(and thus would be positive)

The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many people had been infected with Covid-19 in the past.

Other tests, like those performed with nasal swabs or saliva, test for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, as antibodies do.

Possible. Could also mean that 20% of those 80,000 are in the early stages and on the way to the ER in a week or so. That could pop up the death rate.

Keeping in mind that they are young healthy people,

With a 14% infection rate and 40% sick enough to notice, that's 5.6%. Of those say a fifth will enter critical condition, 1.1%. Of those a fifth will die, so about 0.2% death rate in the entire sample group.

Again, these are young healthy people. It will be worse in the general population. But even then, this is not bad enough to shut down the entire economy. Life has to go back to normal, and soon, before it does permanent cultural and psychological damage.

The remaining problem is old people. They either have to isolate or just accept that a good chunk of them will die earlier than they otherwise would. I guess it really is a Boomer virus.

(CNN)Far more people may have been infected with Covid-19 than have been confirmed by health officials in Santa Clara County, California, according to a study released Friday in preprint.

The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many people had been infected with Covid-19 in the past. Other tests, like those performed with nasal swabs or saliva, test for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, as antibodies do.

The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. This represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people, which is 50 to 85 times what county officials recorded by that date: 956 confirmed cases.

CVN-71, now with over 95% of crew tested

fully 60% of positives are asymptomatic

let that sink in

There's a 0.1% chance of that. It's 99.9% likely the covid death numbers have been systematically under-reported unintentionally or negligently.

The fear is just a handy byproduct and much exaggerated by people's words, but not by these stats.

US virus numbers now include probable cases without tests

The U.S. tally of coronavirus cases and deaths might jump, because federal health officials will now count illnesses that are not confirmed by lab testing

New York City posts sharp spike in coronavirus deaths after untested victims added

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York City, the hardest hit U.S. city in the coronavirus pandemic, revised its official COVID-19 death toll sharply higher to more than 10,000 on Tuesday, to include victims presumed to have perished from the lung disease but never tested.

Fox is running with the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab accident angle tonight.

(CNN)US intelligence and national security officials say the United States government is looking into the possibility that the novel coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory rather than a market, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who caution it is premature to draw any conclusions.

Au 1715

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

So, been thinking pretty hard...


When exactly did we go from dystopian fiction being cautionary to being a fait accompli?

I like the version on my phone

Does NY usually have to call in multiple refrigerated tractor-trailers to deal with all the snake-bite deaths 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52249963

80,000 Americans died of the the flu last season, according to preliminary data from the CDC.

Seasonal influenza is a killer, even in milder years. Lately, mild flu seasons tend to kill about 12,000 Americans, and more severe flu seasons kill up to 56,000.

But 80,000 deaths is an unusually large toll. Here’s what led to the massive spike.

I don't frequently go to a Ford forum telling people why my VW is better, and arguing about it, even if I also owned a Ford. Because I would be considered a troll (by definition) on that forum. And the Ford mod would tell me to either shut up about VWs or be banned.

Sounds like you are saying he's a troll.

Check out this graph from JP Morgan:


This is based partially on the second wave emerging in China. Are we going to keep doing these lockdowns every couple of months until a vaccine arrives?