 Interesting downtrend that could be a part of new multi-leg strike towards $80. |
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So I don't usually draw lines on a chart... but I am bored and it seemed like fun.  Alright, chart mystics, tell me the significance of this channel!  The top trend line touches more times and thus has more significance when understanding the trend. |
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I love sitting on the sidelines with my bitcoins just watching the madness. The debating, the speculation, the sob stories and the cheers. So glad I'm not fighting the market right now.
That, dollar cost averaging, and automated market making are the only trading methods I recommend in this market. Would you care to share your trading rules for automated market making? |
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Evidence disputing the direct comparison of this bubble to the one in 2011.@SlipperySlope:You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring: The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction. The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards". I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago.   To which I responded ... Perhaps the comparisons with bubble 1 will become stronger as this collapse continues. There are plenty of falsifiable predictions I could make, and the most interesting is whether $145 or $160 will be surpassed during the remainder of the collapse. Based on bubble 1, I think not.
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Given this stop at $106, could be a triangle developing centered on $108 ?
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@SlipperySlope:You keep invoking the 2011 bubble, and how you expect a similar protracted slide downwards in this one as well. I'm not going to take the cheap shot and say "past performance is no guarantee of future results", in fact, I'm not even ruling out that you are right and that we have a correction of about 3 months ahead of us, bringing us all the way down to the 20-50 USD range, but there is one thing you seem to keep ignoring: The smaller corrections (or capitulations) in 2011 followed a decidedly different pattern than those of the current bubble. What I drew in as "corrections" in 2011 and 2103 (see charts below) is to a degree debatable, but one trend seems to hold: the corrections of 2011 followed a very obvious, steady downward trend, each time reaching a lower high, and, more or less, going to lower lows with each correction. The 2013 corrections so far however look quite different. True, we didn't reach a new ATH, but at the same time, the low points of the last two corrections are both higher than the lows of the first two corrections. If anything, I would say the corrections so far seem to indicate a (very cautious) consolidation pattern, trying to converge at a price somewhere between 100 and 130, while the 2011 pattern could perhaps be described as "reluctantly going downwards". I appreciate your insights a lot, and I follow your posts closely, but I'm not buying your by-the-book comparison to the 2011 price decline, if the first month after this crash already looks so much different than the month after the crash two years ago. Perhaps the comparisons with bubble 1 will become stronger as this collapse continues. There are plenty of falsifiable predictions I could make, and the most interesting is whether $145 or $160 will be surpassed during the remainder of the collapse. Based on bubble 1, I think not. |
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But the truth is that after the April, 10th crash we had days with HUGE volume. Damn, we had two days where we had ATH volume. I really believe the bigger sell off has already happened - and that was April, 16th, where we had +BTC550k sold. I could bet we won't have a single day with that volume in the next month, unless something really disruptive happens (I mean a really big technical problem, etc.) To the degree that this bubble collapse behaves like the June 2011 collapse, it is normal for the big sell off to happen first. That's why I dubbed the August , 2011 capitulation The Great Capitulation of 2011. I believe the drop from $145 to $80 is the corresponding Great Capitulation of 2013. If my ideas are correct, then its likely we have seen the worst one this year. Here is what happened with regard to volume back during the collapse of the bubble in 2011 ...  |
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Manipulator... Everyone in this thread is a manipulator.
Even in multi-player zero-sum games there may be significant advantages to players, i.e. win-win situations, resulting from the sharing of noisy or misleading information. I am here because I believe that what I learn helps me to multiply my bitcoins. I do not believe that what I say meaningfully affects the bitcoin exchange market, and the criticism my ideas receive is easier to accept than lessons taught solely by the market. |
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Significant volume on this hourly red candle amplifies the importance of this movement. Will volume increase next hour?
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 Risto = rpietila |
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I use the Chrome web browser. Its tools permit the monitoring of the TCP traffic between client and server - and so I watch Clark Moody's app to confirm the socket.io API that Mt. Gox uses. I likewise found Mt.Gox performance to be annoying.
It's not so much the API as the socket.io thing. I'm sure I can work it out though. I want to write an app for Android so I can see the charts realtime like a picture viewer without having to do a browser deal. Though probably someone has already done that. Often seems to be the way these days. Coincidentally, the same websocket library I got working a year ago for Android, was the one that I grafted socket.io capability onto in my recent Java desktop app. Your idea should work fine. Getting the realtime depth list synched up with trades is not easy due to the fact that Mt. Gox appears to have separate server processes providing this information, without Consistency as defined by database folks. |
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A few months ago I wrote a Java websocket/socket.io client for Mt. Gox that processes the depth chart to explore my notions about depth and tick data. The ChartBuddy 3-D depth chart periodically posted here shows the time dimension like I wanted - so no point in going further. But I did learn enough about the Mt. Gox API to very deeply appreciate the cleverness employed by Clark Moody who ties together Mt. Gox trades and depth changes.
I wanted to do the socket.io thing (and still do for another project) but found it poorly documented and jumped on the http in the end. I still need to figure out why I appear to be regularly missing the first few minutes each hour from Gox. It's not always but it's often enough to be annoying. I use the Chrome web browser. Its tools permit the monitoring of the TCP traffic between client and server - and so I watch Clark Moody's app to confirm the socket.io API that Mt. Gox uses. I likewise found Mt.Gox performance to be annoying. |
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Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business. That just about sums up trend-following TA. |
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BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?
I say 180
I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom. |
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Stamp is date and time in unix time with with microsecond precision of the last change.
Oh, I figured the unix time thing. I just wasn't sure what it signifies. A few months ago I wrote a Java websocket/socket.io client for Mt. Gox that processes the depth chart to explore my notions about depth and tick data. The ChartBuddy 3-D depth chart periodically posted here shows the time dimension like I wanted - so no point in going further. But I did learn enough about the Mt. Gox API to very deeply appreciate the cleverness employed by Clark Moody who ties together Mt. Gox trades and depth changes. The Mt. Gox HTTP API allows the client to poll the server in order to obtain partial or the full depth list of bids and asks. Then its websocket/socket.io API allows the client to subscribe to trades, depth changes, and lag. Subsequently the client receives notification of depth changes, which is the change and new amount of the limit bid or ask orders at a certain price at a certain time, i.e. the time the limit order was issued/cancelled. What is crazy is that Mt. Gox drops the connection, or otherwise loses synchronization between the trades and the depth chart. Clark Moody's realtime charting app dynamically fixes all this up. Its not precise - but it is very satisfactory, by polling the server to replace the client depth info when it gets out of sync. I can answer detailed protocol questions about the Mt. Gox API as regard to charting data, but not much at all regarding the trading functions. |
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I really expect a bigger correction during this week, selling pressure is quite high, and obviously new money stopped pouring in (or it just slowed down when compared to the times we were in parabolic growth).
When traders say that bitcoin has passed from weak hands to strong ones, they are describing a mechanism that prolongs a bubble collapse. Certain traders holding losing positions (the weak hands) stop-loss sell to new buyers who can withstand a bit of a drop (the strong hands), until the latter in turn sell as they become the weak hands - right? I believe that the bubble collapse will take the approximately the same duration as the bubble expansion phase - approximately three months. Plenty of time for more capitulations before the final bottom of this bubble - I think. |
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So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?
Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled As everyone here probably knows, I am a long term bull attempting to multiply my bitcoins by trading this bubble, which compels me to adopt bearish tactics as the opportunity presents.  |
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 It appears to me that the capitulation pattern from $145 to $80 has ended. Three days to fall to $80, and three days to recover back to $124. Question whether the price will surpass $145 or $160 this month - I believe not, based upon the notion that we are in a collapsing bubble. |
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 Recent price action is within the lower part of the wall-indicated channel. |
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Especially now, as I officially exhort people to sell 20% of their position, to repatriate double the amount of fiat they invested, and ride the freebies "for the longest time" until you develop a desire to buy a private island or a penthouse. Evidently, bitcoin is easy to sell. The wonder of it all - is that what Risto says above is absolutely true, depending solely upon the degree to which bitcoin replaces the legacy fiat/PM financial structure. The three year exponential growth of bitcoin suggests that it will take a substantial portion of online payment transactions. And Risto could share rosy statistics about the growth of bitcoin as as store of value - achieving what I imagine to be a growing share of the market formerly served only by precious metals. |
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