.


Yes.. we love to talk about price in this forum.. you are correct about that..

Don't get me wrong, I am not even recommending that guys have such short investment time horizons as 4-10 years, and that is why I phrase my suggestion that getting into bitcoin should have a 4-10 year or longer time horizon, and the fact of the matter is that I consider 4 years to be minimum in terms of people who might have reasons that they might not be able to commit for longer, such as if they are elderly or have health conditions or they expect that they could start to have cashflow issues in and around that kind of a timeline.

I am just trying to be flexible in the way that I phrase these kinds of matters, yet guys who are brand new to investing, and if they are ONLY able to save/invest 10% of their income (and they have no other assets that they can move over into bitcoin), then they are likely going to have to plan to invest way longer than 10 years, and maybe 20-40 years - even though it is really hard to plan that far out, yet if someone is ONLY investing 10% of his income per year, then it is going to take 10 years for him to have had invested a whole year's of income into bitcoin, and sure it is possible that bitcoin way outperforms all other assets to increase the value of his investment, but he still has a problem of perhaps putting such small value into bitcoin in the early years that he is not really as advantaged by the BTC price going up, unless he can get more value in earlier and then he would be able to profit if BTC went shooting way up.

At the same time, I am not advocating overallocating to such a level (or front loading to such a level) that the person devolves into gambling, so the fact to the matter is that the guy is best off to invest as aggressively as he can without overdoing it and without engaging in leverage and figure out strategies to be aggressive, and so then let the investment work for him and the passage of time, and if he invests in reasonable ways, he might get lucky in such ways as to be able to cut back the reaching of a normal retirement (or fuck you status) in 30-40 years and to cut that down in half into something like 15-20 years.

Of course, a guy that comes to bitcoin with more resources, may well not have to wait so long as to get his bitcoin stash to work for him because he is able to lump sum, front load and reallocate from other assets, currencies and/or investments that he might have.... but guys still have to work with the cards that they have, and if they are real young, they are not necessarily disadvantaged, because a 50 year old guy might prefer to be somewhat broke and in his early 20s rather than being 50 years old - especially in terms of knowing about bitcoin as an investment and being able to see who bitcoin plays out in society, not only on a personal well being level but society wide over a lifetime.


Yep.. not only the power of compounding, but the power of conviction and the power of continuing to put value into the investment, which likely triggers an additional 4-10 year investment timeline for any new cash that is injected into the investment... yet at some point there will start to be enough value in the stash that there will either be some satisfaction that there is enough bitcoin in there or that some other strategies, beyond just BTC accumulation becomes part of the goal... and there can be some irony that the number of bitcoin that is needed in the future is likely going to continue to be a lot less than the number of bitcoin that is needed to day to reach a similar level of prosperity and the creation of options.


Well, there are likely stages to a lot of this, and there may well be stages after a guy starts to have enough BTC that he either shaves off some of his BTC to be able to diversify his wealth and/or his holdings, and there also might be stages in which a guy is able to greatly start to increase his consumption and/or to raise his standard of living.

No one can really say how to balance these trade offs between investing into bitcoin, investing in other things, and/or consumption. .and surely there can be kinds of consumptions that relate to basic needs and then there can be kinds of consumption that are more extravagant and showy.   And maybe some of the items cross over, such as the buying of more quality goods and services that may cost a lot more, but improve living comforts and even health... to buy better quality foods and maybe buy periods of relaxation, without necessarily having to worry about costs.  Sometimes it can also improve living standards to higher someone to help you with certain tasks, and that may help the other person out too, in order that the person can get paid.


Having an ATH prior to the halvening is not a break in the 4-year cycle.

Yeah there is a lot of demand right now on bitcoin due to the new buy channels that are opened up through the ETFs, so that might contribute towards the price going higher than expected in a short period of time, yet at the same time, there can be all kinds of explanations for why the BTC price is going higher now, including theories that the earlier cycle was cut short due to a lot of the corruption in the space and also the China government's apparent battle with kicking miners out of their country.


Fuck crypto.  We are talking about bitcoin here.

Otherwise if you meant to say bitcoin but you slipped, then you need to start to think about these matters more clearly and say what you mean, because crypto does not mean anything hardly, unless you clarify what you are talking about in relation to bitcoin.

Otherwise, in regards to your other points about various consecutive pumps and ongoing reasons for bitcoin to pump in 2024, yes they seem to exist for a variety of reasons... and at least 1) pressures from the ETF sales and extra buying that will come through those channels, 2) the halvening, 3) ongoing debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies and 4) perhaps some other reasons that might not be so clearly outlined in advance.. but just related to ongoing strengthening of the various bitcoin network effects (referring to the 7 outlined by Trace Mayer)


If someone is investing for the longer term, then he is likely going to be investing at least a couple of cycles, unless he is able to lump sum in, and then he might have a different agenda.

But even a guy who might have lump sum invested (or front-loaded) his investment somewhere towards the top of the 2021 cycle, he still would have had been able to do fine as long as he held on to his original investment, and just continued to buy throughout the whole period, and we can look at various scenarios to point out how such a persistent and consistent guy would have had performed at this time, and perhaps the ones who might have had the worst time would be the ones who sold on the way down and might not have figured out when or if to get back in or if they just sat on their hands the whole time and they are just eager to sell right now or at a profit, and so it is difficult to have sympathy for those kinds of guys who bought high and lacked enough conviction to continue to buy during the 2022 and 2023 periods in which the BTC price was way below a lot of the 2021 prices.

Those kinds of guys (and whiners) exist, yet personally, I have little sympathy for them, and I have no reason to suggest that they were doing anything prudent in the way that they played their bitcoin investment without having enough conviction to keep buying through 2022 and 2023..

Regarding time horizon, everyone is going to have his own investment time horizon that might already have to do with how much of an investment that he had already built up prior to coming into bitcoin.  But anyone who is brand new to bitcoin and/or brand new to investing, should be able to come to bitcoin thinking about investing 4-10 years or more, and frequently it will take them 10 years or more just to get their financial and psychological shit together . .as well as building up their investment nestegg.. especially if they are new to investing.. so if they are new to investing they might have no (reasonable) abilities to front-load their investment (and so they are ONLY stuck with DCA and various more modest tactics of building their BTC investment and also building other solid elements around their own personal finances),

especially if they might ONLY be investing $100 per week or even $10 per week for some guys who might be getting started from poorer areas of the world.  so it could take a while to build an investment portfolio at that rate.  So the guy investing $10 per week would only have invested $520 after a year and $5,200 after 10 years, yet the guy investing $100 per week would have 10x that amount, and a lot of these numbers end up relating back to their own financial needs in terms of how much they need to build up in order to perhaps later be able to either live off of their BTC or to be able to otherwise profit from their BTC investment to have it supplement their needs at some later time down the road.


Your way of framing the matter sounds strange to me because part of the idea of entering into a phase of sustainable withdraw is that you are measuring your overall BTC portfolio size and you are assessing the dollar value of it in terms of the 200-WMA so that you can figure out if you have enough to be able to start a withdrawal practice that mostly involves holding your BTC but shaving off small amounts periodically, whether you shave off monthly, quarterly, twice a year, annually or every couple of years.. or some other increment that makes sense. 

you value it based on the 200-WMA (which is the bottom price), yet of course, you are making any sales at spot price and maybe even selling way above the 200-WMA.  Your costs per BTC would not really be very relevant, even though presumptively,  you are selling in profits, but if you have enough BTC and you have a certain formula for selling, as I describe in my sustainable withdrawal thread, then you might not give any shits about whether you are in profits or not or how much you are in profits, but you already meet the criteria for being able to shave off in accordance with the parameters of how much you have an dhow much you expect it to continue to grow so that any amount that you are shaving off is likely going to not significantly impact the overall value of the investment.

We are getting too much off topic in going down this line anyhow.. because this thread is about accumulation rather than about selling... and I am more than open to discuss these ideas in my sustainable withdrawal thread, yet you might have to think it through a bit anyhow, because you have to get to a state of sufficiently accumulating in your quantity of BTC before it even starts to make sense to begin to employ various withdrawal and/or raking strategies.


You just described the direct opposite of what I said and what the BTC price shows.  The BTC spot price is almost never below the 200-WMA, except between mid-2022 and about October 2023, it spent quite a bit of time below the 200-WMA.. which largely shows that it was a bargain to be buying BTC during that period.


If the BTC spot price starts getting close to the 200-WMA, then that will likely mean that the 200-WMA is not going to go up as fast and those might be periods to sell fewer BTC (if we are talking about sustainable withdrawal) and maybe even times to buy more BTC if we are in our BTC accumulation stages, and yeah it has tended to take a whole cycle before the BTC price gets back down to the 200-WMA.. and so right now we are more than 2x higher than the 200-WMA, but in 2021 we were 5-6x higher in early 2021 and around 3x higher in late 2021, and in late 2017 the BTC price had gotten around 14x higher than the 200-WMA.  You can see the numbers through the sustainable withdrawal tool and putting in various dates.


Yeah.. play around with it.  There is a part that looks at the present, and you can also back test results with the simulator... so you want to attempt to get value out of the tool, then make sure you work the date of the simulator or even back test your stash size (or hypothetical stash size) in accordance with a dollar value that is based on the 200-WMA and not just looking at the BTC spot price.


There is no long term investing in cryptocurrencies.  Fuck shitcoins.  No one should even try to invest in them in the long term. 

Now if you meant to say bitcoin instead of using the term cryptocurrency, then why didn't you just say it?  Are you trying to sound smart by using a meaningless, vague and misleading term.  Hopefully none of us are investing in cryptocurrencies in the long term.  That would be retarded.


It is difficult to predict the short term, but of course, right now there are a lot of ongoing upwards pressures on the BTC price, due to a lot of the demand that is coming from the BTC spot ETFs and perhaps others who are also buying in relation to the data that is showing a lot of ongoing BTC buying happening through the BTC spot ETFs. 

There seem to be decently good chances that BTC prices will reach $80k and even $100k prior to the halvening, yet at the same time, none of us know, and if we are not trading and if we are still accumulating BTC, then we might prefer that the BTC price does not go up as fast, so that we can buy more BTC... So yeah, guys have to choose how much BTC to buy and to continue to buy and the dilemma is not necessarily going to get any better because there might still continue to be logic to continue to buy, and some uncertainties regarding whether dips will continue to happen or to come down to the level of current prices at a later date.

Why are you asking such question?  Are you planning to sell in the short term?  Have you already been accumulating BTC? You are pretty new to the forum (only here since late September 2023), so are you newly accumulating BTC or have you been buying BTC for a while prior to your forum registration?  Of course, many of us in this thread suggest that guys who do not have any BTC should start buying to at least have some to prepare for up, so hopefully you have some BTC rather than just watching the price continuing to go up.


That is a good point. We have to make sure that we invest into bitcoin with our time, energy and value in an amount that still allows us to experience our regular life, too, and yeah, to take care of our body and our mind as part of our routine (or our daily practices that have a decent diet, a sufficient amount of sleep and some exercise and/or other activities).

Probably some of us consider the WO thread as the troll box of the forum.. or the forum's main chat thread....and maybe some forum members don't know that?    Even though a newbie might get beaten up verbally if joining the WO thread as a beginner, no one can really stop anyone from posting there about any topic, even though you will likely get beaten up if you try to pump shitcoins in that thread...

I think that it is good if newbies come into the thread, especially if they have actual ideas that they are able to back up and to comment upon current happenings in bitcoinlandia..

With the ongoing volume of BTC purchases by the ETFs, I cannot accept that BTC prices are going to stay down significantly, absent some real concrete evidence of drying up of demand... so let's see how the first few days of this week plays out in terms of the additional sucking up of the BTC supply...and even if we were to have one week that would be low volume, I probably would need to see low volume for more than just one week.. but hey, I tend to be a lagging indicator, anyhow.... in terms of my own ways of thinking about some of these BTC price dynamics matters.

Another thing is that there is almost nothing unusual about BTC prices pushing upwards (whether we are talking about ATHs or just otherwise, the BTC price does not tend to get stuck at the absolute top of the range, so it will tend to push up and then it may well correct back down 3-8% or maybe some other amount, and then spend a little time consolidating at a little bit of a lower point before resuming its upward journey.. and I cannot see anything different in our current range that seems to be 6% to 12% from the top.

That is funny, but it is not very nice... and I suppose it depends on the "friend."

I know that it can get annoying to continue to have to say the same thing to people and they continue to ignore us and they fail/refuse to act and/or to take responsibility for their own research, due diligence and also taking proper steps rather than having to get spoon fed and hand holding along the way..

There are ONLY so many hours in the day... and yeah, maybe if they came to you after having had done some proper research, then surely there is information out there.. but sometimes they might still need to be guided to help to know the difference between good information and information that is not so good.

I am not completely disagreeing with your seeming saltiness, but there are virtues in patience too.. .. maybe een to suggest an assignment and then have them come back to you after they did the assignment.


Another good point.

AlcoHoDL is a haiku cheater.

Someone had to say it, and I am just agreeing with the BIG meanie, also known as vapourminer, who said it first.


I am starting to think that he has a bit of a vendetta with Jaime Diamond and those kinds of people.  He is being a bit more confrontational than his usual character in which he is saying not to be confrontational.. while he is doing a similar thing that he had been advising not to do.. yet I am not sure if he is really overextending himself, but he might get the attention of the wrong people when he is being so blatant about the whole seemingly printing his stocks matter.. ..

bitcoin goes up, he prints more stocks to buy bitcoin which causes his stocks to go up so he can print more money from the stocks in order to be able to buy more bitcoin.. .what could go wrong?

Yeah, sometimes we might be confusing the definitions, and it seems that bitcoin has a bit of a pattern that justifies the consideration of the 4-year cycle, even if the cycle may well end up getting broken at some point... however, if we already have a pattern of a 4 -year cycle, then, it is likely helpful to at least attempt to recognize that such pattern has so far tended to play around the timeline of the halvening.

So yeah we do not necessarily need to plan out 10 years or more in order to be considered long term, but if we really consider what people might want to do with their investment into bitcoin, then we likely can see that they are wanting to make their lives better in the future.... so yeah.. I suppose that there could be such things as long term, medium term and short term trades, and so any one getting involved in bitcoin for less than 4 years could be trading within various periods of time, yet it would be difficult to classify them as an investor in bitcoin if they have a timeline that is shorter than 4 years.


I thought that I had already sufficiently explained this.

If you are valuating your BTC stash from the bottom price, then you are going to have had established a cushion in terms of how many BTC that you need, and in BTC historically, the bottom price has continued to move up more than 20% on an annualized basis, and if you are ONLY withdrawing 4%, then your BTC stash is likely going to continue to grow, especially because you continue to measure it in terms of the bottom price, so once you get started, you may well need to increase your withdrawal rate to 10% or even higher.  Of course, if you continue to monitor BTC's bottom price and it continues to move up faster than your withdrawal rate, then you continue to have a cushion and your BTC holdings continues to grow.

Let's say for example you felt that you needed $3.3k per month to live off of your BTC (which would be a $1million stash size at 4% withdrawal rate), and if you look at the current BTC bottom price, you will see that it is currently right around $32,200, which means that you need 31.1 BTC to reach that level, but if you were employing a 10% withdrawal rate, then you would need ONLY right around 12.4 BTC to achieve that same results in terms of being able to withdraw at least $3,300 per month..

You can look at the sustainable withdrawal tool, and plug in your own numbers to see how your own numbers play out (or your aspirational numbers) and to play with the tool.. and it seems that part of the trick is getting your BTC stash to a high enough level that you start to feel comfortable with starting to withdraw and including that measuring  from the bottom value will likely allow you to not over do it..  but you still have to have enough coins and to not overly withdrawal, especially if you are still nervous about whether you have enough when you start to withdraw and to live off of them as compared to when you might have had been still in your BTC portfolio building stages. 


The dollar has been decreasing its purchasing power, but not bitcoin, especially if you are using the 200-WMA as your way to valuate your BTC stash... so yeah, maybe you would not want to start to withdraw too soon if you are measuring that you need $3,300 per month in dollars, but that you expect that you might need $6,600 in the next few years, so then you might want to have a sufficient quantity of BTC as your extra cushion in order to account for the dollar value not going as far as it had gone previously..


That is why you measure from the bottom rather than the top, and also the tool reduces the withdrawal authorization amount if the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA.. yet even with a back testing of the tool, really aggressive withdrawal rates that go even greater than the 6% to 10% rate that I suggest to be sustainable would still have had been sustainable, even given the up and down years... that is one of the amazing things about bitcoin so far in its history.. even though its spot price has been pretty volatile, but if you had been measuring from 200-WMA, then you would have had been able to have an adequate cushion.


If you are still building your BTC stash, then you might not even be ready to start withdrawing.. so it may well be way better to keep building until you have enough, and BTC allows much greater withdrawal rates than traditional 4 % patterns which are still pretty whimpy as compared with bitcoin's ongoing powerful performance.

And yeah, no matter what you do, you have to feel comfortable with your withdrawal rate and to make sure that you account for all your expenses, otherwise you are jumping ahead of yourself if you have only accumulated a few BTC but you are expecting a $3.3k monthly income that keeps up with inflation.. .. but if you have 12.4 BTC or more, you are likely in good shape to be withdrawing that quantity and even withdrawing at 6% to 10% per year.


You are the one who was falsely proclaiming that we were in a bear market during your accumulation of bitcoin, which surely is not true.. .so maybe it is just best that you stop looking at the price at all.. and don't over invest.. just buy regularly some amount that you can tolerate if you may lose or not, and then after you have been through more than a whole cycle, then reassess the situation at that time.

In other words, you seem to be spending a lot of time worrying which way the BTC price might go, but why should that matter?  Maybe you have a system and you have $400 per month that you could invest (which is $100 per week), so you invest 1/3 or that right away no matter what, and maybe the other 2/3 is used for making sure your finances are in order.. and then as you continue to study bitcoin then maybe you can change your amounts later on.. or if you are comfortable with 1/3 going to DCA right away, 1/3 building your emergency fund, and the other 1/3 to wait to buy on dips, if dips happen, and if they don't you just let that amount build up (which might be called your reserves).

In the end, you have to be comfortable with what you are doing, and if you are not comfortable, then maybe you are investing too much.  It could be that you are investing beyond your level of knowledge and/or your level of comfort... so you just have to take it slower.. until you might be comfortable to become more aggressive.

I frequently have asserted that we should all try to be as aggressive as we can be without overdoing it, and if you don't know some of the basic price dynamics in bitcoin, then you might need to make sure that you are not being more aggressive than the level of your knowledge and/or your comfort.

Raw milk or straight from the cow's teet might be good.

But this time, they cannot shut off the exchanges and/or remove the buy button - at least when it comes to bitcoin.


Funny thing about MSTR stock is that it has such a large bitcoin component.. so there are some difficult to control dynamics that reflect upon its price.


Here, we are preaching to to the choir a little bit, but there still can be some challenges in terms of who is doing what and what are going to be the next attack vectors that relate to bitcoin, and there could even end up being a few casualties among us....


Now I see why people do this "1BTC = 1BTC" thingie...

It is because it is so difficult to keep track of its price... but still. it just isn't saying anything... even though maybe someone is using the expression to say to hang onto your BTC and/or stack more of them if you can no matter how much they might cost in terms of fiat.  Even though I don't really disagree with it, I still don't really like the expression.


We might even be further left of the chart because any subsequent correction after a hype period may well not even correct back down to our current BTC price levels.


He is using the money printer go bbbbbrrrrr that is within his powers to buy more sound money, which is bitcoin... which then contributes to causing his share prices to go up more, rinse and repeat.