Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Eastbay]

fake out or real thing? this could start a drop, hmm or just a bulltrap?

[galdur]

fake out or real thing? this could start a drop, hmmm

Well, the constantly microscopic volume is always a concern for BTC bulls I guess.

[N12]

Damn. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2mh7dk/valuations_coinbase_400_mil_bitcoin_4000_mil_so/

what the commentor is saying, it is like comparing apples to oranges

Correct. The title's implied conclusion, that BTC is undervalued, from the Coinbase valuation is probably not valid.

Coinbase @400M USD, just as a standalone statement, is however pretty bullish

It's absolutely valid IMO. The commenters on r/bitcoin have their mind clouded by the bear market the same way it was clouded during the rise. I'm surprised at the reaction, but at the same time glad that the sentiment is so bearish because it shows how much potential there's left for the move, even within the context of what could be a bear market rally.

The whole just has to be greater than the sum of its parts, the whole being the BTC asset/numeraire and the parts being exclusively Bitcoin dealing companies.

The argument that Coinbase is valued much more highly because it could survive a Bitcoin death but carry on with other cryptocurrencies is a joke: Go to coinmarketcap.com and look at the rest. The market isn't very worried about the contenders. Plus, even if Bitcoin were to die, this would definitely reduce the value of whatever usurping cryptocurrency there is, and thus the value of Coinbase. So, the risk of Bitcoin dying isn't negated for Coinbase investors, only reduced at best.

[adaseb]

Taking some profit off the table. Converting back to fiat. Looks like it will go down further.

[galdur]

So, how about spending some time on discussing why BTC has no volume to speak of month after month.

[oda.krell]

Damn. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2mh7dk/valuations_coinbase_400_mil_bitcoin_4000_mil_so/

what the commentor is saying, it is like comparing apples to oranges

Correct. The title's implied conclusion, that BTC is undervalued, from the Coinbase valuation is probably not valid.

Coinbase @400M USD, just as a standalone statement, is however pretty bullish

It's absolutely valid IMO. The commenters on r/bitcoin have their mind clouded by the bear market the same way it was clouded during the rise. I'm surprised at the reaction, but at the same time glad that the sentiment is so bearish because it shows how much potential there's left for the move, even within the context of what could be a bear market rally.

The whole just has to be greater than the sum of its parts, the whole being the BTC asset/numeraire and the parts being exclusively Bitcoin dealing companies.

The argument that Coinbase is valued much more highly because it could survive a Bitcoin death but carry on with other cryptocurrencies is a joke: Go to coinmarketcap.com and look at the rest. The market isn't very worried about the contenders. Plus, even if Bitcoin were to die, this would definitely reduce the value of whatever usurping cryptocurrency there is, and thus the value of Coinbase. So, the risk of Bitcoin dying isn't negated for Coinbase investors, only reduced at best.

No, that's a misunderstanding then: I'm not saying "Coinbase can be valued rather high because it could survive without Bitcoin". Of course it can't.

But Bitcoin markets dynamics, our markets, determine the money supply (in USD terms) of the network. Stock market dynamics determine the valuation of Coinbase.

So an argument saying "Coinbase is worth 10% of Bitcoin as a whole" is, as top comment points out, comparing apples to oranges, imo.

[justusranvier]

So, how about spending some time on discussing why BTC has no volume to speak of month after month.

BTC trading volume near an all time high on the monthly scale, with a clear 5 year long uptrend isn't good enough for you?

http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/5y?r=month&t=a&volume_unit=btc

[oda.krell]

So, how about spending some time on discussing why BTC has no volume to speak of month after month.

For the same reason you'll find rarely any takers for discussing "why the earth is flat"?

Bitstamp




Bitfinex




Huobi




OKCoin




There's still plenty that can go wrong with the reversal, imo. I'm far from being uber-bullish right now. But on-exchange volume is the best we've seen in ages.

[N12]

What I'm saying is there's a link between Bitcoin market cap and market cap of companies that deal exclusively or mainly in Bitcoin. So that if there were twenty (hell, ten or five would be sufficient as well due to synergy and other factors besides companies) Coinbases and they were valued the same, then one can definitely argue that Bitcoin is undervalued.

It should be relatively analogous to any national currency, or perhaps gold. If all the companies who have to do exclusively with gold would be worth as much as all the gold in the world, that would be pretty insane, no?

[superresistant]

 
I'm hodling like a man.

[galdur]

So, how about spending some time on discussing why BTC has no volume to speak of month after month.

BTC trading volume near an all time high on the monthly scale, with a clear 5 year long uptrend isn't good enough for you?

http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/5y?r=month&t=a&volume_unit=btc

Well, compared to stocks and forex it´s just pocket lint.

So, why doesn´t BTC have any volume to speak of ?

What keeps big investors off ?

Is it the totally unregulated and scam-ridden marketplace ?

Is it the primitive "exchanges" , which may or may not
exist tomorrow ?

[Phillis]

meh closed the long, looks like we may go sideways for a bit

[BldSwtTrs]

Coinbase value comes from its expected future discounted cash flows.

Where do the future cash flows of Coinbase come from? From Bitcoin utilization.

There is a link imo. And the future cash flows of Coinbase are riskier than future Bitcoin utilization because Coinbase have competitors whereas BTC has no credible one.

[N12]

And the future cash flows of Coinbase are riskier than future Bitcoin utilization because Coinbase have competitors whereas BTC have no credible one.

Great point, I hadn't even considered that. Bitpay is certainly more of a competitor to Coinbase than any current altcoin to Bitcoin.

[justusranvier]

Well, compared to stocks and forex it´s just pocket lint.

So, why doesn´t BTC have any volume to speak of ?

What keeps big investors off ?

Is it the totally unregulated and scam-ridden marketplace ?

Is it the primitive "exchanges" , which may or may not
exist tomorrow ?

Bitcoin is developing in a way that makes it naturally more resistant to those parasites.

I hope they stay away for as long as long as possible.

Let them stay in their own little sandbox and eventually 100% of the paper that nobody else wants.

[NotLambchop]

It seems the order is finally being restored.
Though all four of pig's trotters may occasionally leave the ground, this is not to be mistaken for flight.
Gentlemen.

[Thomas-s]

It seems the order is finally being restored.
Though all four of pig's trotters may occasionally leave the ground, this is not to be mistaken for flight.
Gentlemen.

Heh, will quote you in a few days  

[oda.krell]

Re: Coinbase valuation. I'm not saying the company's valuation (or those of other Bitcoin companies) is unrelated to network valuation, but I am pointing out that a 1:1 comparison ("it's way too high at 10% of BTC mcap") is naive, in my opinion. Two (so far) largely unrelated market dynamics determine the value of one and and the other, and it'll be a while before those dynamics converge enough that this argument will become useful.

[Eastbay]

fake out or real thing? this could start a drop, hmmm

Well, the constantly microscopic volume is always a concern for BTC bulls I guess.

i wouldnt consider myself a btc bull, im a btc trader and i care about trends and price, your right though, no crazy volume yet... just wondering if its time to close that long and go the other way... hmm

this helps alot, save it as a website (html) and it gives you a four way split of bitcoinwisdom charts, top bitfinex and bitstamp and bottom is chinese exchanges okcoin and huobi

i modified the code but someone else came up with the design, you can put in any bitcoinwisdom chart

Code:

  
<html>

<head>

<!-- Hi there! Donate btc @ 1NSQLY2XmvhXdd2iFVa8m2UWHzNSe6eN1G :) If you rip this site please give credit, thanks! -->
<meta charset="UTF-8">

<meta name=%26quot%3Bdescription%26quot%3B content="2x2 Darkcoin Chart Layout" />
<title>BTC CHARTS</title>

<style type="text/css">

body {margin:0px; padding:0px;}

.Table {display: table; width: 100%; height: 100%;}

.Row {display: table-row; width: 100%; height: 50%;}

.Cell {display: table-cell; overflow: hidden;}

.Cell iframe {height:107%; width:118%; border: 0px;}

</style>
</head>

<body>
<div class="Table">
<div class="Row">

<div class="Cell"><iframe src="https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd" seamless></iframe></div>

<div class="Cell"><iframe src="https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd" seamless></iframe></div>

</div>

<div class="Row">

<div class="Cell"><iframe src="https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/btccny" seamless></iframe></div>

<div class="Cell"><iframe src="https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny" seamless></iframe></div>

</div>

</div>
</body>

</html>

[NotLambchop]

It seems the order is finally being restored.
Though all four of pig's trotters may occasionally leave the ground, this is not to be mistaken for flight.
Gentlemen.

Heh, will quote you in a few days  

Your fanatical conviction is powerless against the scientific inevitability of unfolding history.
Don't die for your puppet masters--stop fighting the war you can not win.