Surely, looking forward to it.

We each realize that some of the BTC price resistance points change, depending on BTC price movements and sometimes how fast the BTC price might move in one direction or another or even how severe or prolonged a correction might be.

Currently, we do seem to be stuck in a fairly narrow BTC price zone around $11k, but we have only been here for 3.5 days.

So sure it would be quite amazing (but not out of the question) if we were to get into the deadzone within the next 1 week to 3 months... and in that kind of quicker getting there scenario, I would expect resistance at $13,880 and at $17,250.. and also more likelihood to fail getting through the deadzone, if we get there so quickly - especially given that we were having troubles getting above and staying above $10k for about the past 10 months or so.

On the other hand, if it takes more than 3 months or even up to 18 months in your slowly getting up there scenario to break above $17,250, then that might change the dynamics and probably in that longer drawn out scenario, I would think that my deadzone theory would be stronger in a slowly getting there scenario, but either way, I am maintaining a tentative deadzone theory but that deadzone theory would be weaker, if we were to go shooting up within the zone in less than 3 months without getting some kind of somewhat meaningful correction first.

Ok.  Fair enough.  Each of us has made our point in this regard, and it is possible that I may have misunderstood some of your emphasis in terms of how you might want to play this area that I consider to be a deadzone, which is in the territory of between $17,250 and $23,500.

If you have never sold BTC previously, and you consider yourself to be such a strong hand, I remain a bit unclear why you would be contemplating any kind of meaningful resistance within any BTC prices between $17,250 and $23,500?

Might you not be contradicting yourself a bit to be worried about such price arena?  

I personally have suggested to people to take some BTC off the table at various points, which in this case might be before and after the deadzone, but not so much within the deadzone.... but sure, each BTC HODLer has their own way of dealing with how to manage their finances and their psychology, and surely planning does make it less likely that any BTC HODLer would run the risk of panicking.. whither that is selling too much too early or other strategic errors that might be too numerous to list.

By the way, as you may have recognized, I frequently talk about short-term BTC price movements in terms of 50/50 chances, but I don't talk that way about the deadzone... so that was probably why I was all on your case regarding the probabilities that you seemed to have been assigning to the deadzone, including the motives of various kinds of BTC HODLers that would supposedly be "feeling" like bag holders.

My own thesis continues to be that the Bagholder theory is a bunch of bullshit.

There are not so many people who supposedly bought BTC in the supra $14k to $20k range and are so fucking anxious to get rid of their BTC merely because all of a sudden they are in profits 3 years or more later.  Sure, there might be some dumb asses who think about their BTC Holdings in such a way, but the vast majority who have not already been shaken from their BTC holdings would have had nearly 3 years to buy some more and to average their prices down, and so what, anyhow, if there are some folks who are whining about having a negative BTC portfolio because they sat on their hands for 3 years and did not do shit to bring down their average cost per BTC.  They are aberrations and they are going to be out numbered by various other kinds of buyers, whether newbies or other kinds of buyers who are going to cause the BTC price to go shooting past the deadzone and the previous ATH.. whether it takes 3-4 months or more and whether there might be some headfakes within that deadzone..  once we get above  $17,250, pretty much we are going to be going above $23,500 and largely you can count on it with higher than 50/50 odds.. one of the rare moments in bitcoin probabilities that odds are NO longer 50/50 or lower.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah  (don't be listening to random peeps on the interwebs for BTC investment/trading advices)


exactamente!!!!

Dickering around at $11k is way better than dickering around at $9,300s and even $9,300s was much better than when we were dickering around in the $6ks/$7ks for much of April.

That failure/refusal to sell any can cut both ways, including causing a person to feel some kind of necessity to sell, when really shaving some profits along the way may well remove any such urge.

By the way, I would concede that getting into BTC in early 2011 or so, is going to create all kinds of advantages relative to later entrants.. such as myself, including the fact that if you have never sold any BTC, then even if you had made the mistake of buying lots of BTC at the wrong time, you still would likely have a pretty low average cost per BTC for any of those early BTC.

Anyhow, I would speculate that such early entrance into BTC should cause a bit more confidence in terms of NOT really worrying about tops or bottoms or timeing the BTC price with any kind of precision.   Go figure.


Of course, buying more BTC along the way is all a good practice in part because many of us earn money in fiat along the way, so we would not have the same capital or even foresight or even ability to earn capital 5 or 10 years down the road.

So, yeah accounting for our cashflow or even inflation, in theory our cash flow should be going up through the years , or at least, still coming in all along the passage of time, so we can take advantage of cash as it comes available that was not previously available.




O.k.  Maybe I overspeculated, but surely, some of your points suggest that you might be worrying about little things and even trying to time the market, when that does not seem to be a very prudent approach, especially for anyone who has been in bitcoin for more than 9 years already... makes me feel like a bitcoin baby with less than 7 years.   




I did not consider what I said to have been dumb when I said it.

I thought that I was largely attempting to address the concept of the dead zone, and you had come up with a theory that speculated that the deadzone was NOT a deadzone.

With your more than 9 years in bitcoinlandia, you should already know that those theories of supposed everyone wanting to sell their BTC at the previous ATH had been presented numerous times before, and there tends to be little to no actual evidence to support those kind of selling at previous ATH theories beyond the fact that a lot of people spout them out as if there were facts to actually back them up.  Am I missing something?



Psychology is only one portion of any market, whether bitcoin or otherwise.


Did you ever hear me suggest that any of us should be winging it?  I am all for planning, and maybe I was just asserting that your plan to sell in the deadzone was not a good plan?  I was not asserting that you should not plan, and even if you decide to sell in the deadzone, that is your choice.  I was merely expressing my opinion about it, which I already did in my earlier post.


You are preaching to the choir.  You believe that I do not have various plans?  Or that I am not in agreement about having plans?


We are on the same page, there.  Seems like.


Sure, it is possible that I overstated the case or I used language that was too strong.  Otherwise, I have no reason NOT to stand by the rest of my post and the overall contents of it.  If I got some of your details wrong, then maybe my post should be just considered as more of a general observation rather than about you, or your specific situation?  even though it did seem that you were contemplating selling BTC (perhaps even too much) in the deadzone based on considerations that seemed to be improbable outcomes - and that was largely meant to be my point.

Something like that - I am afraid to say.

Hypothetically, yes.  


You deserve this V8!!!!!!  



I am sorry, V8.  I provokedly slapped in your direction upon reading about shitcoinery before I realized your ambivalent shrug.  

My bbbbbaaaaaaadddddd.


I was trained (some label that as "programmed" - deny... ) to deny first, and ask questions later.

In other words, I am never going to admit to anything whether material or trivial, even if I might have perhaps made some seeming statement, at some point, that appears to be an in the ballpark of an admission.. It is not.  You must have misread the context.    

I am NOT going to proclaim that anything cannot happen, but your P.S is the more likely scenario.

Every fucking time, HODLers are so worried about those wanting to get out, and they bought at $14k and they just want to make some profits, blah blah blah.

It's just not going to happen.  The buys are way more likely to outnumber the sells.

Sure, of course, there may likely be some headfakes, and even several days or weeks of wondering which way she is going to go, but in the end, from about $17,250 to about $23,500 is a fucking dead zone.

Sure, no two exponential price rises play out the same way, and sure, we might get more head faking than we though was possible (including believing that the head-faking is real), but in the end, you should not be planning to sell large amounts in the deadzone... sure.. protect your lil selfie a bit, but the  2-3 more years of a correction or whatever from the previous ATH range is nearly pure scare rather than a way to really contemplate what scenarios are more likely and which ones are less likely.

Again, sure anything can happen, but seems ridiculous to be preparing yourself for less than 5% scenarios rather than preparing yourself for 45% scenarios, and sure that does not mean that NO preparation needs to be done for the 5% scenarios, but each of us should be attempting to prepare in accordance to the likelihood of the scenarios instead of attributing bad probability assignments to low likelihood events.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
 
nohomo


Yep... exactly.. you are proving my point.

Those 3-4 months, right around the beginning of 2017 seemed like a long fuckign time, while they were happening, but the reality of the matter is that they were a blip on the radar in the whole scheme of things.. and looking back, we largely sailed right the hell past previous ATH of $1,163... even though that sailing past took nearly 4 months.... hahahahahaha

Of course, also, history is not going to repeat with any kind of exactness... but still does not mean that any of us should be overweighting those FUD spreading (shaking of the weak hands) scenarios in order to be included in the weak hand category.. which it sounds as if you, cAPSLOCK, have a predisposition to be.


philipma1957 is way nicer than me.

 

Yes.... it does..

You are absolutely

NO

FUN!!!!!!!!

 

Personally, I believe that the larger the market cap, the more likely bitcoin curve (and price) is going to be flattening out...

Pretty likely that it will start to flatten out somewhat in the $10million to $100 million range.

Why don't you an d some of your rich buddies test it out to try to prove me wrong?  

I dare you.  I double dare you.  I will bet you a whole bitcoin.   

Fair enough... you party poop.

I was largely just emoticating for funzies... and for exaggeration purposes.

I mean if you look at the contents of my earlier post.  I was saying that based on recent BTC price rises, I had pre-ordered hookers, lambos and blow, but then after reading OutOfMemory's negative nancy price prediction post, I had to go through the efforts of cancelling my seemingly premature pre-orders.

Could anyone really take those kinds of representations seriously, except maybe metaphorically?   

 

Hopefully, you can let us know how some of this goes for you, whether while you are carrying out your various sales or after the fact.

I understand that sometimes some forum members do not want to share too many of their buy/sell point specific details because it could screw up their plan if others end up front-running their various buy/sell BTC price points in the even their plan gets too much publicity or further adoption.

I think that you have precisely identified the issue, LFC.

When you sell your BTC, you gotta be ready, willing and able to leave the proceeds of those sales on the table forever and ever and ever and NOT be planning, hoping or wishing to buy back lower.

So, it appears that you have never been willing to take that chance, and I doubt that anyone can fault you for that personal inclination, even if some of us might come to differing conclusions regarding at what points to sell some BTC and how much.

I have actually seen you revise your thinking on this matter through the years, and probably both of us can recall that you had gone through tentative plans to sell very large portions of your BTC in around the $50k region (surely a price that we have never reached, yet), but you seemed to have modified your thinking and even revised plans that are still going to allow you to reach your hookers, lambos and blow goals in somewhat revised ways that are presumably even better tailored to your own situation, including your risk tolerance and other personal variables.

Anyhow, I admit that some members might get somewhat bored with my repetition, and I have even had to revise my psychology along the way too, because when I was first selling BTC in late 2015, I was having some difficult times to really psychologically leave those sales behind - and surely, I have way fewer psychological issues in that direction these days, and my thinking is more strongly in the arena that if I make any sale of my BTC whether it is .001, or .0352818 or some other BTC amount, I am largely ready, willing and able to leave those BTC behind if the price does not return to my preset points.  

Sure, I might tweak my sell or my buy back plan here and there along the way, and I do make some tweaks on a fairly regular basis, but my overall psychology has become a lot stronger in terms of leaving my sales behind when I make them, and part of my own justification for that comfortable feeling is that I believe that I had largely over-invested in BTC 2014/2015, so I am more than willing to part with some of those BTC along the way.

By the way, regarding a tweak that I had done in the past couple of days, I had looked at my BTC sell settings between about $11,500 and about $14,500, and I thought that those BTC sell orders were not quite right. There was something "off" about them in terms of really harmonizing with my psychology and my then thoughts of my finances.. and of course, some psychology can change a bit when the BTC price goes shooting up $2k in less than a week with $1,700 of that price appreciation within about 12 hours.. hahahahaha.. Anyhow, I tweaked all of my BTC sell orders between $11,500 and about $14,500 that caused for better harmony and maybe even changes in the overall added up amounts being sold within that price range by somewhere in the 5% arena...

I also had various outstanding BTC sell orders between $15,500-ish and $36k-ish that had a mixture of placement dates between early 2018 and even a few stragglers that were placed in mid-2019.  I reviewed those BTC sell orders and I thought about them in terms of my current personal situation, and the punchline is that I didn't feel any need to adjust any of those $15,500 to $36k BTC sell orders, even though they had already been in place for a few years.. but I did have to make a few minor (maybe technical and not really amount-wise) adjustments to some BTC sell orders between $22k and $36k for an exchange that I had NOT been using very much in early 2017/2018.. so I had not yet created those BTC sell orders between $22k and $36k, which I accomplished in the past couple of days...

Side note: interesting that with this particular BTC price move, I ended up being more motivated to toothpick level analyze all of my BTC sell orders between $22k and $36k, when I had not been motivated to do such tweaking at any earlier date, including our April-June 2019 BTC price rise to $13,880.  That April-June 2019 BTC price rise (and/or any subsequent BTC price movement, until this recent one) did not motivate me to even consider tweaking those $22k to $36k BTC sell orders.

Personally, I do believe that some deviation from a self-created plan (or even a plan that any guy might have taken from someone else) can be employed, but having a pretty strongly thought out plan is way better than not having much if any kind of plan, so at least if you already have a buy/sell/HODL plan, you at least know from what you are deviating, in the event that you consider or employ deviation to your plan.

Many of us likely realize that one of the major issues with mindrust is that he seemed to have not been sufficiently convicted in his BTC plan, and then when he actually deviated from his plan, it deviated in a very extreme way, like throwing out both the bathwater and the baby.. and then coming up with some feel good, and likely quite inferior plan.

Sure, we cannot exactly get in the head of mindrust, even though he did give us a decent amount of contemporary thoughts that he was having at the time of his crisis, and so even he disclosed along the way and during the crisis that he was having that he was really NOT very prepared some some extreme scenarios, and accordingly, he was already planning to fly by the seat of his pants, somewhat, if any extreme scenario were to unfold... part of the reason that I am such a fan of incrementalism in something like bitcoin - even though probably many of us do imagine some extreme scenarios that might even cause each of us to lose our shit.


Have you been employing such strategy over the years, Wekkel?  If so, for how long, and if so, did you screw up some times along the way? or did you take some time to figure out such a seemingly objective approach to this matter?

Also, how do you know when and how much to buy back?  Is there a certain measurement that you use, or do you just "wing" the easy-peasy part?

 


Again.  I am beat to the punchline.     Only by 9 hours, but who is counting besides me?

Maybe you have not completely failed, especially if you learned from your earlier attempts regarding what does not work for you?

Also, could have been that you were playing with too much.

My personal system is just a series of longs and I do not short, but I consider it to be largely successful.

I spend nearly my first year and a half in bitcoin (late 2013 to mid 2015) merely just accumulating BTC in order to get up to my accumulation target, which was supposed to be about 10% of my quasi-investible assets in bitcoin. 

So, largely I met my BTC accumulation goal by the end of 2014, and then since there was such a down year in bitcoin throughout 2015, I continued to accumulate BTC through mostly DCA (no real buying on dips become there were's so many dips in 2015), so I went passed my accumulation goal; therefore, once I strategized and started to employ my selling BTC on the way up strategy, starting in about the end of 2015.. sure I even screwed some of that up in the beginning... but anyhow the overall plan that developed was to sell about 1% of the value of my holdings for every 10% that the BTC price went up and then in the even that the BTC price went down, then I would use the sales proceeds to buy back. 

Largely I consider my system to be successful and profitable for stacking sats and increasing overall value.

One of the benefits of my system is that mostly I am emotionally neutral about the short term price direction, and as long as the BTC price goes up with the passage of time, my system is profitable.

I know some guys will suggest that I might try to sell BIGGER on BIGGER price swings or buy BIGGER on BIGGER BTC price dips, and maybe I can do that here and there along the way, so long as I largely am staying with my overall system, even while I do tend to make some smaller personalized tweaks along the way.

By the way, my having had overinvested in BTC in 2014 and 2015 and then being a bit of a scrouge mcduck regarding how much BTC to sell along the way up  (as we know that we are up from 2014/2015), there is considerable comfort in just having  a cushion of profit to be able to sell a decent chunk of BTC at any time, whether on the rise or on a BTC price dip, and either way, those sold BTC are profitable.... maybe not as profitable as they could be, but sufficiently profitably to cause me to feel that I have a lot of options, which is a lot of freedom in itself.

I can also take a 10% 20% or even 50% portion of my BTC stash and fuck around with attempting to trade it to make more profits out of it, if I want to do that, and I would still have a decent remaining BTC stash that is just stored in a long status.  Especially during a long BTC price dipping period, it could be very tempting to sell off a BIGGER portion of my BTC stash and play the BIG price waves to make potential profits, and surely some guys are more comfortable with those strategies than other guys and surely some BTC price performance situations could inspire me to go down some variation of that path in the future (I have not really done that, so far, in any kind of LARGE way).

And if I am going to employ such strategies, my preference is to plan ahead, and therefore I would most likely be selling some portion (or even larger portion) on the way up... not at any point when the BTC price is correcting back down.. that has been my overall approach to anything that I attempt to sell bigger or buy bigger is that I sell on the way up and buy on the way down, even if I do not get anywhere close to the exact tops or the exact bottoms.. I still tend to be happy with my approach because I plan it ahead of time and let the BTC price come to my predetermined price point in which I am already planning to act in one direction or another (to either gain more cash or to accumulate more BTC).

Part of my point here is that I believe that there are likely a variety of somewhat prudent and incrementalism practicing strategies that can be employed that cause guys to become somewhat more profitable by allowing the BTC price to come to them and to NOT be gambling too much from almost inevitable BTC price volatility, and guys can make prudent BTC management plans around that even if they are just buying or selling a small portion of the value of their BTC portfolio with various BTC price moves, and hopefully overall the goal would be to stack sats with the passage of time.. even if some of the shaving off of stats while the BTC price goes up (like I mentioned above... something like 1% for every 10% rise or some other variation) would most likely cause a guy to have less BTC at $40k than he had at $8.5k.. but overall way more value and way more options.. .presuming that he had already largely met his BTC accumulation goal in the $8.5k-ish territory... which seems like a somewhat reasonable presumption for any guy that has been in BTC for 4 years, even assuming if he screwed up quite a bit in the first year (talking about you, Wind_FURY... hahahahaha .. but hopefully, not in any kind of personal way or even OP_Sec breaching way or even any goading to cause you defensiveness way... hahahahaha).

Well that sucks.

You can only do what you can do... so just hoping the best to you in terms of whatever amount of DCA that you are able to reasonably employ in the coming years and that you have a long timeline (life) in front of you to make sure to be able to ensure profit in terms of the hookers, lambos and blow that would follow with a long enough investment time horizon... seems to me.

You might be rushing it a bit there, bad boy.  


You must be referring to the "royal we"?



I already ordered my hookers, lambos and blow..... .. waiting for delivery...


Just saying.

 


I am calling right now to cancel my several orders.. referred to in my earlier response... and my lil selfie is in HODL MODL right now...



Sucks to be me.. so many BTC emotional roller coasters..    

It's possible that some WO peeps are just getting a bit tooooooooooooooo



CiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiITttttttt
tttttttttEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
EEEeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Just saying.

I don't exactly consider that video, or even the song, as very inspirational, but I did watch the whole thing... ... so merit for the introduction and cross -reference of a little bit of cultural variation.. and I suppose if I were to listen to that song enough times, I may even end up catching a bit of an earworm from such a song.. .so I see why you mentioned it... which might not be an outcome that I would appreciate..  


Perhaps, you have not been able to get your coins back yet, VB1001, from your sale from several months ago?



Probably, the newbies are going to blame LFC for all of it, when they really should be blaming jbreher.

Not, even knowing that jbreher is amongst our MOST favorite of punching bags (even though jbreher had not had a day named after himself, yet).   hahahahahahaha


At minimum.... absent exercising discretion thereafter.   

Even if he has some stash hidden away, I am having difficulties understanding circumstances in which he is actually released.  It's like Julian Assange or Chelsee Manning... lot's of injustices in those kinds of seemingly political battles.. even if there might be some other variations of accusations...

Maybe one of the reasons that Edward Snowden has not been able to negotiate some kind of return to the USA agreement?

Yep.  Whoaza!!!!

Writing abilities and reading comprehension abilities are not the same skills.

There are a lot of people who do not practice good listening or reading skills because they are too busy trying to think about what to say or write instead of attempting to comprehend.

Furthermore, not all writing is at the same level.  Some writing is more densely packed with ideas than other writing.

Even if a reader may understand all of the words of a sentence, sometimes the reader still might not understand the overall idea(s) presented therein.

Sometimes a reader may need to read sentences or paragraphs many times before starting to understand their meaning(s).

You do not need to go to school or college to learn these kinds of reading/listening comprehension skills, but surely exposure to more complex ideas or even various aspects of the sciences is going to increase reading and listening comprehension skills - as well as practice.. these kinds of skills do not come to individuals equally... and each of us likely have some strengths and weaknesses in where we are at and where we might be ready, willing and/or able to take ourselves.