Yep, confirmed. It was easy to check and see.
Can you show the data you are looking at? I am unaware of any technique that could confirm this, so I'm interested. I think facetious is the term... |
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good for me, but when I click "yes" and type in 0.1 I get 0.1 as reward... Should be 0.2 That's because luigi is waiting for you to place. Once you both place the payout column will update. If you place 0.2 and luigi places 0.2 you will get 0.388 (your stake+luigi's coins - 3% (site fee)) as a payout at the end of the year if you are correct! the bet was *I deposit 0.1 and if I win, I get my deposit back + 0.2 *luigi deposits 0.2 and if he wins, he gets his deposit back + 0.1 So it will work if I deposit 0.1 and he deposits 0.2 ? If yes, then I'll send the funds asap Yes - that is correct. Is a 1% fee agreeable? I just deposited the 0.1 BTC Can't yet see it on the betting page, but I guess it's waiting for confirmations. edit: back on topic  I think we well see a breakout at the end of the month. We will jump to 800 USD in a matter of days, stay there for a while and after that jump to 1200, correction to 950-1000 region and after that... >5000 USD  Whew, the time limit was extended. I hadn't heard back from you, so I went home and totally forgot about even checking the forum, lol. I've deposited 0.2 now. Best of luck! |
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Looks pretty nice. I'm fine with this if he is, but don't want to push him into using any particular service. If he answers here that he's fine using this, I'll deposit 0.2 pronto. |
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Just curious, would you just like the 2 of you privately or would you care to open it to other users (pooled betting)?
If you mean would I be willing to do more of this bet if someone were to take the other side, most certainly. I think dnaleor stated he's as big as he wants be to at this point. Edit: we're kinda cluttering up the thread with this talk though. Carry on... |
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i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens) edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1 Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal. How do we do this? i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets  We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions? edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me Sure, no problem. As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want. Well... You don't really semm to have a trust rating. I generally trust people, but for betting I think an escrow is needed (unless we both have a high trust rating and are semi public figures) I know an escrow who does it for free, it's the moderator from the dutch subforum, psychoticboy. He is very honest. If you want, we can take him. Although I would understand if you don't want him, because I already "know" him and you think he is "biased". Maybe rpietila? After all, this is his topic Yeah, I don't have a trust rating because I don't trade on BCT. I'm fine with Risto, if he wants to. Might be too much bother though. Otherwise we can use your guy. ok, we'll wait if he responds to our request. If not, i'll send psychoticboy a message with you as cc. He does the escrow for free, but appreciate tips. I'll pay the tip Just to be clear before we proceed, the bet is whether Bitcoin will be worth (touch at any point) at least $5,000.01 by 00:00 GMT, Jan 1, 2015? If it breaks $5,000 any time between now and then, it can be payable immediately. Sound good? |
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i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens) edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1 Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal. How do we do this? i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions? edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me Sure, no problem. As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want. Well... You don't really semm to have a trust rating. I generally trust people, but for betting I think an escrow is needed (unless we both have a high trust rating and are semi public figures) I know an escrow who does it for free, it's the moderator from the dutch subforum, psychoticboy. He is very honest. If you want, we can take him. Although I would understand if you don't want him, because I already "know" him and you think he is "biased". Maybe rpietila? After all, this is his topic Yeah, I don't have a trust rating because I don't trade on BCT. I'm fine with Risto, if he wants to. Might be too much bother though. Otherwise we can use your guy. |
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i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens) edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1 Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal. How do we do this? i'm not really a speculator, so I prefer small bets We should find a reliable escrow. Suggestions? edit: you send 0.2 BTC to the escrow, I'll send 0.1 BTC If I win, I get my 0.1 deposit back + 0.2 BTC from you If you win, you get your 0.2 BCT deposit back + 0.1 BTC from me Sure, no problem. As far as escrow, I'm not sure how it works for 5 months, lol. If you're happy with a "gentlemen's bet", that's cool with me (I will deliver on my end; can find some references if you want). We could do something like http://www.futureme.org/ to remind us around Christmas time if you want. |
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i'll do 2:1 for 0.1 BTC that BTC goes above 5000 USD (so I get 0.2 BTC if it happens) edit: this is significantly better for the bears than this bet, it seems: http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/edit2: offer valid for next 24h. if none takes it, i'll change to 3:1 Done. Would you mind going a little larger? If not, no big deal. How do we do this? |
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For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.
We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders. If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed. Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC. For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned : “I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.” I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder "I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo. Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely). Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it.  |
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Apparently, I've made the wrong choices in my life, deciding to have a career that I actually enjoy, and it is clear that I am unwelcome here. Good luck to all of you with Darkcoin. It's a solid coin. It's just too bad the community views anyone who is not anti-establishment as somehow lesser than them and unworthy.
Hopefully that can be overcome. If not, this coin will be doomed to a small niche, and forever stuck hovering around .01.
Hey, man, I'd venture to say most of us "work" and live pretty conventional lives. Camosoul does not. That is his prerogative. To think that we are some cohesive "community" here, and that Camosoul is some sort of unofficial representative thereof is very myopic. We are all individuals acting in accordance to our own wills and ideals. We just happen to be invested into DRK. My suggestion: don't get too worked up over what people say on the internet. Edit: I'd like to retract that. I have no idea what percentage of people do what. |
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I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that.
The reason you will not get any takers on this bet is not because no one believes that 5000 is likely. They simply believe that it would be better to invest 1000 at today's market price and sell at 5000. Same exact risk with much higher possible return. Of course you'll find takers, just not at 50/50; that would be completely stupid. |
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we will see 5000 this year
next year ATH at least 10000, probably higher (20000 - 50000)
I don't see how $5000 is possible, but I am not a betting man. I don't think 5000 USD/BTC is likely to occur in 2014. I'd be willing to bet €1000 against that. I don't think that you would find many takers at any reasonable odds. I'd be willing to do 50:1, just because, but "real" (based on some random finding of historical vol, which is all I have to work with) odds seem to be around 125:1. |
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As usual trolls are desparate trying to find something, anything that they think can be used...
we are donating to make sure someone is using their time reviewing the code, so if there are problems they can be fixed, before darksend is being opensourced, its quite simple actually...
but alas trolls, will be trolls....
2 guys drive by a porsche, driver says, wow, thats a nice red porsche, the other guy says, no no, it was black..
so the driver turn the car around, drives back to the porsche, points at it and says, see, its red..
the other guy answers, this is not the same car....
morale, they dont care even if proof is in front of them, they just want confrontation....
I always thought of you as being smarter than all the rest of the cheerleaders on this thread. Maybe I was wrong? Sometimes you make good points; other times you are unreasonably obtuse. Is this on purpose? |
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Price prediction based on a dream: 18.000$ in 2016. Posted for future reference  $18,000? This fits with my goal of $6,900 in 2015. |
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top holding: 280,000 XMR
Seems to me you're just a smidgen high; I'd guess just <260k. |
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I was very unlucky with HYIPs, every time I entered in, I was too late and in the final stage of the scam...
I do believe that is the entire point of them. You weren't "unlucky", it was by design. |
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But Bitcoin has already reached Gold-tier prices... can you really compare that graph to Bitcoin? What you are suggesting is Bitcoin has barely seen a rise in price yet compared to what's to come. I think this is plain insane and inceptions my mind. How could a single unit of something be so valuable? If we scalate your graph to Bitcoin what you are saying is that these stories about Bitcoin reaching 100K dollars will become true. I think this is plain nuts and delusional. How could a single BTC have the purchasing power of 100K dollars? Of course, it could always mean that Bitcoin goes to 100K and dollar decreases to the point 100K have the purchasing power of 10K... what im saying is, if what you say is right and taking into account the dollar doesn't collapse, and taking as a reference the current dollar purchasing power, one single BTC in that supossed future of yours would mean it can buy you a house. I don't really thing this is possible. How absurdly rich would be the guys that mined at the very early stages or invested when it was worth peanuts, and now have shit tons of BTC? They would become the new Rothchilds. That's just too nuts.
1) Currency unit size is arbitrary. Replace "bitcoins reaching $100K" with "bits reaching 10 cents" and see how the argument sounds. 2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_incredulity3) No the early miners won't become the next Rothchilds...at least not necessarily. They have to sell a lot to balance risk along the way. See discussion of dishoarding rates here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.04) This kind of out-of-hand dismissal is exactly why you missed the boat before. The boat is only halfway through its journey. You don't have to miss it again #1 basically answers his whole post. On #3, just for reference, at $100k USD/BTC rate, Satoshi's estimated holdings would "only" be worth $100 billion or so, which, while being an outrageous amount to the average person, is only about 5 Twitters' worth (in the big picture, not that much). Overall market cap would be in the $1.5 trillion range, which absolutely puts BTC in the "it's a big deal" category (but still not nearly replacing fiat). #4, BUY BUY BUY. Edit: to further expound on #3, a large holder of, say, 10,000 BTC would be worth $1 billion. $1 billion does not a Rothschild make. Also, people don't just typically hold everything they have while the price climbs >100x. |
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So after doing a bunch of reading about binomial distributions and fumbling around, I managed to compute several "exact" binomial probabilities, which wasn't exactly what I wanted (cumulative X > x, as it were). Then, I thought for just a second longer and found this website: http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspxWhy is it so EASY!?!? lol, in any case, if you want to know additional probabilities for masternode payments, this page is pretty useful. So, for TS2's 5-payments-in-one-day node, the probability is: 0.00176369102224805 |
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Experiencing some rather odd Masternode payment "variance". I have 3 nodes presently running, with monitoring showing they've never been down (once I got emails from the service, but I immediately checked all of them, and they were all still running). They show green on all of his servers as well as "1" in MN list. Highest present estimate of nodes (poolhash): 682 I had one go more than 8 days without payment (or votes): (681/682)^(576* = ~0.00116 Worse, presently these 3 nodes haven't been payed (or voted) in more than 3 days: (679/682)^(576*3) = ~0.000492 I'll file this under category: "Unlikely" Not that unlikely. I had a mn payment yesterday which hadn't received a payment in 10 days. Also, my other MN received 5 pmts in one day. In the end, it all equaled out to a bit over 2/3 a coin a day for them over this past month (or since starting). I'm glad I have 2 MNs because it helps keep me from panicking, LOL. If I only had 1 and it didn't get paid in 10 days, I'd be freaking out all the time. Let's not kid ourselves: using the raw probabilities from above, it's extremely unlikely. However, it obviously happened. |
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