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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368509 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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July 09, 2021, 01:01:27 AM


Explanation
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July 09, 2021, 01:10:14 AM

buddy holding the wood at 32.4k+

and the diff has shifted upwards a bit which may be a good thing.
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July 09, 2021, 01:12:05 AM


Gosh... I didn't even get triggered, or did I?

Speaking of the BTC price:

As I type we seem to be dippenning and pushing upon low $32ks.... perhaps?  Perhaps?

What to do peeps?

Cry?

Or something else?

Noticing that same Downward pressure that hit last night has kicked up (or should I say down)again tonight. Started about 2-3 hours later though.
If it Does swing us down another $3k (even better $4k) I'll pick up a nice haul of cheap corn from Limit Buys placed weeks ago! And as an added bonus, may even test my theory as to whether a scoop down to about $27.5k - $28k would pick up the momentum needed to finally shoot up past the $42k wall!

Just hiding and watching, will be happy with the results regardless of where it takes us!
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July 09, 2021, 01:15:10 AM



Guess it's a good thing neither of us depends on our comedy routines to pay the bills, eh?

\__/ To better days and higher numbers!


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July 09, 2021, 01:31:55 AM

Just hiding and watching, will be happy with the results regardless of where it takes us!

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July 09, 2021, 01:52:47 AM


Gosh... I didn't even get triggered, or did I?

Speaking of the BTC price:

As I type we seem to be dippenning and pushing upon low $32ks.... perhaps?  Perhaps?

What to do peeps?

Cry?

Or something else?

Noticing that same Downward pressure that hit last night has kicked up (or should I say down)again tonight. Started about 2-3 hours later though.
If it Does swing us down another $3k (even better $4k) I'll pick up a nice haul of cheap corn from Limit Buys placed weeks ago! And as an added bonus, may even test my theory as to whether a scoop down to about $27.5k - $28k would pick up the momentum needed to finally shoot up past the $42k wall!

Just hiding and watching, will be happy with the results regardless of where it takes us!

Well, I am glad that you are asserting that you are happy regardless of price direction.. and I surely have my hesitancies to proclaim that I have any kind of clue regarding whether any further down might be needed or inevitable or whatever.... we have frequently seen the "down before up" proclamations NOT end up playing out.... so frequently when anyone is proclaiming that we "have to" go down before up, that gives me some sense that they are not really as prepared for UP as they might be making themselves out to be.. but to each their own.   The down before up are probably not less than 50/50 even though we have already had down to 56% correction and even though we have already been bouncing around in the lower $30ks for a considerable amount of time.

In my thinking, the truly neutral position for anyone who happens to be sufficiently and adequately "invested in bitcoin" is going to be biased towards up, but willing, ready and able to take advantage of down, if such down were to happen rather than be appearing to be wishing for down.. but hey.. I have seen plenty of down-wishers in my bitcoin days.. and a good number of them proclaim to be bitcoin bulls.. even one who has a name that has bio in the beginning and ends with an m... not saying that he is the ONLY one who happens to have a frequent practice of being a down-wisher, but he loves when I talk about him.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

In other words, seem to me that anyone who invests into something (whether we are talking about bitcoin or anything else) should be shooting for the price to go up, rather than down (especially after it already did a 56% correction).. but whatever, peeps are gonna peep... I suppose.
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July 09, 2021, 01:57:27 AM

So if any of your friends, family members, or colleagues favor X/Y/Z shitcoin du jour over Bitcoin, just point them to this thread:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/og5u6m/its_official_nano_is_no_longer_among_the_top_100/

That's hilarious. Many threads I read on Twitter have someone pumping $nano.
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July 09, 2021, 02:01:26 AM


Explanation
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July 09, 2021, 02:20:44 AM

If 'they' are setting up ~32K to be like 6.5K in 2018, then my calculations and approximations (from proportionally reduced plunges) give a bottom at 20-21K (the exact number is about 20.5K, but the whole thing is a projection and unlikely to exactly "fit").
It could be just a wick. I can handle this price without being upset.

Of course, if we go there, it means that we were in the bear market and then we would start recovering, hopefully.
It would also mean that the whole cycle was front run on the bull side.
Next cycle might not even be a real cycle since the impact of halving would be smaller and other factors (adoption) could become more important.
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July 09, 2021, 02:27:06 AM
Merited by sirazimuth (1)

....
... ponder this, ....


Ok,  I just pondered that bro. Honestly, I don't think I'll lose any sleep over it....

....Oh that reminds me!...gotta go work on the new mix down of an old band recording titled "Paranoid Delusions"......

... seriously I wouldn't bother if I was you, your music and song-writing sucks, but if it makes you happy, I'm not your master

... or maybe make one "Propaganda for the People"? give you a warm-fuzzy feeling inside knowing you got the gubmints back?
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July 09, 2021, 02:27:49 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2)


Gosh... I didn't even get triggered, or did I?

Speaking of the BTC price:

As I type we seem to be dippenning and pushing upon low $32ks.... perhaps?  Perhaps?

What to do peeps?

Cry?

Or something else?

Noticing that same Downward pressure that hit last night has kicked up (or should I say down)again tonight. Started about 2-3 hours later though.
If it Does swing us down another $3k (even better $4k) I'll pick up a nice haul of cheap corn from Limit Buys placed weeks ago! And as an added bonus, may even test my theory as to whether a scoop down to about $27.5k - $28k would pick up the momentum needed to finally shoot up past the $42k wall!

Just hiding and watching, will be happy with the results regardless of where it takes us!

Well, I am glad that you are asserting that you are happy regardless of price direction.. and I surely have my hesitancies to proclaim that I have any kind of clue regarding whether any further down might be needed or inevitable or whatever.... we have frequently seen the "down before up" proclamations NOT end up playing out.... so frequently when anyone is proclaiming that we "have to" go down before up, that gives me some sense that they are not really as prepared for UP as they might be making themselves out to be.. but to each their own.   The down before up are probably not less than 50/50 even though we have already had down to 56% correction and even though we have already been bouncing around in the lower $30ks for a considerable amount of time.

In my thinking, the truly neutral position for anyone who happens to be sufficiently and adequately "invested in bitcoin" is going to be biased towards up, but willing, ready and able to take advantage of down, if such down were to happen rather than be appearing to be wishing for down.. but hey.. I have seen plenty of down-wishers in my bitcoin days.. and a good number of them proclaim to be bitcoin bulls.. even one who has a name that has bio in the beginning and ends with an m... not saying that he is the ONLY one who happens to have a frequent practice of being a down-wisher, but he loves when I talk about him.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

In other words, seem to me that anyone who invests into something (whether we are talking about bitcoin or anything else) should be shooting for the price to go up, rather than down (especially after it already did a 56% correction).. but whatever, peeps are gonna peep... I suppose.

As you know, I've only been actively investing for about 5 weeks now, and you Nailed it! I'd certainly love the opportunity to grab some cheap coins because I certainly don't believe I "have enough". But I believe I have done about the best as can be expected in 5 weeks and limited capital invested. And truth be told, if I never make a dime off of it, life is good, so who gives a fly flipping fuck?
I just noted, there seems to be a significant number of people interested in buying but keeping their money's on 5he sidelines waiting for that magic number. Whether right or wrong, they're there... they exist. So as I'm looking at the order books, I noted there's a significant jump in the orders from 200 up to 5000 by the time it gets down to $28k and up to 8000 bids by $25k and my suspicion is that a significant majority of those bids, if filled, would hold at least until the $75k range, and probably as high as $100k. So if all those lowball buyers jumped into the market, I expect it would cause a lot of upward momentum. And if that upward momentum took us past $42k you'd see a lot of additional FOMO buyers jumping in to carry us higher. Meanwhile I'd be holding my meager stack of SATS and making my more insignificant weekly DCA buys while waiting for the next crash so I can see what the new bottom is and start buying dips again.

All told, it's a fun ride regardless of whether you watch from the front, middle, or back... at least you're not watching it go by from the ground.
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July 09, 2021, 02:28:50 AM
Last edit: July 09, 2021, 02:53:22 AM by sirazimuth

....
... ponder this, ....


Ok,  I just pondered that bro. Honestly, I don't think I'll lose any sleep over it....

....Oh that reminds me!...gotta go work on the new mix down of an old band recording titled "Paranoid Delusions"......

... seriously I wouldn't bother if I was you, your music and song-writing sucks, but if it makes you happy, I'm not your master

... or maybe make one "Propaganda for the People"? give you a warm-fuzzy feeling inside knowing you got the gubmints back?

I love winding you up bro!

Come on now dude...my song writing is at least as good as those historic equations you develop....

Also, its cool to get honest criticism.
Albeit, I'd be really concerned if someone of your mentality actually liked my material.


JayJuanGee
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July 09, 2021, 02:43:55 AM

If 'they' are setting up ~32K to be like 6.5K in 2018, then my calculations and approximations (from proportionally reduced plunges) give a bottom at 20-21K (the exact number is about 20.5K, but the whole thing is a projection and unlikely to exactly "fit").
It could be just a wick. I can handle this price without being upset.

There is nothing wrong to expect that this kind of correction could happen, but surely there is a difference between having a wick and having a 3 month or more lagging down at those lower levels.

So, it is kind of difficult to suggest what the significance of such a dip would be without figuring out either how long the price would stay down there and if the price would thereafter recover and reach new highs and how long that might take.

Of course, if we go there, it means that we were in the bear market and then we would start recovering, hopefully.

You seem to be presuming too much about what the significance of such a price drop would be.

You also seem to be presuming that the stock to flow model is irrelevant as well.

Lot of presumptions in what you are saying while seeming to fail and refuse to account for what BTC actually is, including to but not limited to failing to adequately account for its various ongoing and currently credible price models.


It would also mean that the whole cycle was front run on the bull side.


Huh?  I don't know about that.

We had one baby front run which was the 3.5x price rise from April to June 2019.. and then we got this second front run of 6.5x from September to April... so kind of hard for you to be prematurely proclaiming that you know what it all means, even if we were to get a dip down to the lower $20ks.. and especially that you are not even specifying any kind of different analysis in regards to if we were to have a wick versus a longer term stagnation in the lower $20ks... couple of different scenarios.. and probably both of those scenarios would accompany a purging of some froth in the shitcoin space.. but I am not even sure if a purging of froth is necessary in that kind of way or if such a purging would even cause BTC prices to inevitably drop.. .. too many possible factors for this here cat to be making broad and sweeping proclamations in regards to significance.. when probably more importantly would be to start from the currently valid BTC price prediction models such as stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption and figure out if any of those models are either broken or in need of tweaking and to proceed with any kind of analysis while taking those three models into account rather than just making up your own shit that seems to either not even account for those three models or to cursorily presume that the three models are broken or irrelevant.


Next cycle might not even be a real cycle since the impact of halving would be smaller and other factors (adoption) could become more important.

You seem to be getting ahead of ur lil selfie... we have not even gotten out of this four year cycle and you are jumping into the next one.  hahahahaha.. you are full of desires to paint your own picture forward, which is probably even more likely to be correct since, like I already mentioned, you are not even hardly accounting for seemingly currently valid BTC price models... shouldn't that be called rolling your own model?
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July 09, 2021, 02:44:07 AM

..... I had a reply typed up but what's the point, I'm not going to (and not trying to) change anyone's mind here and it's decidedly off topic.

Let's get back to bitching about China and Elon whatshisname.

Off topic in the Wob??  I didn't think that was possible.
As long as you are not a cryptonian alt, I think you're good.
Mind you, mentioning the word "c****o" might irritate jay, causing him to spout lots of wordenings...

Gosh... I didn't even get triggered, or did I?

Speaking of the BTC price:

As I type we seem to be dippenning and pushing upon low $32ks.... perhaps?  Perhaps?

What to do peeps?

Cry?

Or something else?

32K is Adam's number so it is appropriate we should form a solid base here ... he's probably the one doing all the dumping now his target is met
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July 09, 2021, 02:55:19 AM

~

Seems unnecessary. I don't think anti-vaxxer maps have NZ.

Loading...

Somehow I think you knew I was gonna merit that.
So I did because well...I don't think you have enough...

I also merited my brother marcus...so there is that....

(ironically, I really do have a brother Marcus irl...we used to have farting competitions... but I digress...)

GO BITCOIN

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July 09, 2021, 03:01:35 AM


Explanation
ChartBuddy
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July 09, 2021, 05:01:27 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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July 09, 2021, 05:08:08 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1)

[edited out]

As you know, I've only been actively investing for about 5 weeks now, and you Nailed it! I'd certainly love the opportunity to grab some cheap coins because I certainly don't believe I "have enough".

Why don't we put this into context?  You are admittedly a newbie in bitcoin, and you come into a long term bitcoin thread, and you want to root for downity bitcoin prices, merely because you are a newbie and you do not have enough coins.

Does that make much sense to you?

I remember in 2014 there were members rooting for down, and the BTC price kept going down, and then when the price got to the bottom, some of those members rooting for down disappeared..

Does it make any sense for the bitcoin price to go down several thousand more dollars and for you to merely pick up .015BTC, and the rest of us suffer thousands (or even million dollars) of lost value "on paper" in order for you to buy measly amounts of bitcoin?



But I believe I have done about the best as can be expected in 5 weeks and limited capital invested. And truth be told, if I never make a dime off of it, life is good, so who gives a fly flipping fuck?

If you are in it for the long term, then it could take several cycles before you really feel like you have both built a meaningful stash and that you are quite a bit in comfortable profits... of course, mileage is going to vary in terms of when those tipping points take place... for example, going from a beggar to a mediumly comfortable to feeling almost rich to feeling rich to feeling fuck you rich status to feeling filthy wealthy.. and sure not everyone is going to be able to reach the highest of the stages.


I just noted, there seems to be a significant number of people interested in buying but keeping their money's on 5he sidelines waiting for that magic number.

Those people might get stuck chasing the train while they drop their luggage.. and so what, the train is not going to stop for their greedy and non-prepared lil asses.

Whether right or wrong, they're there... they exist.

There are always going to be some people who are failing and refusing to act.. and some of them don't even set up an account so that they are able to have a vehicle through which they are going to be able to act.


So as I'm looking at the order books, I noted there's a significant jump in the orders from 200 up to 5000 by the time it gets down to $28k and up to 8000 bids by $25k and my suspicion is that a significant majority of those bids, if filled, would hold at least until the $75k range, and probably as high as $100k. So if all those lowball buyers jumped into the market, I expect it would cause a lot of upward momentum. And if that upward momentum took us past $42k you'd see a lot of additional FOMO buyers jumping in to carry us higher. Meanwhile I'd be holding my meager stack of SATS and making my more insignificant weekly DCA buys while waiting for the next crash so I can see what the new bottom is and start buying dips again.

Well do what you can do.... rooting for down does not seem that great of a line to be using in these here parts.

All told, it's a fun ride regardless of whether you watch from the front, middle, or back... at least you're not watching it go by from the ground.

It is still early days, so there are a whole hell of a lot of people and institutions and governments who have hardly any exposure at all to this asset class... so surely it should feel good to have some insight into the matter and to have some systems set up to buy what you can and attempt to buy on dips or whatever when new cash comes in, so that you continue to have some kinds of advantages.  Sure, even when bitcoin gets to be $100k or $200k and you might only have a few coins, there might be some newbies coming into bitcoin and buying 100s or even 1,000s of coins, and you feel like a small potato relatively speaking, but that just seems to be part of the ongoing likely dynamic of this asset class whether it gets to $200k this cycle or it takes another cycle to get there.

..... I had a reply typed up but what's the point, I'm not going to (and not trying to) change anyone's mind here and it's decidedly off topic.

Let's get back to bitching about China and Elon whatshisname.

Off topic in the Wob??  I didn't think that was possible.
As long as you are not a cryptonian alt, I think you're good.
Mind you, mentioning the word "c****o" might irritate jay, causing him to spout lots of wordenings...

Gosh... I didn't even get triggered, or did I?

Speaking of the BTC price:

As I type we seem to be dippenning and pushing upon low $32ks.... perhaps?  Perhaps?

What to do peeps?

Cry?

Or something else?

32K is Adam's number so it is appropriate we should form a solid base here ... he's probably the one doing all the dumping now his target is met

I speculate that Adam had a mental breakdown, and he was surely distracted by BIGblocker nonsense for a decently long period of time, so I wonder how many coins that he was able to hang onto, rather than getting distracted into various shitcoins... but sure, hopefully he did not fuck his lil selfie too badly with the varying lackenings of focus that especially seemed to have come around the time that he lost his account here (wasn't that early 2017?), and then he failed/refused to get it back because he had too much pride..

So at least, richie_T (not meaning to overly drag in another BIG blocker sympathizer) did not go that far and seemed to have hung onto chartbuddy (and some BTC, too) and his willingness to put up with us shitheads around here (in the WO thread).. thanks richie and thanks chart buddy (fellow bot - no homo).
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July 09, 2021, 05:42:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

You know what's weird?

Bitcointalk is blocked in China, but bitcoin.org isn't.

https://www.comparitech.com/privacy-security-tools/blockedinchina/

Kinda weird.
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July 09, 2021, 05:54:37 AM

Evolution can't go wrong.

But, evolution has a goal: survival of the fittest.

We think we can influence evolution. Condoms, contraceptives and vaccines are some of our supposed influences. But, they are not really influences, because this is all part of evolution. We are all in the same system. Being smart and capable enough to invent the condom and develop contraceptives and vaccines is part of our own evolution. Evolution has brought us this far, and has favored these choices.

The fittest shall survive, while the weakest shall perish. Deal with it.
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