[edite out]
Dude, thank you very much for your answer! It really took me a while to read it, but is worth the read! You mention some very good points. Problem with BTC to me, is the volatility at times.
Probably one of the greatest likelihoods in bitcoin is that it is going to be ongoingly volatile - even though there are also likely going to be periods of BTC's price moving within a range, so we are not always going to know either how long the ranging will last, when the BTC price will break out or the direction of the BTC price break out, but most likely the range is not going to last for more than a year... but even that is not guaranteed...
BTC's price was pretty much ranging in through $250 for 10 months in 2015 (mostly from $220-ish to $280-ish, with a few breakouts in the midst of that).. and this particular cycle (referring to our being in a bull market since April 2019), so far, we have not had any BTC price ranging that has lasted more than 5-6 months, so surely we could enter into another one of those periods in which we are stuck in a narrow range for a decently long period of time, but I am having quite a few doubts that we will be hanging around these $30ks for anywhere even close to 5-6 months, especially that I am still working with an underlying presumption that we are likely continuing to be in a bull market, until the facts and logic start to have stronger inferences that we are no longer in a bull market, and I personally do not like to make presumptions on what has already happened, including the fact that we have had around a 56% price correction during what we had already considered to be a bull market and the mere fact of a 56% price correction (so far) does not convince me that we are yet outside of the bull market (conclude whatever you like, but that ongoing bull market continues to be my ongoing conclusion until shown otherwise from further facts/logic).
So, of course, even though anything is possible, we have already been in this particular price range of the mid-$30s-ish for around 6-7 weeks (which may well be considered a blip in the whole scheme of things, even if it might “feel” like a lifetime while we are going through it). Surely the BIG question remains about which direction the BTC price is going to break out.. and is it more likely to break up or down.. and when is that going to be happening?
Lets go step by step..
sure
Even I assume
BTCUSD is in a downtrend, I am not shorting/selling it. I am only waiting for signs that price will rise, and then a confirmation.
Yes.. differing styles for different folks in terms of how many BTC you are willing to hold, which may end up losing value during BTC price dips.
BTC price performance history has already shown us year after year after year that there ends up being only a few days in each year that you needed to be “in” bitcoin in order to receive the vast majority of the profits for each of the years, and if you were not in it during those periods, your BTC portfolio was likely to have suffered extreme under-performance, so sometimes folks who fuck around with too much of their BTC portfolio end up NOT being sufficiently “in” when they should have been in… and their BTC portfolio ends up considerably underperforming what it should have with a simple HODL strategy rather than a fuck around strategy… not accusing you of “overly fucking around,” yet New.in.trading… even though some of your ideas do appear that you might be contemplating trying to engage in such attempts at timing that might end up NOT working out as well as you anticipated in the event that you are not comfortable with your level of prepared for UP in the event that an somewhat unexpected BTC price jump does end up playing out.
Price could still turn over again hard and I am then caught in deep DD. Might happen.
DD means down? Of course, we know down can happen any time, so sure, each of us has to figure out how much we might want to balance for that.
But to me it simply makes no sense to buy something, when it price is falling and there are no signs that it will rise again.
If you believe that there are “no signs that BTC will rise again” currently, you might be missing some signs, perhaps?
I would not buy a piece of art, if its price is only falling.
Bitcoin is much more sophisticated than a piece of art, so sure you might be able to put the various factors together and figure out what is the trend, and so it would likely be easier with a piece of art, but sure, there is uncertainty, even with art regarding when the trend might change… I would suggest that shitcoins are likely more like art, but bitcoin has some broader aspects to considering it, in terms of bitcoin being a paradigm shifting protocol that leads the whole sector and the vast and overwhelming majority of various shitcoins and scams are quite a bit dependent on bitcoin in order to retain much if any pumpening value, but bitcoin as a protocol has so much of a lead over any of those other various matters that try to present themselves as equals, but even the newbies buying into the various shit projects and scams in the overall crypto space could bring money into the whole space that ends up gravitating into bitcoin, even if there may be so many factors to attempt to consider beyond merely trying to figure out what is the current BTC momentum and trying to consider whether BTC prices might currently be in a short term correction versus whether if a bear market has actually have been triggered, and if you end up wrongly concluding a bear market when the bear market has not yet come you may well end up not being adequately prepared for the UP that is coming.. and sure ONLY you can decide whether you are adequately prepared for UP, or you want to wait for more signs of UP before you are willing to put money back into bitcoin, and I surely don’t consider it a good idea to wait for a sign, such as breaking above $46k or breaking above $50k before getting back in when you could have bought around 30% more BTC if you had bought in the $34k to $35k price arena rather than waiting for lower BTC prices that end up NOT happening.. balance? Balance, no? and each of us come to differing conclusions regarding whether if we may have balanced our own situation in ways that are comfortable for our own situations both psychologically and financially.
I would not buy a house in an area, where prices are only falling for the last years... Not because I think its not worth it, but only because it puts me in a worse situation, then if I simply sit it out and wait.
Of course, the factors for buying a house are going to be different from bitcoin too both in terms of liquidity but also in terms of how much you are ready, willing and able to be tied down geographically.
Even though I suggest to people investing into bitcoin that they should be considering a minimum of 4 years when they buy into bitcoin from any new purchases of BTC that they make, but at the same time, we know that bitcoin is way more liquid than real estate – so even 1 year into the matter, some people might end up deciding to cash out of bitcoin without as many costs as cashing out of the house that they had chosen to live in.
We have also already seen that sometimes the level of bitcoin’s liquidity has caused it to have a lot more short term volatility, but surely comparing bitcoin to various other assets, whether we are talking about housing, precious metals (such as gold) or stocks can be never ending in terms of how closely some aspects might align (in terms of momentum) or whether we might be better able to predict momentum changes in one asset versus another or even determine when a price bottom might have already been reached…for that period.
Yes I am only holding a minimum of BTC atm, as I dont think one should buy every dip.
If you do so, you end up buying a potential downtrend, what causes you to look at the screen and see only red numbers, what again results in doubts of your investment.
Well you might run out of cash too. Let’s say for example, you started buying on the dip at around $52k, and then you bought again at various points in the $40ks, and by the time the $30ks came, you ran out of money because you did not consider the BTC price to go that low. Sure those things can happen, and each person has to figure his/her budgeting including if they are DCAing, buying dips or performing lump sum investing. They also have to consider if they have enough BTC or if they want more. Sometimes if they feel that they already have enough BTC they will just HODL through the whole situation, including a 56% (so far) dip.
Getting out would likely be a bad idea.. also selling some now, and hoping to buy more at a lower price might be a bad idea too… but it might not be a bad idea to just keep collecting your cashflow and holding whatever BTC that you had, and if a dip ends up happening, have some varying price points that you may end up buying the BTC price dip from here.. whether you might start buying at $32k and various price points below that or if you believe that you might want the price to go lower or even to considering that you are only going to buy more BTC if the price goes below $25k or even $20k… so surely, people are going to come to differing conclusions regarding that including considering if they should just buy back whatever they already sold, even if they might have sold too much at sub-$30k levels from a couple of weeks ago because they thought that the BTC price was going to go lower, and now they are uncertain about whether the BTC price is really going to go lower – in spite of the so many ongoing seemingly scare tactics and maybe some of the folks are who might be feeling desperate because they sold too much too low of BTC prices and they are worried about whether the BTC price is going to dip below prices in which they had already sold.. too much too low.
I might miss the perfect spot to buy. That is correct.
I doubt that there is any such thing as a “perfect buy spot”, and it seems way safer to try to play these matters incrementally rather than gambling in regards to how low the BTC price might go and when it might go there (and then does it happen? Maybe? Maybe not?).
I dont care though, as I wait for a good/decent point in time to buy.
Now might be a good time to buy, depending on your situation, especially if you are either new to bitcoin or you have an inadequate preparation for UP.
Just like with a house, or even Gold and Silver. You would not buy it if its in a downtrend.
Yes, I am going to consider a house or pms differently from how to assess bitcoin, and trend is only one of the factors, and surely we cannot even know whether we are in a downtrend or not, even though we can have presumptions about that, and those presumptions could end up being correct or incorrect, so hopefully no matter what we decide we should be sufficiently and adequately preparing just in case we might be wrong.
Even if you plan to hold hit for 50 Years, the point where you are buying it, should make sense imho. But that is very personal and individual.
Of course, if you have a 50 year timeline you might consider differently than a 4-10 year timeline, so what you are considering for 50 years (which seems a bit ridiculous to be planning too many specifics for that far out, even though you might be able to create some timelines for that far out).
Many times, people might be early into their working lives (or money earning years) and be considering that they might end up working 40 years or more before they are going to be able to stop, but they also might be considering that they might be able to stop working 20 years early if they invest smartly, so frequently there might be some ways to attempt to make plans that are much shorter than 40 years to 50years, but surely, there could be some back up plans that are in place too in case some plans that do not work then you have the back up plans.
A lot of people are not planning too many specifics even further out than 10 to 20 years, because they surely need to see how the next 10 to 20 years go before they can get into too many specifics in regards to planning after that – even if they might have some foundational aspects in place for those longer timelines.
I am not convinced yet, that BTC will at any point in the future be the same as internet or televsion or even print media (back in 1600's) was.
Sure.. maybe it will and maybe it won’t. Instead of investing 10% or more of your total investment portfolio into bitcoin, you might decide to invest only 1% into bitcoin because you believe it is a long shot, but merely having skepticism seems to justify reducing the amount that you invest rather than refraining from investing, and of course, the longer their timeline that any of us has and the more doubt that we have would justify DCA investing and even possibly lowering the amount of the DCA rather than completely removing DCA investing or saying that you are going to wait and see which you may well never get any kind of decently strong evidence, but if you are sitting back and waiting, then the price might be continuing to go up and you continue to lose opportunities to have been able to accumulate BTC at a lower amounts, even if the lower amounts seem insignificant at the time.
I recall several times in 2015 having screwed up cashflows, but every once in a while I would get an additional $100 or $200 come in, and I would sometimes BTC when the BTC prices were largely around $250… so $100 would get me around 0.4 BTC or $200 would get me 0.8 BTC, and sure at the time, it seemed like small amounts, but surely that is only 6 years ago, and the amounts are seeming to be quite good, currently, and there were several people telling me that it was dumb to be buying BTC during that time, and it just seemed that BTC prices were in a “downtrend”. But in the longer term, the relatively conservative and ongoing buying into BTC ended up paying off quite well… even though at the time (in 2015) there was a feeling that there might have been just throwing money into an ongoing black hole that was not likely to hold its value because there was so many failed efforts to move up, and every once in a while pushes downward in the BTC price, including in September/October 2015 when there were pushes down to $200 that ended up never going that low in price ever again (at least not so far).
As for now, I dont see the higher usecase of it.
You must be selectively blind, and I am not even going to go into that nonsense assertion of yours.
Or maybe I do, but I cant see the mainstream does.
Oh gawd.. you are not really making matters better with your claims about what the mainstream might see or not see.. It almost seems as if you are making stupid-ass BIG blocker arguments about bitcoin not being usable for payments, even though selectively ignoring that a whole country is making bitcoin legal tender based on a building of second layer payment systems.
Oh those people or governments do not count because “mainstream” is not talking about it.
And only because something is limited in supply, does not automatically make it worth millions of dollars.
Hm? Go figure? I thought that bitcoin’s enforced scarcity was a pretty big deal, but hey, what do know? Merely because there has never been such an asset that has even come close to bitcoin’s level of scarcity, that’s not important.. it’s just a random unimportant aspect of bitcoin that does not matter… hm? Who would have thunk?
Take ... personal art, for example. If I draw some pictures, in green and blue and then announce there will only be 70 of theese pictures. Who cares.
Sounds like you have devolved into a discussion about NFTs, and even though bitcoin is the best of NFTs, it still has 2.1quadrillion units (aka satoshis) (that could be further subdivided), but hey bitcoin is way more valuable than art in the sense that there are units that can be moved around and we know the value of them (as it changes over time).. and we can transmit them, hold them and they are quite amazingly verifiable, securable, portable, and we may or may not decide to use 3rd party services in our management of them, while some financial institutions and rich people are hoarding them, but what do they know? I am just going to sit back and fail to accumulate some for myself because I believe that they are not valuable. Yeah right.
Only because something is there and limited in numbers, it does not have to gain value over time.
Interesting theory that you have there, New.in.trading…
NOT.
BTC hopefully will, but I am tired of hearing this "only a few ppl on earth even own some btc, and its supply is limited" fact. Its absolutely true, dont get me wrong, but its also a phrase you find on every insta scam profile.
Of course, you can believe that BTC is no different than anything else. That’s your choice.
Do I believe in BTC longterm? YES! Do I buy every dip if it looks like a downtrend to me? NO. its that simple.
Well, if you are establishing some kind of a long term plan that is related to BTC, then there should not be any problem in terms of figuring out how much BTC you might want to hold, and how regularly you want to be buying BTC… or even how much cash you might want to keep in reserves in the event that BTC prices drop some more from here. None of these matters about the future are going to be clearly laid out in terms of providing any kind of road map that any of us might be able to follow in order to prepare ourselves for varying BTC price directions, so I doubt that you should want to regret overly preparing for down, and then it does not happen, so in the end, there ends up being some place that allows you to feel that you did your best in terms of attempting to prepare both psychologically and financially, and maybe some people will never be happy because they will end up second guessing themselves when the BTC price goes contrary to what you had prepared and then you realize that you had unreasonably prepared more for one direction rather than the other.
But in all honesty, thank you for your answer it really gave and gives me stuff to think about, very good points you mentioned!
We are not always going to agree, but hopefully in the end, a bit of back and forth can sometimes help each of us to try to know our selves better so that we can feel more comfortable about our preparations, even if we end up being wrong… which (being wrong) happens to each of us at one point or another.
