rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Whtwabbit]

[MERCK - CANCER - SV40 and AIDS in VACCINES - ADMISSION BY Dr Maurice Hilleman]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uGWut6IRfA

Thanks for your post Ritso, this forum is so full of fallacies, I wish more people would learn to think properly.

I found this to be a great resource: http://www.tragedyandhope.com/trivium/

"Tragedy and Hope" by Carroll Quigley reading it right now, excellent book Highly recommended

[rpietila]

WOW! such a contribution to the discussion. You are a masterful conversationalist.

His 2-week forum ban just ended. The thread ban is permanent.

[sporket]

WOW! such a contribution to the discussion. You are a masterful conversationalist.

His 2-week forum ban just ended. The thread ban is permanent.

lol wut?  You tried to get me banned, but were impotent to do so.  A cursory glance at my post history will confirm that.

[billyjoeallen]

WOW! such a contribution to the discussion. You are a masterful conversationalist.

His 2-week forum ban just ended. The thread ban is permanent.

lol wut?  You tried to get me banned, but ...[blah blah blah]

ignored.

[sporket]

^Continue ignoring reality, it's really working for you.

[wpalczynski]

What reality are you referring to?

^Continue ignoring reality, it's really working for you.

[sporket]

^Most of it.  But this bit in particular:

...
His 2-week forum ban just ended. The thread ban is permanent.

lol wut?  You tried to get me banned, but were impotent to do so.  A cursory glance at my post history will confirm that.

[wpalczynski]

Someone speculate something already!

[rpietila]

This is a Bitcoin speculation thread, and everyone is busy trying to make up his mind with Monero 

[wpalczynski]

Yes.  The Monero thread has certainly been quite active recently.

This is a Bitcoin speculation thread, and everyone is busy trying to make up his mind with Monero  

[iamback]

I stick with my prediction made when Bitcoin was in the $600s, that it will need to settle at $150 or below, before we've reached the bottom. I think Bitcoin is now well correlated with gold (in terms of the stampede to Private Assets coming after the Sovereign Debt Big Bang on 2015.75), which Armstrong expects won't bottom until settles at $1000 or below ($680 is the minimum possibility) sometime just before or after 2015.75.

I had also noted long ago how BTC's chart resembled silver, and so I am quite confident that the recent intraday touch of $151 (on BitStamp, $166 on Bitfinex) with a closing well above that, was not a capitulation (we had the same pattern in silver having flirtations with $26 until it finally broke through down to $17). All the permabulls such as rpietila will have to capitulate and sell some at these lows before we will have bottomed. That panic sell off was not capitulation by all yet. We need more pain first to wring their hands of optimism and hope and turn them to dismay and hopelessness. Then we will have bottomed.

There is a bounce now on news, and I would sell the news (just as everyone should have sold the recent bounce in gold):

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-investment-trust-gets-finras-ok-to-become-public-bitcoin-fund-1425242094

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-making-higher-highs/

If it bounces even higher first before falling again, that won't be refutation of my prediction.


Folks imo, crypto-currency won't be ready for another prime-time until after Oct. 2015.

I don't catch a falling knife. I especially run away from investments where there are preachers who are trying to manage the float with their words and brethren. When expert speculators become managers, I run away because that is not their talent.

Btw, rpietila checked with me as he was deciding to go "all in" (i.e. buy much more than he had bought at lower prices) on BTC at $10 in early 2013 (or let us say he was advising me to buy and also getting my confirmation in addition to the confirmation he had already received from numerous of his contacts, myself only being a minor relatively insignificant one), and I responded that he was probably correct. As a speculator, rpietila is very astute. I appreciate any advice he gives me as an unaligned speculator. When he has become married to an investment, I no longer weight as highly his opinion on that investment, because I don't think he can be entirely objective in that case where he has vested interests.

I post there here not to spite my very generous friend (btw he has paid in full + extra for all past arrangements), rather because I am advising him as I did when I advised Jason Hommel to not double-down on the failing marriage by making a child and buying a $million home. Alas, friend's advice is often ignored.

I suppose I won't post again here for months, which was the case last time I posted in this thread.

Here are two posts on Armstrong that are relevant to his prediction record and methodology:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10638476#msg10638476

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10617644#msg10617644

[billyjoeallen]

I stick with my prediction made when Bitcoin was in the $600s, that it will need to settle at $150 or below, before we've reached the bottom. I think Bitcoin is now well correlated with gold (in terms of the stampede to Private Assets coming after the Sovereign Debt Big Bang on 2015.75), which Armstrong expects won't bottom until settles at $1000 or below ($680 is the minimum possibility) sometime just before or after 2015.75.

I had also noted long ago how BTC's chart resembled silver, and so I am quite confident that the recent intraday touch of $151 (on BitStamp, $166 on Bitfinex) with a closing well above that, was not a capitulation. All the permabulls such as rpietila will have to capitulate and sell some at these lows before we will have bottomed. That panic sell off was not capitulation by all yet. We need more pain first to wring their hands of optimism and hope and turn them to dismay and hopelessness. Then we will have bottomed.

There is a bounce now on news, and I would sell the news (just as everyone should have sold the recent bounce in gold):

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-investment-trust-gets-finras-ok-to-become-public-bitcoin-fund-1425242094

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-making-higher-highs/

If it bounces even higher first before falling again, that won't be refutation of my prediction.


Folks imo, crypto-currency won't be ready for another prime-time until after Oct. 2015.

I don't catch a falling knife. I especially run away from investments where there are preachers who are trying to manage the float with their words and brethren. When expert speculators become managers, I run away because that is not their talent.

Btw, rpietila checked with me as he was deciding to go "all in" (i.e. buy much more than he had bought at lower prices) on BTC at $10 (or let us say he was advising me to buy and also getting my confirmation), and I responded that he was probably correct. As a speculator, rpietila is very astute. I appreciate any advice he gives me as an unaligned speculator. When he has become married to an investment, I no longer value his opinion on that investment, because I don't think he objective.

I post there here not to spite my very generous friend (btw he has paid in full + extra for all past arrangements), rather because I am advising him as I did when I advised Jason Hommel to not double-down on the failing marriage by making a child and buying a $million home. Alas, friend's advice is often ignored.

I suppose I won't post again here for months, which was the case last time I posted in this thread.

We will likely get a short squeeze above $360 soon. It is already underway. After that, there will be a snap-back and a bounce to fool the last of the permabulls before an ugly bear assault on the ~$160 bottom. If that support doesn't hold, then I think it is all over for bitcoin. The manipulators will have killed their golden goose. 

[iamback]

If that support doesn't hold, then I think it is all over for bitcoin.

I think that will be the new beginning. And great things will happen in 2016 for Bitcoin and altcoins.

[marcus_of_augustus]

If that support doesn't hold, then I think it is all over for bitcoin.

I think that will be the new beginning. And great things will happen in 2016 for Bitcoin and altcoins.

great things eh guru?

what about 2017?

[iamback]

Apologies for the miscommunication. I mean I think we will begin an upward trend in cryptocurrency in 2016 and that should go on for some years as it will also for all "off the grid" assets such as gold.

The crypto-currency ecosystem is maturing during this correction. This correction is an exhale from an overly idealistic europhia where the adoption and network effects were not pacing with the speculative fever. This is also the strengthening of the dollar as the rest of world collapses. Which is driving investments back towards sovereign bonds of Germany and the USA, as we are on the precipice and peak before Sovereign Debt Big Bang collapse in 2016. Europe's 1.5 trillion Euro QE is the last gasp of Europe. Once Germany goes in crisis, it will all unravel over in Euroland.

Don't forget Exter's Inverted Pyramid (with gold at the tip just above sovereign bonds). We are on the precipice of the final move into Sovereign bonds, before the collapse into the big move in gold (and now crypto currency as superior to gold in some respects).

Edit: as I wrote before, the low for gold and BTC could come slightly before the 2015.75, which is apparently also the prediction of Jim Rogers and Nadeem Walayat.

[wpalczynski]

I am very curious as to why you keep switching accounts here on BCT.  Obviously its not for nefarious reasons, your actions (posts) and links to previous posts show that.  Why?

Apologies for the miscommunication. I mean I think we will begin an upward trend in cryptocurrency in 2016 and that should go on for some years as it will also for all "off the grid" assets such as gold.

The crypto-currency ecosystem is maturing during this correction. This correction is an exhale from an overly idealistic europhia where the adoption and network effects were not pacing with the speculative fever. This is also the strengthening of the dollar as the rest of world collapses. Which is driving investments back towards sovereign bonds of Germany and the USA, as we are on the precipice and peak before Sovereign Debt Big Bang collapse in 2016. Europe's 1.5 trillion Euro QE is the last gasp of Europe. Once Germany goes in crisis, it will all unravel over in Euroland.

Don't forget Exter's Inverted Pyramid (with gold at the tip just above sovereign bonds). We are on the precipice of the final move into Sovereign bonds, before the collapse into the big move in gold (and now crypto currency as superior to gold in some respects).

Edit: as I wrote before, the low for gold and BTC could come slightly before the 2015.75, which is apparently also the prediction of Jim Rogers and Nadeem Walayat.

[SmoothCurves]

Apologies for the miscommunication. I mean I think we will begin an upward trend in cryptocurrency in 2016 and that should go on for some years as it will also for all "off the grid" assets such as gold.

The crypto-currency ecosystem is maturing during this correction. This correction is an exhale from an overly idealistic europhia where the adoption and network effects were not pacing with the speculative fever. This is also the strengthening of the dollar as the rest of world collapses. Which is driving investments back towards sovereign bonds of Germany and the USA, as we are on the precipice and peak before Sovereign Debt Big Bang collapse in 2016. Europe's 1.5 trillion Euro QE is the last gasp of Europe. Once Germany goes in crisis, it will all unravel over in Euroland.

Don't forget Exter's Inverted Pyramid (with gold at the tip just above sovereign bonds). We are on the precipice of the final move into Sovereign bonds, before the collapse into the big move in gold (and now crypto currency as superior to gold in some respects).

Edit: as I wrote before, the low for gold and BTC could come slightly before the 2015.75, which is apparently also the prediction of Jim Rogers and Nadeem Walayat.

Why should anyone take your predictions seriously?

[chopstick]

I always laugh everyone someone says BTC is gonna die...

R u guys kidding me.

The price goes up 10-20% on a little bit of news.

Imagine once something serious actually happens, we'll be back over a K in no time.

Still waiting for this damned Winklevii ETF.

[coinits]

I always laugh everyone someone says BTC is gonna die...

R u guys kidding me.

The price goes up 10-20% on a little bit of news.

Imagine once something serious actually happens, we'll be back over a K in no time.

Still waiting for this damned Winklevii ETF.

ETFs are evil and a tool of the Corpo-fascists to destroy the true value of commodities. Case in point. Look at what they have done to precious metals. They trade paper representations of the same ounce of gold over and over again causing hundreds, if not thousands of people to own the same ounce. They use Kabuki Theater and rehypothecate precious metals to perpetrate the scam. Eventually it will fail and people who thought that they could get actual metal for their paper will be paid in fiat that will be worthless.  No one reads the fine print in the SLV nor GLD ETFs. They tell you as much. You get fiat at their discretion. You do not own a damn thing except shit paper.

When this comes to BTC you will be fed bullshit encouraging you to invest in these ETFs. Short-term, yes there will be an euphoric windfall compared to fiat, but if you dance with the devil you will end up losing your BTC and selling your soul.

Look at your BTC as physical PMs. It is not yours unless you have it in your possession.

[shields]

ETFs are evil and a tool of the Corpo-fascists to destroy the true value of commodities. Case in point. Look at what they have done to precious metals.

That's a knock against precious metals themselves - they are not good enough to stand up against ETFs because no one has any use for them. The hassle of delivery and storage combined with the lack of any practical use of the metal itself to its owner (can't spend it as money directly anywhere, aren't going to make a spoon out of it). If this wasn't true then more people would be holding precous metals themselves instead of buying ETF shares in them.