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101  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2022/2023 on: June 27, 2022, 03:15:13 PM
I still have doubts about Manchester United for next season in the EPL, many predict that Manchester United will fail miserably with their new manager, Erik ten Hag. The reason is, Manchester United has lost several top players such as Paul Pogba, Nemanja Matic, Juan Mata, and Jesse Lingard.
and it is reported that until now Manchester United has not got a new player, it looks like Manchester United will be a topic that will continue to be discussed next season.

The big problem for Man United is that they're not in the Champions League, which means they may struggle to attract top name players. I do suspect a part of the reason they haven't signed anyone is because they think they're a bigger club than they actually are, and the players they've been going after simply aren't interested. Man U may have to start looking at players who are merely very good, rather than players who are world class.
102  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: June 27, 2022, 03:12:12 PM
Not sure if Ferrari should be better than Redbull in Silverstone.

We will have high-speed turns, and Ferrari is the best car for low-speed turns, we will see.

Ferrari may end up being faster, but of course it means nothing if they can't finish the race. Reliability has to be the main concern at the moment, it's something they need to fix very quickly, or else the season is already over.


Mercedes are newly recovering and the latest change in the regulation would take some time for Mercedes to start being able to compete with the biggest teams

The change doesn't necessarily mean Mercedes will be able to compete. If Red Bull don't have a problem, which they say they don't, then they won't have to adjust their car at all... so the Merc (which will have to be adjusted) will get slower relative to the fastest team. We'll have to see which teams need to adjust their cars, and by how much.
103  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: June 27, 2022, 03:03:31 PM
Arteta already has a good experience with Arsenal and last season did well despite failing to make it to the champions league, but they have evaluated everything Gabriel Jesus and Rafinha will be brought to Arsenal to strengthen their attacking line they are sure that next season will be tough competition but Arsenal can overcome it all from its previous slump.

Gabriel Jesus is a great purchase. If they get Raphinha, and Lisandro Martinez who they've also made a bid for today, then it will be a solid transfer window for them, and I'd expect them to really push for that Champions League spot next season. Don't know what the likelihood is of them getting all three, as obviously other clubs are interested too, but Gabriel Jesus is certainly a great start.
104  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: June 27, 2022, 01:56:04 PM
Djokovic lost his serve in both first two sets, but eventually will win straight sets, as it now seems

No, Djokovic has just lost the second set. He's looking a bit shaky. Nevertheless, he does often lose a set or even two, but win anyway. Even at one set all it would be a big shock to see him lose this match. Even if he goes 2-1 down in sets, you'd still expect to see him win it in five.

Having said all that, there are a few signs in the second set stats that Djokovic is some way below his best. 0 aces. 58% of first serves in. Forehand unforced errors is quite high, too, at 7.
105  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Europe's independence requires breaking away from Oil and Gas on: June 26, 2022, 04:19:13 PM
The fact that prices of oil are sky rocketing and volatile should push them to look for alternatives

Yes. The big question is will alternatives be a) gas from a different supplier, or b) a different source of energy.

Short-term the answer will be a different supplier, as that's the only immediate fix. But I remain hopeful that this will add extra impetus to the move to renewables... after all, if you're importing gas and oil from somewhere else, then you're always dependent on that somewhere else being reliable, not vastly inflating their prices, not starting a psychotic sanction-inducing genocidal rampage across Europe, etc. The only way to be self-sufficient for a lot of countries is renewables.

If it does happen, and renewables become more of a focus, then it's a bit of an indictment of society that it will be $$$ that have triggered the shift rather than, you know, a desire to save the planet. But it seems that's always the way.
106  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] Shutting down the Global Economy to fight covid a good idea? on: June 25, 2022, 06:19:19 PM
the euthanization program [...] The good-old-boys club of eugenicists with seats on the boards of directors

One thing I've never really understood with this particular insane conspiracy theory is just why the people who are already in control would want to reduce the number of ordinary people they can exploit. It's like a pharaoh or a plantation owner complaining that he has too many slaves.

I won't deny that much of the world (and certainly my own country) is ruled by an effectively closed club of people, who exploit the remainder of the population... but why would they want fewer people to exploit? If your source of wealth is the people you exploit, why would you want to diminish that? The ruler of a large kingdom is more important and powerful than the ruler of a small kingdom.
diminishing returns, easier to control a smaller population than unruly masses. of course smaller and masses are subjective.

Well, thanks for responding. I've asked this question many times over the last few years, and I think this is the first time anyone has tried to answer it.
But I don't agree. There are plenty of countries with large populations, where the elites are in absolute control, with no threat to them whatsoever from these large populations. You can take China as an example, or the US, even Russia. The people at the top exploit everyone else, and have done for a very long time. The entire system, everywhere, whether capitalism or (nominal) communism or the Chinese special mixture of the two, or anything else... is set up to benefit these people. And levels of inequality in most places are increasing all the time. The system is working as intended, and those at the top are reaping the rewards. If the masses are controlled perfectly, or as perfectly as necessary, then the people at the top have zero incentive to change anything, as this would worsen their own position.
107  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: June 24, 2022, 01:54:55 PM
I wonder would Djokovic do anything differently if he could go back to the start of the year?
probably not.

No, I certainly don't think he'd get vaccinated. One thing he might change is just not flying out to Australia if he knew what a debacle that would turn out to be.

I think for Djokovic the vaccination question isn't an isolated issue, it's tied in with his whole health thing. I remember when he was younger he was a good player, but a bit flaky and not quite as good as the very best. Then he completely overhauled his diet and physical regime, removing gluten etc., and it really transformed him and turned him into the superman we've seen over the last decade. I'm sure he sees vaccination as going against that, introducing pollutants into his carefully-maintained body, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks that having the vaccine would weaken his game. Chances of him getting vaccinated, even to compete in the US Open, have to be close to zero.
108  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Europe's independence requires breaking away from Oil and Gas on: June 24, 2022, 01:47:30 PM
My personal take is that Europe should be investing "whatever it takes" to make the Tokamaks work. Curiously enough, the original concept comes from Russian scientists.

Although the joke is that fusion is always 10 years away, and never gets any closer, there has been quite a lot of progress in this area recently. I'd definitely agree that commercial fusion power would indeed solve a lot of problems... however, the climate crisis is rapidly becoming a climate emergency, and there may not be time for this approach to reach fruition. It may be better to focus on renewables in the short-term, whilst fusion research continues with the aim of this being more of a medium-term solution.

I do think the climate question is changing from "what can we do to solve this?" to "what can we do to solve this right now?"

Of course, the big question is whether governments will act before it's too late. I think we probably know the answer. It's quite depressing to see oil and gas exploration continuing as it is, without even seeming to slow down.
109  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Trump run again...and win?? on: June 24, 2022, 12:43:21 PM
Was Trump (or any other country for that matter) incorrect in their pro-lockdown presumption? Maybe not. But after a year, that presumption no longer exists. We knew a lot more.
I'd argue (and did at the time) that most countries were too late in locking down. Earlier, stricter lockdowns would likely have been shorter in duration, and cost fewer lives. But this pattern is reflected around the world, and says nothing particular about Trump. Politicians tend to be reactive rather than proactive with these things - if a precautionary action is going to cause economic damage, they won't act until it's absolutely necessary (and therefore too late).


The 2 weeks to stop the spread turned into 30 days which morphed into over a year of restrictions. The difference being, Trump actively attempting to undo the damage that he had mostly caused while the pro-lockdown groups in liberal states did everything they could to continue lockdowns.
Politicians have had to make a trade-off between economic damage and saving lives. Shorter lockdowns would have caused less economic damage, but cost more lives. I don't think we can separate the two and view the economic situation in isolation... lockdowns happened in order to save lives, and not for an economic reason. You can't say we should have opened up earlier, as if that would not have had consequences.


Trump will run again and he will win because he is a narcissistic man child. [...] Imaging Trump vs. Biden would be quite entertaining though. Two geriatrics going for round 2, incredible!
Yeah, I think Trump would win again. He certainly has his faults, but he's a fabulously skilled demagogue/agitator. Given recent events and particularly the Jan 6th stuff, he would find it extremely easy to position himself as the valiant outsider railing against the corrupt state. And yes, both Trump and Biden are really too old to be running the US from 2024, the idea of either of them being in charge up to the end of 2028 seems a bit ridiculous.


Trump's administration was politically forced into taking action while Biden embraced the FUD of the pandemic
I don't trust most politicians. I think there's a considerable gap between what a politician says they think, and what they really think. If any POTUS faced with an unpalatable choice says "I don't want to do this, but I'm being forced into it" then I'd be sceptical.


You sound more like a 10 year old
Hey, thanks, I'm actually 9yo so I'm glad I'm coming across as more sensible and mature.
110  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: June 24, 2022, 12:20:30 PM
Hopefully he can live up to being the top seed right now otherwise, Djokovic can still reclaim that this year. This is just the difference between the big 3 before, they are really psychologically though in close games and seldom we see them being upset perhaps just to other ranked but not to relatively unknown player.

I don't think Djokovic will be able to regain the number one spot this year. He's a long way back in points already, there are zero points available for Wimbledon, and there's a decent chance that Djokovic won't be able to play the US Open or other US events. Looking at the 2022 singles race, Nadal is already almost 4000 points clear of Djokovic.

Djokovic may still be the best player in the world, but the rankings won't reflect that any time soon.
111  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Trump run again...and win?? on: June 23, 2022, 07:17:13 PM
Indeed.  Biden took America from being energy independent to begging oil producers to increase production as we drain our reserves.  He took a flourishing economy and ran it into the ground with high inflation while Fed Governors resign their positions as a result of him not adhering to their warnings.  He overreacted to the flu, shutting down the economy and decimating small businesses.  There's no doubt he's the worst president of my lifetime, and he's got to already be top 5 worst presidents ever, maybe top 2.  

I don't really understand this argument. Trump ordered Covid lockdowns, and this is no problem? But Biden over-reacted to Covid and shut down the economy, which is terrible?

The other point about Biden taking a flourishing economy and then destroying it with high inflation doesn't seem logical, either. Moments in time don't exist in isolation, they're dependent on what happened before. Inflation (which is happening all around the world, not just the US) isn't a consequence of sudden simultaneous terrible leaders everywhere, rather it's a consequence of global issues such as the Ukraine war and, yes, economic issues due to Covid. It would seem implausible to think that were Trump still leader, the US would not have high inflation.


Having said this, yes, I do think Trump will run again, and has a high likelihood of victory.
112  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: June 23, 2022, 07:05:53 PM
Talking about Djokovic and grass... we were mentioning recently how FAA can be a threat on this surface, but Djokovic beat him on grass 6-2 6-1 yesterday Shocked
It was an exhibition match (at Hurlingham), but still, it starts to answer some questions about Djokovic's form and fitness going into the tournament.

And in other news on grass exhibition matches (also Hurlingham) and the form and fitness of the top players, yesterday Nadal beat Wawrinka 6-3 6-3. Wawrinka's comment after the match was "I don't know how he is feeling, it looks like normal Rafa"
113  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: June 23, 2022, 03:42:46 PM
Gabriel jesus now has a small chance to play if he continues to stay in manchester city,
Just because of Haaland? Maybe true considering Haaland's position and Jesus' position are both centre-forwards. Since Manchester City signed Haaland there have been a lot of rumors about a move for Jesus, several teams are interested in him although so far I haven't seen which team has the most chance of getting his signature. Maybe Arsenal, but maybe also Tottenham but I kind of agree if he is at Arsenal next season even though he will only play in the Europa League for competitions other than the Premier League.

whereas if he goes to arsenal of course he has guaranteed to be the main striker for arsenal because now arsenal have lost lacazette and aubameyang, so I think maybe he is closer to arsenal if he really wants more playing hours at this time.
I think so too, Jesus would have been guaranteed a place from the start and would probably be in the proposal as a striker. But I don't think he will be the only player who doesn't get competition at Arsenal as a striker, there are other names like Eddie Nketiah who in the previous season attracted quite a bit of public attention.

If Spurs keep Kane and Son, then it's difficult for Gabriel Jesus... yes he'd have more chance at Arsenal. And really the difference between Spurs and Arsenal is very small, both London teams, both at a similar level... yes Arsenal may not have Champions League next season, but if you're signing a multi-year contract, there's every chance that next year Arsenal will be in the Champions League, and Spurs won't. I don't think it will make much difference given how close the two teams are, the main concern is surely playing time and how you fit into the existing team.
114  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: June 23, 2022, 02:56:05 PM
I wonder if we're going to have an exciting season in the battle for the world championship. The start looked promising, Le Clerc seemed to be fully involved but has now retired a few times in a row and Verstappen is currently winning everything you can win. He does have a great team player with Perez, who has already let Verstappen win once. You also have to be able to handle that to play the 2nd fiddle. The battle for the World Cup seems decided: Verstappen easily becomes world champion.

Yeah, it's looking that way. It must be immensely frustrating for Leclerc, who often has the fastest single-lap qualifying car, but not the fastest full-race car, and really suffering from reliability issues. We have to bear in mind he's likely to take further engine penalties as the season progresses, too. The season is in danger of getting boring, as RB need a better second driver who is able to (and permitted to) compete. At least in the Merc era we had Hamilton and Rosberg battling between them, and then a couple of years where Vettel mounted a serious challenge. This season is shaping up to be an easy Verstappen win simply because he's the last man standing.
115  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: June 23, 2022, 02:50:26 PM
Peniston has just loss 6-3 6-3 against Draper.
He has bee able to win 2 break points (in both sets!) but has not been able to defend such advantage Sad
He played excellent games during the past weeks, if he continues at this pace we could see him in the top 100.

I have my eye on Draper, the next big hope for British men's tennis. Peniston is 26yo and unlikely to improve, although he's had a decent run recently on the grass. Draper on the other hand is 20yo and rising fast. IIRC he took a set off Djokovic at Wimbledon last year. He's had a couple of big scalps in recent weeks, too. I think he certainly has potential to be seeded for big tournaments in future (top 32), maybe higher we'll see how he progresses. I think he's a better player than Dan Evans already, although not yet a match for Norrie.
116  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2022/2023 on: June 23, 2022, 02:40:04 PM
@JollyGood I expected you to leave your predictions before the season started, but since you have not left yours I’m leaving mine. I’m expecting Manchester City to start strong because of Halland, and Liverpool will drop few points as Mane’s absence is bound to hurt them, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tottenham gave some serious competition to these two sides, and lastly if anyone else wants to make early predictions please do so.

I wouldn't be prepared to make any predictions yet, as there is no doubt a lot of transfer movement still to happen this summer. Of course we expect Man City and Liverpool to be fighting for the title, and the newly-promoted teams to face a struggle to stay in the division, but other than that it's quite difficult. I mean, Man U for example, who knows who they'll end up signing or how their team might perform? As Zlantann noted above, there is a lot of uncertainty around them at present.
117  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: June 23, 2022, 02:36:24 PM
Yes, with Sadio Mane joining Bayern Munich, maybe it will make it easier for Lewandoski to leave Bayern Munich. At least Bayern Munich will not be too insistent on retaining Lewandowski anymore because they already have a new striker whose performance is not inferior to Lewandowski. So we just have to see who will eventually relent between Bayern Munich and Barcelona, will Barcelona raise their offer or Bayern Munich who will lower the price, or maybe there is another club that managed to steal Lewandowski  Grin.
Barcelona try to bid with lower price for Robert Lewandowski and looks will not reach agreement between Bayern Munich and Barcelona for dealing Lewandowski transfer, but bad impact with one year contract left have chance Bayern Munich losing Lewandowski for next season with free transfer player. I think if get values under 40 million euro not bad decision give chance for Barcelona getting  Lewandowski after Bayern Munich got Sadio Mane from Liverpool. Barcelona fans looks worry if try with lower values actually will have new club give higher bid than Barcelona and losing chance to get Lewandowski.

A big factor here is that because he's quite old, and his contract is running out, Bayern wouldn't get much of a transfer fee, and he's on such high wages that a low transfer fee is almost irrelevant relative to wages. I would think if they can, Bayern would prefer to keep him for a year, pay the wages for a year, then let him leave on a free if he won't sign an extension. They don't lose much, and get to keep a world-class player for another year. The major issue really is if Lewandowski starts to get angry and refuse to play... but I can't see him doing that, he wouldn't do anything to upset the Bayern fans where he is such a hero.
118  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: June 23, 2022, 02:31:14 PM
it is not up to Medvedev, I do not him as serious contender on Wimbledon, even if he is allowed to play
and Djokovic played really good on exbition yesterday, stormed FAA in 15 gems, two sets
and yeah FAA is not great on grass, but odds on Djokovic are showing how he is valued to win at the moment, everything else would be a big surprise, IMO

Aliassime is actually very good on grass, it is by far his best surface. I do have to say that his loss in Hertogenbosch semi was really unexpected though. He should have won that tournament.
Other than that, he lost in 2 tie-breaks to Hurkacz and in an exhibition game to Đoković - not the worst results.

He is one of my dark horses - with his serve game he can really go far.
Just wanted to write that FAA is though opponent for anyone on grass but you beat me to the punch. On his day he can win against anybody but he also gets a bad day quite often when nothing goes his way. I don't expect him to go far just because of that off day.

I do see FAA as a genuine contender, along with Berrettini and Alcaraz. The other obvious two being Djokovic and Nadal... unfortunately these five together make up the top five favourites in betting odds!
TBH I'd be tempted to see how they play in the first round before looking to back an outright tournament winner... maybe Djokovic is still a bit rusty, and maybe Nadal after his treatment is close to 100% fit, in which case the odds on Nadal as winner would still look quite favourable.
119  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Trump run again...and win?? on: June 23, 2022, 02:10:51 PM
Most likely in 2024 if Trump intends to run again as a presidential candidate he will be elected. Because even though in the Trump administration many absurd things have happened, they are not as bad as in the Biden administration. The Biden administration was terrible and I have never seen an American president this bad in my life.

Really, no-one has been as bad as Biden? What about the president who wanted to cure Covid by getting people to inject themselves with disinfectant and expose their internal organs to the healing powers of sunshine? I forget which president it was who recommended this stuff, but it wasn't that long ago. Must have been Obama or Clinton or some other crazed Democrat, amirite?
120  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: June 22, 2022, 03:05:54 PM
The FIA gave them a favor.  Lol.  Didn't the FIA change some regulation with the height of the cars from the ground to help Mercedes with their problems with porpoising citing 'safety concerns'?  I think changing the rules in the middle of the season could set a bad precedent for the sport.  If they start doing it now, they could do it again and again as the season progresses.

I think that's a bit harsh on the FIA, it's not quite accurate, and it may not be the outcome you anticipate.

Wolff was definitely being a bit ridiculous by claiming it's just a safety concern and so needs to be changed, it's true that certain drivers are experiencing discomfort... but it's equally true that this is because of the way they've designed the car. Other designs (e.g. Red Bull) don't have the problem. So Merc should raise their ride height to ensure their drivers are safe, and other teams can do as they like.

However... and it's a big however... the FIA directive is not to raise ride height, but to reduce oscillation of the cars below a certain permitted limit. What this means is that Merc will have to raise their car... and if Red Bull are genuinely unaffected, they can leave their car as is, completely unchanged. The point being that if Red Bull do raise their car, they will be doing so to comply with the regulation, which means they do have the bouncing issue and are just pretending they don't.

So we'll see. Merc may have been pushing for this, but it's not quite the outcome they wanted, it may end up benefitting them, or it may not, I don't think we know yet. Merc could end up looking ridiculous by pushing for a rule that means they have to raise their own car, and no-one else does!

And the FIA certainly aren't doing them a favour... if you recall, the FIA don't like Mercedes, as was evident in the way they ignored their own rules to ensure Verstappen was given the championship last season!
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