There are two aspects of large, public buys or sells: the net effect on overall buying/selling, and the psychological effect. Your point re: net effect is correct of course, but the same could then be said (more or less) about the SR auctions (which are also just a week or two of mining subsidies). What it ignores is the substantial effect such orders have on the market in addition to it. Similarly to how Bitstamp's "bearwhale" created panic at first, then, when it turned out there is actually the demand to absorb the offer, created a (minor) rally, I believe that there's a (hard to quantify maybe) market impact of learning that large, presumably private, investors are buying at these prices, more than they did in the months before.

I strongly suggest you change the thread title.

It's one thing to troll the bulls a bit, but this is a different level.

Edit: Thanks.

It is funny because they are treating the page number like the price of Bitcoin. /Ralph

Did you ever consider trading on daily only? Maybe look at lower resolutions for early warning once in a while, and higher ones for confirmation, but for regular trading: nothing below daily. Might be helpful to you, but that's just me guessing.

Re: Coinbase valuation. I'm not saying the company's valuation (or those of other Bitcoin companies) is unrelated to network valuation, but I am pointing out that a 1:1 comparison ("it's way too high at 10% of BTC mcap") is naive, in my opinion. Two (so far) largely unrelated market dynamics determine the value of one and and the other, and it'll be a while before those dynamics converge enough that this argument will become useful.

For the same reason you'll find rarely any takers for discussing "why the earth is flat"?

Bitstamp




Bitfinex




Huobi




OKCoin




There's still plenty that can go wrong with the reversal, imo. I'm far from being uber-bullish right now. But on-exchange volume is the best we've seen in ages.

No, that's a misunderstanding then: I'm not saying "Coinbase can be valued rather high because it could survive without Bitcoin". Of course it can't.

But Bitcoin markets dynamics, our markets, determine the money supply (in USD terms) of the network. Stock market dynamics determine the valuation of Coinbase.

So an argument saying "Coinbase is worth 10% of Bitcoin as a whole" is, as top comment points out, comparing apples to oranges, imo.

Correct. The title's implied conclusion, that BTC is undervalued, from the Coinbase valuation is probably not valid.

Coinbase @400M USD, just as a standalone statement, is however pretty bullish

I'll play Eurotrash's method's advocate for a moment

Original thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=568760

Re: Ryn's remark of false signals coming in at the "spikes"... that was a point of discussion in the thread above. We were discussing if some type of smoothing of the tx $volume line (red line) might help (aminorex suggested regression over a rolling time window), but on second view, I'm not so sure that's really the solution: the "spike" earlier this year was a bad signal, while a similar spike in 2011 quite accurately signaled the end of the 2011 bear market.

Ultimately, the method probably still needs refinement (I also remembering pointing out that I'm not convinced it's a good idea that the 200000 constant is "fixed" globally over time, instead of updated), but I /do/ think Eurotrash is onto something - if I understand it right the signal essentially says: going by the established velocity of money of the Bitcoin network, current per unit valuation is no longer enough to support the current transfer volume, i.e. an application of the Velocity Of Money/Money Supply formula.

Nice one, ET. I remember your method

Maybe link to the original discussion, so people understand the importance of the crossing , and the motivation of the constant you're using.

Haha, no... master = masterluc = lucif = 80% of the time it pays off to pay attention to the guy

If total beginner, and goal is just to get the basics:

Tutorials from babypips (mentioned already).

To look up individual indicators/tools in an intuitive, non-math heavy way: investopedia.com


If more advanced already, and goal is to get a more complete understanding of TA:

A solid book on TA is:
Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist. Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians

And a website going into more technical details about individual indicators:
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

Since we seem to be playing 'Predict the mid term outlook', here's my contest entry... roadmap of the next month(s), roughly along the daily MA20/50/200.

Don't get too hung up about the exact extension of the SMAs I drew in, they're naturally imprecise, and just serve to illustrate the big picture of support and resistances.

Similar for the time frame. I put the "SMA200 decision point" probably too far into the future. More likely actually we'll get there towards the end of 2014/January 2015 than March 2015 where it's in my graph - I just needed the space to draw in the trend outlines I see as possible, maybe likely.



What's the take home message I'm trying to describe here?

1) Mainly based on volume during the $275 capitulation, and volume/price action since then, I expect to see a test of SMA200 before making a new low. In other words: (a) we're going up significantly before (b) we're going down significantly. My odds for (a) vs (b): ~ 2:1.

2) There are two ways to get to SMA200: (a) the slow, painful route (full of retests of the slower MA50), and (b) the faster one, where we're (mainly) staying above MA20. My odds for (a) vs. (b): ~ 3:2.

3) Once we get to SMA200, two ways to decide if we break into a "real" rally: (a) with a substantial price drop, likely aiming for MA50 again, or (b) without it. Odds (a) vs. (b): (depends on the way we get there, but under my current assumptions): ~ 2:1

4) We'll break and stay above MA200 (a), or we're falling back below (b) (possibly towards a new, sub 275 low). Odds: No idea right now. Heavily depends on volume/price action on the way there, and once we get there.

tl;dr I expect MA200 test, mid term, but it'll be a rocky road to get there.

I have to ask, or it's going to eat my alive: what's the difference between a drop loss and a stop loss?

Is it related to a timid order? Or a barge in account?

That is exactly where EW excels, in my opinion.

I remember, late last year, when our own master said that he thinks we're about to see the "end of the historical bull market since BTC trading began".

That's something that simply didn't even cross my mind at the time.

EW is fantastic as a tool at sharpening your intuition and making you consider all (or almost all) possible future market pictures, bullish, bearish, and in between.

People who dismiss EW as useless because "10 different people get 10 different counts" simply never realized that in order to successfully weigh all possible future outcomes by likelihood (i.e. making a prediction), you first have to consider all possible outcomes. And that's where the EW counts come in.

Possible. Not saying I find it likely, but possible.

Note that if my momentum signal comes in early enough during your hypothetical (5) - similar to where it came in (3) -  it would still be profitable overall, and not a mistake to enter now.

But I guess we don't disagree on that point, just where we're heading in the longer term, i.e. on the question if we're going to make a new low sub-275 or not. I say 'probably not', you say 'probably yes'.

Of course

300 to 320 would be the region where it would flip again after a while, but everything so far is just noise when looked at from the trend scale of this signal.

Looks like you got your pullback... Still planning to buy in?