Current price: $582.00
Forecast until my next post:
50.8% probability of going up.
49.2% probability of going down.
There really doesn't seem to be much interest here. So at this point I'm going to discontinue the public predictions. Current price is 584.88. |
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Current price: $587.00
Forecast until my next post:
44.4% probability of going up.
55.6% probability of going down.
how are these probabilities determined? I compare the bid and ask orders sitting on the book at Bitstamp. It's a proprietary technique. |
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Current price: $582.00
Forecast until my next post:
50.8% probability of going up.
49.2% probability of going down.
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Current price: $587.00
Forecast until my next post:
44.4% probability of going up.
55.6% probability of going down.
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Bid wall at 585 disappeared just in time for the automated chart. Lasted almost exactly an hour.
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You're using linear scale. To track similar increases based on percentage, please switch to a logarithmic chart.
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So destroy everything and start over? What would happen if ECB didn't print money to restructure Greece's loan. Tough shit?
You talk you as if you live on a deserted island disconnected from the rest of civilization
On the contrary, inflation of fiat destroys wealth. A non-inflationary currency preserves it. Greece created its problem through overspending and monetization of debt. It was an incredibly stupid decision to enter into the EU knowing they would be unable to monetize their debt. One of these happened: a) They didn't realize they were spending more than their took in with taxes, b) They didn't realize they couldn't monetize their debt after joining the EU, or c) Those in power knew and wanted to use this to stop monetization of debt. The real answer is almost certainly (c), initiated by those who held large amount of currency and no longer wanted to support the masses with inflation of their holdings. |
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Nice $585 bid wall just showed up in time for the automated graph.
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The 21 million supply confuses a lot of people. The divisibility of the unit of measurement is infinite and if necessary in the future the developers can even add coins by adding a proof of stake function if it becomes necessary.
Not really because half has already been mined. So if the early adopters hoard the supply, it forces future generations to share less of pie Infinitely divisible means we can use the currency in as small a unit of measure as needed. The smallest one currently is the satoshi. Divide the 21 million by that number first for your starting point. There is plenty of room for expansion. I know what it means but its not practical. Much better to have supply that can be expanded knowing for certainty that population and ecomic activity will expand. Why do you think we left Bretton Woods. OPs friend is correct, elasticity is a necessity for modern money. No, elasticity of money is a necessity for Statism and Socialism. Individual Rights begins with the right to hold private property without the State, or anyone else, taking it or devaluing it. A currency that slowly devalues is a currency that slowly steals your property. It is a way to tax the people without their realization. It is an affront to anyone believing in individual liberty and the absolute right to hold private property. |
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Conditions are always changing. If the price has moved against your prediction, do you report that? Or do you wait for the fluctuation to swing in your favor? What you suggest would only work if I was picking tops and bottoms in a range-bound market. The minute we hit a trend my position would be destroyed, and I'd have to sit with it and hope it came back. This is not what I'm doing. I have clearly reported a couple losses when conditions changed and my system changed its forecast. In a market that is not range bound, what I suggest (and what I suspect you are in fact doing) would not be guaranteed of success 100% of the time, but it would work a lot of the time. I gave a very clear example of a situation where it would work very nicely. That's a range bound market. The price went both up and down. In a strong trend this is a very low probability scenario. In any case, my calls are not tied to price action. They are based on specific analysis of bid and ask order quantities on the book. |
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Conditions are always changing. If the price has moved against your prediction, do you report that? Or do you wait for the fluctuation to swing in your favor? What you suggest would only work if I was picking tops and bottoms in a range-bound market. The minute we hit a trend my position would be destroyed, and I'd have to sit with it and hope it came back. This is not what I'm doing. I have clearly reported a couple losses when conditions changed and my system changed its forecast. |
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I don't. The market does. When conditions change, I report it.
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Current price: $566.10
Forecast until my next post:
60.0% probability of going up.
40.0% probability of going down.
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Current price: $570.92
Forecast until my next post:
49.1% probability of going up.
50.9% probability of going down.
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Any update on your dollar amounts? That's the part of the thread I find most interesting.
I'll update that later today. |
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Current price: $575.00
Forecast until my next post:
35.8% probability of going up.
64.2% probability of going down.
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The conservative money may wait for the next retracement to come in. But come in it will.
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Watch the sitting buy orders turn into market buy orders.
CCMF.
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Right, but to wait for that point is to miss the downward move between the top and the point of support. Retail investors wait for confirmation on all signals. To be most profitable, you must look for the early signs and find more supporting evidence. I'm looking for the latter now.
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