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1161  Economy / Gambling / Re: House edges compound - Why people always seem to lose at dice on: July 09, 2015, 03:36:21 PM
House edges have a much greater impact than you can imagine.

Assume you start with 1 BTC, with the final aim of 1024 BTC.

With a house edge of 1%, you have a 0.0966% chance if you try to do a direct 1024x bet.
On the other hand, if you try doubling your money 10 times to reach there, you get a (0.495)^10 = 0.0883% chance of reaching 1024 BTC.

While in the first case, the expected value is 0.99 BTC, in the second case though, it is around 0.9 BTC. Effectively, in the second case, the house edge is actually 10%, even though your start amount and target amount are the same.

In general, the average amount you expect to win (expected value) after a number of bets will be original amount * (1 - house edge)^number of bets

What am I getting at with this?

If you're gambling with the aim of earning money, set a fixed threshold and aim to get there in a single bet of all your funds.

Admittedly betting it all on one go, with a low chance to win is not fun...

sounds reasonable, you did a good calculation actually, IMO you are right, what's why people lost more, cos it is compound, like 1.01 bet with allin funds, the profits after compound bet is huge.

1162  Economy / Gambling / Re: Signup Bonuses on: July 09, 2015, 02:07:28 PM
If you deposit enough to survive some unlucky streak, then your bonus is your best friend, so better deposit 1 btc and "rollover" your bonus Smiley

lol, deposit 1 btc and get 1 btc bonus, and then it is still easily busted, unless deposit more, but depositing more bitcoins may mean that losing more bitcoins and still can't withdraw.

IMO casino bonus is a bait and it is bonus for casinos, not for us actually. That's why most of people can't complete the high rollover and bust.
1163  Economy / Gambling / Re: provably fair is new industry standard? on: July 09, 2015, 01:51:38 PM
Well, it's basically just called edge. More edge means less fairness.

At this point, they'll lure you in with provably fair because that's what's trending at the moment (and apparently it's probably making them stacks of bitcoin).

It will be a new standard, but if someone comes up with a much more clever scheme, it will disappear.

Is it only me that noticed that this guy doesn't know what is provably fair system is? What edge is he talking about, less fairness? Wasn't provably system designed to show fairness?

What scheme are you talking about?

that guy isn't understanding this IMO, he just wanted add his post account and spam useless posts, cos he talked about off-topic thing, that's why you can understand his ideas.

AFAIK, more edge doesn't mean less fairness, it just means casinos can earn more from us, not about unfair, so if players think the edge is high, they don't play, that's very simple.
1164  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 09, 2015, 01:06:26 PM


Andy Murray v Roger Federer   11/10


Novak Djokovic v Richard Gasquet  12/1

Thats my picks for bets tomorrow, gasquet would probably win 2 out of 10 so odds are good enough for me.  Murray fed could go either way.

I think Murray and Djokovic will win tomorrow and I have bet 2.5btc on djokovic with 1.07 odds, high enough. But I won't bet on murray or federer cos this match is too difficult to guess, let's see who has better form tomorrow.

About today's match, I bet 2.5btc on serena williams, hope she will beat maria with 2-0. GL guys who bet on Serena Williams.
1165  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 09, 2015, 02:57:00 AM
sadly Wawrinka lost it was a good match even most of us lost money  Grin
both players fought till the end but Gasquet snapped the match , maybe we will recover losses in the semi final
tomorrow we have a great match between Williams and Sharapova , Williams has X1.17 odds now maybe tomorrow this will raise


yes, i lost 2.5btc on wawinka, I didn't wanna bet cos I thought wawrinka would lose and it happened, but the odds was good, 1.46, so I bet heavy on him, IMO wawrinka is very good at clay, but not grass, he can beat djokovic and federer on clay surface, wow next time I won't bet on wawrinka on other surfaces when he plays against good players.

and tonight betting on serena williams will be a right and good choice, she had good performance against sharapova, 17W-2L.  Grin  She should win the match tonight and I hope i can get my some coins back.
1166  Economy / Gambling / Re: Signup Bonuses on: July 09, 2015, 02:33:22 AM
Do signup bonuses hurt or help you guys?  It has always hurt me.  Cry  Two or three different times at different casinos I won a fair amount of money and wanted to cash out but most do not allow you to cash out minus the bonus.  So basically they have always only hurt me rather than me benefit from them.

What are some of your experiences?

35X-50X rollover for first deposit bonus is a bait, it is used for eating all of your deposits, AFAIK, only a few people can complete this ridiculous high rollover actually.

i only use no deposit bonus and I have redeemed some money from this kind of bonus from some casinos, quite good cos it is funny and happy when I pass the rollover. if i lost it, i don't lose money of my pocket.
1167  Economy / Gambling / Re: Bitcoin Beamer 2015 WSOP World Series of Poker Sponsorship‏ on: July 08, 2015, 05:07:03 PM
Thanks Fellas! I'm going to take it easy today so this horse can rest up. Today we have a break and I play tomorrow. So its gonna be a massage and spa day to calm the nerves for Day 2. The online site is not fully updated as after day 1 there is only about 3,500 players remaining. If any of you are close to Vegas, feel free to come by and be my cheering section. I brought some extra shirts just in case. I can use all the good mojo that I can get! Guys, this really might happen and could be HUGE for all of us!! Smiley

Could u show us your T-shirt? Wow congrats dude, 61th place is good cos there are thousands of players there. I am sorry I didn't have any btc one week ago, so I couldn't donate 1 btc to you, if you goes to the final table, those people who helped you to gather the fund will be fucking rich in the future, haha.
1168  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 08, 2015, 05:02:14 PM
Bad luck for me  Cry
http://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=12UHZqqQWkJ7RMEk6Jp4GX79sUj5buS7sD

I thought wawrinka could win the first set easily.

oh sorry for your parlay mate , this match is hard to predice even Wawrinka is favor
maybe you should have placed a parlay on the other three matches , the first two were easy wins and Djokovic one gonna to be easy too ( I hope so unlike LFC  Grin )
Wawrinka now won the 2nd set and the match is just getting more exciting , I hope Wawrinka will win it so my results would be just perfect in Wimbledon  Smiley


it is very difficult to bet on set, everything is possible, I have lost on set betting in French open 2015. Andy murray leaded with 3-0, and I bet heavy on murray won that set with odds 1.01, but he lost the set to Fererer, goddamn it so I lost lots of money on set betting, although it looked like Murray should have won that set cos he leaded with the score of 3-0.

Other example is wawrinka lost the first set, another example is that djokovic lost first and second sets to anderson, so we had better avoid to bet the result of set.

Only betting on money line, don't bet on handicap.
1169  Economy / Gambling / Re: Is this is the best casino? on: July 08, 2015, 02:38:00 PM
This is a pretty smart way to spam your ref link by not directly posting it but rather having it on your signature space, congratulations. As far as the casino goes, no its not the best but its not the worst either, i mean its kind of hard to decide whether something is the best, i prefer talking about favorites

Yes, that's what I wanna say, although there are some complaints on bitcasino's OP said this casino is a scam, I still think it is a decent one, as far as I know, this kind of OP won't get many referrals cos I have worn Fortunejack's signature for over 2 months but get a few referrals, and most of the never gamble there after the registration.
1170  Economy / Gambling / Re: How do you guys win these gambling sites on: July 08, 2015, 02:20:16 PM
I have earned over 8000 USD from many gambling sites, first you need to choose right games(low house edge games), I have earned most of money from dice site, with 1% house edge. And about 2 btc from blackjack, which has 0.4% house edge, yeah, it means if you have good blackjack strategy and good luck, you can beat casinos.

Additionally, I have earned decent money from sports betting, you need to analyze the match and bet, could win a lot, cos games are random, but sports are not random, better teams/players always win, but unexpected results may eat our money. Angry Sad

If you are telling the truth, then you are lucky or your analysis of sports betting is very good.
There may be ways to analyse sports betting but you won't win all your games.

There are many people have earned a lot from dice sites cos dice has only 1% house edge, and dice has low variance too, I avoid to play slots cos slots have terrible expected return, which means very high house edges, so we may get lucky when we play dice, of course dice is a lucky game, no strategy, only lucky. But if I gamble on slots, I am pretty sure I wouldn't hit any jackpot or big winnings because the house edge is sick high, casinos can eat players' money easily if they are addicted to play slots.

About sports betting, I am up to 3.5btc profits and most of my profits come from tennis, although the odds of tennis are very low to good players, we can still earn lots of money because betting on them is very safe and the profit is very easy.
1171  Economy / Gambling / Re: How do you guys win these gambling sites on: July 08, 2015, 01:41:09 PM
I have earned over 8000 USD from many gambling sites, first you need to choose right games(low house edge games), I have earned most of money from dice site, with 1% house edge. And about 2 btc from blackjack, which has 0.4% house edge, yeah, it means if you have good blackjack strategy and good luck, you can beat casinos.

Additionally, I have earned decent money from sports betting, you need to analyze the match and bet, could win a lot, cos games are random, but sports are not random, better teams/players always win, but unexpected results may eat our money. Angry Sad
1172  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiBet Bitcoin Casino - Provably Fair - Bonuses - Play Roulette, Blackjack on: July 08, 2015, 01:17:43 PM
I can't find the house edge of any slot game?
where do i find those?

You can find it on satoshibet's tumblr's blog, I found it, and I remember the house edge is 7%, it means that the expect return is 93%, and I have tested the slots with no deposit bonus, and this figure should accurate, I calculated the stats of my real tests are about 5%-10%, so 7% is reasonable.
1173  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 08, 2015, 01:06:18 PM
Heres my picks for bets today, these are the best value bets imo not the favs.


N. Djokovic
M. Cilic      9/1
      
S. Wawrinka
R. Gasquet         not much value betting either way
   
A. Murray
Pospisil          24/1
      
R. Federer     1/6 fed think he wins 9 out of 10 times

G. Simon
      

Wow, you are very brave, bet on cilic and pospisil? IMO big 4 will win easily, and no 3-2 in any match, that's will be simpla 3-0 or 3-1.

My score prediction: Murray 3-0 Pospisil,  Djokovic 3-1 cilic, Federer 3-1 Simon, Wawinka 3-1 Gasquet. And i have placed 2500 mbtc bet on murray with 1.05 odds, and Wawrinka with 1.46 odds, IMO wawrinka will give me big profits tonight, let's see, but the match is delayed cos of rain, damn it..
1174  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 07, 2015, 05:57:24 PM

I placed the bet on DirectBet early in this morning the odds was x1.27
but now in Direct bet the odds is X1.3 for Williams and the odds for her to win 2-0 is X1.95
I agree with you about Sharapova , but I didn't bet on her cause as I said I couldn't find a helpful history about the players and also the odds was low ( I can't remember exactly but it was like X1.1)


Actually I never bet on Directbet cos their odds are very terrible, they have the lowest odds, so I prefer higher odds sportsbooks.

I was nervous when serena williams lost her first set, I thought my 2500mbtc was lost cos of her, but yes, it is female tennis, everything is possible and unexpected, and she came back with strong winners and serves, and has won 2nd and 3rd sets, what an amazing match, I enjoyed it very much tonight.

https://sports.betcoin.ag/ShareTicket/?ticketid=35495

I got 750mbtc profit from that match, and my bankroll is 9300mbtc now, damn cool, I am up to 6000mbtc in this wimbledon, and I turned my lost to winnings now, from down to 2.5btc on sports betting to totally up to 3.5btc, I love wimbledon, I love Grand Slam, where the secure bets and easy profits we can get.  Grin Grin
1175  Economy / Gambling / Re: #1 RATINGS of SPORTSBOOKS. Please post any payout delays. Input wanted from all. on: July 07, 2015, 05:51:13 PM
betcoin.ag is a peace of sh*t. Inconvenient site, pages are loading for ages, support don't answer my ticket for a day, can't withdraw my money for 2 days for now.
Won't bet there anymore.

Page loading is normal here, maybe your internet sucks.

Have they paid you yet? It is 5 days after your post. IMO they paid you already. Yes. They have bad support, but you should chat them in the chatting box or chatting room, ticket is slow actually. So I think you should not hope for those tickets cos their speed of answering the tickets is very slow, I prefer talking with them online, they have 24 hours online support now, I am satisfied with their online support actually.
1176  Economy / Gambling / Re: DaDice.com - Next Gen Social Gambling Dice Experience | Progressive Jackpot on: July 07, 2015, 04:03:11 PM
I had a question in mind, how many accounts can you level up as I have seen people with 5-10 accounts with 20+ level( 5k faucet).

I think multiple accounts are allowed as far as you are not "faucet farming" or any other activity they may not like, in worst case scenario,  you might lose all of your accounts at once. So steer clear of abusing and you will be fine.
Yeah just wanted to know where the line is drawn between faucet playing and farming. I think this is something to be included in the FAQ or something, I mean I even know some people there having multiple level 50 accounts(even saw a guy offering to sell one on bcttalk for 0.1).

Well, there is a line drawn to distinguish faucet playing and faucet abuse (farming). Our system is detecting multiple account from the same IP, accounts that are setup to farm etc. According to our findings and the seriousness of abuse, the faucet timer is increased from 5 minutes up to a maximum 30 minutes. In addition certain accounts are getting suspended, if we can prove that farming was indeed the case.

5 minutes to 30 minutes? Do you think it is too long for normal players like me? I seldom redeemed the faucet but I play with faucet, I don't farm other accounts or use many accounts to increase the faucet money.
1177  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Over 200.000 transactions per day in the history of Bitcoin on: July 07, 2015, 03:50:15 PM
Well, only 200k? I even thought it should be over a million per day, but I over estimated the fact of btc transaction, but it means btc could be more potential, IMO 200k transactions per day mean about 5k-10k people use bitcoin daily, it is only a few compared to any fiat money. Bitcoin will be ridiculous expensive in the future if more than 1 million users use it daily.
1178  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: the reason why Satoshi didnt use his 500k-1Million Bitcoins on: July 07, 2015, 03:46:29 PM
Because if he had used his huge stash of bitcoin, it would look like a huge premine (around 2 and 3% mined by him, the dev)
Also, the block rewards are supposed to distribute the bitcoin, and not centralize all the bitcoin mined in 1 person hands.

Therefore, i think Satoshi prefered to sacrifice those premined coins for the sake of a better distribution of coins.

satoshi only wanted to design it and he didn't expect earn huge amount of money from bitcoin, so he was unhappy to see so many people are speculating bitcoin, so that's why he never sold any of his bitcoin.

The other reason may be satoshi is dead, or CIA/FBI wants him, so he has to keep anonymous, there are so many scam cases and money laundry cases of bitcoin, I am pretty sure FBI will arrest him if he is not anon.
1179  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 07, 2015, 03:32:15 PM
today there is an easy match for Sirina Williams she is playing against Azarenka , and Sirina has a great history against Azarenka and she is doing great these days.
also Sharapova has a match against Vandeweghe , I was thinking about a parlay for these matches but I couldn't find any details about the history between Sharapova and Vandeweghe maybe the haven't played against each other yet
so I will just bet on Sirina today

I know Serena Williams has a good record against Azarenka but it might be a good idea to bet on over games.
I am sure Azarenka would win at least a set.

yes maybe , Azarenka is really a good player but Williams is the beast of women these days
I have placed the bet on Williams to win with X1.27 odds which is really good in my opinion , so no need to make more risky bets
also it seems that Sharapova is facing a really good opponent . it's 1-1 now but Sharapova is very close to win the match

wow, where did you place the bet? Only 1.27 sucks, I bet 2500mbtc on Serena Williams and the odds was 1.3, after I placed the bet, the odds was increased to 1.32, damn, I should place later so I could get higher odds. I wish I will win the bet, I think Serena Williams will surely win the match cos she is NO.1, she dominates WTA world ranking NO.1 for a long time. She is the one of the best players in the WTA history

Maria Sharapova is my goddess and she has won the third set, the result is expected, so many people earned the profits from her, nice. Grin
1180  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Discussion about Wimbledon 2015 on: July 07, 2015, 01:46:34 PM
I hope Anderson has a good rest & powers past Djokovic in that 5th set. I think Anderson needed that rest as Djokovic had just won 2 sets in a row. If the 5th set was played yesterday I think Djokovic would have just won it easily. Anderson will be so much more dangerous after a good rest.

I want Murray to win Wimbledon this year so it'd be a massive positive for his chances if Djokovic gets knocked out. The thing is Djokovic never knows when he's beaten & unfortunately I think he'll find a way to win that 5th set.

haha, i wanna murray win too, but Djokovic beat anderson in 5th set, but djokovic's form is bad, at least murray could beat him if djokovic still has yesterday's form against anderson, there is no doubt that murray or federer will defeat yesterday's djokovic easily.
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