I misspoke, the 'chasm' is between the early adopters and early majority, and given that, perhaps you are right-- I don't think so, I tend to think we are just crossing into the early adopter stage, only. That's how the infrastructure is getting rolled out for the 1 or 2 out of 100 to be able to use it. Even at early adopter stage, the usability must be pretty decent, and it's just now coming-of-age at the most basic levels. Even those are lacking-- the best example is the exchanges, and some merchant services-- still no remittances, micropayments, escrow, et al. While at early innovator stages, it was really only a very tiny subset that was able to fit the requirements for usage.

If you subscribe to the ideas of 'Crossing the Chasm', then what might the chasm represent? Would it be the question of how does a regular Joe use bitcoin? I think that's a reasonable place holder, and one for which Bitoin still has a long way to go. Remember, early adopters are some 13% of the market. There is no way we have made large inroads to that group. We are probably still well under 1% adoption, though the media is covering this realm.

Hello, I'm a newer poster here-- just want to say hello and thank you for your dialogue and share a few of mine own thoughts. What an awesome thread! Slippery Slope, thank you and others for such careful and thoughtful analysis.

As stated, we have now seen the confirmed continuation within what appears to be the suggested trajectory (parabolic or however you wish to define it). While the nearly horizontal channel between approximately 750 - 850 held for several days, the breakout gives us further evidence that another doubling may reasonably occur, as stated. The fact that it was more horizontal should indicate greater strength at the breakout.

Perhaps the retracement to 450 from 900 will not ultimately be part of this bubble's character, if, in hindsight we are looking at one or even 2 more doublings in the coming weeks?

Or, else, the echo bubble idea seems reasonable, too.  While media continues to cover Bitcoin, it certainly seems to be lessening, in cascading and diminishing reflections, as does volume. These two things should be increasing, if I understand the principles correctly, creating the fuel to drive price through resistance.

So what do you guys make of the current double top near 900$??
There is no bubble that i know of that has had a double top after a more then 50% retraction. Isnt it a bubble after all? Is it one of the often cited but rarely observed "echo bubbles"?

I bet most of the readers believe I have the upper hand, and also I think so.

I have a strategy, which does not involve a stop-loss. It involves a concept called creep from last May. I am still short the coins..

..but I have to say it hurts. Just like it hurt after selling in September and seeing the price go up. When enough people have this realization, perhaps we will see singularity after all. 

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

My buy some more and hold strategy worked so far. I dribbled out quite a few fractional buys: 511, 601, 598, 622, 606, 593, 600 and 607. Currently, MtGox is surging upwards, beyond $700 as I finish this.

I am worried about Risto's big bet that prices are going lower.

Not a startup, but in terms of market share, number or regular users etc. it's comparable.

+1  I see it very unlikely that we will drop below our April highs (the buy pressure below that is enormous). I see nothing technically nor fundamentally at the moment that would suggest that. We just got ahead of ourselves, and this will happen many times going forward as news waves of new money come into the game, and the traders play off this, as far as they can.

. . . However, we are testing support at $500 (Gox) and that looks like it very well may not hold.

If that support does not hold then we could be on a slower drip down.  It looks at least like we are not going to consolidate in the 700s, so I do not think we will be going up to new highs in the next couple of weeks. Of course, I could be absolutely wrong. But right now, I'd take that bet that we are going lower for a while (not like in April) before getting our legs back. And the longer we go down, the longer its going to take us to go back up. We very well might not see ATHs until 2014.

Great thread with good accuracy! Respect you called it right.

Here is some contribution of mine. I would say your approach is better because it is universal, while I was trying to make out indicators of the final stages of a bubble by looking at it graphically. The disadvantage of it is that you have to accomodate bubbles you want to compare in the same image to keep the ratio. Read all about how I did it here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/sptX03Sf/

Update: The Final trend line (not in version of upper picture) turned out exactly 83.0° and is typical for the last slope increase before collapse. It started from 498$ and was finally crossed by the falling candle body at 706$. The candle closed below the trendline, which is, if you read my methodoligy beyond this link cryteria for calling the burst. I have to admit anecdotely that I sold at 580$, not going all the way with my method. I could have gained another 20%.

They already are, in a way.

* June 2011 peaked at 7x the value it had 1 month before and then dropped by 90% at its worst.

* April 2013 peaked at 5x compared to 1 month before and bottomed at 70% less.

* November 2013 I would've expected to see peaking at about 4x, but China helped it do 5.21x again, so another -65%, -70% movement is possible now.

There is a very compelling argument right now that the recent price movement is driven by fundamentals because of China's recent en masse entry to the buyers market.

Fitting to a trendline has no relationship to these fundamentals, and if we are to believe that there is something technologically-transformative or revolutionary about Bitcoin, then the fundamentals are the dominant factor in driving long-term pricing. This is not pork bellies, barrels of oil, or frozen concentrated orange juice.