I'm still not sure if anyone really knew what a supernode was... Here is my take on a supernode ... Imagine a network of precious metal dealers operating in every major city who now offer their hard-money customers a deflationary store of value - bitcoin. A supernode is such a dealer who also operates a bitcoin network node that can independently mine bitcoins, with or without a pool. The supernode network collectively fixes prices periodically with a long settlement period, routing orders among themselves and to other exchanges, e.g. Mt. Gox, Bitstamp. The supernode network collectively takes other various measures to robustly operate in the face of DDoS, government constraints, etc. |
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The rally from $103 continues to bump along resistance, e.g. plentiful supply at $116.  |
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Here is a mostly sideways trend bumping along mild resistance at $116. If surpassed, stronger resistance is at $120, and beyond that $125.  |
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I was pondering like, as you do, what the continuation of higher lows would look like and I concluded that the obvious next data point would be a bounce off $100. Hey presto, yesterday happened. It looks a little early though thanks to the weak hands selling the news so I think we'll see a double bottom in the next couple of days. Every day we hold above $100 into May is a point for the bulls I believe:  Linear not log as usual bear in mind. is the chart I've been waiting to see. To me, new highs aren't really that important, I mostly have been waiting to see the new bottom. It's provided us with this third critical data point for growth rate, which gives us a better idea of bitcoin's trajectory. I like what it shows. I drew this chart with log prices and show a breakthough. But as the decline appears entirely news-event driven, I am thinking now that this could be a false breakout on my chart. Given my hypothesis of a bubble collapse from April 10, this support trendline must be broken through to the downside by the end of June. Simply going sideways for that length of time would constitute a breakthough on the downside given the steepness of the support line. |
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As this recent drop to $103 was entirely news-driven, I wonder if that after a brief consolidation, and lacking any other follow-on U.S. DHS seizure news, the gentle uptrend of 7 prior days will continue towards resistance near $120.  |
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There was a major post-peak support trendline breakout to the downside on news of Dwolla/Mt.Gox account seisure by DHS. Note the relatively high, bid-wall-busting volume in the last 12 hours. To some extent the support trendline represents the trading belief that the bubble can be re-inflated. With the breakthough to the downside, that trading belief will be weakened, and belief that the bubble may have more collapsing yet ahead will, in contrast, be strengthened.  |
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Will this downdraft be stopped by the support at $100? Remember that back in November, the price was $10.  |
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The impulse downwards paused when it reached the illustrated support trendline, thus adding evidence for the support trendline's existence. The interesting question is whether the strength of this downdraft will be renewed soon and bust down through the support. Trading sentiment will become more bearish if it does.  |
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33 days after the April 10 peakHere is a closer look at the recently completed bearish wedge. The bitcoin rally significantly reversed direction at the indicated resistance trendline. This is the sort of pattern that could initiate the next leg down. Note the very high relative volume. 
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Clarkmoody has died on me
Mine too if it is any comfort. Bitcoinity still OK. |
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Wall busting volume.  |
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There is power to this downdraft.
Hourly volume is already 7000 BTC 10 minutes after the hour.
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Remember that in November one could buy a bitcoin for $10. This downdraft will very likely not go that far.
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What is notable about this drop is how fast the ask walls are following the price downwards. |
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I have Clark Moody's app set to 1 bitcoin audio trade sensitivity - its like a jackhammer! donk-donk-donk-donk-donk-dink-donk.
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Heres a chart from my blog  It will be interesting to see what happens when the price hits this line in the near future. Will we get a bounce up in price. I think there’s a decent chance that may happen and if it does the chart will start to look rather bullish again. If you’ve been sitting out, maybe its soon time to get back into bitcoins? This chart clearly illustrates to me the trader sentiment that the April 10 bubble can be re-inflated. This sentiment should become weaker as peaks at $266, $166, $147 and now $125 remain unsurpassed. |
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Increased volume allowed the rally to more closely approach the ask walls at $120 and $125.  |
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Bitcoin price rose from $114 to $118 with the arrival of modestly higher volume on Sunday evening. The rally is approaching resistance at $118-119 which has withstood several attempts in the past 12 hours.  |
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Short term bear. We are 32 days past the bubble peak and prices have fallen by half - yet remain 8x times greater than back in January when a bitcoin could be purchased for $13.50.
Long term bull - bitcoin will be worth over 100K USD each I believe.
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32 days after the April 10 peakDiminishing volume over the last three days is narrowing the trading range, and sideways price action is more common than earlier in the bubble collapse. There has been a slight downward trend from the recent peak at $125. By the end of this week, the illustrated support line intersects the resistance line at $120. If the price fell through the indicated support line, e.g. below $110 by the end of this week, then that outcome would strengthen the case for continued bubble collapse. Conversely, if prices rally and comply with the indicated support, then that weakens the bear case, especially if recent peaks at $147 and $160 are surpassed. 
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