Ok.  sure, if we are assuming that the person does not own any bitcoin, then it would be fine to get in, and even though 100% front loading (in terms of a lump sum) is recommended by some folks, I tend to want to divide that initial sum into 3 parts in order to account for trepidations that people might get in the event that the BTC price drops, then they have some of that money for buying on dips and DCA'ing... so the default position would be to divide the $10k into three and to go from there in terms of figuring out how to employ each of the three aspects.

So yeah, if there is also more cashflow coming in on a regular basis in the future, there could be an attempt to put 10% of the investment money (not 10% of the total income) into bitcoin because expenses need to be made and some assessment needs to be made about other investments too, and how to allocate... so yeah, by the time a person figures out their whole budget and how much money that they might have left that is available for investment, then it might be difficult to figure out how much to allocate into bitcoin. 

So for example, if we project that a person might have $3k of money coming in, but $2k is necessary for various expenses, so there is only $1k left for various investments (and than might even be a lot to be assuming that anyone is able to feel comfortable spending 33% of the cashflow on various investments), then from that there might be some decisions about how much of that to use for DCA into bitcoin, and other investments (for example maybe they have some kind of 401k with matching funds and there might be a decent incentive to at least put the maximum matching component into that)...


So individuals do tend to need to assess what is reasonable to be putting away and making sure that they have various kinds of funds that would be available for emergency withdraw, and some folks consider bitcoin as part of their emergency fund (especially because bitcoin tends to be pretty damned liquid, relatively speaking), which surely seems like a bad practice in my thinking.. because it is a form of being over-invested (because you should not be putting yourself into any kind of position to have to withdraw from any of your investments - especially bitcoin of a time that is not of your own choosing and we have seen that bitcoin has been very good as a very long term investment - at least so far).. so there should be some cash bonds of cash account that might earn low interest that would be drawn from in the event of an emergency and then during the emergency there might NOT be any ability to continue to invest into bitcoin until the various cash and emergency funds are replenished or on the way to being replenished, first.  I understand that hardly anyone creates several months of cash - or liquid funds - (maybe even 6 months or more) to be able to draw from, even though that is a best practice to stop them from playing roulette with their investment money and overinvesting... but many people (probably a vast majority of the population) have few clues about how to invest anyhow, because the ONLY assets of value that they may end up having would be their property, home (if they have one) and a 401k (if they have such option through their employer), and then they have hardly any fucking clue about how to have some kind of investment (and especially the temptation of having extra cash) while trying to build enough restraining themselves power to NOT be tempted into tapping into such reserve funds before it even reaches a level to be able to have other money to actually "invest."

Yes some of us here might be the exception to the rule and have learned how to actually invest, but we are likely a minority and many people have troubles relating to such concepts because they put their own spin on it, which tends to be treating their investments as forms of gambling.

Why don't we put this into context?  You are admittedly a newbie in bitcoin, and you come into a long term bitcoin thread, and you want to root for downity bitcoin prices, merely because you are a newbie and you do not have enough coins.

Does that make much sense to you?

I remember in 2014 there were members rooting for down, and the BTC price kept going down, and then when the price got to the bottom, some of those members rooting for down disappeared..

Does it make any sense for the bitcoin price to go down several thousand more dollars and for you to merely pick up .015BTC, and the rest of us suffer thousands (or even million dollars) of lost value "on paper" in order for you to buy measly amounts of bitcoin?




If you are in it for the long term, then it could take several cycles before you really feel like you have both built a meaningful stash and that you are quite a bit in comfortable profits... of course, mileage is going to vary in terms of when those tipping points take place... for example, going from a beggar to a mediumly comfortable to feeling almost rich to feeling rich to feeling fuck you rich status to feeling filthy wealthy.. and sure not everyone is going to be able to reach the highest of the stages.



Those people might get stuck chasing the train while they drop their luggage.. and so what, the train is not going to stop for their greedy and non-prepared lil asses.


There are always going to be some people who are failing and refusing to act.. and some of them don't even set up an account so that they are able to have a vehicle through which they are going to be able to act.



Well do what you can do.... rooting for down does not seem that great of a line to be using in these here parts.


It is still early days, so there are a whole hell of a lot of people and institutions and governments who have hardly any exposure at all to this asset class... so surely it should feel good to have some insight into the matter and to have some systems set up to buy what you can and attempt to buy on dips or whatever when new cash comes in, so that you continue to have some kinds of advantages.  Sure, even when bitcoin gets to be $100k or $200k and you might only have a few coins, there might be some newbies coming into bitcoin and buying 100s or even 1,000s of coins, and you feel like a small potato relatively speaking, but that just seems to be part of the ongoing likely dynamic of this asset class whether it gets to $200k this cycle or it takes another cycle to get there.


I speculate that Adam had a mental breakdown, and he was surely distracted by BIGblocker nonsense for a decently long period of time, so I wonder how many coins that he was able to hang onto, rather than getting distracted into various shitcoins... but sure, hopefully he did not fuck his lil selfie too badly with the varying lackenings of focus that especially seemed to have come around the time that he lost his account here (wasn't that early 2017?), and then he failed/refused to get it back because he had too much pride..

So at least, richie_T (not meaning to overly drag in another BIG blocker sympathizer) did not go that far and seemed to have hung onto chartbuddy (and some BTC, too) and his willingness to put up with us shitheads around here (in the WO thread).. thanks richie and thanks chart buddy (fellow bot - no homo).

There is nothing wrong to expect that this kind of correction could happen, but surely there is a difference between having a wick and having a 3 month or more lagging down at those lower levels.

So, it is kind of difficult to suggest what the significance of such a dip would be without figuring out either how long the price would stay down there and if the price would thereafter recover and reach new highs and how long that might take.


You seem to be presuming too much about what the significance of such a price drop would be.

You also seem to be presuming that the stock to flow model is irrelevant as well.

Lot of presumptions in what you are saying while seeming to fail and refuse to account for what BTC actually is, including to but not limited to failing to adequately account for its various ongoing and currently credible price models.




Huh?  I don't know about that.

We had one baby front run which was the 3.5x price rise from April to June 2019.. and then we got this second front run of 6.5x from September to April... so kind of hard for you to be prematurely proclaiming that you know what it all means, even if we were to get a dip down to the lower $20ks.. and especially that you are not even specifying any kind of different analysis in regards to if we were to have a wick versus a longer term stagnation in the lower $20ks... couple of different scenarios.. and probably both of those scenarios would accompany a purging of some froth in the shitcoin space.. but I am not even sure if a purging of froth is necessary in that kind of way or if such a purging would even cause BTC prices to inevitably drop.. .. too many possible factors for this here cat to be making broad and sweeping proclamations in regards to significance.. when probably more importantly would be to start from the currently valid BTC price prediction models such as stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption and figure out if any of those models are either broken or in need of tweaking and to proceed with any kind of analysis while taking those three models into account rather than just making up your own shit that seems to either not even account for those three models or to cursorily presume that the three models are broken or irrelevant.



You seem to be getting ahead of ur lil selfie... we have not even gotten out of this four year cycle and you are jumping into the next one.  hahahahaha.. you are full of desires to paint your own picture forward, which is probably even more likely to be correct since, like I already mentioned, you are not even hardly accounting for seemingly currently valid BTC price models... shouldn't that be called rolling your own model?

Well, I am glad that you are asserting that you are happy regardless of price direction.. and I surely have my hesitancies to proclaim that I have any kind of clue regarding whether any further down might be needed or inevitable or whatever.... we have frequently seen the "down before up" proclamations NOT end up playing out.... so frequently when anyone is proclaiming that we "have to" go down before up, that gives me some sense that they are not really as prepared for UP as they might be making themselves out to be.. but to each their own.   The down before up are probably not less than 50/50 even though we have already had down to 56% correction and even though we have already been bouncing around in the lower $30ks for a considerable amount of time.

In my thinking, the truly neutral position for anyone who happens to be sufficiently and adequately "invested in bitcoin" is going to be biased towards up, but willing, ready and able to take advantage of down, if such down were to happen rather than be appearing to be wishing for down.. but hey.. I have seen plenty of down-wishers in my bitcoin days.. and a good number of them proclaim to be bitcoin bulls.. even one who has a name that has bio in the beginning and ends with an m... not saying that he is the ONLY one who happens to have a frequent practice of being a down-wisher, but he loves when I talk about him.   

In other words, seem to me that anyone who invests into something (whether we are talking about bitcoin or anything else) should be shooting for the price to go up, rather than down (especially after it already did a 56% correction).. but whatever, peeps are gonna peep... I suppose.

Gosh... I didn't even get triggered, or did I?

Speaking of the BTC price:

As I type we seem to be dippenning and pushing upon low $32ks.... perhaps?  Perhaps?

What to do peeps?

Cry?

Or something else?

Exactamente...

our good ole drama queen buddy bbbbbbbaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwbbbbbbbb is ongoingly setting his lil selfie up for "suffering" during the near inevitable dippenings (in udder words, "pain").  


I hope not.  Surely I would prefer $28.6k to have been the bottom, and I would prefer NOT to revisit anything below $20k, if such a wish fulfillment might be possible.  Perhaps?  Perhaps?


I am not even sure if we might NOT be communicating ourselves very clearly, because I am not really making any kind of claim to knowing transcendental truth/reality or even if such a thing matters very much.

I was suggesting that some people seem to be way the hell more detached from reality than others, and when some of those kinds of people are suggesting that all truth is relative, then such claims dilute the fact that there are more plausible claims upon closer approximations of reality - without even getting to any kind of need for consensus or agreement, even though I am not going to argue that there are not a whole fucking lot of agreements in existence that started way before any of us were born, and at the same time the various agreements are a evolving phenomenon with bitcoin being a pretty big and new consensus stimulating element that did not exist prior to 2009 - at least in any kind of meaningful and widespread practicing form.


Sure I do happen to have a life outside of the forum, so "busy" might be one way of describing what I have been up to, and did not have any need to wax my ears or make any other adjustments to my head size beyond normal and routine daily/weekly maintenances... oh and I did wear a hat (in real life) a few times, too in the past week... just for funzies.

Just to be clear, for the most part, I personally have not been depressed by the various feelings of burden that might come (from time to time) of sending out smerits, but you can imagine a system that has been in place for about 3.5 years is not going to always have persons who might not go through moods that might either relate to forum activity or activity outside of the forum (if such a thing actually exists?).

Also, it may be worth it for me to reiterate that there can be variations of practices in regards to how much some smerit source members are ready, willing or able to venture outside of their usual stomping grounds in terms of if they want to spread smerits wider and wider... and also whether mistakes might sometimes happen in terms of giving out smerits to forum members who might neither be genuine or even a real person.. Sometimes it can be difficult to measure those kinds of matters, and there does not even seem to be any kind of rule that smerit source members should attempt to make meaningful attempts to figure out if their smerits are being sent to shills, trolls, disingenuine persons or even non-persons, even if some smerit source members might determine that they do want to send merits to those kinds of members who they suspect of falling into such categories.

I mentioned that on a personal level I do attempt to balance on the side of sending smerits for a post that might be on the margins rather than holding back, but sure if I am very tired on one day, I might even choose not to attempt to read any forum posts because I might feel that I might not have enough attention span to actually be able to even meet my own discretionary standards in regards to determining if a post (or members) reaches a threshold for me to send an smerit to a post that the member had made.

I have quite a few reservations about the perspectives of the anti-vaxers.. es tpecially the ones who are seeming to just spout off whatever nonsense that they expect that is hardly based on any kind of solid evidence, besides their own fantasy wishes.

But at the same time, it probably would be problematic to just do whatever the fuck our doctor says, too.... so definitely doctors and the various aspects of the medical system do need various kinds of push-back from the population because sometimes doctors also get caught up in pushing one thing or another without really having much if any actual science backing them up and sometimes based upon sources (whether we are talking about insurance companies, politicians or drug/food industries) that are pushing their own agendas that are not necessarily in the interest of the individual patients (or member of society - aka pleb, aka normie, aka us peeps).



Yeah.. exactly.. we are back to $32k, until we are not...   One of the difficulties of getting involved in short-term nonsense (noise) remains the fact that it's all over the fucking place, even if you might have your favorite short-term theories which way the shadows might be currently moving in the cave, how far they might move, and why.

The most important part of your whole analysis is the part that I bolded above.

hahahahahaha




Cute.. little duckies chasing around BIG duckie...educational about both nature and our lillie fiend, aka bitcoin, all at the same time.


Sure, everything is relative, but some things are relatively close to absolute and pure nonsense and should not deserve anything close to serious considerations.

In other words, if we have some kind of best case scenario that describes various aspects of reality that is 70% likely to be true, and we have another version of reality that is 0.315218% likely to be true, wouldn't you reasonably conclude that it would be a better approach to life to attempt to get closer to the 70% likely variation of reality than the one that is a minuscule percentage that is even less than 1% likely of being true?  

In other words, proclaiming that "everything is relative" is a failure and refusal to even attempt to grapple with nuances and just continue to spout out bullshit ideas as if they deserve some kind of fair hearing, when they do not... you seemingly relative dumb ass (just saying.. no homo).    

There is a certain amount of truth in what you are saying babo, because I have been expanding my involvement across the forum ever since about early January 2018 in order to attempt to come across forum members that I had not previously known and even to try to get acquainted with newbie members.  

I surely have always had an intention to NOT be sending smerits to forum members who seem to be shills, trolls or otherwise using the forum for disingenuous purposes - while at the same time, trying to error on the side of sending an smerit (or more) if there seems to be some kind of value, contribution or thought that is contained in the post whether or not I agree with the content of the post or even whether or not I like the forum member overall.... so surely, the longer that any of us serves in smerit source positions we are likely going to be revising our own ways of thinking about doing the tasks of sending smerits, and sometimes some of the source members are going to get overwhelmed by the task of having a decently "large" bank of source smerits to send every 30 days or fail /refuse to send smerits that come to them (maybe not even any fault of their own in terms of being able to keep up, but such smerit source member does not necessarily want to be involved in such kinds of endeavors of figuring out which members or posts are "deserving" of an smerit (or more) from the discretionary standpoint of the smerit source member).

So yeah, for example if your smerit source amount doubles, then theoretically it could create double the work, or maybe there might be some kind of compromise approach that the source member might attempt to make to lower the barrier to the kinds of post/members to send smerits or perhaps just double the quantity of smerits that such smerit source member sends per post.  

To date, theymos has been pretty good about completely leaving these kinds of considerations up to the smerit source members to figure out what kind of systems that they are going to employ to distribute their source smerits, and he seems to have also been pretty willing to giving oil to squeaky wheels - and surely, I have no problem with that because there if the forum member has not really shown any kind of abusive personality disorder - even if each of us might not exactly agree with what appears to be the smerit sending thresholds of such forum members, when they are squeaking about wanting more smerits to distribute they are at least proclaiming (through such squeakenings hahahahahha) that they are more than willing to send out way more smerits than their then current smerit allocation is allowing them to be able to accomplish.

Probably also theymos has ways of being able to monitor whether some smerit source members are sending out their smerits in a fairly soon manner after replenishing their source merits or if they are having source smerits decaying after 30 days for lack of use or that it takes some members in the ballpark of close to 30 days to spend from their replenished smerit source supply.

On a personal level, I do try to spend my source merit replenishments in a fairly prompt timeframe from when they are replenished, but believe it or not, I also do have a life outside of the forum, so sometimes it might take me a week or so to get my source smerits down to zero.. and so if my smerit source balance lingers for a longer period of time with a higher balance, I do tend to want to attempt to bring it down to zero, and sure, maybe I am pressured into considering if I need to alter my method of sending out smerits.. which also could be felt as a kind of work to figure out a system that is comfortable for me and my availability to read and perhaps even to reflect upon the content of the posts of other forum members.

Believe it or not, we are around 3.5 years of this smerit system, so I guess that some success can be considered in terms that the recent changes that theymos chose to make to the smerit system were in the ballpark of incrementalistic increases in the already existing system and the smerit source base rather than going down the path of some kind of a total revision.. A sign of success?  the whole smerit system seems to be kind of working.. at least, from my vantage point of what the smerit/merit system is (and attempts to incentivize) and the recent changes that theymos chose to make to such system.

Of course, there is a lot of luck in investing in anything, but persistent investing creates some of the luck in terms of if the investment ends up going up in the long run.   So, in some sense, if you do not have a lot of money to start with it is going to either take a long time or a lot of BTC price appreciation for you to either feel the effect or to become rich off of it, yet at the same time, you should be attempting to work with what you got rather than engaging in overly leveraging kinds of behaviors - and in that regard, bitcoin seems to continue to be one of the best investments out there in terms of considering both downside and upside risk and both downside and upside potential.

So a convincing definition of luck is where preparation meets opportunity.. so yeah, the idea of DCA investing is good, with a wee bit of front loading of the investment (if you can) combined with some levels of preparations to be able to buy on the dip, if the BTC price dips from here or if it ends up dipping at latter dates (presuming that it already went up and then dips at that point).

Seems better to figure out ways to live on earth, but whatever, several of you guys believing in better possibilities outside of earth should leave first so we can purge our lil selfies (as a species) of some of the fantasies.

 


Richie is not really done with Bcash or those dumbass BIGblocker talking points, but he seems to kind of be coming around.. he's probably never going to completely normal, but who is?  especially in these here parts (didn't we call it "bat country" at some point?).

 

Yes.. if you post a separate thread then link it here, or if you want to discuss your strategy in this thread, then that might be helpful too, even though sometimes some threads of conversation will get lost in this thread, so sometimes it is better to just create a separate thread if you want to keep the conversation going based on your own framing of the topic.


Two are true and one is a lie.


 


guess which?


It would be nice if some benevolent folks would attack those various shitcoins, just to show them for the real pieces of shit that they are... might as well throw that ethereum bullshit into the attack too.. but since ethereum is an even more centralized piece of shit, they might have figured out ways that attacks upon it can be covered up.. with their dumb ass smoke and mirrors and acting as if actually functions in any kind of meaningful way that benefits anyone in the real world beyond scamsters and swindlers.. who speak a language called gobbledy-gook buzz buzz.


Do you believe in the 10x price increase that we have seen since 2017?

I admit that a "wall of money" is a bit of strong language, but the fact of the matter is bitcoin is not likely to be continuing its path UPpity, and that is the main framework to keep in mind, so it really does not matter if we recognize any kind of actual "wall of money" that we can see.. the reality is that "it's happening," and it has been happening for 10 years, and probably even "happening" in way greater degrees than a large number of longer term BTC HODLers could have actually expected to have been playing out.

Yeah, sure some older time BTC HODLers are complaining that BTC is not yet at $100k or whatever, and that we had a 56% price correction at a time that "it was not supposed to happen" and blah blah blah.. but the way that this thing is playing out means that each of us, whether OG's are not better get a fucking grip because it is happening, even if it might not look like we had hoped for or thought it would be in our heads - and this is what the greatest wealth transfer in human kind actually looks like, while in the midst of it.

As for you biodom, the party poop, sure you can speak some of your anticipations of long term UPpity, but it seems that on an ongoing basis you are whining that the BTC price is too high and overly in need of a price correction, that may or may not play out.  Sure, sometimes your doom and gloom wishenings (or whinnenings) might end up playing out, but the reality remains that you likely expected us to still be at $10k or sub $10k, instead of where we are at... so there you have it, ongoingly proclaiming that we are in a bull market merely because we had a 56% price correction comes off as unnecessary and ongoing doom and gloom - and hopefully, not too many innocent peeps are injured by your ongoing whinings.. by either failing to sufficiently pee pare their lil selfies for UPpity or waiting for DOWNities that may well not happen.

Probably one of the greatest likelihoods in bitcoin is that it is going to be ongoingly volatile - even though there are also likely going to be periods of BTC's price moving within a range, so we are not always going to know either how long the ranging will last, when the BTC price will break out or the direction of the BTC price break out, but most likely the range is not going to last for more than a year... but even that is not guaranteed...   

BTC's price was pretty much ranging in through $250 for 10 months in 2015 (mostly from $220-ish to $280-ish, with a few breakouts in the midst of that).. and this particular cycle (referring to our being in a bull market since April 2019), so far, we have not had any BTC price ranging that has lasted more than 5-6 months, so surely we could enter into another one of those periods in which we are stuck in a narrow range for a decently long period of time, but I am having quite a few doubts that we will be hanging around these $30ks for anywhere even close to 5-6 months, especially that I am still working with an underlying presumption that we are likely continuing to be in a bull market, until the facts and logic start to have stronger inferences that we are no longer in a bull market, and I personally do not like to make presumptions on what has already happened, including the fact that we have had around a 56% price correction during what we had already considered to be a bull market and the mere fact of a 56% price correction (so far) does not convince me that we are yet outside of the bull market (conclude whatever you like, but that ongoing bull market continues to be my ongoing conclusion until shown otherwise from further facts/logic).   

So, of course, even though anything is possible, we have already been in this particular price range of the mid-$30s-ish for around 6-7 weeks (which may well be considered a blip in the whole scheme of things, even if it might “feel” like a lifetime while we are going through it).  Surely the BIG question remains about which direction the BTC price is going to break out.. and is it more likely to break up or down.. and when is that going to be happening?


sure


Yes.. differing styles for different folks in terms of how many BTC you are willing to hold, which may end up losing value during BTC price dips.

BTC price performance history has already shown us year after year after year that there ends up being only a few days in each year that you needed to be “in” bitcoin in order to receive the vast majority of the profits for each of the years, and if you were not in it during those periods, your BTC portfolio was likely to have suffered extreme under-performance, so sometimes folks who fuck around with too much of their BTC portfolio end up NOT being sufficiently “in” when they should have been in… and their BTC portfolio ends up considerably underperforming what it should have with a simple HODL strategy rather than a fuck around strategy… not accusing you of “overly fucking around,” yet New.in.trading… even though some of your ideas do appear that you might be contemplating trying to engage in such attempts at timing that might end up NOT working out as well as you anticipated in the event that you are not comfortable with your level of prepared for UP in the event that an somewhat unexpected BTC price jump does end up playing out.



 DD means down?  Of course, we know down can happen any time, so sure, each of us has to figure out how much we might want to balance for that.



 If you believe that there are “no signs that BTC will rise again” currently, you might be missing some signs, perhaps?



 Bitcoin is much more sophisticated than a piece of art, so sure you might be able to put the various factors together and figure out what is the trend, and so it would likely be easier with a piece of art, but sure, there is uncertainty, even with art regarding when the trend might change… I would suggest that shitcoins are likely more like art, but bitcoin has some broader aspects to considering it, in terms of bitcoin being a paradigm shifting protocol that leads the whole sector and the vast and overwhelming majority of various shitcoins and scams are quite a bit dependent on bitcoin in order to retain much if any pumpening value, but bitcoin as a protocol has so much of a lead over any of those other various matters that try to present themselves as equals, but even the newbies buying into the various shit projects and scams in the overall crypto space could bring money into the whole space that ends up gravitating into bitcoin, even if there may be so many factors to attempt to consider beyond merely trying to figure out what is the current BTC momentum and trying to consider whether BTC prices might currently be in a short term correction versus whether if a bear market has actually have been triggered, and if you end up wrongly concluding a bear market when the bear market has not yet come you may well end up not being adequately prepared for the UP that is coming.. and sure ONLY you can decide whether you are adequately prepared for UP, or you want to wait for more signs of UP before you are willing to put money back into bitcoin, and I surely don’t consider it a good idea to wait for a sign, such as breaking above $46k or breaking above $50k before getting back in when you could have bought around 30% more BTC if you had bought in the $34k to $35k price arena rather than waiting for lower BTC prices that end up NOT happening.. balance? Balance, no?  and each of us come to differing conclusions regarding whether if we may have balanced our own situation in ways that are comfortable for our own situations both psychologically and financially.



 Of course, the factors for buying a house are going to be different from bitcoin too both in terms of liquidity but also in terms of how much you are ready, willing and able to be tied down geographically.

Even though I suggest to people investing into bitcoin that they should be considering a minimum of 4 years when they buy into bitcoin from any new purchases of BTC that they make, but at the same time, we know that bitcoin is way more liquid than real estate – so even 1 year into the matter, some people might end up deciding to cash out of bitcoin without as many costs as cashing out of the house that they had chosen to live in. 

We have also already seen that sometimes the level of bitcoin’s liquidity has caused it to have a lot more short term volatility, but surely comparing bitcoin to various other assets, whether we are talking about housing, precious metals (such as gold) or stocks can be never ending in terms of how closely some aspects might align (in terms of momentum) or whether we might be better able to predict momentum changes in one asset versus another or even determine when a price bottom might have already been reached…for that period.



Well you might run out of cash too.  Let’s say for example, you started buying on the dip at around $52k, and then you bought again at various points in the $40ks, and by the time the $30ks came, you ran out of money because you did not consider the BTC price to go that low.  Sure those things can happen, and each person has to figure his/her budgeting including if they are DCAing, buying dips or performing lump sum investing.  They also have to consider if they have enough BTC or if they want more.  Sometimes if they feel that they already have enough BTC they will just HODL through the whole situation, including a 56% (so far) dip.

Getting out would likely be a bad idea.. also selling some now, and hoping to buy more at a lower price might be a bad idea too… but it might not be a bad idea to just keep collecting your cashflow and holding whatever BTC that you had, and if a dip ends up happening, have some varying price points that you may end up buying the BTC price dip from here.. whether you might start buying at $32k and various price points below that or if you believe that you might want the price to go lower or even to considering that you are only going to buy more BTC if the price goes below $25k or even $20k… so surely, people are going to come to differing conclusions regarding that including considering if they should just buy back whatever they already sold, even if they might have sold too much at sub-$30k levels from a couple of weeks ago because they thought that the BTC price was going to go lower, and now they are uncertain about whether the BTC price is really going to go lower – in spite of the so many ongoing seemingly scare tactics and maybe some of the folks are who might be feeling desperate because they sold too much too low of BTC prices and they are worried about whether the BTC price is going to dip below prices in which they had already sold.. too much too low.
 



I doubt that there is any such thing as a “perfect buy spot”, and it seems way safer to try to play these matters incrementally rather than gambling in regards to how low the BTC price might go and when it might go there (and then does it happen? Maybe?  Maybe not?).


 Now might be a good time to buy, depending on your situation, especially if you are either new to bitcoin or you have an inadequate preparation for UP.



Yes, I am going to consider a house or pms differently from how to assess bitcoin, and trend is only one of the factors, and surely we cannot even know whether we are in a downtrend or not, even though we can have presumptions about that, and those presumptions could end up being correct or incorrect, so hopefully no matter what we decide we should be sufficiently and adequately preparing just in case we might be wrong.



Of course, if you have a 50 year timeline you might consider differently than a 4-10 year timeline, so what you are considering for 50 years (which seems a bit ridiculous to be planning too many specifics for that far out, even though you might be able to create some timelines for that far out).

Many times, people might be early into their working lives (or money earning years) and be considering that they might end up working 40 years or more before they are going to be able to stop, but they also might be considering that they might be able to stop working 20 years early if they invest smartly, so frequently there might be some ways to attempt to make plans that are much shorter than 40 years to 50years, but surely, there could be some back up plans that are in place too in case some plans that do not work then you have the back up plans. 

A lot of people are not planning too many specifics even further out than 10 to 20 years, because they surely need to see how the next 10 to 20 years go before they can get into too many specifics in regards to planning after that – even if they might have some foundational aspects in place for those longer timelines.
 

Sure.. maybe it will and maybe it won’t.  Instead of investing 10% or more of your total investment portfolio into bitcoin, you might decide to invest only 1% into bitcoin because you believe it is a long shot, but merely having skepticism seems to justify reducing the amount that you invest rather than refraining from investing, and of course, the longer their timeline that any of us has and the more doubt that we have would justify DCA investing and even possibly lowering the amount of the DCA rather than completely removing DCA investing or saying that you are going to wait and see which you may well never get any kind of decently strong evidence, but if you are sitting back and waiting, then the price might be continuing to go up and you continue to lose opportunities to have been able to accumulate BTC at a lower amounts, even if the lower amounts seem insignificant at the time. 

I recall several times in 2015 having screwed up cashflows, but every once in a while I would get an additional $100 or $200 come in, and I would sometimes BTC when the BTC prices were largely around $250… so $100 would get me around 0.4 BTC or $200 would get me 0.8 BTC, and sure at the time, it seemed like small amounts, but surely that is only 6 years ago, and the amounts are seeming to be quite good, currently, and there were several people telling me that it was dumb to be buying BTC during that time, and it just seemed that BTC prices were in a “downtrend”.  But in the longer term, the relatively conservative and ongoing buying into BTC ended up paying off quite well… even though at the time (in 2015) there was a feeling that there might have been just throwing money into an ongoing black hole that was not likely to hold its value because there was so many failed efforts to move up, and every once in a while pushes downward in the BTC price, including in September/October 2015 when there were pushes down to $200 that ended up never going that low in price ever again (at least not so far).
 




You must be selectively blind, and I am not even going to go into that nonsense assertion of yours.
 



 
Oh gawd.. you are not really making matters better with your claims about what the mainstream might see or not see.. It almost seems as if you are making stupid-ass BIG blocker arguments about bitcoin not being usable for payments, even though selectively ignoring that a whole country is making bitcoin legal tender based on a building of second layer payment systems.

Oh those people or governments do not count because “mainstream” is not talking about it.   


Hm?  Go figure?  I thought that bitcoin’s enforced scarcity was a pretty big deal, but hey, what do know?  Merely because there has never been such an asset that has even come close to bitcoin’s level of scarcity, that’s not important.. it’s just a random unimportant aspect of bitcoin that does not matter… hm?  Who would have thunk?
 



 Sounds like you have devolved into a discussion about NFTs, and even though bitcoin is the best of NFTs, it still has 2.1quadrillion units (aka satoshis) (that could be further subdivided), but hey bitcoin is way more valuable than art in the sense that there are units that can be moved around and we know the value of them (as it changes over time).. and we can transmit them, hold them and they are quite amazingly verifiable, securable, portable, and we may or may not decide to use 3rd party services in our management of them, while some financial institutions and rich people are hoarding them, but what do they know?  I am just going to sit back and fail to accumulate some for myself because I believe that they are not valuable.  Yeah right.




Interesting theory that you have there, New.in.trading…


NOT.




Of course, you can believe that BTC is no different than anything else.  That’s your choice.
 



Well, if you are establishing some kind of a long term plan that is related to BTC, then there should not be any problem in terms of figuring out how much BTC you might want to hold, and how regularly you want to be buying BTC… or even how much cash you might want to keep in reserves in the event that BTC prices drop some more from here.  None of these matters about the future are going to be clearly laid out in terms of providing any kind of road map that any of us might be able to follow in order to prepare ourselves for varying BTC price directions, so I doubt that you should want to regret overly preparing for down, and then it does not happen, so in the end, there ends up being some place that allows you to feel that you did your best in terms of attempting to prepare both psychologically and financially, and maybe some people will never be happy because they will end up second guessing themselves when the BTC price goes contrary to what you had prepared and then you realize that you had unreasonably prepared more for one direction rather than the other.



We are not always going to agree, but hopefully in the end, a bit of back and forth can sometimes help each of us to try to know our selves better so that we can feel more comfortable about our preparations, even if we end up being wrong… which (being wrong) happens to each of us at one point or another.

Fuck that nonsense OOM.

hahahahha
nohomo


Take all these pieces of information with a decently large-ass grain of salt, phillip.

You are making some of the representations as if they are certainties rather than what is being presented as things that are supposedly or could be happening.  But, whatever, you do you...   I surely don't mind the updates.. and I am telling you that I am taking these representations with a decently-sized grain of salt, whether you do so or no.....

Just to put in my superficial 2 satoshis assessment for some members to attempt to identify and appreciate what might be better practices.

If guys are generating income in bitcoin (or even shitcoins that they are cashing into fiat) on a regular basis, it makes quite a bit of sense to set up a regular DCA, whether that be daily, weekly or some other period of time that is reasonable for such a person that is attempting to ongoingly aggressively stack satoshis.  Hopefully, there is no real immediate need to have those dollars to be liquid in the coming years, even if we might consider 4 years as our current considerations for new money that is put into bitcoin.  Of course, there is still some questioning regarding whether our BTC top is yet in for this particular, and sure our current top is $64,895, and of course there is a lot of theorizing (perhaps even the majority of the louder voices that are making such claims that the "top is already in." 

Many of us longer bitcoiners are taking such claims of the "top already being in" with a considerably large grain of salt, even though we are being accused of talking our books too.. so even though none of us really appreciate being accused of talking our books, there still does seem to be a considerable amount of evidence that the fat lady has not yet sung for this particular cycle... but time will tell, won't it.. and we should have some pretty good ideas by the end of this calendar year (and sure we should likely know sooner, but who knows around here), and sure we might not even get confirmation until the next calendar year (referring to 2022), and so I am not going to be surprise about any of those kinds of delayed (pumpening) scenarios playing out and attempts to suggest (or assert) that all previous (and seemingly currently valid) BTC price prediction models are all wrong, but likely when we zoom out and we attempt to see the same picture, we will likely find that the BTC price performance pattern is not really very far off of the currently valid BTC price prediction models, even though we have difficult times being able to figure out where the fuck we are at while we are in the midst of the progress of exponential s-curve adoption or whatever other blah blah blah that happens to be our reality that we are being told is "not happening" - even though it is.  hahhahahaha... sucks to be a no coiner or one of those smarter than everyone else fucktards that are going to end up buying their coins in the supra $200k arena because they thought that $35k was too expensive. 

Just want to also say that regarding the guys who are also pretty big whales, but probably sold too many coins at various points in the $16ks or whatever, sure there might be some regret so you engage in a dollar cost averaging to buy back coins, but part of the fact of the matter still exists that sometimes we may end up selling way too many coins way too soon, and I am not completely sure if DCAing is the resolution of that rather than just living with the consequences of those kinds of earlier sales.  Each of us should be trying to figure these matters out for ourselves, and I do understand that sometimes even mistakes that I have made along the way such as not securing some of my coins well enough end up in real BIG losses, but in the end, some of the other aspects of BTC prices going up 5x or 6x and then correcting to ONLY 3.5x correction zone can make even large mistakes (such as losing 30% or more of your BTC stash) showing your overall BTC collection as still profitable, because instead of being 3.5x in profits with BTC prices in the $34ks to $35ks, you are ONLY 2x in profits (or something like that).  I guess my point is that sometimes mistakes are made and guys might be profitable as fuck, but might be trying to hold themselves out as a kind of genius, but bitcoin's level of profitability does cause a lot of us appear to be kind of like geniuses even though we made a lot of mistakes along the way that should not really be considered best practices, but might be a decently adequate mitigating of losses approach given whatever mistakes that we had made earlier. 

Hopefully, many of us are here to try to learn from our mistakes and the mistakes of others in order to lessen the likelihood that we are making mistakes, even though we may well not be able to eliminate all of our ongoing mistakes - even here there may be some guys who are way more allocated in cash than they should be because they are placing a higher than rational probability that BTC is going to go below $20k or something like that, and even though they would become quite well off if BTC prices do actually go below $20k, they are likely putting too much value on that bet which causes their play to be more like gambling on down rather than adequately pee paring their lil selfies for UP... which has tended to be a common mistake in times like these...

I spoke to an admittedly no-coiner in-law of mine in the past couple of days and we came to a bit of a logger head when he actually admitted that he was a no-coiner, but he bragged about getting into BTC and various shitcoins at around $20k (and thinking that he may have been more heavily into shitcoins, but kind of avoiding getting into too many specifics with him because he did say he gained on some lost  on some but overall he had gained) and then he got out in the $50ks or something and he is feeling so smart because he is purporting to NOT be in anything - even though I told him that I don't play like that and I am in bitcoin and have a long term approach.. but sure he will be feeling smug if the BTC prices go down to sub $25k or whatever might happen to be his reentrance price point, or maybe a passage of time in the $35ks of 6 months or more, he might be willing to get back in at $30k.. because he is so smart, you know. .. so then when I am just sitting back and just HODLing my BTC and they might be going down in value if the price drops, he is not worried about the price dropping, but he has no current level of preparation for UP, and he does not feel any strong urge to prepare for UP either because he has got a vision that may well end up playing out and cause him to be able to get more bang for his buck and in the meantime have more assurance that when he does actually get back in  that his bet on UP at that point is going to be solid... so I cannot proclaim that I know, except to say that a lot of smarter than everyone else have missed out on profitable bitcoin days (which might not be too many per year) when they wait out matters.. and from $10k to $20k was no laughing matter to say that you got in at $20k rather than already having had been in at $10k.. so the future can play out in ways that we are not really able to tell at this point, but we have seen bitcoin go on an upward tear, and before you know it sub $50k is not possible anymore even though we have already been floating in the mid $35ks for more than 6 weeks already (which can end up being a blip of time in the whole scheme of things).

I am going to make a humble estimation that there were probably more than 14 new merit sources - perhaps even double that number.  So perhaps around 28 new merit sources.. perhaps?  Perhaps?

Fun to speculate sometimes - unless anyone can show a statement from theymos or some kinds of facts that undermine my speculative inferences.  Go on.  I challenge you (not referring to you specifically tranthidung, or any other specific member) to show some evidence or make some logical inferences that are more convincing than the ones that I am attempting (and not even claiming that mine are that great.. but I am giving it a shot (see below)).

I am going to speculate that theymos removed any prior merit source who was not spending more than a certain quantity of their source merits per month (let's say less than 10 smerits per month or maybe less than 10% of their source merits on a regular basis.. whichever is causing theymos to conclude that the merit source is not sufficiently active in distributing smerits).  

I understand that many of us would like to conclude that theymos would have either removed merit sources who were abusing their ways of spending their smerit, or alternatively he could reduce their number of smerits per month or just keep it the same depending on what kinds of meaningful and reliable inferences that he could reach from looking at their smerit sending practices and any reports of abuse that he may have received over the years in respect to certain merit sources.

Probably not always easy for him to conclude exactly whether some smerits might have been sent for either bad motives or just derelict of duties type reasons - even though a lot of discretion is left with merit sources regarding how to send smerits, how many to send and what might trigger sending versus not sending and how much of a duty any merit source might have to expand his/her going outside of his/her usual circles (threads)..

Even though I have not seen any place that theymos has recently described his process, I would imagine from some of his previous disclosures in that direction, that he had at least taken the opportunity to perform at least some cursory overview of the past practices of each of the existing merit sources and any of the members that he had considered to add to smerit source status.  Of course, the conclusions that he reached may have come out different from the conclusions that others had made, and sure after a few months of putting these new smerit allocations into practice, we may be able to see some kinds of patterns above and beyond the admissions of forum members regarding which members have been added as merit sources and which ones had been removed - and some of that data will be assisted by some of the group sourcing kind of work and analysis of some of our fellow data crunching forum members to help some of us more technologically-challenged (perhaps dumber? including yours truly) ones to figure out some of the merit source changes from yesterday that have been made to the merit source members.

Another thing, since I have not seen any post in which theymos had announced and/or described the specifics of the changes to the smerit source matter, would be that theymos could perhaps have some follow up tweaks that he might want to make to the smerit source matter in the next month or two.. but you never know and we may well end up with whatever fairly significant changes that were made yesterday to get us by for the next year or two.. remember the significant changes to merit sources had gone around 20 months between changes from this one yesterday on July 7 since the most recent major and significant one that had taken place in around mid-November 2019.  I cannot really disagree with any conclusion regarding "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," even if some members may have tweaked in some different ways to attempt to address issues that they perceive to be in need of fixing.. but they have evidence that may well be different from the evidence that theymos looks at (which I would speculate that member reports or even just being able to see which member sources are spending their smerits and also how many smerits they are spending on a monthly basis might be more accessible to theymos - even though some of us could look at some of that data too if we are able to perform some calculations or just look at the data produced by some of our data crunching forum members).

Maybe there are three or four options for ATH considerations for this cycle?

1) $64,895 as top for this cycle

2) Sub-$100k as top for this cycle

3) Between $100k and $288k as top for this cycle

4) Supra-$288k as top for this cycle (maybe as high as $1.5 million, perhaps?  a real outlier).

I am not even having much of a clue for how long any of the scenarios could take to playout, because it could take several more months to get back into the supra $50k price arena in order to break back above $64,895 (presuming that we get to those points). so we could have a few decently-sized correction before even getting above $64,895 and even sub $100k (presuming that we get to those points).. but probably breaking above $100k would cause a bit of an UPpity free flow, if it were to occur this cycle.. either this year or dragging out into 2022.. possibly as late as the third quarter (though admittedly the third quarter would be getting quite late for the cycle to still have UPpity momentum).


Who made their spending numbers?

I understand how any of us might consider how those flow through BTC matter, but in some sense, they really do not - except perhaps to establish that some of us may have had access to BTC, and even a decent number of BTC to flow through our various accounts, but in the end, the ultimate decision still remains concerning which form of currency any of us chose to spend first - and whether we might have been reasonably capable of hanging onto a few more BTC.

The punchline does remain the punchline, and that is how many BTC that you decided to hang onto, and if you did spend some BTC, did you replace those in a timely manner or consider that maybe you will replace them later if the BTC prices drop, and the BTC price never did drop.

I recall some time in mid-to-late 2015, Circle had instituted a policy in which they allowed you to convert your whole BTC balance to dollars,. which was kind of weird and even a bit deceptive, and I know a couple of people who were adversely affected by that policy.  

One person accidentally clicked that button at around $225 per BTC, and had not realized that all the BTC had been sold at that price (and just thought that it was to show the BTC balance in dollars), and I said "holy fucking shit"  what the hell did you get into BTC for, if you are just going to sell them all at a whim.. It is not like you have that many BTC anyhow.. (something like 20 BTC).  Within a few days the person did convert the whole account back from dollars to BTC.. .so maybe there was a loss of a few dollars per BTC.

The second person heard about my story regarding what the first person had done, and when BTC prices went from $250 to $500 in October/November 2015, that person decided to convert the whole Circle account (of about 17 BTC) at $350.... Crazy.. that person never had 17 BTC ever again.. funny that... Selling too many too low does have a very strong psychological affect on people, and no one really wants to buy back BTC that they sold for a higher price.. for a certain amount of time that person 2 was a no coiner, and I was continuing to chide about the situation of not having enough coins and not being prepared for UP.. so at some point around the lower $400s, a decent amount of those sold coins were bought back, maybe around 12 BTC or something like that.. or maybe it was even a wee bit below 10 BTC..

If you believe that people are hesitant about getting into BTC, these days, I find very few changes in overall what real people are doing or they are inclined to do.. and many times one of the principle ways that they start to get excited about possibly investing into bitcoin is when they discover some kind of an edge that exists with some cheaper variation (and yeah, maybe part of the reason that institutions and well to do peeps are starting to get a bit of an edge in terms of sucking up the BTC supply because once the lightbulb goes on for the well to do person, they start to buy way more than their fair share of BTC... so even though retail has a lot of advantage in not being blocked from being able to buy into bitcoin and being able to front run institutions and rich people, they are still having troubles looking a gift horse in the face and actually figuring out that they still be sufficiently early).

Ultimately we cannot be acting like we do not understand the ramifications of spending some of our BTC at various points historically, and sure after the fact, we realize that we were too chicken shit and we realize that we got more pleasure by locking in our dollar profits rather than boring deferring of gratification.  We are not going to live forever, right?  It's better to enjoy hookers when we can still self-stimulate rather than being too old, right?



Of course, there is balance.  I spent a lot of money on my education, and I believe that it was well worth it, because even though I have some tendencies to be stubborn, the various skills that I learned in college relating to learning how to learn really have paid off several times, even though my central goal was not even making money, I just wanted to be a more rounded person and able to relate to people from a variety of backgrounds which can be improved through schooling.. believe it or no.. and for sure people are going to come to differing calculations regarding the value of education and/or what skills that they might need to learn.. and even recognizing that they do not know what they do not know - and even question if the degree or the certification or the training ended up paying for itself or not, those remain personal choices in terms of spending capital (and time) in that direction.


Well the reward was 50 BTC until about late 2012.. so surely, another challenge would have been to hold some decent portion of the BTC through the two exponential BTC price rise periods in 2013..  Lots of people have trouble figuring out the balance of how much value to hold and how to hold it and they want to lock in some profits... for sure.  I recall even when some of my US Govt bonds had matured 5-10 years later (after purchase), and instead of reinvesting them (perhaps into a better performing asset), I some times would plug them into my consumption, and that shows some of my own problems in terms of really being able to continue to let an investment portfolio build when value has built up in such investment portfolio.

And, then if you had been able to HODL your BTC (100 BTC or perhaps more) through 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, what would have been your ability to HODL fate in 2017?  Seemingly another good selling opportunity when we are thinking in terms of fiat, but at what price woudl have come the sale (at $3k?  $7k? $10k?  $14k? or $19,666? - never going to completely get the top, right?), and how much of it to sell, too.. ? one thing being in the midst of it, and another thing looking at the whole matter retrospectively.


good fortune for some of the folks mining back then, even if they might have ONLY been able to hang onto a fraction of their coins.


Hahahaha.. another sacrifice (the noise, the heat and likely the energy consumption), even though the lights look pretty.


For sure, we are still early boyz!!!    


It is still early boyz!!!!!!!!   especially for us who already know about BTC and we have our various modes to buy (or earn) BTC.. and we also have been studying the space too (including knowing about various ways to liquidate some or all of our BTC, and maybe also why we might well decide to spend from some of our other funds and resources before going below a certain level of BTC quantity, if possible and feasible).

 


Exactamente..!!!!!!

JS

it is still early boyz.

Gather what you can.. whether it is 0.21 BTC, 1 BTC, 2 BTC, 5 BTC, 10 BTC or some other reasonble, feasible and/or practically and prudently reachable amount... that may well be within your reach and harder to reach now than it might have had been a few years ago, but it is not easy to even attempt to turn back the clock, except maybe to learn how we might have done our accumulation MOAR better and perhaps chosen to HODL rather than SODL when push had come to shove, no?


We might consider that it is difficult to accumulate 0.21BTC now, 1 BTC now or even 2  BTC now, and maybe at some relatively near point in the future.. supra $100k or whatever, it may be even difficult to be trying to accumulate 0.021BTC or .1BTC.. or whatever the reasonable, feasible and prudently reachable BTC accumulation targets might need to transition into.

What about your concerns regarding the possible correlation of bitcoin to wall street control mechanisms?

Aren't you still worried about that?  You seemed to have been worried a few days ago regarding the wallstreet control of bitcoin matter, no?  

Surely you could not have changed your mind so quickly in regards to your wallstreet buddies (maybe not kissing cousin kind of buddies, but still), pulling the various strings and telling king daddy which direction to go and how long to stay there?  amiNOTrite?

 


Of course, Opsec should be considered when getting into these kinds of details to the extent to which any of the details are going to be necessary in order to make such points or to describe varying dilemmas that might be present for one person as compared with another.


We are probably not too far apart on this matter, yet I seem to be way more willing to beat up on shitcoins as a purposefully intended kind of default mode as compared with you, so I suppose my default willing, ready and able to beat up on shitcoins (even if the poor lil tingilies might not deserve it.. probably not) might be the crux of where we differ in shitcoinery 101 (or shitcoinery for a real bitcoin maximalist).  In other words, when in doubt, beat up on shitcoins and do not stop until each and every single lil one of the little devils is not only dead, but more than dead (which is most likely a life-long project from here on out.. those ever coming back zombie fucktwats).

So, especially in a thread like this, I see absolutely no reason to say anything nice or talk about any kind of positive benefits that comes from masterbating, even if many of us (royal, perhaps?) do it... sorry to drag the matter into the sewer.. but it just popped into my head (the big one, no homo).