[DefaultTrust Statistics. Updated: Week 242 / 02/09/23]

For DT1 statistics see here

DefaultTrust Statistics. Updated: Week 242 / 02/09/23

x-axis = weeks | y-axis = strength
























All Time Member Stats













Weekly DT Stats













Source: DT-strength.txt | Reference: DT1-strength of 211 users in 113 weeks (weekly updates)

As sourced from here, the mempool registered a total of 613K+ transactions today, with a slight increase of average transaction cost in recent days from around 6 to 15 sats/vB.



Do people think this high usage is good or bad for Bitcoin? Are there still many inscriptions being made on the network or is this more financial transactions?

Although I prefer the mempool priced around 4-6 sats/vB, I'm also happy being patient if not urgent, like most network users it seems.

[Daily time-frame]

Some TA based on current price-movements and support zones now the market is moving again.. Personally, I'm anticipating a bounce from around $27,500 - $27,500, based on Daily, 3D and Weekly time-frames.

Strangely enough the 200 moving average on each of these three time-frames are around the same price, for the first time in a very long time (can't remember last time).

Daily time-frame: 200 MA @ $27,234. Bullish with 1 re-test as support in March and will continue to increase with price above $25K



Likelihood of a bounce from the 200 Day MA remains likely based on previous bullish re-test and current market structure of higher high and higher lows. Price is currently around 3% from this level.


3 Day time-frame - 200 MA @ $27,470. Still bearish and will continue to decline for next 4 months with price below $40K



In previous Bitcoin bear markets price has entered a long period of consolidation (9-12 months) post bear market and bear market relief rally when the 3 Day 200 MA is declining, with price generally remaining above it. This happened in both 2015/2016 as well as 2019/2020, so could potentially lead into 2024 given price only regained this level in June. Am otherwise anticipating for this level to hold as support, as it did in previous years when price reclaimed this level, with the likelihood of a re-test at some point later in the year or early 2024, as well as the case in 2016 as well as 2020.


Weekly time-frame - 200 MA @ $27,441. Remains bullish after re-test in June and will continue to increase with price above $10K



Although the 200 WMA seems less significant as support or resistance in the past year, it is none the less priced very close to the 200 Day MA that has acted in support in recent months, as well as the 3 Day 200 MA that has acted as support (once reclaimed) in recent years.Generally I think the chance of finding a "co-incidental" bounce from this level seems likely, as it will merely be the Daily/3D charts playing out in their usual manner. No doubt if price does turn this MA into new support, many will claim it will be because of it's significance, but personally I think will simpler be the lower time-frames that causes this to happen.


TL:DR: After initially anticipating the likes of $40K-$50K this year for a dead cat bounce / bear market rally, it's now starting to look more likely for continued consolidation between $25K and $32K for the next few months in my opinion. Volume and momentum continues to decline for both the bulls and the bears while price action remains in a bullish structure on mid to long-term time-frames, with notable confluence of mid to long-term support around $27,000 to $27,500. The bears otherwise need to breach $25K in order to invalidate the higher highs and higher lows structure of the current uptrend.


For fundamental analysis I recommend Glassnode's recent newsletter: Exhaustion and Apathy

Another bullish factor based on network strength: Hash Ribbons buy signal last week
 

So it's that time again, another Hash Ribbons buy signal, the third in as many years. For more info on this indicator click here.

The capitulation a month prior at $30.3K didn't amount to much price or miner capitulation, with only around -3% price correction prior to the buy signal last week at $29.4K.



Recent buy signals:

January 2023: $20,882 ✅
August 2021 $43,284 ❌
December 2020: $19,378 ✅
July 2020: $9,306 ✅
April 2020: $7,704 ✅

(Ticks and crosses represent good/bad signals)

My interpretation:

As you can see, it's far from as reliable as it has been in the past with signals in August 2021 as well as December 2019 that although at first saw price appreciate by around 50%, it was followed by a significant drop below the buy signal price of around 40-60%.  Nonetheless this is the 14th buy signal on the weekly time-frame in the past 12 years, or otherwise the 11th in the same period on the monthly time-frame.

However, it is has been the case in all previous 13 buy signals that price has either initially increased by 50%+, or otherwise consolidated sideways prior to considerably higher increase (3-9x in recent years).

So despite the bullish price momentum subsiding, and price threatening to re-test the lows again, there remains some fundamentally strong aspects regarding the network atm. It's also worth noting that this signal doesn't often lead to immediate bullish price action. More often than not there are still weeks/months left of consolidation prior to a move to the upside, as this is usually a very "early" indicator of bullishness.

Previous Hash Ribbons topics:

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy Signal 19/08 (2022)
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert! (2022)
Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Update - Capitulation Again? (2022)
Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 Extrapolation (2020)
Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245 (2019)

So I thought I'd try and gauge sentiment over how another Bitcoin ETF will affect price in the immediate term if approved, as well as offer my own personal opinion.

I understand it's considered bullish for Bitcoin long-term, but in the short-term, I'm not so convinced it will be good for price. As many of you may remember, when CME/CBOE launched futures trading for Bitcoin in December 2017 this was very much at the peak of the bull-run before a -83% correction in price. Then there was the Bakkt futures launch in September 2019 prior to a further price decline of -50%+. Finally there was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that was (again) launched at the very peak of the bull market in November 2021 prior to a 75% price decline. Is anyone else noticing a pattern here???

I realise that previous futures launches are different than the current proposed ETFs, as far as I understand, but the facts remains the same. Each time a traditional form of investment product based on Bitcoin has been launched, price has corrected significantly, between 50% and 83% basically. What's as concerning is that price is currently at a resistance level which could now become a local peak...

Ideally any new product won't be launched until price reaches $40K to $50K levels at a minimum, so that a correction doesn't threaten recent lows. But otherwise I imagine it will be the same old story of "buy the rumour sell the news", with a potential long-term bullish effect on Bitcoin but only after a short-term negative effect that becomes the catalyst for a considerable correction in price.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong if there were Bitcoin Futures/ETF launches that didn't negatively effect price in the short-term, as based on my current knowledge, this has been the only outcome so far.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Do you really think another ETF launch would cause an immediate price increase, or is it more like to have an immediate negative effect on price?

[+31.5%]

As of today (June 20th), the following year on year returns are as follows. As highlighted, Bitcoin is currently the best performer vs traditional stock market indexes:

DJI: +12%
S&P: +17%
NDQ: +30.7%
BTC: +31.5%

I realise this is subjective as Bitcoin's initial capitulation was in June, whereas traditional markets had already fallen considerably by May, but still the statistics remain relevant:

If you had invested X amount into BTC one year ago at $20.5K, it would have outperformed the major indexes available; Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Do you think Bitcoin will continue to outperform these indexes by the end of the year, or will traditional stocks or fiat currency outperform in Q3 & Q4?

As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $31K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.



As can be seen by the chart above, today price is breaking the resistance trend-line as well as moving back above the 50 Day MA that price has remained below for the past 5 weeks.

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.

As many of you probably know by now, the SEC is suing Binance, and more recently Coinbase as well. How does this affect altcoins? 61 have so far been labelled as securities by the SEC:

The SEC has now declared that these 48 crypto tokens are securities: XRP (XRP), Telegram’s Gram (TON), LBRY Credits (LBC), OmiseGo (OMG), DASH (DASH), Algorand (ALGO), Naga (NGC), Monolith (TKN), IHT Real Estate (IHT), Power Ledger (POWR), Kromatica (KROM), DFX Finance (DFX), Amp (AMP), Rally (RLY), Rari Governance Token (RGT), DerivaDAO (DDX), XYO Network (XYO), Liechtenstein Cryptoasset Exchange (LCX), Kin (KIN) Salt Lending (SALT), Beaxy Token (BXY), DragonChain (DRGN), Tron (TRX), BitTorrent (BTT), Terra USD (UST), Luna (LUNA), Mirror Protocol (MIR), Mango (MNGO), Ducat (DUCAT), Locke (LOCKE), EthereumMax (EMAX), Hydro (HYDRO), BitConnect (BCC), Meta 1 Coin (META1), Filecoin (FIL), BNB (BNB), Binance USD (BUSD), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Cosmos (ATOM), The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), Axie Infinity (AXS), COTI (COTI), Paragon (PRG) and AirToken (AIR).

In addition, the SEC has deemed that these 13 Mirror Protocol mAssets are securities: Mirrored Apple Inc. (mAAPL), Mirrored Amazon.com, Inc. (mAMZN), Mirrored Alibaba Group Holding Limited (mBABA), Mirrored Alphabet Inc. (mGOOGL), Mirrored Microsoft Corporation (mMSFT), Mirrored Netflix, Inc. (mNFLX), Mirrored Tesla, Inc. (mTSLA), Mirrored Twitter Inc. (mTWTR), Mirrored iShares Gold Trust (mIAU), Mirrored Invesco QQQ Trust (mQQQ), Mirrored iShares Silver Trust (mSLV), Mirrored United States Oil Fund, LP (mUSO), Mirrored ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (mVIXY).

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-labels-61-cryptocurrencies-securities-after-binance-suit


This appears to be the biggest SEC lawsuits against crypto exchanges so far, that affects approximately 10% of the crypto market (based on market cap), ie $100 billion worth of tokens.

How do you think this will affect altcoins in the near future? Notably Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Dogecoin haven't been considered securities, so personally I think value could now flow into them after this announcement (apart from BNB), away from others that are at risk of being sued. Potentially these lawsuits will be fought and won, but otherwise the labelling of these securities may well stick.

As can be seen from the chart below, Bitcoin bounced last week from the 200 Week MA (blue line) currently at $26.3K. This is now the third week price has tested this level as new support, but do you think it will hold?



Earlier in the month I didn't think it would act as much support, as only recently in February did it act as resistance for a couple of weeks, however this was arguably came from the 50 Week MA - purple line - that was trending downwards in bearish formation. Now the 50 WMA is trending back to the upside for the first time since 2021 with the 20 Week MA due to cross the 200 WMA in the coming weeks.

So far price has corrected around -16% from the yearly highs of $31K which is considerably less than the 20%+ correction from $25K to $20K earlier in the year. I still think a 20%-25% correction remains possible, which would be relatively normal after a 100% increase in recent months, taking price to around $23K to $25K, but so far on the Weekly time-frame price is looking optimistic for now.

What are your thoughts? Do you think the local low is in after the recent bounce from $26K to $28K, or does Bitcoin have further to correct before continuing to the upside?

Based on the estimate from bitcoinblockhalf.com, the 2024 halving will be end of April with other estimates calculating it as beginning of April, even as early as March.

While not getting too bogged down in the timing which is dependant on whether there continues to be hash rate growth (to bring it forward) or not, when do you think the bull market will start?

The last halving was in May 2020 and arguably the bull market started a few months after this, as instead there was consolidation around $9K for several months, whereas in 2016 the bull market more or less started immediately after the July halving, or even arguably around 6 months beforehand as price had already increased over 100% from the lows without a significant correction.

I also remember in 2019 many were anticipating that price would increase in the 6 months leading up to the halving similar to 2016, which started to happen at the beginning of 2020 until the Covid crash occurred, hence instead price took several months to recover, although was slightly higher than it was 6 months prior to halving at around $7K, but not before re-visiting $4K.

I realise when the bull market takes off will also be dependant on price action, for example if there is another black swan event at the start of 2024 then this could result in a delay like in 2020. But otherwise do you generally think the bull market will start before or after the halving, or otherwise more or less immediately after the halving, and do you think there will be any other relevant factors other than the halving?

Interested to hear your thoughts...

After price increased by 10% this month from the opening price of around $28.K, the monthly candle is now down around 4%. Do you think it will now end in the red, if so by how much?

Personally I think reclaiming $28.5K within a week remains possible, given the lack of bearish pressure to push prices below $27K, but also unlikely to see a particularly green candle above $31K. Price is otherwise between the 20 & 50 Month Moving Averages, currently priced at $32.2K and $24.5K respectively. The former is currently trending downwards in bearish formation, the latter is trending upwards in bearish formation.



Price is otherwise re-testing the 50 Day MA at $27.1K, that failed to act as support last month, after the "golden cross" that occurred with the 200 Day MA back in February:



FYI This is just intended as a short-term topic/poll, will lock the thread at the end of the month once the result has been confirmed.

With price dropping today from $30K to around $29K, are you worried there will be a deeper correction, or return to bear market, or is this just the short-term correction before re-testing $30K?

Many speculators anticipated rejection from $30K level, as this was previously support for 18 months in from 2021 to mid 2022 and could become strong resistance. Although so far (as of writing) we have only seen a -5% correction to $29K. Ultimately I think it's too early to tell if price will correct further to $25K, $23K or break the recent higher low of $20K. But nonetheless people have started to get concerned, hence this thread.

Some positives to consider:

• Price remains above all Daily moving averages (20,50,200) while above $29K, so far from bearish longer-term
• Price remains in a bull flag / upwards trend since mid March with short-term support level around $28.6K
• Price previously broke through $25K strong resistance that could well turn into new support
• The current sell-off isn't supported by strong volume, similar to the move to $30K initially

These are just a few factors that come to mind. While short-term (1hr/4hr) price can be seen as bearish, it remains bullish on the Daily time-frame and still reversing the bearish trend on Weekly/Monthly time-frames.

Personally I think $28K level is likely to act as strong support, due to the 3 weeks of consolidation/accumulation that occurred recently. Otherwise below this level I think a re-test of the 200 WMA around $26K, as well as $25K becomes increasingly likely. The 200 Day MA however continues to rise from $20K, now above $21K, with major consolidation/accumulation zone currently priced at around $23K.

With price now at the 2021-2022 previous 18-month long support level around $30K, as highlighted, where do you think price will go next?



Is it finally time for a correction back towards the lows, or a continued relief rally towards $50K? Similar to $25K, this is a level where many speculators believe price might be strongly rejected, because the previous strong support level could well turn into new resistance. There is otherwise the argument that above this level Bitcoin is confirming a U-shaped recovery, with a target of up to 80% to the upside.

[1. Breaking back above 50 Week Moving Average]

After Bitcoin's +26% increase in price last week, as well as +40% within the span of 10 days, many are now questioning whether the bottom is truly in for Bitcoin or if this is just another relief rally. While there may well be a pull-back to $25K (or further) and/or consolidation around $30K prior to further upside, various indicators are already suggesting the bottom is in if history is anything to go by.

Here is a short compilation of 4 indicators, 50 Week MA, MA Ribbon, Ichimoku Cloud and Hash Ribbons (I may add more if others reference them but only if they have been accurate in the past).

Bare in mind that previous performance does not guarantee future results, this is just available data so far for analysis...


1. Breaking back above 50 Week Moving Average



As can be seen from previous bear markets in 2015 and 2019, each time price has closed back above the bearish trending (decreasing) 50 Week MA, it has confirmed a low for the price of Bitcoin. Notably each time there has been the initial support from it when trending bullish (increasing), prior to the rejection that kick starts the bear market. Back in 2021, the situation wasn't much different.


2. Breaking back above Weekly MA Ribbon



Similar to the 50 Week MA, as utilises 5-50 MA in 5 bar increments, each time price has closed back above the bearish formation of the ribbon, price has signalled a low. Historically, price has been unable to move above in bear markets. This is more a broadened perspective of the same concept, as is fundamentally based on closing back above the 50 Week MA.


3. Breaking above 3 Day Ichimoku Cloud



Using a slightly different indicator, the picture is similar to the previous two. Bitcoin has never previously managed to break out of the bearish cloud formation during it's bear markets in 2015 and 2019 until a bullish cross-over occurred, although was close in 2015. Instead, price get's rejected from the cloud until the bottom has formed and price is able to move above it, creating the bullish cross-over.


4. Hash Ribbons 1 Month buy signal



While not always providing a buy signal based on combined network and price strength, such as in 2019 when only a recovery signal appeared, it has none the less never provided a buy signal during bear markets.  After the strong +40% close in January, this indicator provided the first buy signal since mid-2021.


5. Breaking above resistance downtrend on Monthly chart



One the simplest ways to analyse whether Bitcoin has formed a bottom is the break of a long-term resistance downtrend on monthly chart. As can be seen in 2011, 2015 and 2018, each time price broke out above a long-term resistance downtrend of at least 6 months (but usually 12 months), price has failed to make new low. Even if such was the case in 2015 that price re-tested near the lows.


In summary, there is a lot of discussion at the moment of not wanting to FOMO into Bitcoin at current prices, given the rapid rise from $20K to around $28K. However, for longer-term investors who have been waiting for Bitcoin to show bullish strength before gaining exposure, then this is admittedly the time, somewhat regardless of price. This was first signalled by the Hash Ribbons indicator around $23K in January followed by the Ichimoku Cloud in February at a similar price, and finally the 50 Week MA / MA Ribbon indicator at around $28K in March, so combined this would be an average of $25K for reference sake.

No doubt there were other indicators that signalled a bottom earlier (even too early!), and others that may well do so later, but I chose these as they have so far been more reliable in Bitcoin's bear markets.

With price now back at $20K after rejection from $25K, what comes next for Bitcoin: $23K resistance level or $17K support level?



Based on volume profile, most of the volume has been traded between $19K and $20.5K with some selling pressure around $23K and volume point of control around $17K.

The bullish: The 200 Day MA is neutral (flat) at $19.7K after "golden cross" with 50 Day MA in January. The 20 Week MA is bullish (rising) at similar price.

The bearish: The 50 Week MA at $23.5K is trending downwards after weekly "death cross" that rejected price. Next week it will be at $23K.



Personally I'm leaning towards re-testing $23K over $17K, as long as $19K level (200 Day MA, 20 Week MA and high volume area) can hold as new support.

Previous topic & poll: What comes next for Bitcoin: $20K or $30K?

With price currently testing $25K for the forth time in recent days, was curious on current market sentiment. Do you think $20K or $30K will happen next?



Personally I think if price can reclaim $25K then we will see $30K next, but otherwise if price drops below $23K then $20K becomes more likely again, as I think $21.5K will be less likely to hold as support again.

What are your thoughts? Will the bullish uptrend continue or will price get rejected by $25K resistance level and correct back to the downside?

[Updates:]

"History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme." - Mark Twain

2019 fractal to scale with similarities so far. $25K needs to break for bull-flag confirmation. $30K needs to break for +80% upside target to ~$50K.

Thought it was time that this analysis from a few weeks ago had it's own thread. We're currently still "on track" for $50K this year based on 2019 fractal. Should also add that I see the argument for a +50% move to around $36K with current rounding bottom formation and a breakout above $25K, but otherwise not convinced this negates the +80% target to $50K+ after reclaiming $30K, instead quite the opposite.

Similar to 2019 there was the initial +30% target to around $5.2K after breaking back above $4K, followed by another rounding bottom +100% target to around $12.8K once $6.4K was reclaimed. The only difference in this scenario is that these targets are overlapped; firstly to $36K, followed by reclaiming $30K to reach $50K. Goes without saying that targets are never guaranteed to be met, even if they often are.



Source: Posted TradingView, February 1st 2023 | Screenshot: April 11th 2023.


Updates:

With price back at $20K, price is in need of (another) +20% impulsive move back above 200 Day MA in order to return to 2019 fractal, which admittedly at present looks unlikely.

More or less still tracking the 2019 fractal with a month delay. Bitcoin had another impulsive move after finding support from 200 Day MA post golden cross, this time it was +30% rather than +20%

In order to compare directly based on fibonacci retracements to 0.618 ($13.8K), here is the 2019 relief rally, prior to returning to $4K, for anyone unaware what happened back then:



Disclaimer: This isn't intended to suggest the price will reach $50K, but simply comparing 2019 and 2023 bear market relief rallies and current progress, given the similarities so far. Don't make me point to the disclaimer.

[Bottom line:]

Thought I'd share this liquidity map that I came across recently....

While some of you will know of the Liquidation Data chart from CoinGlass, this Liquidity Map from DecenTrader instead shows where leverage traders have protected their positions.

Interesting to note is the amount of short positions with liquidation prices between $25K and $26K compared to long positions between $14K and $15K right now. While there was already some liquidations yesterday with prices reaching $25K, it's clear there's still a lot more positions with liquidation prices all the way to $30K. This is the confirmation that a short squeeze to higher levels remains possible, in case there was any doubt.

This particular chart is a Bitcoin liquidations map. It shows the liquidation areas of Bitcoin traders who are using 3x, 5x, 10x leverage. It shows areas of liquidations for both long and short positions i.e. for traders who are buying, and also for those who are selling.

Bottom line: Traders remain uber bearish right now. Despite bears claiming that the market is too bullish, clearly leverage traders are overtly bearish right now around current prices.

[2019 Bitcoin Bottom]

Here and there I've referenced how this current bear market is looking similar to that of 2019 so here is a representation based on the 3 Day chart with MAs (20/50/200):

2019 Bitcoin Bottom



2022 Bitcoin Bottom



Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/krCzm4pa-BTCUSD-How-to-form-a-2019-Bottom/

As price this week closes back above the 20 MA, the key takeaways from this 2019 fractal are the following:

• Price will need to turn the 20 MA (previous resistance) into support, currently priced $21,950. This can be considered a basic requirement in order to confirm a bear market bottom
• Price would need to trade further in the $22K to $24K range, in order to expand the accumulation zone from $20K-$22K to $20K-$24K, which the 2019 fractal would achieve
• If $17.5K is the low, then this bottom could still only be 60% complete, therefore there remains another month or so prior to a break-out. Expect low volume & consolidation
• The re-accumulation zone would be around $28.5K to $31.5K, where price previously consolidated after initial capitulation and trading volume is present (similar to 2019)
• The target based on the 3 Day chart would be the 200 MA, currently priced at $41.4K, although this continues to decline, so based on trajectory probably around ~$40K
• Further rejection from $24K levels shouldn't be considered a bearish lower high, nor failure for price to move higher, but simply part of a bottom forming process

Based on this fractal, there are notable differences to this bear market than the previous one that I'll quickly outline:

• The capitulation volume wasn't condensed to a 3 week period like 2019, but instead "spread out" over a month long period
• Due to the two-stage capitulation, as opposed to a single event capitulation, the bull trap arrived at a considerably higher price
• Price did manage to briefly reclaim the 20 MA, as opposed to being swiftly rejected, highlighting slightly higher buying pressure

As referenced in this title, this should be considered a "tutorial" (as an example) for how Bitcoin can form a bottom, as opposed to outright prediction of future price movements. While I do believe the low is likely in, it's not based on the current market structure nor referenced fractal, but instead alternative metrics. With price action now catching up with original analysis that the low is in, based on the previous bear market bottom, a break-out above $25K in the very near future (coming days) remains unlikely, with instead further consolidation in the accumulation zone as more likely in order to form a rounding bottom.

As referenced in this article, the 50 Week MA is due to cross the 100 Week MA within a couple of weeks based on their current trajectories to form a "bearish cross-over". As stated:

While in theory the upcoming bearish cross would imply strengthening of bearish momentum, the indicator has a perfect record of trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market

A few things to note with this bearish cross-over that's looking unavoidable in approximately 2-3 weeks:

• The so-called bearish cross-over has never happened with price below the 200 Week MA, signalling further weakness in price than previous cross-overs
• This has only happened twice before (2015 & 2019), so could easily be considered to have co-incidentally reversed price as opposed to being an established pattern
• This analysis isn't so different than the Pi Cycle bottom indicator that additionally uses bearish MA cross-overs to confirm market bottoms (ie a combination of price & time)

What are your thoughts about this bearish cross-over? Does it signify that Bitcoin has endured it's bear market for long enough in both time & price in order for a recovery, or will we still see further downside?

Bearish crossovers dated April 2015 and February 2019 proved to be contrary indicators – those that tell you to bet against the herd.

Personally I'm inclined to think it will further help to confirm a market low, given other indicators have already signalled a low in the market recently. On it's own, it otherwise doesn't amount to much imo.