Because you can read, because you've read people here say that they've not been paid. You know that you can't say with complete confidence that "Scrypt.cc pays. FACT". You know that some people haven't been paid, yet you claim otherwise.

Except you don't. Unless you're just posting here and not actually reading anything.

So their withdrawals were cancelled and "reinvested". They wanted to make a withdrawal, but they were unable. It is not at all clear to me how you can seriously claim that cancelled withdrawals were anything other than cancelled. They wanted their money back - they were prevented from getting their money back.

Except it doesn't pay everyone, and by failing to acknowledge that you're promoting the ideas that it's safe to invest at scrypt.cc - and, again, if you read this thread you can see that that's not something you can say with any confidence.

Awesome. But you've not addressed anything I said in my post.

Edit: quote tree pruned.

That word, "FACT". It would be more useful if it was backed by - you know - an actual fact.

I think what you really meant to say was something like "Two posters claim to have been paid by scrypt.cc but many, many more claim the exact opposite. Is scrypt.cc is being selective about who it pays? Can you afford to take the risk?"

The thing is, when you post breathlessly enthusiastic posts like you do, you're encouraging others to take risks. You're complicit in any losses they make. And yet, reading what so many people have posted here, you seem quite happy to continue to paint a rosy picture. That's pretty shameful.

I think the answer may lie somewhere between these two views. We have to have money on exchange at various points if we're traders, or even, for many people, if we're simply buying BTC. Post-Gox (at least) we know to consider exchange risk, and to mitigate it by limiting money on exchange, and spreading money between exchanges.

But part of managing risk is adapting when things change or more data becomes available. Right now I don't really know what's going on at Bitfinex. It doesn't feel to me like the last days of MtGox, but that hopeful instinct isn't enough for me to consider it safe for me right now.

I'm not advocating withdrawing everything from every exchange, I'm not really advocating anyone do anything other than manage their own risk. However, there clearly are problems with Bitfinex's trading engine and one way to send a message to Bitfinex that this is not acceptable - is to vote with our feet and take our trading business - and our money - to another exchange.

Edit: apologies, randy8777, I didn't address your point about trading options. That's a fair point. However, I think incidents like this often act as the catalyst for alternatives developing. There are already alternatives to margin trading, though they're not well developed at this stage - I'm hopeful that that'll change.

Is Karpeles a developer? Genuine question - I remember MtGox getting bought out and moving to Japan, but I thought the idea was that Karpeles was a businessman (allegedly) and he was going to hire devs to replace Jed.

Sure, but there's a huge difference between a couple of years and a couple of months. Non-BTC currency pairs obviously have a degree of volatility. My point is that that volatility tends to decrease as a currency pair becomes more actively traded. I'm not saying that USD/RUB is static - I'm saying that because it is more heavily traded than BTC/USD it is more stable/less volatile than BTC/USD. Two years to go from ~30 rubles to the dollar to ~60 rubles/$ isn't quite the same as two months for BTC to go from USD 166 to USD 300.

No ideas, but I think if you need to ask the question - you should exit sharply. For what it's worth I'm almost out - more through luck than skill though. 1 BTC left on swaps, which I'll withdraw ASAP.

Just to be clear - I'm not on the boat, and I'm not getting on the boat. I don't know whether the captain is a crook or an idiot, but the boat is clearly leaky, the plimsole line is barely visible, and I can see flames coming out the funnel. If I was still on the boat - whether or not my fare had been repaid - I'd be looking to disembark as quickly as possible to protect the value of my luggage.

I don't want any more lines on my forehead - I'll keep my BTC somewhere where I do have control over it. I couldn't enjoy the ride if that wasn't the case, and I really sympathise with the poor punters who still have BTC tied up in this. Much less sympathy for the "useful idiots" who bizarrely keep holding the faith, implicitly encouraging more suckers to clamber aboard the good ship scrypt.cc.

At this point have you received back more than you've paid in? I believe what most people here are concerned about is that they won't - instead they'll receive (if they're lucky) a drip of diminishing credits that makes ROI ever more distant/unlikely.

Aha! Bullish on volatility, I like that. Can I suggest a Long Strangle or a Long Straddle? Unlimited profit if price rises or falls, limited loss if the price remains semi-static.


Aha! Bearish on volatility, I respect that - a bit of stability would be nice after the recent roller-coaster ride. Can I suggest an Iron Condor or an Iron Butterfly? Limited profit if your low-volatility prediction holds, limited losses if it doesn't.

Wait -

You still laughing about it? 'cause it kinda sounds like you were laughing about something you hadn't read, and you got caught out again.

It wasn't a prediction of price. He even ended the OP with the words: "Once again the figures aren't right, its the magnitude of the moves you might have to go through that is the message." This is a prediction of volatility (it'll continue to be high, in his view).

Kisses xxx !

/innocentface

You don't think BTC's high volatility will continue?

Ah, you want it to be one of those arguments. Sorry, I warned you I expected you to address my first and only point before I played with you. Life's too short to waste on schoolyard sophistry when there are genuinely clever people I could be engaging with. If you change your mind, however, I'm here.

That's all very interesting, but it doesn't address my key (and, indeed, only) point: when you said BTC wasn't very effective for bypassing restrictive currency restrictions, I showed BTC effectively bypassing the PRC's currency restrictions. why don't you address that first, and then I might choose to move on to your new tangent.

Some one should tell China that -> http://fiatleak.com/ <- I don't think they got the memo.

Maybe they lost their wallet password... they should sue.

I don't know how people use swaps in general ***, but for me I don't tend to keep my money on exchange. I use swaps when the rate makes it worth the risk I'm taking, which is only really when the rate spikes. At that point I'll pile in that part of my BTC I've set aside for this (an amount I can afford to lose if the worst happened) and try and get the highest rates I can for as long as possible. Most of the swaps will be closed pretty quickly, and unless rates remain high that's the point I move BTC back to my wallet. (This is BTC that - when it's not out on swaps - I'll use for speculation).

My native currency isn't USD, so I'm less inclined to sit with USD (I'm long-term bullish on BTC), and I've not really followed the USD swaps market, but the risk for me would be that BTC/USD rises - leaving me with USD I don't need instead of BTC! It makes my position much more complex - instead of going long on BTC and taking advantage of shorts, I'd be shorting BTC and then lending USD to people with the same outlook as me. That seems way too risky, even with a higher swap rate.

Edit: *** I'm fairly certain I do know how most people use swaps - they pile everything into the FRR and hope they get lucky.

As price shoots down, demand for BTC to short rises. The swap rate will likely skyrocket - typically it's 0.0055% (daily), it went up to 0.0165% a week ago and then came down almost as fast as it went up. In the past we've seen peak rates as high as 0.4%, but the long-term trend seems to be for the peaks to be lower.

Edit: it's probably much clearer visually! https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc <- look at the "FRR" rate on the bottom graph, particularly on 12-month or all time.