"I spent an hour and a half at the entrance to the emergency room of a major New York City hospital this afternoon, watching, observing. No panic. No crisis, no emergency that I could see whatsoever. Zilch. Nothing. I saw perhaps a hundred people associated with the hospital who couldn't have been more unrushed, lackadaisical, and/or unconcerned. Not one person would speak to me on camera (video). I saw all of four people enter the hospital on gurneys....3 of whom were very old, none of whom seemed to be in any discomfort at all. ......... And for this we shut down essentially all economic activity in NYC-- an unprecedented measure in all of human history. Somebody help me out, because I think I'm going to go insane now......"
-Pamela Rice, NYC citizen, 15 hours ago
What is the fallacy for equating what is currently happening with what would have happened?
There are countries without lockdown orders.
So it's not like it's impossible to imagine "what would have happened"...