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801  Economy / Economics / Re: Mexico's billionaire invests in Bitcoin on: November 19, 2020, 03:37:25 PM
One advantage of those who are rich is the domino effect which is likely to occur when they declare hot things.  I really believe that Pliego's statement will make many other rich people start to be interested in Bitcoin.  it is very likely that Bitcoin will pass $ 20k before the end of the year, this is really beautiful news..

I'll take the under on that. These threads are nothing more than people wishing very hard for things that are not likely. If by chance bitcoin hits $20k before the end of the year, I predict you'll have another sharp fall like last time, because just like last time, this is nothing more than momentum chasing and people FOMOing into bitcoin. This type of price appreciation is not sustainable, and once confidence falters, it falls a lot faster than it rises.  (That's not a bitcoin thing specifically, all assets follow this same rule.)
802  Economy / Economics / Re: usa dollar future on: November 18, 2020, 11:55:02 PM
the usa dollar been falled many years , but it might be the greatest asset to buy?
i dont think usa dollar will completely go away?
currencies falling and raising...but can they really disapere`?
look the venezuela inflation is grazy but currency is still used.


For Venezuela I think the sanctions will end soon if it is in Biden's hands. for some reason, it is clear that Biden's diplomatic style is a little different from Trump's. Then Iran was also not free from US sanctions when Trump became president. for the two countries as if it is a breath of fresh air so that they can be partners again. yes the system that will be carried out by Biden will not be far from the system that has been implemented by Obama.

I wouldn't count on sanctions easing under Biden.  He will absolutely be more diplomatic and professional in his relations with other nations, but the US has had sanctions on Venezuela under Obama and it is very likely they will continue under Biden.  There is a larger foreign policy goal the US is trying to realize with the sanctions, and that doesn't change with the president, no matter how much of an idiot Trump was.  This is larger than him.
803  Economy / Economics / Re: US Household Incomes Increased More in 2018 Than in Previous 20 Years—Combined on: November 18, 2020, 11:51:04 PM
One of your own sources undercuts the claim you're trying to make.  Whereas you described the wage growth as "stunning," the source you're quoting to back you up has this to say:

Quote
If we start there — and use the same wage series and inflation adjustment as before — we find that wages have grown by 20%. While that is slow compared with the gains enjoyed by the top 1%, it is a significant increase in purchasing power.

Note that the article does not agree with your assessment that the wage growth is stunning. In fact, your source points out what you're missing. It's slow by comparison to the top 1%, who continue to accrue the vast majority of the benefits of the improving economy. The point is that whether it's wage growth or tax cuts, the benefits falling on the different classes are nowhere near equitable considering the middle class built the American economy and the rich are constantly looting the federal treasury to run ever larger deficits so they can have more money. 

The deficit is not sustainable. It wasn't sustainable before Trump took office, and then he supercharged how not sustainable it was by passing tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefited the rich.
804  Economy / Economics / Re: Hoping that its the end of corona virus on: November 15, 2020, 09:06:45 PM
The new vaccine by Pfizer and biontech looks really promising. With a 90% immunity it could really be the breakthrough we desperately need. The government already ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine and with grown people needing 2 shots it would mean that around 65-70% of the population could be vaccined. The only thing I am scared of is the side effects, there is not much information available yet.

One study has shown it to be 90% effective, but it still hasn't been shown to be safe.  Those are two separate issues, and the latter is what is still yet to be reviewed before it can be submitted to the FDA for approval.  Plenty of drugs have been derailed because they were effective but not safe for human consumption due to side effects.
805  Economy / Economics / Re: Dow Jones could crash by up to 4000 points if Biden locks USA!!! on: November 15, 2020, 09:03:59 PM
It will be foolish to shut down the economy now, when the pandemic is retreating. Most of the pharma companies have also announced that the vaccines will be available in the market from next month onwards. And also, from what we have seen lockdowns have only a limited impact in reducing the number of deaths from COVID 19. Countries which refused to impose any sort of lockdowns were the first to recover (examples are Pakistan and African nations).

The pandemic is not retreating. Are you even paying attention?  The US is very nearly out of hospital space due to the surge of infections.  Every day for the last 9 days we've set a new record for most infections.  Deaths are skyrocketing.  Absolutely nothing is getting better.  If a vaccine gets approved tomorrow it will take 8-12 months to distribute nationally.  Pakistan and Africa are so poor and have such poor tracking and reporting abilities that data coming out of them on Covid infections are useless for comparing to developed economies.  If you want an apt comparison, look at equally developed countries where some have imposed lockdowns and some didn't and you will see that the rate of infection was always lower in those that imposed lockdowns, and the stricter the lockdown the better the data.  Even look at the US where the southern states largely had lax lockdowns vs northern states that had stricter, and the data speaks for itself.
806  Economy / Economics / Re: PayPal to allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network on: November 15, 2020, 04:13:29 PM
Assuming they will eventually enable transferring bitcoin in and out and using coins for commerce transactions at anyplace that accepts PayPal currently, that will be a big deal.  I'm not sold on PayPal allowing buying Bitcoin alone being a game changer.  It's nice to have the option, but there are plenty of places to buy bitcoin already.

Yes. There are plenty of places to buy Bitcoins. You can purchase from exchanges such as Binance/Huobi, peer-to-peer platforms such as Localbitcoins/Bisq or even from Bitcoin ATMs. But while these options may sound familiar for us, for the vast majority of the people out there, these options are complicated. They don't trust unregulated exchanges such as Binance. However, they would be ready to put their trust in PayPal, which is regulated and operating for more than two decades.

Fair point. I didn't take into account that PayPal's stature as a large and trusted financial institution presents a new trusted place to buy bitcoin.  With Square and Coinbase already offering sales points though, there is still a lot of availability of large trusted financial institutions.
807  Economy / Economics / Re: Dow Jones could crash by up to 4000 points if Biden locks USA!!! on: November 15, 2020, 02:55:35 PM
I am quite sure that Biden is a very disastrous choice. Trump lowered the tax rates and this helped the economy in a big way. Now this oldie wants to raise the taxes and undo whatever positive happened to the US economy for the last 4 years. Then he want to ban most of the fracking activity, so that the crude oil prices will rise and his Arab friends will get the benefit. He wants to remove all the restrictions on trade with China. These are the issues that are going to have an impact in a major way. Any impact from the lockdown may be temporary. 

Trump lowered the tax rates to what effect? The rich got their massive tax cuts and now the deficit is 3 trillion dollars in a single year. What good are low tax rates if the dollar collapses because the Fed has to print trillions of dollars to service the massive debt republicans have run up in just the last 4 years, on top of what was already an unsustainable debt because republicans are so fiscally irresponsible?  I swear, people who always focus on the tax rates and ignore how unsustainable our deficit and debt are completely lack any ability to see the logical consequence for their disastrous and unsustainable policies.

You cannot have a prosperous economy with an unserviceable debt. The past "good economy" has been financed with debt. The economy has never been as good as you believe it's been because it's always been borrowed from future prosperity through massive government borrowing in order to consume the "prosperity" in the present.  You're like a bunch of toddlers who can't delay gratification because your brains are too simple.

And no, Biden doesn't want to ban most fracking activity.  The amount of wrong information in one post is astonishing.
808  Economy / Economics / Re: USA and USA dollar problem Biden government new Challenges on: November 15, 2020, 02:45:49 PM
China is producing and spreading the vaccine and this will make Biden to face them sooner to later US must stop China if Biden wants to get the the USD once again.
Why will Biden face China or try to stop them? If the vaccines are curing patients with covid-19, why will it be stopped if the world is being healed.

That part of the post doesn't make any sense, just ignore it. It looks like fear mongering, trying to force another unnecessary conflict point between the US and China.  There is no risk to the US for China vaccinating its people against Covid-19.  People have been calling for the fall of the USD for decades, and not to say it can't happen, just that decades worth of being wrong hasn't stopped them.
809  Economy / Economics / Re: Dow Jones could crash by up to 4000 points if Biden locks USA!!! on: November 15, 2020, 04:51:23 AM
It is also possible that Bidden didn't win:

Quote
“REPORT: DOMINION DELETED 2.7 MILLION TRUMP VOTES NATIONWIDE. DATA ANALYSIS FINDS 221,000 PENNSYLVANIA VOTES SWITCHED FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BIDEN. 941,000 TRUMP VOTES DELETED. STATES USING DOMINION VOTING SYSTEMS SWITCHED 435,000 VOTES FROM TRUMP TO BIDEN.”
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326926226888544256


Also few states will recount votes and exclude votes without proof of identity.
Quote
Our most recent research in September revealed that 353 U.S. counties had 1.8 million more registered voters than eligible voting-age citizens. In other words, the registration rates of those counties exceeded 100% of eligible voters!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/11/12/fitton-2020-election-update/


No, it's not possible Biden didn't win. There's been no credible report of election fraud anywhere in the country.  Every lawsuit filed by the president challenging the result has been thrown out of court so far as utterly meritless.  Further, no result has ever been overturned as a result of a recount on the order needed to flip any state Trump lost.  It's just never happened and it's not going to happen here because mistakes that large don't happen.  Lastly, quoting the most prolific liar in modern American history is not evidence of anything.  Trump says whatever benefits him and there's nothing he won't lie about in order to be the president.  And the claim he's made has already been disproven and thrown out of court because it's entirely without merit. Trump lost the election, BY A LOT. End of the line.
810  Economy / Economics / Re: USA and USA dollar problem Biden government new Challenges on: November 15, 2020, 04:45:29 AM
USA need new thing to back up USA dollar.

Oil is taken by OPEC all Ready so USA have no power over oil anymore!

Now USA Can only go to in war but other countries will crush USA quick like tomato.

Here is the options for USA :


Start production,  First problem competation with China!!  No cheap Labour!!

Produce alot medications,  First problem Same like oil world reserves can be filled up fast and no actual need for medications such us covid vaccasines.

Start illegal drug business... Well this one can be Easy as USA army can Take over Columbia Mexico and peru Easy with one week.
Where to sell?  Well in Europe, uk,  and Canada.
Drug import export is possible and doeble only problem is how they clean the money if they can figure out this this is best option for them

More options?  I think there is not many


Aa there is one more use the Foreign diplomatic connections and make small conflcits Around the World like small wars and sell weapons to them.

Or make any Kind of problem in the world that world need to pay to USA and only USA can solve that.... Perhaps make more conflits in Europe that USA Will need to provide Protection racketeerimg Protection service.

Make USA cyber Security so whole world Will Buy Protection from FBI and USA Kind of cyber Security....


Allright not so many ideas... I think those are most possible ways to keep dollar demand strong enought.



But the biggrest money maker for USA can be only the oil and drugs.

Weapons not so much becouse even the armenian latest conflict dont Bring so much profit the weapons are not that expensive.


To Underwood world we all need to think logically it Helps Smiley

This is one of the more ridiculous posts currently on the board.  First, the US is the largest oil producer in the world currently.  OPEC has enough problems controlling their own members, but the US doesn't regulate their producers like OPEC tries to.  What happens with American producers depends entirely on the state of the market.  Second, there's no logical link between anything you've written and "now the US can only go into war."  How even is that a logical conclusion?  Just throwing that in like it's causal to anything else you've written discredits the rest of what you wrote.
811  Economy / Economics / Re: Oil and USA dollar problem for USA covid 19 New oil on: November 15, 2020, 04:40:41 AM
Oil is cheap and oil reservers are full.

Countries have enough oil and before specially under bush regime world needed the USA dollar to Buy oil.  USA dollar was backed by oil.
Now this is the Question what is the other thing USA dollar need to use to stay as reserve currency with real value?
The oil is not in high demand... So what commoties they Will use what all the world need so badly that they need USA dollars?


My guess are that its the covid 19 vaccasines the New oil what can back up USA dollars.
But this covid vaccasines is not for ever so at some point demand Will end.... The USA need new thing then what the whole world will need from them?  Oil might not be since OPEC use euro and Russian rubles currency!


Whats your toughts?  Correct me of im wrong Smiley

The corona vaccine could maybe be traded as a commodity, but I don't think it will last for very long. Because many companies around the world should go into mass production. Also the denomination shouldn't be in USD because the vaccine is going to be produced everywhere. Biontech for example is a German company, so their cost is likely going to be in EUR. Pfizer is an international companies with laboratories all around the world.

There's no way this would be allowed to happen. It's medically unethical and the government wouldn't allow pandemic profiteering off the vaccine.  Not to mention that there is no system set up to trade a vaccine as a commodity like oil futures are.  I don't mind making the prediction that there's a zero percent chance of this happening.
812  Economy / Economics / Re: Look like covid is over Once we take loans on: November 15, 2020, 04:34:10 AM
Give Middle class the Dream of wealth by giving them credit loans... So the option to borrow from future... All good all happy Smiley

Loan = good = happy is a terrible equation. The truth is more like loan = evil = sad.

As a matter of fact, loans are more or less a trap. Banks and other lending entities have been playing the role of loan sharks in the past decades. They've made enormous amounts of money out of borrowers. They've acquired assets from those who defaulted.

Middle income families are better off avoiding loans. I've personally witnessed families who are trapped in debts that they end up paying them all throughout their lives.

The bank as the bogeyman is a tired cliche. Nobody forces anyone to take a loan. The reason consumers do it is because it's a benefit to them to do so. You could wait 20 years until you have enough money to buy a house without debt, or you could buy it now and pay it off over 30 years while living in it instead of paying rent to someone else that doesn't build your own equity in the property.  All loans aren't bad, it's lazy and wrong to present them as such.
813  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Treasuries on: November 15, 2020, 04:08:51 AM
We see that despite rising market price the share of the Bitcoin investment is surprisingly not increasing the percentage of the company that can be considered "bitcoin".
Since their last investment, not to overcomplicate the analysis, bitcoin is up 53% (up 16,200 from 10,600), while the share price is up only 37% (195 USD from 145).
I think that, going further, if BTC bull run continues, the market capitalisation will  better track the BTC price, as the "bitcoin investment" part of the firm will overwhelm the "business part", being ultimately the only factor to be priced in.

You should compare these percentages also to the S&P 500 as a comparison, because a 37% rise in the stock price is quit an increase in this period of time.  If the market is up in the same ballpark as the stock, this would suggest the stock is just undergoing the same macro trends as the market generally. However if there is a large disparity, that would further suggest that the rise is attributable to the bitcoin holdings driving the stock price increase as bitcoin appreciates in value. 
814  Economy / Economics / Re: PayPal to allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network on: November 15, 2020, 02:13:59 AM
This is a crucial detail, as the ability to buy and hold doesn't bring any utility to bitcoin. There are plenty of places you can already do that, it wasn't a large obstacle. The real benefit of tying Bitcoin functionality into PayPal is getting access to the commerce side of it; being able to buy bitcoin and then spend it at any merchant that accepts PayPal. That would be a big deal. This, not so much.

They are still in testing phase and that is the reason why they haven't enabled withdrawals or payments. The news is that they will offer full fledged services from mid-2021 and then you will be able to transact your coins. I expect the withdrawal and transaction fee to be roughly in line with what we have with various cryptocurrency exchanges. Right now, it is just buying and holding.

Assuming they will eventually enable transferring bitcoin in and out and using coins for commerce transactions at anyplace that accepts PayPal currently, that will be a big deal.  I'm not sold on PayPal allowing buying Bitcoin alone being a game changer.  It's nice to have the option, but there are plenty of places to buy bitcoin already.
815  Economy / Economics / Re: Biggest threats to the price of Bitcoin. on: November 15, 2020, 01:59:05 AM
What's far more a threat is price volatility and the low utility of the coin. It's just not useful as a currency.
Oh damn. Here's me using bitcoin as a currency on almost a daily basis, but just finding out it's not useful as a currency! Roll Eyes Why do you say it is not useful as a currency? I can spend it for goods and services with better privacy, faster finality, more security, and lower fees, than I can with credit cards or PayPal. Just because there is not widespread adoption yet does not make it a bad currency.

No widespread adoption is exactly what makes it a bad currency. Along with an inability to hold a stable value (actually more important for a currency) and the fact that the things you listed as a "benefit" are actually false. Bitcoin is slower than every current electronic payment (credit card, ACH, wire transfers are accepted in seconds vs. 10-60 minutes for bitcoin), lower fees is a big nope for credit card and ACH. Not to mention that most people on these boards are interested in Bitcoin appreciating in value, not holding a stable value, so the mentality of bitcoin enthusiasts as a whole is one of investment not for use as a currency. People using bitcoin for actual commerce are the vast minority of people involved in bitcoin. Glad you find use in it as a currency. I'm not expecting that to go mainstream any time soon.
816  Economy / Economics / Re: Working plans for uneducated unemplyement people in USA on: November 15, 2020, 01:52:20 AM
As my mother taught in a very large university here in Los Angeles, I don't think many of you understand that it was the government's hand in the education system that made it so unaffordable. The government made the whole loan system and colleges saw they could keep increasing tuition costs as long as loans allowed kids to pursue education at the expense of massive debt. College is essentially a talking, writing and reading endeavor. There are no real material costs considering the availability of online "print" - the "textbook" only costs whatever the publisher/author are willing to sell it at for rights as there's so little cost with an eBook.

Indeed, here in France universities are public and costs are very low. Students pay almost nothing, but even for the state the costs aren't major, just a bit higher than high school, basically. So about 5000€/year.

Private schools (mostly commerce schools) charge something like 7000€/year and people find that expensive already.

The prices in the US are totally ridiculous.

However I think for "uneducated people" they can get a high school diploma, then go to a community college, in the US, no ?

Yes, you can cut down on the cost of college by attending a community college for a couple years to get the general education requirements completed before finishing an advanced degree at a university.  Community college's often don't offer the type of advanced degrees you would get at a university, so it's difficult to finish a degree there.
817  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Holding in Companies on: November 15, 2020, 01:48:17 AM
Today Bitcoin is seen as a great asset to store assets and never fear inflation. This is probably the most obvious proof that Bitcoin is reducing inflation,  you can refer here: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-halving-inflation-rate-central-banks/

I think this is grossly overstated.  People buy bitcoin and cite inflation as a cause of concern, but there's no body of evidence that Bitcoin protects against inflation because it is much more volatile than the inflation rate is destructive to savings. The risk of holding btc vs USD isn't even comparable.  The USD is orders of magnitude safer.
818  Economy / Economics / Re: Working plans for uneducated unemplyement people in USA on: November 14, 2020, 11:21:46 PM
As my mother taught in a very large university here in Los Angeles, I don't think many of you understand that it was the government's hand in the education system that made it so unaffordable. The government made the whole loan system and colleges saw they could keep increasing tuition costs as long as loans allowed kids to pursue education at the expense of massive debt. College is essentially a talking, writing and reading endeavor. There are no real material costs considering the availability of online "print" - the "textbook" only costs whatever the publisher/author are willing to sell it at for rights as there's so little cost with an eBook.

The major cost of "higher levels of learning" is the whole advertising the schools do, their sports program and the whole prestige aspect. If you took all that nonsense away, a professor making $150K/year could take a year off of some real world work to teach a class of 30 students (let's assume the students don't change for simplicity). That equals $5k/yr per student. Figure at most $1k for books and if it's a science based class another $1k for materials. USC and Harvard charging $60K/yr - there's some real cheating going on and it's not the students. The whole system is a scam.

We should just go back to trade schools and apprenticeships for the masses. Spending $250K in 4 years while putting out no product only to make an extra $10K/yr over 25 years - what are these people expecting?

Biden will only increase that teacher pay to even higher levels - paid for by taxpayers.

While you're on the right track with the fact that government subsidizing student loans has led to a huge increase in the cost of tuition because it creates inelastic demand, it's simply wrong to say that the main costs of colleges are advertising and sports programs. Colleges have huge administrative cost and the cost of professors is probably the largest expense items, as well as all the other staff-related costs. And the sports programs are huge sources of revenue for big colleges, so it's not like all that money they consume comes from tuition. Most large football programs subsidize the cost of all the other unprofitable sports programs.

By the way, the president has nothing to do with college teacher pay. None whatsoever.
819  Economy / Economics / Re: Hoping that its the end of corona virus on: November 14, 2020, 11:15:38 PM
I think, our politicians aren't used to actually handle these type of things. These pandemic stuffs happen like so rare and once in a century or even rarer! Can't really blame them.

Corona isn't a very fatal virus specially for those with high immunity, so I think, it would be better to have herd immunity like getting infected and survive, so it won't infect again because of antibodies in our body which is created. It's going to take a while for the vaccine to be created though.
No one really knows or expects that the pandemic would come in our lives, that is why the government wasn't ready on how to solve this kind of huge problem in their country. We shouldn't also blame everything to our government even they make wrong decisions because it isn't easy to lead a country, and we still have the rights to follow them to avoid spreading the virus.

Having a vaccine is really the only solution to defeat or cure the virus, but making a vaccine or a cure for the virus is a long time progress just to provide every citizens all over the world.

Even with a vaccine, things may not go back to normal. There's some indication that the virus will be like the flu where the virus may be somewhat effective against certain strains but it mutates year-to-year and we still have a Covid season like there is a flu season. Covid may be here to stay going forward.
820  Economy / Economics / Re: China is looking to get rid of the US dollar on: November 14, 2020, 07:55:25 PM
Remember, the communist party has to fuel rapid growth to maintain power. As long as the economy is rapidly growing and the people believe it's because of the government, they have domestic stability.
So what do you think that a country should do, i am not a fan of the ruling party of China but i am impressed by their development and growth and how it is challenging many other countries and for the people development is necessary and if they think that the government can provide and they are happy with it, then what is the issue.


The difference between an open society and an authoritarian one like China is that an open society like a democracy removes their leaders peacefully through elections when they're bad shepherds of the economy. It's part of the social contract.  That doesn't exist in China.  The only way to remove the leaders is through violent revolution, so the stakes are much higher for them personally.
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