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661  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Say NO to smoke detectors! on: February 03, 2022, 03:21:18 PM
It's an unrelated subject, but I saw one of those pro-vaccination clowns posting some so-called "data" on another P&S thread yesterday. Can't remember exactly who or where. But they made some stupid argument that actually undermined their own point.

Quote from: someone yesterday
100 infections: 80 of these people are vaccinated, 20 are not.

Stupid, right? To convert it into smoke detector language, it would be:

100 fires: 80 of these homes had smoke detectors, 20 did not.

So the obvious conclusion is that these so-called data people have it all wrong.
Having a smoke detector means you are 4x more likely to contract a fire, with severe symptoms, or maybe even an asymptomatic fire like one that starts in a waste paper basket but then gets put out accidentally before anyone notices when someone drops an open can of coke in it ppppfffssstt.

Anyway, smoke detectors, right? Those things are clearly unsafe.

662  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: February 03, 2022, 03:05:52 PM
Financially, Barcelona is 20 years behind Real Madrid. Real Madrid had at the time the debt problem that Barcelona has now and ended up selling their training facility in the center of Madrid to solve it. I don't know what assets Barcelona have to get out of debt now. As for the team, I'm glad to see that Real Madrid is once again putting together a squad capable of being the first not only in Spain but also in Europe.

Barca are definitely in big financial trouble that will hamper them for years to come. But really the whole model of elite football is broken. The amount that clubs pay out in transfer fees and wages is just absurd. If football was working properly, as a game, then a club as big as Barca would be making huge profits all the time. But the situation is that the rewards for success are so high that teams will throw all the money they have at it in order to gamble on success, which inflates fees, inflates wages, inflates the problem.

Football is the biggest game in the world. How can one of the biggest clubs possibly be in this state? It needs to be addressed somehow (and super league is not the answer!).
663  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: February 03, 2022, 02:59:52 PM
With 2 games remaining Ecuador are 4 points ahead of 5th place Peru. And one of two games of Peru is with Uruguay which is in 4th place with 22 points. Which results a guarantee of point dropping by 4th or 5th one on MD17. Which makes sure Ecuador will qualify no matter what's there result will be.

I think they've nearly qualified, but not quite. If Peru beat Uruguay, and then both Uruguay and Peru win their other game, then Peru 27pts (above Ecuador), Uruguay 25pts (same as Ecuador).
But of course Ecuador have a huge goal difference advantage, so barring some ridiculous 10-0 collapse, they will qualify.
664  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Argument against vaccines quite flawed on: February 03, 2022, 02:50:24 PM
would you change the uncertainty about the vaccine being unsafe for the uncertainty about the virus being equally unknown and certainly unsafe short term??

People who are uncertain about taking the vaccine should look at the data. Vaccines have been available for over a year, now. The protection they confer against both severe disease and also any level of infection is quite clear. Once you look at and understand the data, then the decision should be obvious.

However many people are already convinced, and have been since the start, that the vaccines are unsafe and full of nanobots or miniaturised 5G masts or a tiny robot Bill Gates who will rewrite their DNA, or other such nonsense. These people will disregard all data as their decision has already been reached.

I suppose there is a third set of people who are in poor health, with pre-existing conditions, for whom even a safe vaccine could be dangerous. These people should take the advice of professionals on a case-by-case basis.
665  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Facebook Bans American Trucker 'Convoy to DC 2022' Page With 139,000 Followers on: February 03, 2022, 07:57:02 AM
Facebook preventing the people from seeing American Trucker and Canadian truckers protesting this legislation is like having a Chinese authoritarian government.

Do you really think that? Just wondering - are you also one of those people who complains that being asked to wear a face mask in public during a respiratory pandemic is exactly the same as the experience of Jews in Nazi Germany?


neil yong a rock Star protested against Rogan be banned from Spotify. upon checking Young's background turned out he is being paid by Pfizer CEO and big pharmas.

Right, okay. Neil Young (and presumably also Joni Mitchell?) are sleeper agents for BiG PhArMa... they've each had a 50 year career in the music industry, but apparently this is all a front, and actually they've each spent half a century pretending to be music artists, when in fact they are undercover drug company reps? Sounds plausible.  Roll Eyes
666  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Covid-19 booster on: February 02, 2022, 07:54:45 PM
What kind of problem you have solved? Cheesy Updated your vaccine certificate validity date? If you think that having a vaccine or booster saves you from covid, then I have bad news for you. When was the last time you have seen daily covid case statistics? Does the part "among confirmed cases  <insert number> were vaccinated" bother you? It wont be a surprise, if you dont have symptoms and make a covid test, that your results will be positive. You are still a ticking bomb.

"among confirmed cases  <insert number> were vaccinated" is, by itself, utterly irrelevant. You need to consider the number of confirmed cases as a proportion of total people vaccinated, and then compare that with number of confirmed cases amongst unvaccinated people as a proportion of total unvaccinated people.

If you live in a society where say 90% of people are vaccinated, then you'd expect most people who contract the virus to be vaccinated, even if vaccines largely prevent infection. This is basic maths. You may find the first visualisation on this page useful.

Example:
100 infections: 80 of these people are vaccinated, 20 are not.
But if 90% of the population is vaccinated, this means that vaccines protect against infection.

The actual data show that vaccines are protective against severe symptoms, yes, and this is the most important factor... but the vaccines are also protective to an extent against infection.
667  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: February 02, 2022, 07:46:08 PM
Newcastle United certainly will not let that happen this season because they also have the chance to stay in the Premier League next season. Newcastle will face Everton for the next match where victory is the target they must achieve. Norwich vs Crystal Palace will also determine Newcastle's chances of getting out of the relegation zone, so they will fight as much as possible to avoid relegation this season.

We are talking about a team that still has 17 unfinished match to finish the season (Newcastle). We can expect some changes in the table about who will stay, who will be relegated and who will qualify for the Champions League, Europa League and win the Premier League. So everything is still possible at this time.

Yeah. I suppose the difference at the bottom of the table is that no-one is scoring many points down there, so maybe 2 or 3 wins is all you need to lift you out of the drop zone. The only question for Newcastle is how quickly their new players all gel together as a team, and whether they can counter the negative mentality that comes from being a losing team, and change that into some confidence.
668  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2021/2022 on: February 02, 2022, 05:45:47 PM
He was a Tottenham and England regular, playing excellent football but then something went wrong and his form dipped only to never recover. What do you think actually went wrong with Alli?

I think the fundamental cause is that players aren't just players, they're also people. And people have all sorts of problems. The distance in elite sport between being excellent and being mediocre is very small. If anything occurs to knock your concentration, or your confidence, or your fitness, or any sort of physical or mental well-being, then it can make all the difference. And as for how you get that level back again, well, it depends on the situation and on the person... some will get back to their best, some won't. For Alli this move to Everton is a great opportunity, he can help to save them from relegation and become a hero... will it happen? We have no idea. Maybe his first game for them will give us some clues where he is physically and mentally.
669  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: February 02, 2022, 05:41:29 PM
Seeing the news of Greenwood's release even though on bail, it can still be interpreted that there is still a suspicion of innocence to him.  On the other hand the condition of the team is not doing well with the mistakes he made, the sponsors of Man United condemned his actions.  And although even being released on bail would be difficult for United to keep him, the terms of his contract could be suspended forever.

The investigations are continuing, and this certainly wouldn't do anything to help team spirit at Man United, and that was one of their big problems... it is getting quite difficult to see them finishing this campaign in a Champions League spot. As for Greenwood personally, it seems this is effectively the end of his career... unless he is actually innocent and is cleared of all charges, but given the way things have gone so far, that seems quite an unlikely outcome.
670  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Son of Omicron is here. on: February 02, 2022, 05:12:15 PM
a new variant called "Son of Omicron" which is more contagious and silent than the previous variant (omicron).

That's a moronic sensationalist name, typical of the Daily Mail to put it in a headline.
It may be very contagious, but early data suggest it is no more severe than Omicron, which is known to be milder (on average) than previous widespread variants.


will this be a variant of covid that will kill more people?

Doubtful if most people are already vaccinated or have already contracted Omicron.


Will there be more variants of the coronavirus in the future?

Yes. The more of a virus is in circulation, the more variants arise through random mutation and natural selection.


To be honest, I was already on 2 doses of vaccine a few months ago and didn't think about getting a booster vaccine which is recommended by the government.
I don't think about fighting new virus variants by using vaccines. I am currently thinking of letting my body's immunity naturally fight the new variants of the coronavirus.

The data are very clear that vaccine protection wanes over time. I've presented charts demonstrating this previously. Your best action is to take the booster.
671  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: February 02, 2022, 05:05:11 PM
^We had a discussion about Medvedev improving his game play and mental stability few days ago. I said that I still think he is mentally not prepared just that he managed to improve his game so much so we don't see that unstable side of him that often. This just confirmed it for me, he is still the same prickly looser who always has a problem with something when he is not winning. It was the same crowd/ref/ball kids in first 2 sets and there was no problems. After he started loosing he took it out on all of them. Good player, but needs to work on his behavior a lot.

Did you guys see his face while listening to speeches on award ceremony after the match? He looked bored and even made some grimaces during speeches. I have a feeling Nadal tried to gave him advice at that moment but he did not want to listen. Real Champions are conducting themselves as champions even when loosing.

Maybe he is even too honest and just don't thinks about his answers. Remember his interview on full court after semi final victory. The crowd did not like him much and he got boos for mentioning Djokovic and than Courier tried to set him up to win them over. He answered in a worst possible way to all those questions. Last one was if he will watch Barty play final and he answered no, that is the time I am eating supper. Then Courier lost patience and said to him something like "C'mon man I am trying to set you up to win them over and you are not doing yourself any favours". And then Medvedev finally got it, smiled and said something like he will watch on mobile while eating.

I think a lot of players start to complain when matches begin to run away from them. But one difference with Medvedev is I don't think he cares what the fans think of him, he is there to win the tennis match and couldn't care less about the fans. And if the fans don't like him, and start cheering for his opponent, then it's kind of understandable that his attitude afterwards in the press conference is quite dismissive and confrontational... I'm sure he knew exactly what he was doing when he said having a meal was more important than watching Barty, he was simply saying to the fans: 'You don't like me? Well, f*ck you, I don't like you either.' Some elite sports players are just like that, it may even be part of the reason he is a top player... maybe without that attitude, he wouldn't be as good.

But it's quite telling that when Courier was finally explicit about the question of his relation to the fans, he realised he'd taken it far enough, and so relented a bit rather than go to an extreme. I don't think any of it was clumsy or accidental, he was well aware of the effect his responses would have.
672  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: February 02, 2022, 04:59:53 PM
Before the takeover, I didn't really mind who got relegated. But now I hope that Newcastle go down. I know that football is all about money, but it's just not fair on the other relegation strugglers if one team can simply buy themselves out of trouble. And I do think it will be tough anyway for all those new players at Newcastle to integrate and start the club on a winning path. They do still have a decent chance of going down, despite all the money flying about.
673  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: February 01, 2022, 04:57:01 PM
I hope Eddie Howe will escape Newcastle from relegation with the few new signings, I think once these new players are well integrated into the team, they will form a formidable team

Well, this is the issue. Newcastle this January is pure panic-buying. They were sinking towards relegation, but now they've brought in a lot of new players. It can be very difficult to integrate a lot of new players into a struggling team in mid-season. Even if it takes a month to get them into a cohesive team, that's a month that Newcastle don't have. I do still think it's likely that they'll get relegated.
674  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How effective is covid vaccine in protecting against contacting the virus on: February 01, 2022, 04:47:45 PM
Nice example of the 'scissors method' of creating a point to make.

It's really not something to get outraged about, and it's not likely to be something that would encourage anyone who didn't want to get vaccinated to 'switch sides'. It's simply one study that has presented some interesting findings. It is extremely unlikely to change anything, and I can't see any hidden agenda here at all. It doesn't have anything to say about the question of serious side effects, simply that some instances of mild side-effects might be psychological in origin.

If someone doesn't want the vaccine 'because blood clots', then this does nothing whatsoever to change their mind.
The people whose mind it might change simply don't exist, these are the (hypothetical) people who think serious side effects are vanishingly unlikely, and are vaccine-hesitant simply because they don't want to get a brief headache.

It's simply not the case that every single study or piece of research ever conducted has some sinister underlying motive.


Writing off 'side-effects' of the jab to psychological issues because people were afraid of them is exactly the 'nocebo effect' that I saw

People are afraid of blood clots. And I'll concede that some people may for some reason be scared of a headache. But I'd argue that the subset of people who aren't scared of blood clots but are scared of headaches is so small as to effectively be nonexistent.
675  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How effective is covid vaccine in protecting against contacting the virus on: February 01, 2022, 11:06:56 AM
The Covidian Cult has 'new science' which they are calling 'nocebo'.  The basic idea is that if 'believe' in the so-called 'vaccine' then it will work.

No, that's not true. The 'nocebo' effect that has been in the news recently says absolutely nothing about vaccine efficacy. You're not stupid, so I'll assume you're just being a little disingenuous here.

It's simply the results of a study that show an interesting manifestation of the placebo effect. This relates specifically to individuals who experience mild side-effects after taking the Covid vaccine. I don't have the precise figures to hand, but it's something like 45% of people who have the Covid vaccine experience mild side effects... what the study shows is that around 30% of people who are told they are having the Covid vaccine, but in fact are simply receiving an inactive salt solution still experience the same side effects. So it would appear that a sizeable proportion of people who experience mild side effects (headache, fatigue etc) after receiving the Covid jab are not actually suffering from a side-effect, but rather are suffering due to their anticipation of suffering. It's nothing earth-shatteringly important, simply an interesting (if, in retrospect, predictable) observation. It says nothing about vaccine efficacy, and nothing about rare but serious side-effects.
676  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 31, 2022, 03:56:27 PM
Medvedev has a chance to secure No.1 for a week or two, in Acapulco, and he is a favorite there, since it is a hard surface now
last season, as seasons before, Medvedev has no points on clay surface, best of last season SF in Monte Carlo, while Djokovic has a lot to defend, and with Nadal back in shape, Medvedev has a chance to stay No.1 until US Open

Whilst the Covid vaccine rules of various countries can affect Djokovic's chances of winning more slams and catching up with Nadal, these restrictions could also have a huge effect on whether he can maintain the #1 ranking.
It's not just that he has a lot of ranking points to defend, there is also the question of whether he will actually be able to defend them at all. Depending on how this plays out, there is a decent chance of Medvedev getting #1.
677  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Say NO to smoke detectors! on: January 31, 2022, 03:24:42 PM
The benefits of smoke detectors very clearly outweighs the costs of smoke detectors in every household, by a very large margin. Further, smoke detectors are not intrusive. Unless there is a fire (or the battery is running low), most people will not even notice the presence of a smoke detector.
They run on RADIATION!
No they don't. I am not aware of any evidence to support this (including the revised claim that smoke detectors emit radiation).

Yes, they do, they contain Americium, and that's not even proper America, it's some cheap knock-off country, you can tell by the 'ium' at the end, just like 'pandemonium' is nothing like an actual panda. In the good ole days of Trump these fake Americiums would have been stopped at the border, but nowadays Biden lets them through, just like he let through Bill Gates and the Wuhan Clan (or so-called Covid), which is a fake Chinese knock-off Wu-Tang Clan. If you recall, proper Wu-Tang warned us of the dangers of taking the Covid vaccine in their famous song 'Protect Ya Neck' (I'll be stickin' pins in your head like a f- nurse), but Wuhan Clan of Bill Gates says we have to take the vaccine. But I don't know how we got onto Covid and vaccines, this is supposed to be about smoke detectors.
678  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 31, 2022, 07:40:39 AM
it would practically mean that he gives up tennis.
I really don't believe he's Djokovic going to throw away his great career because he does not want to be vaccinated. Wimbledon will certainly not be able to play without the vaccine there the rules are even more rigorous and clear. US open probably will do the same rule.

I don't think there's any chance of him getting vaccinated - that has to be the least likely outcome.

It may be that he can't play at the French. Wimbledon may be okay for him though, I don't know. We are relaxing restrictions here in the UK... but certainly if he's been banned from Australia and France, there will be some pressure to prevent him coming here to the UK, too. US I don't know, probably depends on the situation at the time. And there is of course the chance that If Omicron fades away and everywhere around the world starts to drop restrictions, maybe he can even play in France... it's probably too early right now to make a definite call on any of them, it's just that as it stands at the moment, France is a no.
679  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 30, 2022, 04:47:01 PM
I'm really looking forward to see Djoko get in he next GS

Well... potentially more drama to come. I believe France are cracking down on the unvaccinated, they said a couple of weeks ago that "all athletes have to be vaccinated"... so unless that changes, in a few months' time we could be watching Rafa win his 22nd (22nd Slam I mean, not 22nd French open... although he's not far off!).


https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jan/17/djokovics-french-open-title-defence-in-doubt-over-covid-pass-ruling
680  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: January 30, 2022, 03:11:31 PM
What a brilliant final that was, an all time great match!


I would guess that only the most loyal Nadal fans expected him to be able to do this after he lost the second set in such a close and dramatic way. I have to say though that nadal can thank Medvedev 100 times for throwing the match away. Medvedev was 2-0 sets up and he already had 3 break points again in the second set while Nadal was serving, but then he somehow stopped playing aggressively and he gave away all those 3 break points in a very weird way in my opinion. After that the momentum changed and Medvedev was not the same anymore.

I think it's hard on Medvedev to say he threw it away. Rafa, Djokovic and Federer can't ever be written off, even 2 sets down in a slam final. I think it was much more Nadal winning it than Medvedev losing it. Medvedev would have beaten everyone else (except maybe someone who might have wanted to play but got deported).



my tennis betting record is not great Cheesy

Well, I got the women's and men's winner right, and made a little bit of profit... so my betting record is improving a bit, even if the women's winner wasn't remotely surprising and the men's winner wasn't a huge shock either... so it's not exactly a proud achievement, but I'll take what I can get!
Is 2022 my year for tennis betting? Cheesy
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