ARGH BUY *punches self in face* @ 298.75

I would love to pretend that I never posted that sell order. I did though, it was the first time I'd made any dollar profit, so I took it.

Then came the rocket. Now I am trapped good and proper. Capitulation buy incoming in 3..2..

anyone would think I'm out to prove HODL was better (if only I was that good!)

Bubble 2 wasn't a full cycle imho, it was just a correction on the way from 13->1163, the same as there was a correction during the runup from 1->32 (it roughly went 1->9->5->32)

see here for more!

Perhaps he could or perhaps you could figure stuff out for yourself. Everything is open to interpretation.

I think you are in the wrong place. This is a place where we discuss things that *might* happen, whereas you clearly know exactly what *will* happen. So obviously you know to sell all your BTC right now if you have any, put your money in the bank, and never come back.

Whats worse is they probably hold coins just like everyone else, but are so insecure in themselves that they don't want to admit it in case anyone points out they were wrong. There whole sense of self identity is pinned on what random strangers on the internet think about their screen name. They come on here to slate everyone else just so that if BTC does go to shit they can still jerk off about how smrt they were on the internet. Then if the price does go up, they'll go back to posting on their original account, like they knew all along.

Beyond embarrassing.

funniest post ever.

I think donators are suck ups and should be fined

The road to hell is paved with good intentions. By that token, I'm sure the fiat mess isnt necessarily by design.

Im thinking about the pattern of systems arisng through consensus. (A kind of anthropological corollary to software design patterns)

This is a pattern that repeats through human existence. Acceptance of a concept and propagation of its practical implication, leading to who knows where.

This seems natural, as it should for it has been the way of things for millennia. The practical implication of any given system is not at issue, this t would seem to me is the manner in which human evolution at a cultural level has and continues to evolve.

I am observing though, how that may change. The Internet facilitated many things, previously unimaginable. Of particular significance is the massive increase in coomunication potential. I think we are currently living through one of the most significant shifts in cultural evolution *ever*. Consider the normal 'evolutionary' timescale for a species, and then consider the disproportianate speed at which technology has evolved to low us to suddenly be a able to communicate with anyone in the world in any place at any time (thereabouts).

The impact of this will be, I beleive, as obvious and astonishing as the industrial revolution is to today's historians. We are in it now so we can't see it. BTC is just one facet of the integration of man. We're becoming a worldwide nation. Borders must drop. Equality must happen. Monetary equilibrium is one stepping stone. I'm for it, we are all the same. One love.

Investing in Paypal is investing in the potential profit to be made in USD remittance

Investing in Coinbase is investing in the potential profit to be made in BTC remittance

I can see the case for both. I can see the risks in both. Probably I'm not your target audience though.

Following this post here I thought about how the next market cycle might unfold.

To recap, I think a full cycle of the form popularised by *that* chart, is a fair assessment of human emotion, market behaviour during speculative bubble. I think the bitcoin price is subject to speculative bubbles. I don't think that the bitcoin price is *purely* a speculative bubble though. I think underlying value based on adoption is also a factor, and I think the market price is a combination of these two factors.

That means each speculative bubble will be bigger than the last, and based off of the underlying value as some function of 'adoption'.

The charts below broadly summarise what I think might unfold:



This is basically the same idea I posted before in the 560k prediction post but from a different perspective, not formulaic but conceptual. Still with the obligatory outlandish price forecast though

Once again attempting to trade on these numbers would be stupid. Instead these numbers are a guide to what one might expect in a 'success' scenario. A scenario that I can't say will happen, so you shouldn't think so either.

*IF* we were to go through another speculative bubble, perhaps driven by wall street this time, then it would probably be much of a much larger magnitude involving much more capital and take much longer. A year long consolidation followed by another year of gradually increasing price trending higher ending in a correction, followed by an exponential bubble phase over several months. Potentially taking us to a price on 4,5 or even six figures.

That's the 'worldwide adoption' model, and the speculative bubble that happens on the way. If it happens. Of course those posting below, know for a fact it won't 

If you really think the price is going to go back up, then don't you necessarily have to assume that (nearly) all the miners have been selling. I do.

Isn't the whole point, that the last 12 month decline was due to loss of confidence, fear in the market and was exacerbated by selling pressure from miners, who believe it is more beneficial to cash out BTC now than hold for a lower price.

For an epic rally to begin (and I'm not saying it will) wouldn't it require, firstly, capitulation. This final selloff from those in the grips of despair would result in sales drying up. Price stabilises, which causes a gradual increase in confidence. Any small increase in buying starts to naturally eat up supply, the gradually increasing price, means more dollars are needed to buy the same BTC so this delicate equilibrium will move along, but as it tends upwards it reveals an underlying increase in money moving into the market.

As the price rises, miners must then start to consider holding for better prices. This results in a diminishing supply being chased by a gradually increasing amount of dollars...

This sounds familiar, but of course in no way should you expect it. Its just one possible scenario.

I think that what I describe above is the start of a full cycle, which culminates in exponential growth with blowoff top and then prolonged bear market.

We've just been through a full cycle, and I think that although there have been a few other ATH only one of them was the culmination of a full cycle.

I don't think the rise to 266 and crash to 60 was a cycle in its own right, but just a temporary correction during the entire cycle we've been through

I see this as the first cycle:

$0.60 -> $32

there was a mini run up to ~15 and a correction to ~8 early in the cycle

$5 -> $1200  

the run up to 266 and correction to 60 is similar to the smaller move in the previous cycle

both of these cycles had a discernible 'bear market' following the blow off, both had an aborted launch followed by major exponential growth culminating in a price collapse.

I can imagine that this kind of price action is almost inevitable result of human behaviour/emotion, and that its not unreasonable to think that we'll see the same kind of cycle unfold again - the now infamous 560k prediction post touches on this idea of repeated boom/bust cycles during the course of adoption.

I think its a mistake to try and predict the actual prices for the purposes of trying to trade them, but its a fun exercise to think about the size of the moves one could expect should we see another similar market cycle, so with that in mind lets go ahead and extrapolate:

$0.6 -> 32 : 53x
$5 -> 1200 : 240x

If we take the current price of around $200 as being a stable platform for luanch (yes I am choosing these words on purpose )

We take our worst case scenario is being x53 multiplier, a middle ground of 146x and a best case a repeat of the 240x move we see these potential new ATH's:

53x => $10,600
146x =>$29,200
240x => $48,000

Looks like my 5k bet is pretty conservative by those figures!

Now I'm not one to shy away from considering outlandish numbers, so lets imagine for a moment that as the length of the cycle increases then so the magnitude of the move also increases. if we do the most basic linear extrapolation, the first move was x53 the second was x240 so the third must be x1087

Now that gives us $217k. A figure I'm sure that the trollers will all be delighted with as they undoubtedly all actually hold BTC. I ain't even mad. How could I be. At that price I might finally be able to afford that porsche I've been after.

Fire away trolltards, should be plenty of easy pickings in this post

ok sorry replying to my own post:

I think i found the answer to the first question...



Looks like since around 8th December USD swaps have decreased, and BTC swaps have increased. Interesting.

I'd really like to know exactly what the original chart represents. I know what everyone *thinks* it means but I think there is some assuming going on.

What I mean is, this link http://bfxdata.com/sentiment/longshort.php shows a different picture.

I used bitfinex a long time ago, and from what I recall swaps are just you saying that whatever you have on account there, you are prepared to loan out to someone else. So from this it looks like the inference here is that because BTC swaps are at a high that there is more short interest than usual.

I have 2 things that need to clear about about that:

1. What the chart isn't showing is what the USD swaps are currently. I know when I first looked at OP's chart I assumed that was the blue line, but its not - the blue line is the rate (of interest) on swaps. Which, as you would expect is slightly lower, due to the increased availability of BTC swap.

So, On its own all the chart tells me is that more BTC is being loaned out to others than before. It doesn't tell me if this is outsized compared to USD swap interest.

2. Another thing I recall, and I'm sure I'll be corrected if it doesn't work this way. Is that the leverage anyone has available to them is some dollar value based on calculated account value x some leverage factor. The account value is calculated based on total USD and total BTC at their market value in a given instant.

I also seem to recall that you can then use your available leverage to go long *or* short. The implication here being that USD swap and BTC swap are just 2 components that make up the total swap that is being utilised by everyone who is currently long or short BTC on leverage.

If that is the case - and I repeat I may have this wrong, its been a while since I used bitfinex! - then swap interest only really tells us about how active the market is, and says nothing about longs vs short interest.

Now if anyone can give me a cast iron guarantee (amidst the usual internet sea of unfounded opinions) that borrowed BTC can *only* be used to go short, and borrowed USD can *only* be used to go long then that clears up point 2.

Point 1 remains though, whats the USD swap like? are they both up? or is there some divergence - which would give us something more telling I think?

HODL

You called it! nasty drop there from 212 down to 201 a few hours ago...

write off every cent you put into bitcoin. assume its already dead. *then* hold. its much easier that way. (and also forces you to consider every €50 you might think of buying BTC with from here on in - in line with your own circumstances)

I know have an overwhelming urge to buy this t-shirt!

That's why I set it at 5k to get the highest number of bets against to increase my possible return. Win big or go home

Worst case for me is if it ramps up but doesn't break 5k. I could lose anything up to $24999.99 !

Love or hate MP he's smart enough to know not to kill the golden goose. Bitbet takes 1% of everything win or lose. Of all the scummy unregulated bitcoin sites there are this is probably one of the less scummy imho.

I never use the winkdex, but I like those winklevoss brothers they seem like fun guys. So in a roundabout way this bet promotes there site.

Also there is allegedly an ETF coming, perhaps the winkdex will end up being more important than everyone thinks!