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841  Economy / Economics / Re: What are they hiding from us? on: November 05, 2020, 04:31:42 AM
The question should be what are they talking about inflation at 1%, are they expecting us to hallucinating some magical number out of the dust,  and eventually everything, EVERYTHING, that’s include rent, house price, land price, tax rate, food price, loan rate, land price, everything price on everything 1%!!!

It's an average increase... Not everything goes up by a stable amount or at the same time.

For example https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23 uses a indice to track how much the average retail cost reflects on consumers afaik.

In the US we have a similar index to track consumer inflation, but the "basket of goods" they track isn't always very indicative of what people are consuming most, especially during the pandemic when consumer behaviors have deviated greatly from the norm. 
842  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin the best reserve asset? on: November 05, 2020, 04:28:59 AM
Quote
An excellent way to evaluate any investment is to take $100 million and move it forward a hundred years and ask the question what happens. If I had $100 million worth of currency in any of the largest cities of the world in the year 1900, and I went forward for 100 years, and I put the money into the best bank in the city, I have two types of risks; counterparty risks and inflation risk. Regarding counterparty risk, every major bank in every major city around the world failed in 100 years. And that is a 90% probability you lose everything

100 years is a pretty meaningless time horizon to look at inflation since nobody lives that long.  Even in shorter time frames where you're looking at still a "long time horizon" (perhaps 50 years), people don't hold cash that long.  People with enough excess cash invest it.  People without investable cash are constantly spending the cash they have. In short, nobody suffers the inflation rates touted for the USD.

843  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Treasuries on: November 05, 2020, 04:20:44 AM
There is one thing I'm curious about it and it might be interesting to observe, that's if the info will be available which it should in my opinion.

With all the news about PayPal, I was wondering about something, Revolut offers currently the same thing as PayPal will do at the start and they claim they are holding the equivalent of your bitcoins with their custodian. But Revolut is a privately owned company so they don't have to publish any data about this, Paypal, on the other hand, is a public company so not only can they be audited but they are also as far as I know bound to make an annual report on their business.

Does that mean that at the end of the year we're going to be able to see how much BTC are they holding for their customers?
This is going to be pretty interesting, if it's like that can we expect this to happen at the end of 2020?

I have a feeling it won't be that informative. Financial statements are generally stated in fiat terms. All of the cryptocurrencies Paypal holds would probably be lumped together in fiat terms under a line item like "intangible assets." Apparently that's how Square is reporting their holdings, although I'm not 100% clear on the accounting nuances involved. https://www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchandrasekera/2020/05/21/how-are-cryptocurrencies-classified-in-gaap-financials/#50d7b93565b2

The financial statements, perhaps not if they lump it into intangible assets. My suspicion is that they will break it out as a sub-line under this though.  If they don't do this, there will be other reports where they spell out specifics on what they hold filed with the SEC (if they're a public company) because they're still under obligation to report information investors would find material to the business, and if they're holding a lot of btc that would qualify.
844  Other / Archival / Re: Hong Kong bans retail trading of digital currencies on: November 05, 2020, 04:07:46 AM
I believe that most exchanges will choose to move out of this region and place their headquarter in places where laws are less strict. The mandate is essential if we want to integrate bitcoin and other cryptos into our daily life. But If it is an austere regulation, it will force people to stay away from these digital assets. IMO, these rules are not likely innovations at all.

Fighting regulation is a losing proposition. Those trying to avoid regulation are on the wrong side, they just haven't realized it yet. Exchanges will go where the customers are, and leaving a jurisdiction doesn't exempt you from operating under the laws of that jurisdiction when you serve those customers. And customers will more and more demand operators to be regulated.
845  Economy / Economics / Re: rich people super rich are taking loans now why? what it means ? on: October 25, 2020, 11:22:14 AM
The reason why rich people take loans is because many business people including the government are affected by the epidemic and they take loans to increase their business and investment. The government is giving low interest loans to banks to improve the economy of their country so every business is taking loans to make a profit besides rich people are trying to take loans from banks by emphasizing on increasing revenue collection this year to alleviate the financial crisis due to low revenue collection.

Low interest rate loans are the biggest factor in loan activity. It's been over a decade since the interest rates have not been artificially super low. The economy is super leveraged because money has been essentially free to borrow (compared to historical norms).
846  Economy / Economics / Re: Real estate vs. Bitcoin on: October 25, 2020, 11:19:32 AM
Real estates prices are declining during this pandemic mainly because the owners are in need and are desperate for money, hence opting to sell their properties for much lower price than it should be.



Depends on the sector. Residential real estate not so much. Prices are at an all time high in most places in the US despite the pandemic. Commercial real estate is another matter. Big city skyscrapers are having trouble right now, but even some retail is still decent.
847  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit – The original crash game on: October 25, 2020, 11:15:55 AM
i forgot that i could be a bankroll in bustabit do you think it's a good time now to invest to the bustabit's bankroll? i've seen that some whales are showing up in the bustabit and getting some profit then goes away do you think that would cost a lot to bankroll investors?

Only invest if your time horizon is very long, on the order of a year or more. That length of time smooths out any volatility you might experience in shorter time frames when big players gamble. The more bets that are placed, the closer you would expect the profit margin to equal the house edge, and the way to get enough bets to make this mathematically likely is to have a very long investment timeframe.
848  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🏈 NITROGEN SPORTS | NFL Survivor Pools with over 30 BTC* in GTD prizes! 🏈 on: October 25, 2020, 05:21:58 AM
...
If I deposit $100 and play the full amount ($100 bet) did I or did I not meet the full rollover requirement?


Hello, if there were any confusion, I apologize.

Your example is correct and you should meet the full rollover requirement.


Thank you for the clarification. That's exactly what I wanted to know.

So, as jaysabi pointed out, your previous statement was wrong? Maybe you should retract or explain in more detail (maybe your statement was meant for deposit bonuses or something...).

...
If player deposits $100 and bets it all, winning $50, the player still needs to play the $50 before being able to withdraw.


maybe its just me but i wouldnt ever play on a book whose representatives have a hard time explaining their rollover requirements, i dont think its incompetence, its deliberately vague

I'm giving the benefit of the doubt in this case. It seems like it is a misunderstanding, perhaps where they have a clear understanding of what "rollover" means but are just not doing a good job of defining it for the rest of us. There are currently two examples support has used as how it works but they don't agree with each other, so this needs to be reconciled.
849  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges Reducing on: October 25, 2020, 05:12:52 AM
Not to mention that exchanges have been known to socialise losses whenever there's a bad crash or liquidity wipe -- thereby literally reducing the account balance you have on Bitcoin. Can't recall the exact names but we've had some big names in the space in past few years do this.

That really only applies to active positions held on leveraged derivative markets, like futures or perpetual swaps. It can happen because the market depth can be too thin to absorb all the highly leveraged positions.

I guess it could technically happen on spot exchanges that allow leverage, like Bitfinex or Coinbase Pro, but the leverage offered is so low that it's extremely unlikely and historically has never happened. It's impossible on regular spot exchanges that don't offer leverage.

Hasn't this also pretty regularly happened in cases where exchanges have been hacked or otherwise lost coins? Not due to leverage, but just everyday run of the mill bad cybersecurity or poor management. The risks compound on each other- volatility, leverage, and having a third-party custody your coins. All could lead to loss of value for investors, and amplify losses when caused by any individually. 
850  Economy / Economics / Re: usa goverment 3.13 tril. defict its enough? on: October 25, 2020, 05:04:14 AM
i have traveled and lived many countries myself seen things seen life from my perspective the currencies might fall yes but saying that usa dollar will be devalued i can tell you that china yuan is less useless then USD the usa dollar still has big market.
usa dollar is king of the fiat curriencies and btc is king of crypto.
Before the dollar falling there might many other currencies what can fall down first i think so.
i think russian ruble and usa dollars are both very needed since russia got resources what everybody want and usa is just reservecurreny.
Yeah, at least not for now as I mentioned year by year, I'll just say that since china is the 2nd richest by GDP after US, and look how they managed this pandemic regardless where the virus origins while other including USA are still struggling

China may have the second largest economy but that doesn't mean they are the second richest. The have well over a billion people, you would expect the economy to be big an a pure GDP basis. However, the standard of living or GDP per capita puts them far below many other more advanced economies in Europe and some in Asia, like Japan and Singapore.
851  Economy / Economics / Re: Venezuela Planning New 100,000-Bolivar Bills Worth Just $0.23 on: October 25, 2020, 05:00:38 AM
What happens is a classic case of overcompensation, a good deal of governments on Latin America are corrupt and enrich those that are in power and their friends, obviously this is unfair and people eventually elect a populist president that says he will give them everything they want, unfortunately this goes against basic economic principles and instead of stopping a series of expropriations, money printing and debt follows destroying the economy on the process.

Giving unlimited handouts is a bad idea. Even oil rich nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have realized this, and now they are slowly moving away from those policies. In case of Venezuela, when the oil prices were high the Hugo Chavez regime distributed all the budget surplus as handouts. The government never cared to setup a rainy day fund, so that they could use it in case the oil prices go down. In the end, the oil prices went down, and the government treasury was bone dry by then.
Without a doubt it is a bad idea but this is just more evidence the average person does not understand basic economic principles, it seems they think that just because governments are bigger than they are they can spend all the money they want and this is not true, governments still need to follow the same principles that any normal family would, they need to spend less than what they get on taxes and keep something for a rainy day as you say, but politicians are nothing more but a reflection of the society that elects them, so if the population does not understand this the politician most likely does not as well or at least does not care and that is how it begins the economic debacle of most countries.

Politicians constantly fail to lead. It's far easier to continue deficit spending than to balance the budget and make the hard decisions that need to be made in order to do so, especially since the only way to do this is to cut spending or raise taxes.  In the US, the budget is so unbalanced that it would take drastic spending cuts and drastic tax increases to balance the budget. The average person is generally too stupid to realize that failure to act now makes the situation worse in the future, and something will eventually give, and politicians are only interested in getting elected, so nobody is going to run on a platform of doing what needs to be done to get our finances in order.
852  Economy / Economics / Re: Waiters/Waitresses/bellboys etc just lost their jobs on: October 25, 2020, 04:56:35 AM
Unfortunately this is how the civilization works.New technology replaces human labor.People,who work in low and minimum wage jobs and are performing repetitive tasks are pretty much screwed.
However,I don't believe that this Spot Robot will be mass adopted by the small businesses anytime soon.

That's the reason why people are afraid of immediate advancement of technology due to that kind of issue.

Unemployment can really increase when we engage into a more advance and developed industry with the use of innovated machines and robots.

But we need to accept the fact that there is always changes when there's a time. We need to accept that our community should adapt on the things where it can make our lives easier and better with the use of technology. Human labor is also important but what can we do if we need to adapt in that kind of technology to help our economy grow better, especially in terms of production.

Jobs constantly become obsolete and disappear. This causes hiccups in the short term on an individual level, but the economy is constantly evolving and creating new industries and new jobs. People having been warning that the economy was facing ruin ever since the start of very efficient, mass-production factories in the 1940s. We've never reached the economic apocalypse on account of jobs disappearing because new jobs that people previously couldn't have imagined came into existence. There's no reason to think the doomsayers are right this time either.
853  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin will replace oil and Gold on: October 24, 2020, 05:25:03 AM
In the past few decades bitcoin has been flourishing well but it’s wont be fair to compare Bitcoin to natural resources. Gold and oil is a old as man and it’s a natural gift from God to man. The awareness of Gold and oil is throughout the world unlike Bitcoin that is still been known and considered by some countries and government. The value for Gold and Oil can’t be overemphasized as its use is domestic and industrial.

A few questions to ask.can bitcoin move my car? Can bitcoin generate power supply? Can bitcoin be used for jewelry or ornaments? How long would it take a decentralized currency to be appropriated by the whole world?
Gold has been the store for value since ancient time and it’s use and value remains appreciated by everyone in the world. Oil remains an irreplaceable element to man and its purpose can’t be undermined as its uses is numerous and economical. Gold and oil is been governed and controlled by centralized government and many institutions has been formed from these products.

Lots of multinational companies has since been involved in oil activities, Oil as a natural product have been studied and mined since history. Oil has been the economic strength of some nations around the world, example Nigeria since her independent is dependent on their oil sector for her economic and structural developments. Gold as a natural substance is still being controlled by the centralized governments around the world and its value continue to increase even on a daily basis. The price of Bitcoin will continue to rise and fall based on market strategy so at what point would it be at equilibrium to  Gold and oil?

If you think about it, there's not much separating bitcoin and gold though.  Gold has some intrinsic value because it's used in certain applications even outside of jewelry, but gold basically has been a store of value for the same reason that people are hoping bitcoin will be, and that is that a large group of people all arbitrarily agree it's valuable. In this respect, gold and bitcoin are quite the same.
854  Economy / Economics / Re: Real estate vs. Bitcoin on: October 24, 2020, 05:22:02 AM
I would prefer to invest in real estate. At least this market is much more predictable and stable than crypto. And it is growing despite the economic crisis, just look here how many new homes are building now. Crypto is not the best way to go.
You want to invest in real estate, it is a safer investment channel than crypto is absolutely right but you need a large capital. The cryptocurrency market is more risky but effective faster and the amount you need to invest may not be too large, but you can make a lot of money in not too long time.

There are ways to invest in real estate without buying the actual real estate. REITs are publicly traded securities that invest in real estate and pay out the earnings from renting the property as dividends. You can invest $100 or even less at a time into REITs, so not necessarily true that you need a large capital investment in order to get exposure to real asset as an investment class.
855  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🏈 NITROGEN SPORTS | NFL Survivor Pools with over 30 BTC* in GTD prizes! 🏈 on: October 24, 2020, 05:09:52 AM
The Nitrogen sports still not clear about their 1x rollover but managed to assess one users concern. Well it's good since at least they are replying to user's concern it's a good priority however, I think you should make things clear about the promotion since I think many users are interested with this.

Well, the question is not about promotions and bonuses, but simple deposits.  The terms and conditions clearly state 1x rollover requirement on the deposit before withdrawal. I have no idea why NitrogenSports representative here is trying to explain something different... so I will repeat my question until I get a clear answer:

If I deposit $100 and play the full amount ($100 bet) did I or did I not meet the full rollover requirement?


Hello, if there were any confusion, I apologize.

Your example is correct and you should meet the full rollover requirement.


Sorry, not trying to cause problems but can you clarify this further?  Here you said that if you bet $100 you have rolled over the full amount.  Earlier you said if you bet $100 to win $50 you need to still roll over $50.  These two statements are not consistent.

Is the rollover of a deposit based on how much is BET or how much is WON on a bet?

Obviously this has the potential to make a big difference depending on if you're betting on a huge favorite.  If you only have to RISK the full deposit in order for it to be "rolled over," this is very different than you having to WIN the amount of the deposit in bets before it is "rolled over."

This difference is what everyone is trying to understand- specifically what "rolled over" means.
856  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin will replace oil and Gold on: October 22, 2020, 11:00:20 PM
I doubt Bitcoin can replace oil and gold, because both have been used for thousands of years. Indeed, for now investing in Bitcoin is
more profitable than investing in oil and gold, but because Bitcoin cannot be controlled by the government. So the government definitely
prefers oil and gold over Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin will probably only be used as an investment alternative, after all, Bitcoin's popularity is
still below oil and gold. There are still many people who don't understand Bitcoin, so it's too early to mention Bitcoin will replace oil and gold.

Crude oil is pretty new in terms of human history.  It wasn't a major part of the economy or of much importance at all until the industrial revolution.  Gold has thousands of years of history as a store of value. Bitcoin may eventually become a dependable store of value, but the use case for it is extremely low on a practical level. Almost nobody uses it for anything other than speculation at this point due to the wild price swings. It's just another form of gambling.
857  Economy / Economics / Re: Are online communities dead ? I can't find online communities to advertise ... on: October 22, 2020, 10:50:15 PM
This community is generally pretty good. Reddit's bitcoin subreddit is also good. Both of these forums seem like they are tempered with a healthy dose of skeptics to keep it from being a giant fanboy circlejerk.  The more general cryptocurrency sub on reddit seems to have gone downhill a bit since Moons were introduced and now that they're able to be converted to other cryptos.  It's created an atmosphere of Moon farming, which deteriorates the quality of the sub.  You see the same thing here with the signature campaigns.  Honestly, this forum would probably be better without them.
858  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges Reducing on: October 21, 2020, 07:25:38 PM
One indicator is telling me that Bitcoin is preparing for a new major bull run and we are still early.

If we look statistics from 2010 number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges was mostly growing up until February 2020, with few breaks in 2017 and 2018.

Since February 2020 we can see clear reducing number of Bitcoins from Exchanges, and withdrawing to personal wallets.

This is good for many reasons, but most important is that people are in control of their bitcoins.

Bitcoin on exchanges from 2010 - 2020

https://glassnode.com/

Bitcoin on exchanges from October 2019 - October 2020

https://glassnode.com/




One data point doesn't even make a correlation, let alone a case of causation.  At least you have a thesis to rely on that can be tested over time, not like some of these chart fundamentalist quacks running around promising they know where btc is going to trade because they drew a line connecting a couple points on a graph. But you'll need far more data than what you've presented before anyone takes this theory seriously.
859  Economy / Economics / Re: Waiters/Waitresses/bellboys etc just lost their jobs on: October 21, 2020, 05:29:52 PM
Waiters/Waitresses/bellboys etc just lost their jobs

Spot Price 74500 USD
Human BellBoy salary 1000-3000 usd / month ( developed countries )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlkCQXHEgjA


74500 usd / 3000 = in around 25 months i will recover my investment with Spot as a hotel owner ,no more need for human worker ...

----------------------------

Boston Dynamics Undecided




What an alarmist and ridiculous post. There's no way the robot in the video can replace a bellboy or a waiter. The robot can walk and avoid obstacles and pick itself up after it falls. That's a far cry from doing all of the things a human is capable of doing, doing better, and doing 25 times faster. There'll probably be a use for these robots when they're far more developed and capable. What was shown isn't replacing waiters or bellboys.
860  Economy / Economics / Re: Government slowly open the economy, will it make the pandemic worst? on: October 21, 2020, 05:23:57 PM
Some governments have done a poor job educating the people about how to help prevent the spread of the virus, and they've done a poor job for political reasons. People would be able to prevent the spread and the economy would be able to function much better if people followed the medical and scientific advice about minimizing the spread of the virus.  It's almost always the conservative governments or conservative leaders who minimize the risks of the virus or seek to undermine the public response to contain it.
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