same. you also highlighted potentially the biggest obstacle... "There is no guarantee I will ever get all of my money out of Bitcoin"

there are countless potential problems with a bitcoin moon scenario. i don't think its as easy as retiring to a yacht without a care in the world.

Pullback in the short term? Possible. Not sure I can time it though as I think it'll be quick(ish). HODL

Can we buy options yet ? hehe

(I'm sure I could lose money faster if I tried)

Thanks everyone don't expect this to change anything just "outraged" and so obviously the only course of action is to whine on bct

If you ban people for that, then we are all screwed

you need more than 0.25BTC you bum

...from bums who welch on bets!


hey polycoin, where's my money you bum!?

All my posts are approx 50/50. I looked at the chart (triangle) thought "breakout imminent" then I thought it would be (slightly) funny if anyone opening the thread was immediately confronted with a 'breakout'.

As it happened (the way I see it) we got a breakout up, but it stalled, then retested but the bears couldn't force it down, so the breakout resumed and here we are at the next crossroads.

I never know which direction its going (hence why I don't trade - see dnaelor trading game thread for further proof!) but the triangle always breaks one way or another. I think anyone can trade, until they can't.

I think the zerohedge tag line isn't about life, its a about traders being able to stay in the game

(to clarify im talking about this several trades a day/week style of 'trading' trying to profit on what is mostly random noise - over the past few years I've bought (during the crashes) and sold (during the run ups) and I'm doing ok. I don't see that as trading so much (though I suppose technically it is) more like hedging risk... *shrugs*)

Requesting the new player balance... 

The discussion will surely happen, but in the meantime everyone else will focus on the poop being flung by all the monkeys that aren't a part of that committee (I include myself!) heh

exactly this.

assuming the whole 1200 move was purely due to willy...
assuming that nothing like that exists any more...
assuming that all the selloffs were 'natural' or if they were staged, that the stagers have had their fill...

Then I think we've found bottom and are back in 'organic'. I haven't seen this kind of market action since 'pre willy' days.

What I mean by that is the up a bit, down a bit, triangles, breakouts, headfakes, momentum, swings etc that your typical speculative market makes (with a gentle upward bias of course )

Perhaps thats just confirmation bias though *shrugs*. I'ts only been a few weeks so the sample size isn't huge, but that's my counter opinion fwiw.

Assuming an oceanographic distribution, with your average codfish of about 9kg representing your typical user with with 1 bitcoin.

Your average adult whale is around 190,000 kg. Which corresponds to just over 21,000 bitcoin. Thats coincidentally so close to being 1/1000th of the total coins so it might as well be 21k

10x what it takes to get in the vlad club... sounds whaley to me.

I can't trade, it's true. Seems you were the last to know

my money's on up (obviously!)

 Any mention of Taleb automatically gets my attention.

The great thing is you have the computer already (Terminator: ...There is one more chip... *Terminator points to his head*)

Two issues with our computer is that we have is that we are clouded by emotion, and we don't have the huge dataset because people's memory is selective (in part due to that emotion - rose coloured spectacles phenomenon).

Then you have the fact that mostly people ask the wrong question: "What *will* happen?". People make the mistake of acting based on what they think *the* answer to that question is. As you said in your other post - its impossible to know the future. That path leads to ruin, imho. One might be right, but more likely one will be wrong.

The question one should ask is: "What *could" happen?" which I think is where your long tail comes in. If you assume you don't know the answer, but you consider all possible outcomes, and then position yourself on that basis. You make bank. Sure it might not be that you absolutely maximised, but better that a situation where you were just slightly wrong about the outcome but end up with nothing.

For example if we do get bitcoinmoon, my personal strategy leaves me with about 50-80% less BTC than I could have if I just HODL'd everything because I hedge against bitcoindoom. Whereas I see a lot of all in/all out posters that will just miss tops and bottoms, constantly bleed principal, fail to realise profits, get zhoutonged on margin calls etc etc all based on the mistaken premise that they can guess *right*.

Once you assume you are wrong, thats when you start making money. Thats just my style though. I'm sure all the l33t traders out there will smoke my meagre returns in the long run. (whilst the other 99% don't, hehe)

i wonder if woodchuck actually believes what he posts

a kraken deposit appeared

it was in GBP though. damn that slippage.

*sigh*

THE MOAR YOU KNOW!

They have also been $1,$30,$3,$260,$80,$1200,$160 "over these years" but I suspect you know that.

not likely, this is bitchcoin!