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[Phil_S]

Keeping in mind that they are young healthy people,

With a 14% infection rate and 40% sick enough to notice, that's 5.6%. Of those say a fifth will enter critical condition, 1.1%. Of those a fifth will die, so about 0.2% death rate in the entire sample group.

Again, these are young healthy people. It will be worse in the general population. But even then, this is not bad enough to shut down the entire economy. Life has to go back to normal, and soon, before it does permanent cultural and psychological damage.

The remaining problem is old people. They either have to isolate or just accept that a good chunk of them will die earlier than they otherwise would. I guess it really is a Boomer virus.

Super-interesting numbers on the general population (Santa Clara Country):

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

(CNN)Far more people may have been infected with Covid-19 than have been confirmed by health officials in Santa Clara County, California, according to a study released Friday in preprint.

The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many people had been infected with Covid-19 in the past. Other tests, like those performed with nasal swabs or saliva, test for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, as antibodies do.

The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. This represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people, which is 50 to 85 times what county officials recorded by that date: 956 confirmed cases.

So every time we see "1000 confirmed cases" in some area, we should assume 50,000 - 80,000 infected there.

Maybe it's not that dangerous, and most people get over it so quickly that usual tests show nothing.

[lightfoot]

Possible. Could also mean that 20% of those 80,000 are in the early stages and on the way to the ER in a week or so. That could pop up the death rate.

What's interesting me right now is the recent pops in the rate. I thought it might start to level off or go down but with 3856 coffins yesterday vs. 1500 a few days ago in the "saddle" I think it's not going down.

Side thought: Prep work ahead of a disaster can buy time. Right now I believe it's a very bad idea to go out in public for supplies. Having proper respirators gives you a few weeks of extra time to go out and keep your supplies peaked in case we hit Day 6 and grocery stores are closed hard. That will probably last a month so you need a month of food to ride it out. Not a good time to run out of food.

Seeing the first whispers of Day 6 now with pork and other meat processing plants shutting down. If this happens and they can't do their work with proper quarantine distances then things could get complicated in a month or so. We shall see....

[lightfoot]

Meantime Bitcoin is at 7254 and the litecoin/bitcoin spread is at a solid .006. Which means bitcon and alts are rising in sync.

good

[JimboToronto]

I am black belt in risotto

Like almost any good food, risotto has to start with good stock. The chickens here in Mexico may not be as plump and tender as the ones in Canada, but they make excellent stock.

Hendrick's (coupled with tonic water , ice and lime  has been my best friend during this lockdown.

As for Hendrick's, I'm getting a little worried about my supply. I just finished my second last bottle and I'm trying to hold off opening my last one as long as possible. I have maybe enough Sapphire for 2 drinks and less than a quarter bottle of Tanqueray. My half bottle of Hendrick's Orbium is for extreme emergencies only. It should be in a glass case with a little hammer.

I'm out of rum, wine (except vermouth) and cognac and I'm down to my last half bottles of tequila and Crown Royal.  

They blindsided me here with their ban on alcohol. In most civilized countries, alcohol supply is considered essential like food or pharmaceuticals. Here they were worried about maintaining "social order". OMG, it's gangs of rampaging social distancers!

Managed to acquire a little bootleg cerveza from a nearby town and immediately put in an order for as much more and as much tequila as I could get but then they closed down the highway almost immediately so I'm SOL.

Gotta ration, but that's hard when you've been living a life of unbridled decadence for so many years.

Sigh.

[Toxic2040]

the morning Wall report

Fierce persistent attacks overnight followed by a troop surge this morning have driven the Bears from around the $7k stronghold they have been occupying upwards towards the $7.3k resistance zone. Bull reinforcements continue to seek to establish a beachhead in the $7.3k-$7.5k range to extend their gainz. #dyor  

3h


#btd's
1h

#stronghands

[infofront]

I am black belt in risotto

Like almost any good food, risotto has to start with good stock. The chickens here in Mexico may not be as plump and tender as the ones in Canada, but they make excellent stock.

Hendrick's (coupled with tonic water , ice and lime  has been my best friend during this lockdown.

As for Hendrick's, I'm getting a little worried about my supply. I just finished my second last bottle and I'm trying to hold off opening my last one as long as possible. I have maybe enough Sapphire for 2 drinks and less than a quarter bottle of Tanqueray. My half bottle of Hendrick's Orbium is for extreme emergencies only. It should be in a glass case with a little hammer.

I'm out of rum, wine (except vermouth) and cognac and I'm down to my last half bottles of tequila and Crown Royal.  

They blindsided me here with their ban on alcohol. In most civilized countries, alcohol supply is considered essential like food or pharmaceuticals. Here they were worried about maintaining "social order". OMG, it's gangs of rampaging social distancers!

Managed to acquire a little bootleg cerveza from a nearby town and immediately put in an order for as much more and as much tequila as I could get but then they closed down the highway almost immediately so I'm SOL.

Gotta ration, but that's hard when you've been living a life of unbridled decadence for so many years.

Sigh.

I ordered a bunch of booze with my last grocery delivery. They've been talking about allowing uber/doordash/etc drivers to deliver mixed drinks from bars lol
Anyway, it sounds like you've got enough to survive on.

[lightfoot]

I ordered a bunch of booze with my last grocery delivery. They've been talking about allowing uber/doordash/etc drivers to deliver mixed drinks from bars lol
Anyway, it sounds like you've got enough to survive on.

Just keep in mind that if you find an "Is AA right for you" pamphlet in your empty recycling bin then you might want to stop and think for a bit...

[Phil_S]

Possible. Could also mean that 20% of those 80,000 are in the early stages and on the way to the ER in a week or so. That could pop up the death rate.

I don't think so.

The study said "by April 1".

Today is April 18 and the county have 1870 positives and 73 deaths.

[Globb0]

https://news.sky.com/story/man-64-accidentally-ejects-himself-from-fighter-jet-at-2500ft-during-surprise-flight-11973070?

“The man's colleagues had arranged the flight despite the fact he had never expressed any desire to travel in a fighter jet”

[lightfoot]

Possible. Could also mean that 20% of those 80,000 are in the early stages and on the way to the ER in a week or so. That could pop up the death rate.

I don't think so.

The study said "by April 1".

Today is April 18 and the county have 1870 positives and 73 deaths.

Hm. So those 1870 positives do not include any of these 80,000 people. Interesting.

[Phil_S]

Why would you assume that?

[lightfoot]

Why would you assume that?

If you have only 1800 confirmed positives but 80,000 people who we think had the virus (and thus would be positive) it stands to reason that the 80k are not reflected in the ~1800 count.

Unless 78,200 of them died between April 1 and today. Which would have made the death count number go up. Unless they all died of non COVID19 causes like being run over by aliens.

[Phil_S]

(and thus would be positive)

Could be negative, if they fully recovered. Quote from the article:

The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many people had been infected with Covid-19 in the past.

Other tests, like those performed with nasal swabs or saliva, test for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, as antibodies do.

[nutildah]

It is.
Eating rice, is not that bad in Italy.
I am black belt in risotto.

I'm not Italian but this looks like it could be correct:



This was a good map too, of each country's most grotesque delicacy:



Scotland sounds like its got it going on. I'm down to try deep fried pizza. That sounds amazing.

Don't know what's wrong with Switzerland's item either.

[fillippone]

It is.
Eating rice, is not that bad in Italy.
I am black belt in risotto.

I'm not Italian but this looks like it could be correct:



This was a good map too, of each country's most grotesque delicacy:



Scotland sounds like its got it going on. I'm down to try deep fried pizza. That sounds amazing.

Don't know what's wrong with Switzerland's item either.

Pretty Accurate.
Switzerland cuisine is Horror.
Unless you think putting an overpriced piece of meat on the grill is cuisine.
Also on the first image, I think the judgement  on Spanish cuisine  is a little bit too harsh.

I could actually live happily with Spanish cuisine (Polbo á la gallega, gambas al ajio, pata negra) are delicacies I could happily substitute a lot of italian plates for.

Regarding culinary Horroy I actually like a few of them
Squid Ink
Sea Urchins

[Last of the V8s]

Faggots.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

[Toxic2040]

lol LFC

+1 WOsMerit

[jojo69]

Faggots.

yes?

[Last of the V8s]