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321  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: May 03, 2022, 01:47:04 PM
Osaka though and Sakkari is out already.

This is what I was talking about the other day, about how women's tennis is so unpredictable. In Madrid, we are now through to the last 16... so in theory most matches should be a player seeded 1-8 vs a player seeded 9-16... except out of the top 8 seeds, only the #8 seed is left, everyone else got knocked out already (alright, Swiatek withdrew before the tournament started, but that's the exception). There's no-one (other than Swiatek) that I'd feel confident betting on.

To be honest, that's one reason I usually stay away from the women's side, because as you have said it's unpredictable.

I look at who beat Osaka and she is Toribes Tormo, maybe she has the advantage of the weather. Nevertheless it is still an upset because I expect Osaka to at least move into the next round and chances are, if she is going to bow out of the tournament, it should be against rank opponent.
I don't really consider those surprises. Don't get me wrong if I knew underdogs would win I would made a bet on them and cash out heaps of money but both those matches were very suspect to me so I skipped them.

Sakari has terible H2H with Kasatkina, they played 4 times and she lost all 4 matches. Something in the Kasatkina game gives her big problems.
Osaka actually lost last clay encounter against Toribes Tormo with 6:0 6:3 and this match was played in her home country, red flag for me.
Colins and Muguruza were bigger surprises for me but again clay is not Muguruza favorite surface, very strange for Spanish players who probably grew up on it and Colins lost to Andrescu. Andrescu is just outside top 100 at the moment but I remember her from some past matched and she is worth much more. Not really sure what happened to her so that she is so low down the ranking.

For me the surprise od the tournament so far, one that killed my otherwise winning ticket, was Sonego. He lost against WC player who can barely stand on clay judging on the past results. And to make it worse he lost in straight sets.

Sakkari was a bit of a surprise for me, I wasn't aware of her terrible H2H against her opponent. Quite a few of the other seed defeats aren't that surprising, but I think the fact that it's not surprising to see so many go out early does demonstrate my point that women's tennis is less predictable, in Madrid we reached the last 16 and the top seed left in the draw was #8... if that happened on the men's side it would be astonishing, on the women's side, not particularly.
322  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: May 03, 2022, 10:15:40 AM
Looking at Leeds United remaining games, they have Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford. I don’t see them picking up to 6points from the 12 available points. Because they’re definitely going to lose to Arsenal and Chelsea. Everton are performing well currently and they have easier fixtures compared to Leeds United, so i am sure they will leave the relegation zone if they maintain their form. While Burnley have won 3 of their last 4 games. It shows how prepared they are in this relegation battle. They also have easier fixtures except against Tottenham. Leeds looks unlucky because they have the London teams to play and I’m not sure they’ll get anything from those games, which will give their fellow competitors a chance to stay up.

That Everton win against Chelsea really surprised me, it looked like they were favourites for relegation, but now it's wide open again. I'd agree that probably Leeds look most likely to take the third relegation spot, not least because their goal difference is so much worse than Everton's or Burnley's - if Everton or Burnley finish on the same points as Leeds, then they are safe. Leeds know they need to finish at least one point higher.
323  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: May 01, 2022, 10:25:32 PM
Osaka though and Sakkari is out already.

This is what I was talking about the other day, about how women's tennis is so unpredictable. In Madrid, we are now through to the last 16... so in theory most matches should be a player seeded 1-8 vs a player seeded 9-16... except out of the top 8 seeds, only the #8 seed is left, everyone else got knocked out already (alright, Swiatek withdrew before the tournament started, but that's the exception). There's no-one (other than Swiatek) that I'd feel confident betting on.
324  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Fluid gender garbage. on: May 01, 2022, 10:16:28 PM
I think it is probably more true that social media companies have the ability to cause people to think in certain ways. During covid early days, there was a lot of propaganda surrounding covid, and social media was censoring posts that did not fit a particular narrative.

Many social media companies are trying to do similar things regarding gender, however, what they are pushing is just too ridiculous for most reasonable people to accept.

It's not social media companies that cause people to think in certain ways; they're simply the delivery mechanism. But obviously social media can be exploited by people/companies/nations to cause people to think in certain ways.

Facebook/Twitter etc don't have an incentive to promote any particular narrative, other than 'Facebook/Twitter is great'. Censoring tends to occur when social media companies decide that they need to do something because if they don't, it will reflect badly on them, and they could get into legal trouble or (worse) lose revenue. Censoring Trump (which is I think what you're alluding to) was done entirely out of self-interest, I don't imagine they give a f*ck about Rep/Dem etc, they're interested only in themselves as a company and how their actions or inaction affect their profits.

As regards Covid, they probably don't want to be seen to be promoting the view that people should be injecting themselves with bleach or exposing their internal organs to the healing power of sunshine. That could reflect kind of badly on them, if people start dying. I don't think they'd particularly care about people dying, but they'd certainly care about being associated with it (or being seen as causing it).

As regards gender, if social media companies appear to be pushing anything, then I'd suspect again it's out of self-interest, and not wanting to be accused of being anti- anything.

It's all self-interest, nothing more sinister than that.
325  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: May 01, 2022, 05:25:38 PM
Superb performance from Raducanu today, again I watched the whole match and she was playing at the same level she was when she won the US Open last summer. She was dominant from start to finish, playing almost flawless tennis at times, and drawing mistakes from her opponent. This is certainly the best she has played this year... and the draw has really opened up on her side now, it's a great opportunity for her to go deep into the tournament, if it goes according to seeding, she should reach the semis with a match up against Sakkari in a repeat of the US Open semi.
326  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: April 29, 2022, 07:44:50 PM
Raducanu today "suffered" on the First set but After was able to make a great second set.

Yes, I watched the whole match - because I'm British, and want Raducanu to win every time.  Grin

First set was quite tight, both players doing okay but not great. The whole match really swung on the game where Martincova was a break up, and serving for the set at 5-3. She had two set points, but Raducanu took the game with a break back for 5-4. After that it went to a tie-break which was fairly one-sided.

And after losing the first set in that way, Martincova just collapsed. She looked close to tears through a lot of the second set, and was spraying shots out of the court all over the place... Raducanu just basically had to keep getting the ball back over the net and wait for her opponent to make a wild error... the 6-0 scoreline in that second set was an accurate reflection of how one-sided it was.
327  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: April 29, 2022, 02:12:04 PM
Just watched Dalien against Gasquet match, this was my first time watching Dalien and probably my last. Very annoying player without any shots and screaming like a little girl even on easy ground strokes. I had some money on him and after set 1 even I cheered Gasquet to win Smiley

Madrid started for girls today so some good matches there but I did not have time to make any bets.




I find that the women's matches are generally tougher to predict. The top few players are closer to those below them, there isn't the gulf that we've been used to seeing on the men's side, where Djok/Fed/Nadal sweep all before them. Excepting Swiatek, I suppose, who's close to a guaranteed win, everyone else seems vulnerable. We've had a few top seeds go out already.
328  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Fluid gender garbage. on: April 29, 2022, 01:55:05 PM
In 100 years, I could imagine a society where young people are expected to find a gender identity in the same way as they find other aspects of themselves, and maybe their gender identity changes a few times over their lives. Imagining such a society doesn't bother me at all. I think it's totally workable ...
Sure but it's a lot simpler to go in the other direction: Instead of 86/whatever genders, just one.

Hello, Komrade.

Ideally there would be no gender identities, because it would all be natural and wouldn't even need to be discussed. But for so long as discrimination persists, labelling of some sort is required.

Speaking of which, it's kinda snitch to have you back on the forum, hope you stick around.
329  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: April 29, 2022, 01:42:47 PM
I believe United's management still wants to keep Ronaldo. His performance may have decreased, but Ronaldo gave extraordinary encouragement to other players not to give up easily.
but all will also return to Ronaldo's decision. but I don't think Ronaldo will leave United in his current state

I suppose there's also the question, given that his performance over 90 minutes is definitely not what it used to be... which teams would want him and could afford to pay his huge wages?
Teams at the very top, who are fighting for the Champions League, would likely not want him as although he's still very good, he's probably not good enough given the financial outlay.
Conversely, he could get huge wages by going to a lesser team somewhere rich, USA maybe or the East... but that would probably not satisfy his desire for top-level football.
Man U may be the best it gets... good but not at the very top, able to pay the wages, and where he's worshipped as a hero.
330  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Politics changes human mindset on: April 29, 2022, 01:33:34 PM
t considers the interest of its citizens while the negative example of politics Russia leader who do not consider the interest of its citizens mainly for self interest to start a war that will at the end affects its citizens..

This is why limited government and democracy is important. If you believe humans are inherently corrupt, limit their scope and curtail their political influence. Democracy doesn't actually exist in Russia so limited governance doesn't apply.

It's certainly why democracy is important. I'd disagree that it means governments should be limited. In general, if we are talking about capitalist democracies, then the government needs to set the limits on capitalism to prevent it becoming exploitative. A limited government would mean more monopolies, cartels, anti-competitive practices, etc. I think the government needs to be of sufficient size to manage the process capably. The key point is that the government should not become corrupt, and needs to be accountable if it swings too far (either to the right or to the left) - through the democratic process.
331  Economy / Economics / Re: Does anyone care about the environment? on: April 29, 2022, 01:28:19 PM
The environmental impact of PoW as a process, particularly with bitcoin, will certainly impact the mainstream adoption of crypto... we need look no further than Tesla suspending bitcoin as a purchase method due to the energy expenditure of PoW. Even if energy for bitcoin mining was 100% renewable, companies and governments will still be concerned about its perceived association with climate change. PoS coins (soon to include ETH) should benefit, but whether this positive will overcome the negative for the industry as a whole is perhaps less certain.
332  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: April 28, 2022, 05:45:50 PM
I feel that Djokovic has let overconfidence sink into him, and he’s forgotten that as an athlete he needs to constantly work on himself and his game, and furthermore he allowed himself to be dragged in this vaccination drama which could have been avoided. Also I feel that he needs to go back to the basics and stop making excuses and work on himself and only return when he’s 100% fit, because I like him when he’s at his best and not like this where he’s just making excuses.

I don't know, that doesn't sound like Djokovic. He is one of the ultimate competitors, I don't think he ever really loses through overconfidence, and he's built his whole career on ruthlessly maintaining his physical form, so I don't think he needs to work on himself. And he's well-used to dealing with pressure and being the centre of attention, he's had that most of his career. The only time I think the pressure may have got to him was the US Open final last year, on the verge of both the calendar slam and (what was then) a record 21st slam in total. But in general, he's well able to cope with it.

But yes, I'd agree that whenever he's in a bad situation, he always starts making excuses or more often, mid-match, feigning injury.
333  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2021/22 Round of 16! on: April 28, 2022, 05:39:26 PM
UEFA Champions League - Qualify for final

Liverpool 1.02

Manchester City FC 1.17

Real Madrid 3.50

Villarreal 8.90

Quotes of Liverpool and Villarreal look fair. But City and Real? 1.17 for City with only one goal advantage and a decisive game at the Santiago Bernabéu?  Huh
Plus, you can look at it from the other side: can Real Madrid, having three attempts, pass City once in the current conditions? If so, then the odds of 3.5 (>3) are unreasonable.

Liverpool did a supremely professional job in what was a trickier tie than it looked, and yes they look very likely now to reach the final.
Real vs Man City is certainly a lot more closely balanced than those odds suggest. If a first leg ends 4-3, then how can anyone really write-off the team that scored three and say they won't win the return match? Of course Real will be under considerable pressure, and of course beating Man City anywhere is a tough ask, but really, those odds do look quite extreme.
334  Economy / Economics / Re: How Capitalism defeated socialism? on: April 28, 2022, 05:33:43 PM
We are selfish and therefore capitalism suits us the best.

I think I'd probably qualify that, we are partly selfish and therefore democratic capitalism suits us the best.

Pure socialism doesn't work, because it relies on everyone being totally selfless. But they aren't, so the system is very easy to exploit.
Pure capitalism in practice would be almost indistinguishable from pure socialism in practice... winner becomes fabulously wealthy, majority of the population are so poor that they struggle to survive.

What makes things work is democracy (however imperfect it may be). This is because it provides an essential counterweight against extremist ideology. People often disagree quite vehemently about how governments should behave, and the extent to which they should work for the populace against the extent to which they should enable businesses to flourish... but it's generally simply a question of degree. Most people would agree that any system that lacks a counterweight would be a terrible idea, and cause a lot of suffering.
335  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Donald Trumps’ Truth Social Media: For Freedom of Speech or Politics on: April 28, 2022, 05:20:38 PM
The digital world are troubled by a suspicion that Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter is a calculated business plot to merge with Donald Trumps Truth Social.

He could simply rescind Trump's Twitter ban though, right? Seems a lot less effort than setting up a complex merger with "Donald Trump's version of the Truth trumps the actual true Truth because Donald Trump's Truth Social is controlled by Donald Trump" (or whatever it's called). Anyway, "Truth" is quite the Damascene conversion, isn't it? For a guy who told over 30,000 lies in his one 4-year term in office.
336  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2021/22 Round of 16! on: April 27, 2022, 04:15:30 PM

I also think so, a team as big as Liverpool won't have much effect on home or away matches. I think with the quality that Liverpool have it is very possible for them to be able to win the game in the first and also the away game in the second leg.

Predictably, Liverpool will win. I feel confident that liverpool's quality is far above villareal. It's just that Liverpol must be wary of Villareal's counterattack. In addition, Liverpool must be able to make a lot of goals and should not be conceded. If that happens then Leg 2 of course Liverpool will feel more comfortable to compete. Of course, the host factor will affect the player's mentality. I don't believe the away game will be easier for Liverpool in the second leg.

Liverpool should certainly be the favourites, yes, and I'd expect them to go through to the final. But I don't think Villareal should be underestimated, remember they have got through to a Champions League semi-final, and that doesn't happen by accident. And in particular, remember that they knocked out Juventus in the round of 16, and knocked out Bayern in the quarters. Any team that can knock out those two is capable of winning the tournament. So yes, Liverpool are favourites, but it's unlikely to be easy for them.
337  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: April 27, 2022, 08:18:48 AM
Here's a question for you...  So you think the guy who gets pole in the next GP will also win the race or is it really that close between RBR and Ferrari that the guy who gets the pole doesn't win the race at any given GP.  That was my 'secret market'.  Lol.  I was starting to think Ferrari would be so ahead from the rest that betting on 'winner of race is from pole position' every GP would give more than 50% win rate for the whole season combined.

I think it's close enough that the one who gets pole won't necessarily win the GP. Of course it depends on the track, though. And it also depends on the gap in qualifying. If someone gets pole by a couple of thousandths, then that's different to if someone takes pole by half a second. I haven't looked at the stats, but I'd guess that 'winner of race is from pole' would be well above 50% most seasons, but not so clear-cut this season. As we're at the start of a new era, everything is a bit uncertain, and I'd wait a couple more races for it all to calm down and patterns to start to emerge. But who knows? My betting record isn't fantastic. Cheesy
338  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2021/22 Round of 16! on: April 27, 2022, 08:06:08 AM
It was a real battle! I don't remember teams playing with so many goals in the final rounds... Honestly, I thought Real would win, but Man City managed bravely in this game... I hope the return match will be no less dramatic! I'm sure Man City will be very difficult in Madrid!

Man City just didn't finish the game with more goals, because they didn't take advantage of the several clear scoring opportunities they had. They had been able to set up the playoffs if they had scored two or three more, and they had opportunities to do so.

Now, it will be more difficult in Madrid. Real Madrid have already shown that they don't give up, no matter what result is on the scoreboard. That's why Man City will have to fight even harder to overcome Real Madrid.

It was quite incredible how Real kept coming back, three times Man City had a two-goal advantage, and three times Real pulled it back to a single goal. Man City will definitely not be happy about this result, arguably it now makes Real favourites for the tie when we return to Madrid.

But of course that will mean the pressure is on Real to secure the win at home, and City can just defend and try to hit them on the break. It's very finely-balanced. And of course we remember the previous round, where Real played Chelsea... and Real won in England, but then lost back at home in Spain in the second leg and nearly went out of the competition.
339  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: April 27, 2022, 08:01:46 AM
I take all excuses with a pinch of salt now as far as Djokovic is concerned, he hasnt
handled himself in a positive way this year.

As regards other big name players, Nadal and Medvedev - Nadal has said he will "Try" to
play at Madrid and Medvedev is back practicing, you see there is nothing like the pull of
the GS to get the big guns out and about.

I'd definitely agree that what Djokovic says and does is sometimes very different from the truth, as can be seen with his notorious feigning of injuries whenever he gets into trouble in a big match... followed invariably by a miraculous recovery once he's had a break and time to disrupt his opponent's momentum. Probably the illness is just an excuse, yes.

And for Nadal and Medvedev the stakes are pretty high, they need to be back for the French Open. Nadal because it's his best chance of another slam, and going 22-20 over Djokovic, and knowing that if he doesn't win it, Djokovic is most likely to win and go level 21-21 in slams with him. And Medvedev because as it stands he won't play Wimbledon, and so will lose out on a huge potential haul of ranking points there, so he needs to make the most he can at Roland Garros.
340  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: April 26, 2022, 12:52:39 PM
I didn't why I feel Tottenham Hotspur will still go to the champions League even though arsenal are now topping them with two points and are doing better than them in the league band current form, maybe is because they got Antonio Conte who is a winner and is very experienced or because they got a frontline that in Harry Kane, Son and kuluvenski who are far more superior than the whole arsenal attacking players but with all this, Arsenal are still topping them with two point, the strong problem Tottenham have right now is they will still play Liverpool and the good news they got is that they are also going to play the Gunners.
The game against Arsenal will be decisive in my opinion, and it will be played at Tottenham. that would be an advantage for Tottenham. from the game the two teams are very balanced and Arsenal have now also risen after they lost 3 times in a row Arsenal were able to rise and win in 2 matches against big teams like Chelsea and also Manchester United.
I think the chances of these two teams to be able to finish in 4th position in the final standings and get UCL tickets are still 50-50. still have the same chance.

I'd agree that it's 50-50, it's impossible to tell them apart really. For a long time it looked like Arsenal were all-but-guaranteed fourth place, but then they started throwing points away all over the place, and it looked like they'd blown their chance... but now they are back and winning tougher games. I have absolutely no idea which of them will finish fourth. The only thing I'm confident about is that Man U won't make the top four.
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