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761  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: July 01, 2014, 04:42:30 AM
more and more people are realizing 10% interest a month on bitfinex will almost certainly make more than long term btc holding.

At 10%/month (what I've been making at finex), btc would have to be 6000 in 2 years.

I doubt most lenders lend out for months given the risk of goxings. Most are just lending out for a brief period.

I usually lend 66% of my money and use the remaining 33% for trading. Is a good balance, because the lends gives me a steady income (about 1.8%/week), while with the trading money I can have a good income from the market movements (like now... +30$ in 30 minutes).

Usually I lend money for 2 or 3 days, except when the offer goes over 0.4%, in this case I lend them for 30 days (but usually are closed earlier).

Nick.

I see people mention 10% a month (0.333% daily rate) and you mention 1.8% a week (0.257% daily rate).

I am only seeing 0.16% daily rate right now.


As for flash crash people mentioning here, I sincerely hope it won't happen. In the event of flash crash (and price do not recover on all exchanges), it will be extremely difficulty to unwind 26M usd worth of swap. A more likely scenario would be settled outstanding swap using bitcoin with lender.
Lenders would need to take some kind of "haircut" if the borrower was unable to unwind their position without a 101%+ loss
762  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Russia planning to push Dollar in crisis ? Chance for Bitcoin ? on: July 01, 2014, 04:39:46 AM
Russia and US are always against the other and try to defeat the other.  The USA is the largest economy and the dollar is accepted as most reliable and valuable currency by most people in the world. Most goods or services are priced at dollar, even the cryptocurrency at the moment. To crash dollar system is not easy by any country even the Russia. In the future BTC will get accepted by the majority of the population then maybe BTC has the chance to take over dollar.
Why would Russia want to destroy this? They have been our ally for a world war and are our trading partner now

Have not u heard of cold war between Russia and USA ? Moreover, Putin does not like US's stance on Ukraine in the recent aggression.
Yes we had the cold war, however there was not actually any fighting directly between the US and Russia.

Putin is an old KGB agent though. Old habits die hard. I don't think he can do much more than saber rattle quite frankly. In a real shooting war with the west he would be way out gunned.
This may be true but Russia has a lot to lose and the chances of them loosing are greater now then in the cold war.

This is all about prediction. U never know what is actually happening deep inside China & Russia, because they are not so open like Western world.
China holds trillions of dollars and trillions more of other countries currencies. If China were to destroy the US dollar then they would lose money on those dollar investments.
763  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Localbitcoins on: July 01, 2014, 04:31:22 AM
Personally, no, but I have traded with a couple people there who clearly provide liquidity and have 100+ feedback. They generally buy 3-7% below market and sell 3-7% above market. Seems like a good system for profit, but you could miss out on some big moves this way, not trading the swings on exchanges.
Even if they made 7% on 100 trades with an average trade of $1,000 then they would only make $7,000 in profit
764  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Poll : do you trust an exchange to hold your bitcoins ? on: July 01, 2014, 04:30:12 AM
Exchanges are for exchanging, wallets are for keeping coins.

Simply use things in the way they are supposed to be used and you will be fine.

The problem is when you are waiting in $$ for the volatile spikes downward to buy. Wiring $$ out to your bank account means you might miss big opportunities. Hence the drive to keep $$ on the exchange -- no other way to do it.
This is true if your intent is to trade the bitcoin you have. If you intention is to save your bitcoin and/or spend it on good/services then transferring money to an exchange is a feesible option

Well, this is the "Trading Discussion" forum. Tongue

I wish there was a way that I could safely hold $ to send to exchanges quickly (in the way you can do with BTC), but the banking system has its drawbacks! Smiley
You don't necessarily need to trade bitcoin for fiat, IMO using bitcoin in exchange for some kind of service would be better for the bitcoin economy then trading it for fiat.
765  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Expedia Accepting Bitcoins on: July 01, 2014, 04:28:02 AM
So celebrate this, what are we calling it? Victory? This 'victory' for bitcoin, but know that it is a victory that can, and will, bite some of you in the ass.

Why is it going to 'bite some of us in the ass'.  I've booked a hotel with expedia in the past and didn't have a problem.  I used a visa card.  Next time I use expedia I may get to pay with BTC.  I think that would be wonderfully convenient.  Can you be a little more clear?

I guess the ability to chargeback on your card is what he meant. Bitcoin transactions are irreversible but I guess they will still issue refunds.

Aha, yes that seems like it might be what was meant.  However, if I was negotiating in good faith with expedia and they owed me a refund, I'm sure they can find some way to do it (either by sending my BTC back or by generating a payment in fiat).
Companies like expedia have their reputation on the line so they have an incentive to issue a refund when one is due as people would not do business with them if they have this kind of reputation
766  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: US Marshall's Bitcoin Auction Results on: July 01, 2014, 04:26:32 AM
Really interesting to me that bitcoin price has actually been going up.  I really suspected one or more big bag holders would try to induce some panic sell's to try and drive the price down in an effort to buy back in really low.

Will be interesting to see whether or not any of these winning bid's actually disclose any real figures insofar as what they paid at auction.

there are still no real results on auction prices that would make us confident that buying is a good option now.
i think its better to wait than to trade until we actualy know something worth knowing.
I would argue that bidders who did not win the auction will buy at least a portion of the coins they tried to buy on exchanges
767  Economy / Economics / Re: Bulgarian banking system under attack on: July 01, 2014, 04:25:13 AM
The authorities in Brussels also tried to calm savers' worries, having seen the queues that built up outside branches of two major Bulgarian banks in recent days.

It insisted that Bulgaria's banking system was:

"well capitalised and has high levels of liquidity compared to its peers in other member states. For precautionary reasons, Bulgaria has taken this measure to further increase the liquidity and safeguard its financial system".

That statement is an outright lie. Authorities lie, because they can't do much else to stop the bank run. If only a fraction of the population demands their savings handed over, banks will collapse.

This should be taken very serious. Of course the World Cup comes in handy to distract the general public in Europe...


It's not really an outright lie. "high levels of liquidity compared to its peers" and "increase the liquidity" does not necessarily mean, that all available cash covers all demand deposits. You can have a look at the publicly available data of the Bulgarian central bank to see that all available cash does NOT cover all demand deposits.

Well in this case I don't want to know how bad the situation of those peers is... this could spread to other countries fast.

Gold and Bitcoin both jumping today. Coincidence?
bulggaria is not as high profile or a big (economy) of a country as greece is/was
768  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: July 01, 2014, 04:23:37 AM
If given a choice to walk away with either Bitcoin or gold of equivalent value, what would you pick?

Asians and Westerners were asked in Taipei in Chinese and English if they would take Bitcoin or gold home with them that day, and the answer might surprise you...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6GiC8dqN9A

We just shot a video outside the Taipei 101 skyscraper area here and gave people a chance to answer if they would walk away with either Bitcoin or gold- and why.

If you were approached and were offered the same deal, would you walk away with Bitcoin or gold in your pocket, and why???


as it has been said over and over again, dont put all eggs in one basket.
i would personal go 40gold - 60 bitcoin.
why would you chose this ratio of gold to bitcoin? What makes bitcoin so much better that you would want 1.5x the amount you invest in gold?
769  Economy / Economics / Re: Would people pour their cash into bitcoin given a stock market crash? on: July 01, 2014, 04:19:50 AM
I believe we'd get some percentage of residual money from a stock market crash.

When the stock market goes down, there is a strengthening of the USD which economists call a "flight to quality."

Bitcoin is an alternative to the dollar.
I would say that bitcoin is more of a competitor to the dollar. If the dollar rallies due to the flight to quality (safety) then competitors would fall
770  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [BitPool] Mesh networks to bypass ISPs on: July 01, 2014, 04:18:36 AM
I was a miner before ASICs and did have to switch to altcoins when Bitcoin mining was no longer profitable. But to bring this point on topic, we can't avoid monopolies in rural areas. Meshnets only work in high population density areas.

true, thats why i went back to basics with the town idea, as after the 10th relay it would be much like dial-up.. or for the younger generation of tech savvi people... tor

relaying internet at 30-100 metres for 3000 miles (capetown to north africa) just wouldnt work, especially if there was a 1million population all trying to grab a bit of the real internet relay/node from the border of egypt (scenario where all african internet was shut off)

a 1:10 ratio of real-internet:user works, kinda... but not a 1:1,000,000
If 10 relays would mean that speeds would be unbearably slow then wouldn't this cause incentives to essentially have several "central" local internet communities/websites
771  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: July 01, 2014, 04:08:42 AM
interest rates are manipulated to try to keep inflation low

In theory, but not in practice. For the last 25 years, interest rates have been kept low to benefit the wealthy, and the result has been inflation that has destroyed the wealth of the poor and middle class.

What inflation??


the fed has done a pretty good job of minimizing inflation with interest rates over the past several decades. 
772  Economy / Economics / Re: bitcoin and money laundering on: July 01, 2014, 04:07:08 AM
Bitcoin is only pseudoanonymous (though if you hide your IP and use new addresses every time it is pretty much anonymous).

That being said, I can't wait to see what extra anonymity features that Zerocash will be bringing to the table when it is released!
You can use blockchain's shared coin to get the same effect as zerocash but with shorter TX confirmation times as zerocash has all TXs in a shared coin format and when one party "backs out" of a TX then the TX will fail and all the parties will need to try again by all signing a new TX

If your trying to launder coins i would suggest for you not to use sharedcoin as it has been proven not to be so anonymous

Link:
http://www.coindesk.com/blockchains-sharedcoin-users-can-identified-says-security-expert/
Shared coin when used in conjunction with other mixers can mask your identity.   

XMR coin is currently partnering with I2P developers to see if they can bring anon coin into the market.

Darkcoin already have two failed implementation. The current framework the coin operates on may not even be possible to implement a truly anonymous coin.

I don't think that these types of extreme privacy features have that much of a demand from crypto users.
773  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: July 01, 2014, 04:05:35 AM
if we have to convince you, dont do it please. buy a nice car or make holidays.

You should not be selfish, but give neutral advice.

Is Bitcoin a buy? Yes
Is Bitcoin a buy right now? Nobody knows, so buy over a long period, several times to average the price.

And buying a car or making holidays is not an investment, it's an expense.

he has to convince himself, otherwise it has no value and he doesnt understand bitcoin. dont listen to other people if you want to make an investment.
the OP should be attempting to learn more about Bitcoin and how it works rather then try to get people to convince him to invest. 
774  Economy / Economics / Re: When will people feel comfortable using BTC ? on: July 01, 2014, 04:03:14 AM
When will people spend BTC as easily as fiat , not seeing it as an investment opportunity but a better currency for them to use ? Most of my friends that I have currently told about Bitcoin are most intrigued by its rapid rate of growth and not its outstanding features as a currency. They don't really care that it is free from government control , but are more focused on the fact that it has risen xy%

I don't really spend much of my Bitcoin , because I am always in fear.
I am not talking about cashing out , but for digital goods.

How do you spend 10 mBTC on a 5$ digital good when you believe that the same 10mBTC is worth atleast 15$ , probably more.
How much of your Bitcoin have you hoarded , and how much have you really spent ?
I am under the impression that people tend to hoard more with BTC than with fiat , considering it an investment more than a currency

I don't know how to make a poll here , so :- http://strawpoll.me/1793917
This is not referring to your blockchain.info statistic , which includes money you have moved around. I am looking at money you have truly spent vs total amount of BTC you have received.

Overall , I'm trying to look at how much my guess is true by the poll and your estimates of when majority of people will start looking at BTC as a currency.

EDIT : I'm not sure this is the right section , tell me if this should go in General Discussion or so.

People wont trust bitcoin ever in general public, because they know that their funds can be stolen without being able to get it back.
Only shot bitcoin realy has , is to change target audience from general public to investment firms.

the same is true for cash.

The idea is to make wallets that are more idiot proof/idiot resistant
775  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Western Union would include bitcoins if they were "regulated" on: July 01, 2014, 04:02:15 AM
A Bitcoin ATM next to every Western Union in the world would make them obsolete.
Nah. There's a Bitcoin ATM at Hacker Dojo in Mountain View.  15% buy/sell spread, 5% fee. Makes Western Union Money Transfer look cheap.

My client pays 2% fee to send me an international cash transfer via moneygram.
Can Bitcoin ATM beat that?
Bitcoin would more likely then not be less expensive then 2%.

This price does sound low for moneygram transactions. Are they not instant transfers?
776  Economy / Economics / Re: FBI to Auction Off Silk Road Bitcoins on: July 01, 2014, 03:55:56 AM
The price of bitcoin will likely fall in anticipation of the auction, however will rise once all the supply has reached the market.

The auction will likely make the mainstream media and will raise awareness about bitcoin.
Indeed happened, you are some kind of wizard or I lack some Bitcoin logistics, anyway, our crypto-baby is having a good time  Grin
the loosing bidders likely bought bitcoin on exchanges after they realized that they did not win their bid
777  Economy / Economics / Re: Capitalism and immorality on: July 01, 2014, 03:54:23 AM
That's what the term means. It's an unavoidable monopoly. You can always go to a socialist country instead if you can get a passport in time before you die.


Monopoly is not unavoidable. If this is the case, counties and dynasty will last forever rather than fade into history and being replaced by a better managed country/dynasty.

Very true. Many monopolies only last a few normal human lifetimes. I'm glad your immortality is working out for you.

Technology advancement speed up the process of downfall.


Technology progress creates monopolies. Look at mining pools. The superior efficiencies give the most payout, that's how monopolies are born. Oil companies may change names, but the same families are running the companies for many decades. Companies like TI and IBM own so many patents, they monopolize technology development. Revolution speeds up the process of downfall, but we're a long way from that.

Monopoly is fine if the company is providing an efficient and superior service.


Well the main problem lies with the fact that when there is an actual monopoly the incentive to continue to provide an efficient and superior service fades away. You can't exactly have superior service if there's no longer anything else to compare it to. And since there is no longer an alternative efficiency becomes irrelevant for the monopoly.

When there's no longer an efficient monopoly, more efficient players should enter the market.

The problem comes when the monopoly takes steps to block or create barriers to entry that make entering the market difficult.
this is exactly why most governments have made monopolies illegal and will force them to break up when they come close to having a monopoly
778  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Martingale System on: July 01, 2014, 03:52:52 AM
The amounts that you bet do not make a difference. It is the fact that the difference between the minimum and maximum bet is usually too small for it to work as you would need to bet exponential greater amounts as you lose

Even if you have a very high balance and can afford many losses consecutively , it is still not a good idea to use martingale at all, because you will still get busted sooner or later with a very long losing streak.

The more you play the more you lose because the casino has an edge. Period. Gamble responsably to have fun and enjoy while it lasts Wink

+1.
With 1% house edge, you would lose 1% of your total wagered amount on average.
With the martingale strategy, you are going to risk a high amount for a small profit, and so the total wagered amount would be huge.
Every bet that you bet using martingale will earn the casino on average of 1% of your bet. As your bets get bigger and bigger the casino will simply make more off of your betting.
779  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BITCOIN CLOUD MINING IS A SCAM (noob word!) on: July 01, 2014, 03:50:38 AM
In theory the rate of difficulty increases will slow down as the rate of efficiency of miners (in terms of W/GHs) starts to plateau.

Although there is not a difficulty limit in the Bitcoin protocol there is a theoretical limit as to how high difficulty can rise to. The difficulty will likely not rise to above a rate at which electricity costs would exceed the expected value of the bitcoins mined.

That's not going to happen as fast as it should/maybe ever because people keep doing preorders and cloud mining. People running cloud mining operations don't' really care about the price/profitability because they make money by getting someone else to pay for it. Preorders enable companies to make miners that they would never be able to sell off the shelf, and cause miners to use/plug in unprofitable miners in an attempt to make some money instead of losing it all.
If a miner were to receive a miner that uses more electricity then it produces bitcoin they would likely not use it for very long as they would just be loosing more money by running it.

CEX charges it's users what is essentially the actual cost of electric and maintenance for their GHs so when the electric cost exceeds the mining revenue they will essentially turn off their GHs. I am not sure about other cloud mining services, but I imagine they have similar terms (it would be possible that customers essentially prepaid for electricity)
780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are the fucking silk road coins sold ? on: July 01, 2014, 03:44:24 AM
File a freedom of information act request "FOIA"
Done.  Now we will see how long it takes.
You cannot make a FOIA for any piece of information from the government. There are a lot of exemptions to having to disclose information from a FOIA
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